PHỤ LỤC 1:TÍNH β CỦA CÁC CÔNG TY TĂNG TRƯỞNG
PHỤ LỤC 1.1: β CỦA CTCP PHÁT TRIỂN ĐẦU TƯ CÔNG NGHỆ FPT
Pi | Pm | Ri | Rm | Rf | Ri- Ri | Rm- Rm | (Ri- Ri ) (Rm- Rm ) | (Rm- Rm )2 | |
1/4/2010 | 85 | 508.2 | 6.25 | 1.03 | 5 | 2.635 | 0.2925 | 0.7707375 | 0.08555625 |
1/3/2010 | 80 | 503 | 2.56 | 3.31 | 5 | -1.055 | 2.5725 | -2.7139875 | 6.61775625 |
1/2/2010 | 78 | 486.9 | -5.45 | -5.82 | 5 | -9.065 | -6.5575 | 59.4437375 | 43.00080625 |
4/1/2010 | 82.5 | 517 | 5.77 | 0.41 | 5 | 2.155 | -0.3275 | -0.7057625 | 0.10725625 |
1/12/2009 | 78 | 514.9 | -3.11 | -8.33 | 5 | -6.725 | -9.0675 | 60.9789375 | 82.21955625 |
2/11/2009 | 80.5 | 561.7 | -3.71 | -1.28 | 5 | -7.325 | -2.0175 | 14.7781875 | 4.07030625 |
1/10/2009 | 83.6 | 569 | -3.02 | 3.89 | 5 | -6.635 | 3.1525 | -20.9168375 | 9.93825625 |
1/9/2009 | 86.2 | 547.7 | 12.98 | 13.8 | 5 | 9.365 | 13.0625 | 122.3303125 | 170.6289063 |
5/8/2009 | 76.3 | 481.3 | 15.78 | 11.93 | 5 | 12.165 | 11.1925 | 136.1567625 | 125.2720563 |
1/7/2009 | 65.9 | 430 | -0.9 | 0.84 | 5 | -4.515 | 0.1025 | -0.4627875 | 0.01050625 |
1/6/2009 | 66.5 | 426.4 | 17.7 | 26.68 | 5 | 14.085 | 25.9425 | 365.4001125 | 673.0133063 |
4/5/2009 | 56.5 | 336.6 | 22.83 | 16.27 | 5 | 19.215 | 15.5325 | 298.4569875 | 241.2585563 |
1/4/2009 | 46 | 289.5 | 8.24 | 16.88 | 5 | 4.625 | 16.1425 | 74.6590625 | 260.5803063 |
2/3/2009 | 42.5 | 247.7 | -9.77 | -16.74 | 5 | -13.385 | -17.4775 | 233.9363375 | 305.4630063 |
2/2/2009 | 47.1 | 297.5 | -2.89 | -5.04 | 5 | -6.505 | -5.7775 | 37.5826375 | 33.37950625 |
2/1/2009 | 48.5 | 313.3 | -5.09 | -0.44 | 5 | -8.705 | -1.1775 | 10.2501375 | 1.38650625 |
1/12/2008 | 51.1 | 314.7 | 0.59 | -9.72 | 5 | -3.025 | -10.4575 | 31.6339375 | 109.3593063 |
3/11/2008 | 50.8 | 348.6 | -16.17 | -23.28 | 5 | -19.785 | -24.0175 | 475.1862375 | 576.8403063 |
1/10/2008 | 60.6 | 454.4 | -26.81 | -18.14 | 5 | -30.425 | -18.8775 | 574.3479375 | 356.3600063 |
3/9/2008 | 82.8 | 555.1 | 84.41 | 24.16 | 5 | 80.795 | 23.4225 | 1892.420888 | 548.6135063 |
1/8/2008 | 44.9 | 447.1 | 37.73 | 9.16 | 5 | 34.115 | 8.4225 | 287.3335875 | 70.93850625 |
1/7/2008 | 32.6 | 409.6 | -14.66 | 0.42 | 5 | -18.275 | -0.3175 | 5.8023125 | 0.10080625 |
2/6/2008 | 38.2 | 407.9 | -3.05 | -3 | 5 | -6.665 | -3.7375 | 24.9104375 | 13.96890625 |
26/05/2008 | 39.4 | 420.5 | -33.45 | -19.29 | 5 | -37.065 | -20.0275 | 742.3192875 | 401.1007563 |
1/4/2008 | 59.2 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Trung bình | 3.615 | 0.7375 | Tổng | 5423.8992 | 4034.31425 | ||||
β=(Ri − Ri ) (Rm − Rm )= 1.34 (Rm − Rm )2 |
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PHỤ LỤC 1.2: β CỦA CTCP TẬP ĐOÀN HÕA PHÁT HPG
Pi | Pm | Ri | Rm | Rf | Ri- Ri | Rm- Rm | (Ri- Ri ) (Rm- Rm ) | (Rm- Rm )2 | |
