Nghiên cứu tác động của nợ công, tham nhũng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia trên thế giới

. xttest3

Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model

H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i

chi2 (36) = 7278.95

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

. xtserial TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first order autocorrelation

F( 1, 35) = 524.941 Prob > F = 0.0000

. vif

Variable

VIF	1/VIF
HUMAN4	2.57	0.388527
TO4	2.41	0.415302
LOGY4	1.93	0.517763
GSIZE4	1.62	0.617403
DEFIC4	1.51	0.661484
DEBT4	1.37	0.732332
CRISIS1	1.30	0.771054
INFLAT4	1.18	0.843917
Mean VIF	1.74

Có thể bạn quan tâm!

Nghiên cứu tác động của nợ công, tham nhũng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia trên thế giới - 25
Nghiên cứu tác động của nợ công, tham nhũng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia trên thế giới - 26
Kết Quả Phân Tích Thống Kê Mô Tả Biến
Kết Quả Phân Tích Tác Động Của Tham Nhũng Đến Tăng Trưởng Kinh Tế (Ttkt)
Nghiên cứu tác động của nợ công, tham nhũng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia trên thế giới - 30
Kết Quả Phân Tích Tác Động Của Nợ Công, Tham Nhũng Đến Tăng Trưởng Kinh

Xem toàn bộ 264 trang tài liệu này.

3a2. Kết quả phân tích tác động của nợ công đến TTKT bằng POLS, FEM, REM

đối với nhóm thu nhập trung bình cao

. regress TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1

Source	SS	df	MS
Model	.290256212	8	.036282026
Residual	.315731641	447	.000706335
Total	.605987853	455	.001331841

Number of obs = 456

F( 8, 447) = 51.37

Prob > F = 0.0000

R-squared = 0.4790 Adj R-squared = 0.4697 Root MSE = .02658

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.	t	P>\|t\|	[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0373061	.0037583	-9.93	0.000	-.0446922	-.02992
DEBT4	-.00021	.000049	-4.29	0.000	-.0003063	-.0001138
HUMAN4	.0035936	.0003079	11.67	0.000	.0029885	.0041987
INFLAT4	.0000223	.0001765	0.13	0.900	-.0003247	.0003692
TO4	.0000295	.0000367	0.80	0.423	-.0000428	.0001017
GSIZE4	-.0002313	.0003259	-0.71	0.478	-.0008718	.0004091
DEFIC4	.0007183	.0005704	1.26	0.209	-.0004027	.0018393
CRISIS1	-.0262587	.0031597	-8.31	0.000	-.0324685	-.0200489
_cons	.1876705	.0335728	5.59	0.000	.1216903	.2536508

. xtreg TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,fe

Fixed-effects (within) regression

Number of obs =	456
Group variable: CountryID	Number of groups =	29
R-sq: within = 0.6100	Obs per group: min =	12
between = 0.0184	avg =	15.7
overall = 0.1785	max =	16
	F(8,419) =	81.93
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.7182	Prob > F =	0.0000

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.	t P>\|t\|		[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0847854	.006001	-14.13 0.000		-.0965811	-.0729897
DEBT4	.0004027	.0000899	4.48 0.000		.0002261	.0005793
HUMAN4	.0035643	.0010194	3.50 0.001		.0015605	.005568
INFLAT4	-.0011198	.0001683	-6.65 0.000		-.0014507	-.0007889
TO4	.0006451	.0000899	7.18 0.000		.0004685	.0008218
GSIZE4	.0021888	.0006565	3.33 0.001		.0008983	.0034793
DEFIC4	.0009268	.0006048	1.53 0.126		-.0002619	.0021156
CRISIS1	-.002052	.0036078	-0.57 0.570		-.0091437	.0050397
_cons	.5126312	.0692725	7.40 0.000		.3764662	.6487961
sigma_u	.03939551
sigma_e	.01989971
rho	.79671585	(fraction	of variance due	to	u_i)

F test that all u_i=0: F(28, 419) = 13.51 Prob > F = 0.0000

. xtreg TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,re

Random-effects GLS regression

Number of obs =	456
Group variable: CountryID	Number of groups =	29
R-sq: within = 0.5450	Obs per group: min =	12
between = 0.2902	avg =	15.7
overall = 0.4119	max =	16
	Wald chi2(8) =	437.95
corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed)	Prob > chi2 =	0.0000

