Lựa chọn ngược và rủi ro đạo đức trong Bảo hiểm Y tế Việt Nam - 14


Phụ lục 3. Kết quả hồi quy kiểm định rủi ro đạo đức đối với KCB ngoại trú

3.1 Hồi quy OLS (KCB ngoại trú)


3 2 Các kiểm định đối với hồi quy OLS KCB ngoại trú vif Variable VIF 1 VIF Tuoi 2 1


3.2 Các kiểm định đối với hồi quy OLS (KCB ngoại trú)


. vif


Variable

VIF

1/VIF

Tuoi

2.25

0.445006

GiaosuKysu

2.11

0.474804

Daihoc

1.99

0.502262

Huutri

1.86

0.538312

DTKinh

1.84

0.544583

Vung2

1.81

0.553004

lnthunhap

1.64

0.607927

sdBHYTMP_NGT

1.58

0.633372

Vung1

1.57

0.635916

THPT

1.57

0.636334

dihoc

1.56

0.641037

Vung3

1.48

0.673849

sdBHYTBB_NGT

1.42

0.704062

Congnghiep

1.40

0.714430

Vung5

1.38

0.722626

VPDV

1.36

0.734976

ChuaKH

1.35

0.738382

Thanhthi

1.34

0.748320

THCS

1.31

0.764294

Vung4

1.26

0.794335

Bangnghe

1.24

0.805569

sdBHYTHSS~GT

1.21

0.823989

thatnghiep

1.17

0.852241

sdBHYTTN_NGT

1.13

0.882447

DTHoa

1.12

0.896318

tsnguoiHoGD

1.11

0.897760

NhaLD

1.11

0.904023

LDgiandon

1.09

0.916708

GTNam

1.07

0.934575

sdBHYTCN_NGT

1.04

0.963356

SKKem

1.03

0.969312

SKTot

1.01

0.991596

Mean VIF

1.42

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. estat hettest


Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity Ho: Constant variance

Variables: fitted values of solanNGT


chi2(1) = 4301.81

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000



3.3 Hồi quy Poisson


Poisson regression




Number of obs


=


9186




Wald chi2(32)

=

895.72




Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Log pseudolikelihood

=

-26499.093

Pseudo R2

=

0.0891




solanNGT


Coef.

Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

GTNam

-.0595385

.0293575

-2.03

0.043

-.1170781

-.0019988

Tuoi

.0054076

.0011419

4.74

0.000

.0031696

.0076457

ChuaKH

-.13731

.0504066

-2.72

0.006

-.236105

-.038515

SKTot

-.1951636

.0884899

-2.21

0.027

-.3686006

-.0217265

SKKem

.1712615

.0470253

3.64

0.000

.0790935

.2634295

tsnguoiHoGD

-.0063779

.0082206

-0.78

0.438

-.0224901

.0097342

lnthunhap

.0056654

.0232159

0.24

0.807

-.039837

.0511678

Vung1

-.6330909

.0380367

-16.64

0.000

-.7076415

-.5585403

Vung2

-.7668265

.047796

-16.04

0.000

-.8605049

-.6731481

Vung3

-.5637568

.036564

-15.42

0.000

-.6354209

-.4920927

Vung4

-.5306166

.0602903

-8.80

0.000

-.6487833

-.4124498

Vung5

-.2799774

.0490487

-5.71

0.000

-.3761111

-.1838437

Thanhthi

.0487543

.0337687

1.44

0.149

-.0174312

.1149398

DTKinh

.118913

.0612533

1.94

0.052

-.0011413

.2389673

DTHoa

-.0554862

.1504637

-0.37

0.712

-.3503896

.2394171

Daihoc

-.0126779

.0665053

-0.19

0.849

-.1430258

.11767

Bangnghe

.1241794

.0938672

1.32

0.186

-.0597968

.3081557

THPT

-.0804924

.0381814

-2.11

0.035

-.1553266

-.0056581

THCS

-.0075633

.0333941

-0.23

0.821

-.0730145

.0578879

NhaLD

-.0900624

.099345

-0.91

0.365

-.284775

.1046502

GiaosuKysu

-.0024441

.0619204

-0.04

0.969

-.1238059

.1189177

VPDV

.0659081

.0446155

1.48

0.140

-.0215368

.1533529

Congnghiep

-.092271

.0411972

-2.24

0.025

-.1730161

-.011526

LDgiandon

-.0922711

.0807722

-1.14

0.253

-.2505818

.0660395

Huutri

.0538445

.0519339

1.04

0.300

-.047944

.155633

thatnghiep

.3193828

.0679727

4.70

0.000

.1861588

.4526068

dihoc

-.0648277

.0989843

-0.65

0.513

-.2588334

.1291779

sdBHYTMP_NGT

.3062986

.0464833

6.59

0.000

.2151931

.3974042

sdBHYTTN_NGT

.3310923

.0392804

8.43

0.000

.2541041

.4080806

sdBHYTBB_NGT

.1280944

.0426242

3.01

0.003

.0445526

.2116363

sdBHYTHSSV_NGT

.2152319

.1515499

1.42

0.156

-.0818005

.5122643

sdBHYTCN_NGT

.1816962

.0941208

1.93

0.054

-.0027772

.3661696

_cons

1.132526

.1888729

6.00

0.000

.7623422

1.50271


. estat gof


Deviance goodness-of-fit

=

27117.23

Prob > chi2(9153)

=

0.0000

Pearson goodness-of-fit

=

44230.58

Prob > chi2(9153)

=

0.0000


Phụ lục 4. Kết quả hồi quy kiểm định rủi ro đạo đức đối với KCB nội trú

4.1 Hồi quy OLS


. reg solanNT GTNam Tuoi ChuaKH SKKem tsnguoiHoGD lnthunhap Vung1 Vung2 Vung3 Vung4 Vung5 Thanhthi

> suKysu VPDV Congnghiep LDgiandon Huutri thatnghiep dihoc sdBHYTMP_NT sdBHYTTN_NT sdBHYTBB_NT sdB


Source

SS

df

MS

Model

199.191861

31

6.42554389

Residual

2897.82729

2109

1.37402906

Total

3097.01915

2140

1.44720521

Number of obs

=

2141

F( 31, 2109)

=

4.68

Prob > F

=

0.0000

R-squared

=

0.0643

Adj R-squared

=

0.0506

Root MSE

=

1.1722



solanNT

Coef.

Std. Err.

t

P>|t|

[95% Conf.

Interval]