1/4/2010 | 64 | 508.2 | 4.07 | 1.03 | 5 | 0.612917 | 0.2925 | 0.179278125 | 0.08555625 |
1/3/2010 | 61.5 | 503 | -1.6 | 3.31 | 5 | -5.05708 | 2.5725 | -13.00934688 | 6.61775625 |
1/2/2010 | 62.5 | 486.9 | 2.46 | -5.82 | 5 | -0.99708 | -6.5575 | 6.538373958 | 43.00080625 |
61 | 517 | -4.69 | 0.41 | 5 | -8.14708 | -0.3275 | 2.668169792 | 0.10725625 | |
1/12/2009 | 64 | 514.9 | -12.93 | -8.33 | 5 | -16.3871 | -9.0675 | 148.5898781 | 82.21955625 |
2/11/2009 | 73.5 | 561.7 | 6.52 | -1.28 | 5 | 3.062917 | -2.0175 | -6.179434375 | 4.07030625 |
1/10/2009 | 69 | 569 | 0.73 | 3.89 | 5 | -2.72708 | 3.1525 | -8.597130208 | 9.93825625 |
1/9/2009 | 68.5 | 547.7 | 14.17 | 13.8 | 5 | 10.71292 | 13.0625 | 139.937474 | 170.6289063 |
5/8/2009 | 60 | 481.3 | 16.5 | 11.93 | 5 | 13.04292 | 11.1925 | 145.9828448 | 125.2720563 |
1/7/2009 | 51.5 | 430 | 4.25 | 0.84 | 5 | 0.792917 | 0.1025 | 0.081273958 | 0.01050625 |
1/6/2009 | 49.4 | 426.4 | 19.61 | 26.68 | 5 | 16.15292 | 25.9425 | 419.0470406 | 673.0133063 |
4/5/2009 | 41.3 | 336.6 | 34.53 | 16.27 | 5 | 31.07292 | 15.5325 | 482.6400781 | 241.2585563 |
1/4/2009 | 30.7 | 289.5 | 25.82 | 16.88 | 5 | 22.36292 | 16.1425 | 360.9933823 | 260.5803063 |
2/3/2009 | 24.4 | 247.7 | -15.57 | -16.74 | 5 | -19.0271 | - 17.4775 | 332.545849 | 305.4630063 |
2/2/2009 | 28.9 | 297.5 | -3.34 | -5.04 | 5 | -6.79708 | -5.7775 | 39.27014896 | 33.37950625 |
2/1/2009 | 29.9 | 313.3 | 6.41 | -0.44 | 5 | 2.952917 | -1.1775 | -3.477059375 | 1.38650625 |
1/12/2008 | 28.1 | 314.7 | -6.02 | -9.72 | 5 | -9.47708 | - 10.4575 | 99.10659896 | 109.3593063 |
3/11/2008 | 29.9 | 348.6 | -40.32 | -23.28 | 5 | -43.7771 | - 24.0175 | 1051.416099 | 576.8403063 |
1/10/2008 | 50.1 | 454.4 | -18.8 | -18.14 | 5 | -22.2571 | - 18.8775 | 420.1580906 | 356.3600063 |
3/9/2008 | 61.7 | 555.1 | 19.57 | 24.16 | 5 | 16.11292 | 23.4225 | 377.4047906 | 548.6135063 |
1/8/2008 | 51.6 | 447.1 | 50.44 | 9.16 | 5 | 46.98292 | 8.4225 | 395.7136156 | 70.93850625 |
1/7/2008 | 34.3 | 409.6 | 5.86 | 0.42 | 5 | 2.402917 | -0.3175 | -0.762926042 | 0.10080625 |
2/6/2008 | 32.4 | 407.9 | -3.57 | -3 | 5 | -7.02708 | -3.7375 | 26.26372396 | 13.96890625 |
26/05/2008 | 33.6 | 420.5 | -21.13 | -19.29 | 5 | -24.5871 | - 20.0275 | 492.4178115 | 401.1007563 |
1/4/2008 | 42.6 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trung bình | 3.457083 | 0.7375 | Tổng | 4908.928625 | 4034.31425 | ||||
β=(Ri − Ri ) (Rm − Rm )= 1.22 (Rm − Rm )2 |
PHỤ LỤC 1.3: β CỦA CTCP VÀNG BẠC ĐÁ QUÝ PHÖ NHUẬN PNJ
Pi | Pm | Ri | Rm | Rf | Ri- Ri | Rm- Rm | (Ri- Ri ) (Rm- Rm ) | (Rm- Rm )2 | |
1/4/2010 | 58.5 | 508.2 | 6.36 | 1.03 | 5 | 0.9138462 | -4.6615385 | -4.259928994 | 21.72994083 |