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.	z P>\|z\|		[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0588329	.0050141	-11.73 0.000		-.0686603	-.0490054
DEBT4	-.0000274	.0000698	-0.39 0.694		-.0001642	.0001093
HUMAN4	.0037498	.0005137	7.30 0.000		.002743	.0047567
INFLAT4	-.000496	.0001753	-2.83 0.005		-.0008396	-.0001524
TO4	.000154	.0000569	2.71 0.007		.0000425	.0002655
GSIZE4	.0004537	.0004822	0.94 0.347		-.0004915	.0013989
DEFIC4	.0013009	.0006233	2.09 0.037		.0000793	.0025225
CRISIS1	-.015672	.0033039	-4.74 0.000		-.0221475	-.0091965
_cons	.3464561	.0478364	7.24 0.000		.2526985	.4402138
sigma_u	.00939078
sigma_e	.01989971
rho	.18213427	(fraction	of variance due	to	u_i)

. hausman fem1 rem1

Coefficients

(b) fem1	(B) rem1	(b-B) Difference	sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E.
LOGY4	-.0847854	-.0588329	-.0259525	.003297
DEBT4	.0004027	-.0000274	.0004301	.0000566
HUMAN4	.0035643	.0037498	-.0001855	.0008805
INFLAT4	-.0011198	-.000496	-.0006238	.
TO4	.0006451	.000154	.0004911	.0000696
GSIZE4	.0021888	.0004537	.0017351	.0004455
DEFIC4	.0009268	.0013009	-.0003741	.
CRISIS1	-.002052	-.015672	.01362	.0014494

b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)

= 188.16

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)

. pwcorr u1 LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,sig

u1	LOGY4	DEBT4	HUMAN4	INFLAT4	TO4	GSIZE4
u1	1.0000
LOGY4	-0.6791	1.0000
	0.0000
DEBT4	0.3313	-0.1396	1.0000
	0.0000	0.0028
HUMAN4	0.0291	0.3812	-0.1017	1.0000
	0.5354	0.0000	0.0297
INFLAT4	-0.2334	-0.0582	0.0850	0.0003	1.0000
	0.0000	0.2114	0.0697	0.9946
TO4	0.4533	0.1214	0.0188	0.0670	0.0375	1.0000
	0.0000	0.0089	0.6885	0.1499	0.4203
GSIZE4	0.1794	0.0856	0.0589	0.0059	0.0463	0.1187	1.0000
	0.0001	0.0653	0.2087	0.8988	0.3201	0.0105
DEFIC4	0.0266	-0.0260	-0.1521	0.0425	0.4692	0.1144	0.0397
	0.5714	0.5765	0.0011	0.3626	0.0000	0.0139	0.3952
CRISIS1	-0.4110	0.5902	-0.1283	0.2601	-0.1454	0.0097	0.0564
	0.0000	0.0000	0.0060	0.0000	0.0017	0.8342	0.2252

	DEFIC4	CRISIS1
DEFIC4	1.0000
CRISIS1	-0.0595	1.0000
	0.2018

. xttest3

Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model

H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i

chi2 (29) = 1237.35

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

. xtserial TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first order autocorrelation

F( 1, 28) = 109.952 Prob > F = 0.0000

. vif

Variable

VIF	1/VIF
LOGY4	1.76	0.569457
CRISIS1	1.58	0.633058
HUMAN4	1.19	0.840846
DEBT4	1.07	0.937485
TO4	1.05	0.953173
INFLAT4	1.05	0.954636
DEFIC4	1.04	0.965054
GSIZE4	1.02	0.975788
Mean VIF	1.22

3a3. Kết quả phân tích tác động của nợ công đến TTKT bằng POLS, FEM, REM

đối với nhóm thu nhập trung bình thấp

. regress TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1

Source	SS	df	MS
Model	.072834682	8	.009104335
Residual	.132681036	308	.000430783
Total	.205515717	316	.000650366

