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Mối quan hệ giữa thâm hụt ngân sách và thâm hụt thương mại Việt Nam - 24


Tác động của LS tới TM


Wald Test: Equation: EQ0TM




Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

t-statistic

0.441957

30

0.6617

F-statistic

0.195326

(1, 30)

0.6617

Chi-square

0.195326

1

0.6585

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Mối quan hệ giữa thâm hụt ngân sách và thâm hụt thương mại Việt Nam - 24


Null Hypothesis: (C(26)+C(27)+C(28))/(1-C(23)-C(24)

-C(25))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.


(C(26) + C(27) + C(28)) / (1 - C(23) - C(24) - C(25)) 0.033881 0.076661


Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của TG tới TM


Wald Test: Equation: EQ0TM

Test Statistic Value df Probability


t-statistic -0.299326 30 0.7668

F-statistic 0.089596 (1, 30) 0.7668

Chi-square 0.089596 1 0.7647



Null Hypothesis: (C(29)+C(30)+C(31))/(1-C(23)-C(24)

-C(25))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.


(C(29) + C(30) + C(31)) / (1 - C(23) - C(24) - C(25)) -0.020014 0.066865


Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của GDP tới TM


Wald Test: Equation: EQ0TM

Test Statistic Value df Probability


t-statistic 1.059816 30 0.2977

F-statistic 1.123210 (1, 30) 0.2977

Chi-square 1.123210 1 0.2892



Null Hypothesis: (C(32)+C(33)+C(34))/(1-C(23)-C(24)

-C(25))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.


(C(32) + C(33) + C(34)) / (1 - C(23) - C(24) -

C(25)) 0.006064 0.005722


Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của NS tới LS


Wald Test: System: eq0ls

Test Statistic Value df Probability


Chi-square 0.786487 1 0.3752



Null Hypothesis: (C(39)+C(40)+C(41))/(1-C(45)-C(46)

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(39) + C(40) + C(41)) / (1 - C(45) - C(46) - C(47))

1.071494

1.208214

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.





Wald Test:



System: eq0ls



Test Statistic Value

df

Probability

Chi-square 2.505330

1

0.1135


Null Hypothesis: (C(42)+C(43)+C(44))/(1-C(45)-C(46)

-C(47))=0



Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(42) + C(43) + C(44)) / (1 - C(45) - C(46) - C(47))


6.278293


3.966514

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.



-C(47))=0






Tác động của TM tới LS








Tác động của TG tới LS


Wald Test:

System: eq0ls


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

1.625200

1

0.2024


Null Hypothesis: (C(48)+C(49)+C(50))/(1-C(45)-C(46)

-C(47))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(48) + C(49) + C(50)) / (1 - C(45)

- C(46) - C(47))


1.209781


0.948972

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của GDP tới LS

Wald Test: System: eq0ls


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

1.598944

1

0.2061

Null Hypothesis: (C(51)+C(52)+C(53))/(1-C(45)-C(46)

-C(47))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:

Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(51) + C(52) + C(53)) / (1 - C(45)

- C(46) - C(47))


-0.104327


0.082505

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của NS tới TG

Wald Test: System: %system


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

0.335376

1

0.5625


Null Hypothesis: (C(58)+C(59)+C(60))/(1-C(67)-C(68)

-C(69))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(58) + C(59) + C(60)) / (1 - C(67)

- C(68) - C(69))


-0.800533


1.382334

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


System: %system


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

0.101206

1

0.7504


Null Hypothesis: (C(61)+C(62)+C(63))/(1-C(67)-C(68)

-C(69))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(61) + C(62) + C(63)) / (1 - C(67)

- C(68) - C(69))


-1.324481


4.163343

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của LS tới TG


Wald Test:

System: %system


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

1.071133

1

0.3007

Null Hypothesis: (C(64)+C(65)+C(66))/(1-C(67)-C(68)

-C(69))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(64) + C(65) + C(66)) / (1 - C(67)

- C(68) - C(69))


-1.272599


1.229617

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.


Tác động của GDP tới TG


Wald Test:

System: %system


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

17.27795

1

0.0000

Null Hypothesis: (C(70)+C(71)+C(72))/(1-C(67)-C(68)

-C(69))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(70) + C(71) + C(72)) / (1 - C(67) - C(68) - C(69))

0.088450

0.021279

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.