1/3/2010 | 55 | 503 | 0.92 | 3.31 | 5 | -4.526154 | -2.3815385 | 10.77920947 | 5.671725444 |
1/2/2010 | 54.5 | 486.9 | -10.66 | -5.82 | 5 | -16.10615 | -11.511538 | 185.4066095 | 132.5155178 |
4/1/2010 | 61 | 517 | -2.4 | 0.41 | 5 | -7.846154 | -5.2815385 | 41.43976331 | 27.89464852 |
1/12/2009 | 62.5 | 514.9 | 0.81 | -8.33 | 5 | -4.636154 | -14.021538 | 65.00600947 | 196.6035408 |
2/11/2009 | 62 | 561.7 | -3.88 | -1.28 | 5 | -9.326154 | -6.9715385 | 65.01764024 | 48.60234852 |
1/10/2009 | 64.5 | 569 | -9.79 | 3.89 | 5 | -15.23615 | -1.8015385 | 27.44851716 | 3.245540828 |
1/9/2009 | 71.5 | 547.7 | 18.77 | 13.8 | 5 | 13.323846 | 8.10846154 | 108.0358941 | 65.74714852 |
5/8/2009 | 60.2 | 481.3 | 24.12 | 11.93 | 5 | 18.673846 | 6.23846154 | 116.496071 | 38.91840237 |
1/7/2009 | 48.5 | 430 | -6.73 | 0.84 | 5 | -12.17615 | -4.8515385 | 59.0730787 | 23.53742544 |
52 | 426.4 | 38.67 | 26.68 | 5 | 33.223846 | 20.9884615 | 697.3174172 | 440.5155178 | |
4/5/2009 | 37.5 | 336.6 | 0.54 | 16.27 | 5 | -4.906154 | 10.5784615 | -51.89955976 | 111.9038485 |
1/4/2009 | 37.3 | 289.5 | 14.07 | 11.26 | 5 | 8.6238462 | 5.56846154 | 48.02155562 | 31.00776391 |
23/03/2009 | 32.7 | 260.2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trung bình | 5.446 | 5.6915 | Tổng | 1367.882277 | 1147.893369 | ||||
β=(Ri − Ri ) (Rm − Rm )= 1.19 (Rm − Rm )2 |
PHỤ LỤC 1.4: β CỦA CTCP KHOAN VÀ DỊCH VỤ DẦU KHÍ PVD
Pi | Pm | Ri | Rm | Rf | Ri- Ri | Rm- Rm | (Ri- Ri ) (Rm- Rm ) | (Rm- Rm )2 | |
1/4/2010 | 58 | 508.2 | 1.75 | 1.03 | 5 | 2.21958333 | 0.2675 | 0.593738542 | 0.07 |
1/3/2010 | 57 | 503 | -2.56 | 3.31 | 5 | -2.0904167 | 2.5475 | -5.325336458 | 6.49 |
1/2/2010 | 58.5 | 486.9 | -17 | -5.82 | 5 | -16.550417 | -6.5825 | 108.9431177 | 43.33 |
4/1/2010 | 70.5 | 517 | -20.8 | 0.41 | 5 | -20.320417 | -0.3525 | 7.162946875 | 0.12 |
1/12/2009 | 89 | 514.9 | 1.14 | -8.33 | 5 | 1.60958333 | -9.0925 | -14.63513646 | 82.67 |
2/11/2009 | 88 | 561.7 | -7.37 | -1.28 | 5 | -6.9004167 | -2.0425 | 14.09410104 | 4.17 |
1/10/2009 | 95 | 569 | 0 | 3.89 | 5 | 0.46958333 | 3.1275 | 1.468621875 | 9.78 |
1/9/2009 | 95 | 547.7 | 20.3 | 13.8 | 5 | 20.7195833 | 13.0375 | 270.1315677 | 169.98 |
5/8/2009 | 79 | 481.3 | -1.25 | 11.93 | 5 | -0.7804167 | 11.1675 | -8.715303125 | 124.71 |
1/7/2009 | 80 | 430 | 5.96 | 0.84 | 5 | 6.42958333 | 0.0775 | 0.498292708 | 0.01 |
1/6/2009 | 75.5 | 426.4 | 4.86 | 26.68 | 5 | 5.32958333 | 25.9175 | 138.129476 | 671.72 |
4/5/2009 | 72 | 336.6 | 19 | 16.27 | 5 | 19.4795833 | 15.5075 | 302.0796385 | 240.48 |
1/4/2009 | 60.5 | 289.5 | 9.01 | 16.88 | 5 | 9.47958333 | 16.1175 | 152.7871844 | 259.77 |
2/3/2009 | 55.5 | 247.7 | -21.3 | -16.7 | 5 | -20.810417 | -17.5025 | 364.2343177 | 306.34 |