Number of obs = 317

F( 8, 308) = 21.13

Prob > F = 0.0000

R-squared = 0.3544 Adj R-squared = 0.3376 Root MSE = .02076

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.	t	P>\|t\|	[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0325915	.0042048	-7.75	0.000	-.0408653	-.0243176
DEBT4	.0000444	.0000605	0.74	0.463	-.0000745	.0001634
HUMAN4	.0030281	.000335	9.04	0.000	.0023689	.0036874
INFLAT4	.00015	.0001933	0.78	0.438	-.0002304	.0005304
TO4	9.06e-06	.0000454	0.20	0.842	-.0000802	.0000984
GSIZE4	-.0008142	.0003082	-2.64	0.009	-.0014207	-.0002078
DEFIC4	-.0005279	.0002481	-2.13	0.034	-.001016	-.0000399
CRISIS1	-.0061953	.0029999	-2.07	0.040	-.0120981	-.0002925
_cons	.147139	.0244904	6.01	0.000	.0989494	.1953287

. xtreg TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,fe

Fixed-effects (within) regression

Number of obs =	317
Group variable: CountryID	Number of groups =	21
R-sq: within = 0.2976	Obs per group: min =	6
between = 0.5753	avg =	15.1
overall = 0.3199	max =	16
	F(8,288) =	15.25
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.7887	Prob > F =	0.0000

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.		t P>\|t\|		[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0775037	.0092976		-8.34 0.000		-.0958036	-.0592039
DEBT4	.0001406	.0000824		1.71 0.089		-.0000215	.0003027
HUMAN4	.0061782	.0011631		5.31 0.000		.003889	.0084675
INFLAT4	-.0005277	.0002392		-2.21 0.028		-.0009985	-.0000569
TO4	.0000306	.0000941		0.32 0.745		-.0001546	.0002157
GSIZE4	-.0020373	.0007283		-2.80 0.006		-.0034708	-.0006037
DEFIC4	-.0005022	.0002619		-1.92 0.056		-.0010177	.0000133
CRISIS1	.0074304	.0042166		1.76 0.079		-.0008689	.0157296
_cons	.3381751	.0694504		4.87 0.000		.2014804	.4748698
sigma_u	.01837085
sigma_e	.01856649
rho	.49470361	(fraction	of	variance due	to	u_i)

F test that all u_i=0: F(20, 288) = 4.85 Prob > F = 0.0000

. xtreg TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,re

Random-effects GLS regression

Number of obs =	317
Group variable: CountryID	Number of groups =	21
R-sq: within = 0.2776	Obs per group: min =	6
between = 0.6196	avg =	15.1
overall = 0.3415	max =	16
	Wald chi2(8) =	127.28
corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed)	Prob > chi2 =	0.0000

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.		z P>\|z\|		[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0463162	.0060693		-7.63 0.000		-.0582118	-.0344206
DEBT4	.0001012	.0000722		1.40 0.161		-.0000402	.0002427
HUMAN4	.003958	.0004999		7.92 0.000		.0029781	.0049378
INFLAT4	-.0002247	.0002154		-1.04 0.297		-.0006469	.0001976
TO4	-.0000119	.0000647		-0.18 0.854		-.0001388	.0001149
GSIZE4	-.0011331	.000459		-2.47 0.014		-.0020327	-.0002334
DEFIC4	-.0004445	.000256		-1.74 0.082		-.0009461	.0000572
CRISIS1	-.0011893	.0032756		-0.36 0.717		-.0076094	.0052307
_cons	.2081443	.0363603		5.72 0.000		.1368795	.2794091
sigma_u	.00756649
sigma_e	.01856649
rho	.14242943	(fraction	of	variance due	to	u_i)

. hausman fem1 rem1

Coefficients

(b) fem1	(B) rem1	(b-B) Difference	sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E.
LOGY4	-.0775037	-.0463162	-.0311875	.0070434
DEBT4	.0001406	.0001012	.0000394	.0000397
HUMAN4	.0061782	.003958	.0022203	.0010502
INFLAT4	-.0005277	-.0002247	-.000303	.0001039
TO4	.0000306	-.0000119	.0000425	.0000683
GSIZE4	-.0020373	-.0011331	-.0009042	.0005655
DEFIC4	-.0005022	-.0004445	-.0000577	.0000556
CRISIS1	.0074304	-.0011893	.0086197	.0026552

b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)

= 37.17

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)

. predict u1

(option xb assumed; fitted values) (103 missing values generated)