GTNam

.0232805

.057444

0.41

0.685

-.0893723

.1359333

Tuoi

.0043564

.0023076

1.89

0.059

-.0001691

.0088819

ChuaKH

-.1362923

.1249439

-1.09

0.275

-.3813184

.1087339

SKKem

.2949398

.0788916

3.74

0.000

.1402264

.4496533

tsnguoiHoGD

-.0482725

.0158377

-3.05

0.002

-.0793316

-.0172133

lnthunhap

.0852116

.044649

1.91

0.056

-.0023491

.1727724

Vung1

-.2000025

.0876537

-2.28

0.023

-.3718992

-.0281059

Vung2

-.0519304

.0956623

-0.54

0.587

-.2395328

.1356719

Vung3

-.0756004

.0808302

-0.94

0.350

-.2341157

.0829149

Vung4

-.1275947

.127015

-1.00

0.315

-.3766825

.1214932

Vung5

-.2394522

.1134685

-2.11

0.035

-.461974

-.0169303

Thanhthi

.0465857

.0650373

0.72

0.474

-.0809582

.1741296

DTKinh

-.3014089

.0924978

-3.26

0.001

-.4828053

-.1200125

DTHoa

-.2500064

.4284643

-0.58

0.560

-1.090263

.5902505

Daihoc

.1089057

.1543133

0.71

0.480

-.1937165

.4115279

Bangnghe

.0796353

.2057407

0.39

0.699

-.3238406

.4831112

THPT

.1148792

.0868115

1.32

0.186

-.0553659

.2851243

THCS

.1078864

.0691499

1.56

0.119

-.0277228

.2434955

NhaLD

-.2779898

.3463497

-0.80

0.422

-.9572125

.4012329

GiaosuKysu

.0594752

.1473121

0.40

0.686

-.2294171

.3483674

VPDV

.0434718

.0989551

0.44

0.660

-.1505879

.2375315

Congnghiep

.0576453

.0889485

0.65

0.517

-.1167906

.2320811

LDgiandon

.0981136

.1648806

0.60

0.552

-.225232

.4214591

Huutri

.2259237

.0937109

2.41

0.016

.0421483

.409699

thatnghiep

.4316477

.1018932

4.24

0.000

.2318261

.6314693

dihoc

.7631649

.2576808

2.96

0.003

.2578298

1.2685

sdBHYTMP_NT

.1367061

.0717382

1.91

0.057

-.003979

.2773911

sdBHYTTN_NT

-.0287464

.0794292

-0.36

0.717

-.1845141

.1270212

sdBHYTBB_NT

-.0205833

.0946298

-0.22

0.828

-.2061608

.1649941

sdBHYTHSSV_NT

-.6027685

.240061

-2.51

0.012

-1.07355

-.1319875

sdBHYTCN_NT

.062107

.2339041

0.27

0.791

-.3965997

.5208138

_cons

.7346696

.3410437

2.15

0.031

.0658523

1.403487


. vif



Variable

VIF

1/VIF

Tuoi

3.06

0.326505

Vung2

2.38

0.420398

GiaosuKysu

2.11

0.474465

Huutri

2.01

0.498544

Vung1

1.98

0.504821

Vung3

1.98

0.505089

DTKinh

1.95

0.512758

Daihoc

1.92

0.521686

sdBHYTMP_NT

1.69

0.590849

dihoc

1.66

0.601066

lnthunhap

1.65

0.605267

sdBHYTBB_NT

1.65

0.606719

THPT

1.61

0.619877

SKKem

1.60

0.625240

ChuaKH

1.52

0.659555

Vung5

1.42

0.704712

THCS

1.41

0.711614

Congnghiep

1.40

0.715734

Bangnghe

1.39

0.721158

VPDV

1.38

0.725507

Vung4

1.33

0.751891

sdBHYTHSS~NT

1.32

0.756385

Thanhthi

1.32

0.758429

thatnghiep

1.30

0.768035

sdBHYTTN_NT

1.25

0.800189

tsnguoiHoGD

1.21

0.823187

GTNam

1.20

0.835737

LDgiandon

1.10

0.910963

DTHoa

1.06

0.939080

sdBHYTCN_NT

1.06

0.942038

NhaLD

1.04

0.959900

Mean VIF

1.58


. estat hettest


Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity Ho: Constant variance

Variables: fitted values of solanNT


chi2(1) = 1825.33

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000



4.2 Hồi quy Poisson ( KCB nội trú)


Poisson regression


Number of obs


=


2141


Wald chi2(31)

=

204.31


Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Log pseudolikelihood = -2873.8908

Pseudo R2

=

0.0238




solanNT


Coef.

Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

GTNam

.0161011

.0414264

0.39

0.698

-.0650931

.0972954

Tuoi

.0030303

.0015441

1.96

0.050

3.87e-06

.0060568

ChuaKH

-.1017006

.0591066

-1.72

0.085

-.2175475

.0141462

SKKem

.2397392

.0462528

5.18

0.000

.1490853

.3303931

tsnguoiHoGD

-.0337532

.0090819

-3.72

0.000

-.0515534

-.015953

lnthunhap

.0571439

.0299566

1.91

0.056

-.0015699

.1158577

Vung1

-.1407282

.0623933

-2.26

0.024

-.2630169

-.0184396

Vung2

-.038587

.0737799

-0.52

0.601

-.183193

.106019

Vung3

-.0514215

.0585098

-0.88

0.379

-.1660985

.0632556

Vung4

-.0895385

.0739562

-1.21

0.226

-.23449

.0554131

Vung5

-.1663104

.0653437

-2.55

0.011

-.2943818

-.0382391

Thanhthi

.0355598

.0545499

0.65

0.514

-.071356

.1424756

DTKinh

-.208274

.078102

-2.67

0.008

-.3613511

-.055197

DTHoa

-.1576376

.2188164

-0.72

0.471

-.5865098

.2712346

Daihoc

.0682212

.1621437

0.42

0.674

-.2495745

.386017

Bangnghe

.0519742

.1168469

0.44

0.656

-.1770416

.2809899

THPT

.0773604

.0651417

1.19

0.235

-.050315

.2050358

THCS

.0756986

.0429544

1.76

0.078

-.0084906

.1598877

NhaLD

-.1958304

.1078541

-1.82

0.069

-.4072206

.0155599

GiaosuKysu

.0437816

.1075335

0.41

0.684

-.1669802

.2545435

VPDV

.0254958

.0585597

0.44

0.663

-.0892791

.1402707

Congnghiep

.033002

.0515375

0.64

0.522

-.0680097

.1340136

LDgiandon

.0617945

.0866851

0.71

0.476

-.1081051

.2316942

Huutri

.1422483

.062968

2.26

0.024

.0188332

.2656634

thatnghiep

.2935538

.0991926

2.96

0.003

.0991398

.4879678

dihoc

.529808

.2449221

2.16

0.031

.0497694

1.009847

sdBHYTMP_NT

.0873319

.0530056

1.65

0.099

-.0165572

.1912209

sdBHYTTN_NT

-.0198149

.0421713

-0.47

0.638

-.1024691

.0628393

sdBHYTBB_NT

-.0166677

.0613902

-0.27

0.786

-.1369903

.1036548

sdBHYTHSSV_NT

-.4589395

.1589357

-2.89

0.004

-.7704479

-.1474312

sdBHYTCN_NT

.0469845

.1006657

0.47

0.641

-.1503167

.2442856

_cons

-.1527026

.2270291

-0.67

0.501

-.5976713

.2922662


. estat gof


Deviance goodness-of-fit

=

1020.166

Prob > chi2(2109)

=

1.0000

Pearson goodness-of-fit

=

1580.401

Prob > chi2(2109)

=

1.0000


4.4 Hồi quy zero –truncated Poisson


Truncated Poisson regression

Number of obs

=

2141

Truncation point: 0

Wald chi2(31)

=

134.94


Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Log pseudolikelihood = -1889.4345

Pseudo R2

=

0.2025



solanNT


Coef.

Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

GTNam

.0483552

.1058969

0.46

0.648

-.1591988

.2559093

Tuoi

.0090278

.0043107

2.09

0.036

.000579

.0174766

ChuaKH

-.355521

.2091457

-1.70

0.089

-.7654391

.054397

SKKem

1.346506

.2506258

5.37

0.000

.8552882

1.837723

tsnguoiHoGD

-.098072

.0256153

-3.83

0.000

-.1482771

-.0478669

lnthunhap

.1570697

.0789817

1.99

0.047

.0022684

.311871

Vung1

-.4257181

.1747464

-2.44

0.015

-.7682147

-.0832215

Vung2

-.1325213

.1900837

-0.70

0.486

-.5050784

.2400359

Vung3

-.1426305

.1525146

-0.94

0.350

-.4415537

.1562926

Vung4

-.2813753

.2064777

-1.36

0.173

-.6860642

.1233136

Vung5

-.4946412

.2002845

-2.47

0.014

-.8871916

-.1020909

Thanhthi

.1246426

.1498994

0.83

0.406

-.1691548

.41844

DTKinh

-.5917872

.1848588

-3.20

0.001

-.9541039

-.2294706

DTHoa

-.3334474

.7070828

-0.47

0.637

-1.719304

1.052409

Daihoc

.1462831

.4227461

0.35

0.729

-.6822841

.9748504

Bangnghe

.1351929

.412273

0.33

0.743

-.6728474

.9432333

THPT

.2156022

.1757108

1.23

0.220

-.1287847

.559989

THCS

.2300108

.1254673

1.83

0.067

-.0159007

.4759222

NhaLD

-.6456663

.44026

-1.47

0.142

-1.50856

.2172275

GiaosuKysu

.1242929

.3196272

0.39

0.697

-.5021648

.7507506

VPDV

.0177148

.1967901

0.09

0.928

-.3679867

.4034163

Congnghiep

.0130888

.1730405

0.08

0.940

-.3260644

.352242

LDgiandon

.1394313

.2883924

0.48

0.629

-.4258074

.7046699

Huutri

.3385821

.1411075

2.40

0.016

.0620165

.6151477

thatnghiep

.7938215

.2113605

3.76

0.000

.3795627

1.20808

dihoc

1.505922

.4825159

3.12

0.002

.560208

2.451635

sdBHYTMP_NT

.2154755

.1325459

1.63

0.104

-.0443096

.4752606

sdBHYTTN_NT

-.060889

.1387932

-0.44

0.661

-.3329186

.2111406

sdBHYTBB_NT

-.069742

.1954044

-0.36

0.721

-.4527275

.3132436

sdBHYTHSSV_NT

-1.958857

.6192911

-3.16

0.002

-3.172646

-.7450691

sdBHYTCN_NT

.1716979

.2793103

0.61

0.539

-.3757403

.7191361

_cons

-2.405331

.6378601

-3.77

0.000

-3.655514

-1.155148

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