2/2/2009 | 70.5 | 297.5 | -13 | -5.04 | 5 | -12.490417 | -5.8025 | 72.47564271 | 33.67 |
2/1/2009 | 81 | 313.3 | 20.9 | -0.44 | 5 | 21.3695833 | -1.2025 | -25.69692396 | 1.45 |
1/12/2008 | 67 | 314.7 | -12.7 | -9.72 | 5 | -12.180417 | -10.4825 | 127.6812177 | 109.88 |
3/11/2008 | 76.7 | 348.6 | -18.1 | -23.3 | 5 | -17.670417 | -24.0425 | 424.8409927 | 578.04 |
1/10/2008 | 93.7 | 454.4 | -14 | -18.1 | 5 | -13.570417 | -18.9025 | 256.514801 | 357.30 |
3/9/2008 | 109 | 555.1 | 16.3 | 24.16 | 5 | 16.7995833 | 23.3975 | 393.068251 | 547.44 |
1/8/2008 | 93.7 | 447.1 | 23.9 | 9.16 | 5 | 24.4095833 | 8.3975 | 204.979476 | 70.52 |
1/7/2008 | 75.6 | 409.6 | 7.23 | 0.42 | 5 | 7.69958333 | -0.3425 | -2.637107292 | 0.12 |
2/6/2008 | 70.5 | 407.9 | -25.9 | -21.8 | 5 | -25.400417 | -22.5125 | 571.8268802 | 506.81 |
5/5/2008 | 95.1 | 521.3 | 12.3 | 0.06 | 5 | 12.7495833 | -0.7025 | -8.956582292 | 0.49 |
1/4/2008 | 84.7 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Trung bình | -0.47 | 0.763 | Tổng | 3345.543875 | 4125.38 | ||||
β=(Ri − Ri ) (Rm − Rm )= 0.81 (Rm − Rm )2 |
PHỤ LỤC 1.5: β CỦA CTCP THÉP VIỆT Ý VIS
Pi | Pm | Ri | Rm | Rf | Ri- Ri | Rm- Rm | (Ri- Ri ) (Rm- Rm ) | (Rm- Rm )2 | |
1/4/2010 | 63 | 508.2 | 20 | 1.03 | 5 | 14.33 | 0.27875 | 3.9944875 | 0.077701563 |
1/3/2010 | 52.5 | 503 | - 42.31 | 3.31 | 5 | -47.98 | 2.55875 | -122.768825 | 6.547201563 |
1/2/2010 | 91 | 486.9 | 5.2 | -5.82 | 5 | -0.47 | -6.57125 | 3.0884875 | 43.18132656 |
4/1/2010 | 86.5 | 517 | 7.45 | 0.41 | 5 | 1.78 | -0.34125 | -0.607425 | 0.116451563 |
1/12/2009 | 80.5 | 514.9 | - 32.92 | -8.33 | 5 | -38.59 | -9.08125 | 350.4454375 | 82.46910156 |
2/11/2009 | 120 | 561.7 | 9.09 | -1.28 | 5 | 3.42 | -2.03125 | -6.946875 | 4.125976563 |
1/10/2009 | 110 | 569 | 59.42 | 3.89 | 5 | 53.75 | 3.13875 | 168.7078125 | 9.851751563 |
1/9/2009 | 69 | 547.7 | 28.97 | 13.8 | 5 | 23.3 | 13.04875 | 304.035875 | 170.2698766 |
5/8/2009 | 53.5 | 481.3 | 79.53 | 11.93 | 5 | 73.86 | 11.17875 | 825.662475 | 124.9644516 |
1/7/2009 | 29.8 | 430 | -3.56 | 0.84 | 5 | -9.23 | 0.08875 | -0.8191625 | 0.007876563 |
1/6/2009 | 30.9 | 426.4 | 17.49 | 26.68 | 5 | 11.82 | 25.92875 | 306.477825 | 672.3000766 |
4/5/2009 | 26.3 | 336.6 | 7.79 | 16.27 | 5 | 2.12 | 15.51875 | 32.89975 | 240.8316016 |
1/4/2009 | 24.4 | 289.5 | 4.72 | 16.88 | 5 | -0.95 | 16.12875 | -15.3223125 | 260.1365766 |
2/3/2009 | 23.3 | 247.7 | -6.8 | -14.2 | 5 | -12.47 | -14.95125 | 186.4420875 | 223.5398766 |
3/2/2009 | 25 | 288.7 | 4.17 | -7.85 | 5 | -1.5 | -8.60125 | 12.901875 | 73.98150156 |
2/1/2009 | 24 | 313.3 | 2.56 | -0.44 | 5 | -3.11 | -1.19125 | 3.7047875 | 1.419076563 |
1/12/2008 | 23.4 | 314.7 | -7.51 | -9.72 | 5 | -13.18 | -10.47125 | 138.011075 | 109.6470766 |