Tác động của NS tới GDP

Wald Test:

System: %system




Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

6.917661

1

0.0085


Null Hypothesis: (C(77)+C(78)+C(79))/(1-C(89)-C(90)

-C(91))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:




Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.


(C(77) + C(78) + C(79)) / (1 - C(89) - C(90) - C(91))

17.97308

6.833496


Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.




Tác động của TM tới GDP




Wald Test: System: %system




Test Statistic Value df


Probability


Chi-square 4.968131 1


0.0258



Null Hypothesis: (C(80)+C(81)+C(82))/(1-C(89)-C(90)

-C(91))=0

Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value


Std. Err.

(C(80) + C(81) + C(82)) / (1 - C(89)

- C(90) - C(91))


42.56065



19.09465


Wald Test:




System: %system




Test Statistic Value


df

Probability

Chi-square 0.140640


1

0.7076


Null Hypothesis: (C(83)+C(84)+C(85))/(1-C(89)-C(90)

-C(91))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(83) + C(84) + C(85)) / (1 - C(89) - C(90) - C(91))

1.512557

4.033265

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.



Null Hypothesis Summary:


Tác động của LS tới GDP


Tác động của TG tới GDP



Wald Test:

System: %system


Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

137.3802

1

0.0000


Null Hypothesis: (C(86)+C(87)+C(88))/(1-C(89)-C(90)

-C(91))=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

(C(86) + C(87) + C(88)) / (1 - C(89) - C(90) - C(91))

12.18722

1.039783

Delta method computed using analytic derivatives.





Wald Test: System: sys04

Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

Chi-square

6.685190

3

0.0826


Null Hypothesis: C(4)=C(5)=C(6)=0 Null Hypothesis Summary:




Normalized Restriction (= 0)


Value

Std. Err.

C(4)


-1.205157

0.688229

C(5)


-0.165859

0.812019

C(6)


-0.504020

0.772049

Restrictions are linear in coefficients.




Wald Test: Equation: EQ0NS




Test Statistic

Value

df

Probability

F-statistic

2.228397

(3, 30)

0.1053

Chi-square

6.685190

3

0.0826

Phụ lục A-2h – Kiểm định quan hệ ngắn hạn Tác động của TM đến NS













Null Hypothesis: C(4)=C(5)=C(6)=0

Null Hypothesis Summary:


Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

C(4)

-1.205157

0.688229

C(5)

-0.165859

0.812019

C(6)

-0.504020

0.772049

Restrictions are linear in coefficients.




Wald Test:



System: sys04



Test Statistic Value

df

Probability

Chi-square 5.199159

3

0.1578


Null Hypothesis: C(7)=C(8)=C(9)=0



Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

C(7)

3.53E-05

0.302879

C(8)

-0.691108

0.458519

C(9)

0.577992

0.323836

Restrictions are linear in coefficients.




Wald Test:



Equation: EQ0NS



Test Statistic Value

df

Probability

F-statistic 1.733053

(3, 30)

0.1814

Chi-square 5.199159

3

0.1578


Null Hypothesis: C(7)=C(8)=C(9)=0



Null Hypothesis Summary:



Normalized Restriction (= 0)

Value

Std. Err.

C(7)

3.53E-05

0.302879

C(8)

-0.691108

0.458519

C(9)

0.577992

0.323836

Restrictions are linear in coefficients.



Tác động của LS đến NS

















Tác động của TG đến NS



Wald Test:

System: sys04




Test Statistic Value


df


Probability


Chi-square 4.808251


3


0.1864


Null Hypothesis: C(10)=C(11)=C(12)=0



Null Hypothesis Summary:




Normalized Restriction (= 0)


Value


Std. Err.


C(10)


-0.440495


0.308939

C(11)

0.049023

0.501640

C(12)

0.079436

0.331448


Restrictions are linear in coefficients.




Tác động của GDP đến NS



Wald Test:

System: sys04



Test Statistic Value


df


Probability


Chi-square 9.193344


3


0.0268


Null Hypothesis: C(13)=C(14)=C(15)=0 Null Hypothesis Summary:




Normalized Restriction (= 0)


Value


Std. Err.


C(13)


-0.015480


0.013248

C(14)

0.011627

0.011477

C(15)

0.023532

0.010286


Restrictions are linear in coefficients.



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Ngày đăng: 07/06/2022