3/11/2008 | 25.3 | 348.6 | 0.8 | -23.28 | 5 | -4.87 | -24.03125 | 117.0321875 | 577.5009766 |
1/10/2008 | 25.1 | 454.4 | - 39.23 | -18.14 | 5 | -44.9 | -18.89125 | 848.217125 | 356.8793266 |
3/9/2008 | 41.3 | 555.1 | 66.53 | 24.16 | 5 | 60.86 | 23.40875 | 1424.656525 | 547.9695766 |
1/8/2008 | 24.8 | 447.1 | 25.89 | 9.16 | 5 | 20.22 | 8.40875 | 170.024925 | 70.70707656 |
1/7/2008 | 19.7 | 409.6 | - 30.63 | 0.42 | 5 | -36.3 | -0.33125 | 12.024375 | 0.109726563 |
2/6/2008 | 28.4 | 407.9 | - 19.09 | -21.75 | 5 | -24.76 | -22.50125 | 557.13095 | 506.3062516 |
5/5/2008 | 35.1 | 521.3 | - 21.48 | 0.06 | 5 | -27.15 | -0.69125 | 18.7674375 | 0.477826563 |
1/4/2008 | 44.7 | 521 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trung bình | 5.67 | 0.7513 | Tổng | 5337.7609 | 4083.418263 | ||||
β=(Ri − Ri ) (Rm − Rm )= 1.31 (Rm − Rm )2 |
PHỤ LỤC 2: ĐỊNH GIÁ CỔ PHIẾU TĂNG TRƯỞNG THEO FCFF
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Mean | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | SS | |
Sales | 14,100,792 | 21,399,751 | 13,498,891 | 16,381,840 | 18,404,026 | 20,612,509 | 23,292,135 | 24,922,585 | 26,667,166 | 28,533,867 | 29,960,561 | |
COGS | 13,179,645 | 20,048,519 | 11,537,442 | 13,403,403 | 14,718,672 | 16,484,913 | 18,627,951 | 19,931,908 | 21,327,141 | 22,820,041 | 23,961,043 | |
Depreciation | 53,816 | 106,819 | 170,933 | 239,579 | 304,050 | 175,039 | 175,039 | 175,039 | 175,039 | 175,039 | 175,039 | 175,039 |
SG&A | 553,115 | 793,393 | 984,941 | 1,489,925 | 1,833,436 | 2,053,448 | 2,320,397 | 2,482,824 | 2,656,622 | 2,842,586 | 2,984,715 | |
Other Operating | ||||||||||||
Expenses | 6,634 | 26,015 | 28,868 | 101,853 | 152,222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Operating Income | 307,582 | 425,005 | 776,707 | 1,147,080 | 1,395,646 | 1,899,109 | 2,168,748 | 2,332,813 | 2,508,363 | 2,696,201 | 2,839,763 | |
NOPAT | 221,459 | 306,004 | 559,229 | 825,898 | 1,004,865 | 1,367,358 | 1,561,499 | 1,679,625 | 1,806,021 | 1,941,265 | 2,044,629 | |
Add: Depreciation | 53,816 142,136 | 106,819 246,629 | 170,933 486,954 | 239,579 708,045 | 304,050 810,070 | 175,039 597,415 | 175,039 675,079 | 175,039 722,335 | 175,039 772,898 | 175,039 827,001 | 175,039 175,039 | |
Less: CAPEX | ||||||||||||
Less: Change in NWC | 867,761 | -165,217 | 182,710 | 1,414,832 | -767,442 | 278,880 | 169,688 | 181,566 | 194,275 | 148,482 | ||
FCFF | -701,567 | 408,425 | 174,722 | -915,987 | 1,712,425 | 782,579 | 962,642 | 1,026,596 | 1,095,027 | 1,896,147 |
612,586 | 1,480,347 | 1,315,130 | 1,497,840 | 2,912,672 | 2,145,230 | 2,424,109 | 2,593,797 | 2,775,363 | 2,969,638 | 3,118,120 | ||
Change in NWC | 867,761 | -165,217 | 182,710 | 1,414,832 | -767,442 | 278,880 | 169,688 | 181,566 | 194,275 | 148,482 | ||
NWC/Sales | 4.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 10.4% 86.9% | ||||||
COGS/Sales | 93.5% | 93.7% | 85.5% | 81.8% | 80.0% | |||||||
SG&A/Sales | 3.9% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | |||||||
capex/sales | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 0.12 | ||||||
%sales | 0.52 | -0.37 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
Tax | 28.00% |
Growth in Sales 2010 | 12.00% |
Growth in Sales 2011 | 13.00% |
Growth in Sales 2012-2014 | 10.00% |
Steady State Growth | 5.00% |
Rwacc | 12.63% |
Ri | 16.95% |
Terminal Value | 27,143,518.01 |
PV of Terminal Value | 14,975,995.96 |
PVFCF(2010-2014) | 4,016,156.57 |
Enterprise Value | 18,992,152.53 |
Value of Debt | 6,677,493.00 |
Value of Equity | 12,314,659.53 |
Value of Equity(end march 2010) | 12,686,327.84 |
kd | 6.50% |
Volume | 140,976,214 |
Stock Value | 88934 |
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Mean | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | SS | |
Sales | 909,008 | 1,318,883 | 5,642,934 | 8,364,805 | 8,115,093 | 10,549,621 | 12,132,064 | 13,345,270 | 14,679,797 | 16,147,777 | 16,955,166 | |
COGS | 893,694 | 1,192,355 | 4,676,412 | 7,106,496 | 6,139,385 | 7,981,201 | 9,178,381 | 10,096,219 | 11,105,840 | 12,216,425 | 12,827,246 | |
Depreciation | 4,000 | 6,000 | 116,292 | 176,801 | 194,000 | 99,419 | 99,419 | 99,419 | 99,419 | 99,419 | 99,419 | 99,419 |
SG&A | 10,042 | 10,492 | 195,724 | 244,868 | 309,255 | 402,032 | 462,336 | 508,570 | 559,427 | 615,370 | 646,138 | |
Other Operating | ||||||||||||
Expenses | 671 | 904 | 23,791 | 9,650 | 15,447 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Operating Income | 601 | 109,132 | 630,715 | 826,990 | 1,457,006 | 2,066,970 | 2,391,929 | 2,641,063 | 2,915,112 | 3,216,565 | 3,382,364 | |
NOPAT | 433 | 78,575 | 454,115 | 595,433 | 1,049,044 | 1,488,219 | 1,722,189 | 1,901,566 | 2,098,880 | 2,315,926 | 2,435,302 | |
Add: Depreciation | 4,000 9,504 | 6,000 505 | 116,292 179,139 | 176,801 463,641 | 194,000 1,458,005 | 99,419 585,878 | 99,419 673,760 | 99,419 741,136 | 99,419 815,250 | 99,419 896,775 | 99,419 99,419 | |
Less: CAPEX | ||||||||||||
Less: Change in NWC | 83,547 | 1,858,315 | 725,552 | -1,720,381 | 1,118,946 | 298,686 | 228,993 | 251,892 | 277,081 | 152,395 | ||
FCFF | 523 | -1,467,047 | -416,959 | 1,505,420 | -117,187 | 849,161 | 1,030,855 | 1,131,157 | 1,241,489 | 2,282,907 |
-74,736 | 8,811 | 1,867,126 | 2,592,678 | 872,297 | 1,991,243 | 2,289,929 | 2,518,922 | 2,770,814 | 3,047,896 | 3,200,291 | ||
Change in NWC | 83,547 | 1,858,315 | 725,552 | -1,720,381 | 1,118,946 | 298,686 | 228,993 | 251,892 | 277,081 | 152,395 | ||
NWC/Sales | -8.2% | 0.7% | 33.1% | 31.0% | 10.7% | 18.9% | ||||||
COGS/Sales | 98.3% | 90.4% | 82.9% | 85.0% | 75.7% | 86.4% | ||||||
SG&A/Sales | 1.1% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | |||||||
capex/sales | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.06 1.05 | ||||||
%sales | 0.45 | 3.28 | 0.48 | -0.03 |
Tax | 28.00% |
Growth in Sales 2010 | 30.00% |
Growth in Sales 2011 | 15.00% |
Growth in Sales 2012- 2014 | 8.00% |
Terminal Value | 26,206,577.43 |
PV of Terminal Value | 14,080,003.72 |
PVFCF(2010-2014) | 2,634,522.87 |
Enterprise Value | 16,714,526.59 |
Value of Debt | 5,100,399.00 |
Steady State Growth | 5.00% |
Rwacc | 13.23% |
Ri | 15.88% |
kd | 6.50% |
Value of Equity | 11,614,127.59 |
Value of Equity(end march 2010) | 11,980,555.89 |
Volume | 196,363,998 |
Stock Value | 61012 |
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Mean | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | SS | |
Sales | 1,246,450 | 1,788,790 | 2,379,635 | 4,178,849 | 10,205,792 | 15,308,688 | 19,901,294 | 23,284,514 | 27,242,882 | 31,874,172 | 33,467,880 | |
COGS | 1,137,161 | 1,618,937 | 2,177,500 | 3,828,809 | 9,711,358 | 14,567,037 | 18,937,148 | 22,156,463 | 25,923,062 | 30,329,983 | 31,846,482 | |
Depreciation | 2,000 | 6832 | 7,719 | 36056 | 12,037 | 12,929 | 12,929 | 12,929 | 12,929 | 12,929 | 12,929 | 12,929 |
SG&A | 61,594 | 86,207 | 108,374 | 187,437 | 242,384 | 363,576 | 472,649 | 552,999 | 647,009 | 757,000 | 794,850 | |
Other Operating | ||||||||||||
Expenses | 475 | 475 | 148 | 922 | 860 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Operating Income | 45,220 | 76,339 | 85,894 | 125,625 | 239,153 | 365,146 | 478,569 | 562,123 | 659,882 | 774,260 | 813,619 | |
NOPAT | 32,558 | 54,964 | 61,844 | 90,450 | 172,190 | 262,905 | 344,569 | 404,729 | 475,115 | 557,467 | 585,806 | |
Add: Depreciation | 2,000 7,293 | 6,832 9,163 | 7,719 16,165 | 36,056 300,793 | 12,037 3,053 | 12,929 30,520 | 12,929 30,520 | 12,929 30,520 | 12,929 30,520 | 12,929 30,520 | 12,929 30,520 | |
Less: CAPEX | ||||||||||||
Less: Change in NWC | -36,673 | 592,565 | -376,127 | -3,422 | 726,305 | 260,121 | 191,622 | 224,198 | 262,312 | 30,520 | ||
FCFF | 89,306 | -539,167 | 201,840 | 184,596 | -480,991 | 66,858 | 195,515 | 233,326 | 277,564 | 537,695 |
-35,580 | -72,253 | 520,312 | 144,185 | 140,763 | 867,068 | 1,127,189 | 1,318,811 | 1,543,009 | 1,805,320 | 1,895,586 | ||
Change in NWC | -36,673 | 592,565 | -376,127 | -3,422 | 726,305 | 260,121 | 191,622 | 224,198 | 262,312 | 90,266 | ||
NWC/Sales | -2.9% | -4.0% | 21.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 5.7% 92.0% | ||||||
COGS/Sales | 91.2% | 90.5% | 91.5% | 91.6% | 95.2% | |||||||
SG&A/Sales | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | |||||||
capex/sales | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 0.74 | ||||||
%sales | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.76 | 1.44 |
Tax | 28.00% |
Growth in Sales 2010 | 50.00% |
Terminal Value | 6,704,422.91 |
PV of Terminal Value | 3,635,673.60 |
Growth in Sales 2011 | 30.00% |
Growth in Sales 2012- 2014 | 17.00% |
Steady State Growth | 5.00% |
Rwacc | 13.02% |
Ri | 15.61% |
kd | 6.50% |
PVFCF(2010-2014) | 55,709.77 |
Enterprise Value | 3,691,383.37 |
Value of Debt | 1,127,341.00 |
Value of Equity | 2,564,042.37 |
Value of Equity(end march 2010) | 2,643,711.28 |
Volume | 39,999,921 |
Stock Value | 66093 |
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Mean | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | SS | |
Sales | 1,071,501 | 1,348,770 | 2,738,605 | 3,728,746 | 4,096,781 | 5,325,815 | 6,124,688 | 6,920,897 | 7,820,614 | 8,837,293 | 9,279,158 | |
COGS | 976,101 | 1,152,589 | 2,031,930 | 2,520,351 | 2,848,638 | 3,703,229 | 4,258,714 | 4,812,347 | 5,437,952 | 6,144,885 | 6,452,130 | |
Depreciation | 31823 | 78,224 | 145,302 | 184,828 | 193,773 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 |
SG&A | 30,350 | 40,369 | 111,024 | 236,203 | 263,995 | 343,194 | 394,673 | 445,980 | 503,957 | 569,472 | 597,945 | |
Other Operating | ||||||||||||
Expenses | 1,126 | 138 | 1,804 | 21,784 | 112,881 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Operating Income | 32,101 | 77,450 | 448,545 | 765,580 | 677,494 | 1,152,602 | 1,344,511 | 1,535,780 | 1,751,915 | 1,996,146 | 2,102,293 | |
NOPAT | 23,113 | 55,764 | 322,952 | 551,218 | 487,796 | 829,874 | 968,048 | 1,105,762 | 1,261,378 | 1,437,225 | 1,513,651 | |
Add: Depreciation | 31,823 | 78,224 | 145,302 | 184,828 | 193,773 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | |
Less: CAPEX | 715,666 | 1,123,930 | 1,495,497 | 3,424,336 | 2,164,702 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | 126,790 | |
Less: Change in NWC | -115,666 | 994,181 | -2,825,176 | 1,739,264 | -103,594 | -28,657 | -28,561 | -32,274 | -36,470 | -15,850 | ||
FCFF | -874,276 | -2,021,424 | 136,886 | - 3,222,397 | 933,468 | 996,705 | 1,134,323 | 1,293,653 | 1,473,695 | 1,529,501 |
119,946 | 4,280 | 998,461 | -1,826,715 | -87,451 | -191,045 | -219,702 | -248,263 | -280,538 | -317,007 | -332,858 | ||
Change in NWC | -115,666 | 994,181 | -2,825,176 | 1,739,264 | -103,594 | -28,657 | -28,561 | -32,274 | -36,470 | -15,850 | ||
NWC/Sales | 11.2% 91.1% | 0.3% 85.5% | 36.5% 74.2% | -49.0% 67.6% | -2.1% 69.5% | -3.6% 77.6% | ||||||
COGS/Sales | ||||||||||||
SG&A/Sales | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% |