. pwcorr u1 LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1,sig

u1	LOGY4	DEBT4	HUMAN4	INFLAT4	TO4	GSIZE4
u1	1.0000
LOGY4	-0.4115	1.0000
	0.0000
DEBT4	0.0696	-0.1566	1.0000
	0.2164	0.0040
HUMAN4	0.3381	0.7123	-0.1339	1.0000
	0.0000	0.0000	0.0140
INFLAT4	0.0466	-0.1317	0.1236	-0.0232	1.0000
	0.4087	0.0157	0.0235	0.6720
TO4	0.3750	0.1288	-0.1165	0.4615	0.0852	1.0000
	0.0000	0.0182	0.0328	0.0000	0.1189
GSIZE4	-0.2005	0.2532	-0.0688	0.3091	-0.0730	0.2358	1.0000
	0.0003	0.0000	0.2207	0.0000	0.1938	0.0000
DEFIC4	-0.2130	0.0991	0.0363	0.0291	0.0443	0.1071	0.0434
	0.0001	0.0704	0.5085	0.5956	0.4193	0.0505	0.4411
CRISIS1	-0.2299	0.4435	-0.3787	0.2072	-0.0285	0.0167	0.0704
	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0001	0.6033	0.7606	0.2096

	DEFIC4	CRISIS1
DEFIC4	1.0000
CRISIS1	-0.1364	1.0000
	0.0126

. xttest3

Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model

H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i

chi2 (21) = 616.67

Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

. xtserial TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 CRISIS1

Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first order autocorrelation

F( 1, 20) = 162.373 Prob > F = 0.0000

. vif

Variable

VIF	1/VIF
LOGY4	2.85	0.350452
HUMAN4	2.83	0.353674
CRISIS1	1.63	0.614305
TO4	1.50	0.666818
DEBT4	1.22	0.818187
GSIZE4	1.14	0.875833
DEFIC4	1.08	0.923820
INFLAT4	1.04	0.957229
Mean VIF	1.66

3b. Kết quả phân tích tác động của nợ công đến TTKT dưới điều kiện khủng hoảng

nợ công bằng DGMM

3b1. Kết quả phân tích tác động của nợ công đến TTKT bằng DGMM đối với nhóm thu nhập cao

. xtabond2 TBY LOGY4 DEBT4 HUMAN4 INFLAT4 TO4 GSIZE4 DEFIC4 DEBTCRISIS, gmm(l2.TO4, lag(1 2)) iv(l.LOGY4 DEBT4 l3.HUMAN4 INFLAT4

> l2.GSIZE4 l2.DEFIC4 DEBTCRISIS) twostep small noleveleq

Favoring space over speed. To switch, type or click on mata: mata set matafavor speed, perm. Warning: Two-step estimated covariance matrix of moments is singular.

Using a generalized inverse to calculate optimal weighting matrix for two-step estimation. Difference-in-Sargan/Hansen statistics may be negative.

Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step difference GMM

Group variable: CountryID

Number of obs =	427
Time variable : Year	Number of groups =	36
Number of instruments = 31	Obs per group: min =	7
F(8, 36) = 1423.22	avg =	11.86
Prob > F = 0.000	max =	12

TBY

Coef.	Std. Err.	t	P>\|t\|	[95% Conf.	Interval]
LOGY4	-.0624914	.0042166	-14.82	0.000	-.0710431	-.0539397
DEBT4	.0007108	.0000401	17.73	0.000	.0006295	.0007921
HUMAN4	-.0122994	.0007071	-17.39	0.000	-.0137335	-.0108652
INFLAT4	-.0012007	.0001403	-8.56	0.000	-.0014853	-.0009161
TO4	-.0003556	.0000253	-14.04	0.000	-.000407	-.0003043
GSIZE4	.0033474	.0006293	5.32	0.000	.0020711	.0046238
DEFIC4	.0001645	.0001831	0.90	0.375	-.0002069	.0005359
DEBTCRISIS	-.0000433	.0000125	-3.46	0.001	-.0000687	-.0000179

Warning: Uncorrected two-step standard errors are unreliable.

Instruments for first differences equation Standard

D.(L.LOGY4 DEBT4 L3.HUMAN4 INFLAT4 L2.GSIZE4 L2.DEFIC4 DEBTCRISIS)

GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) L(1/2).L2.TO4

Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = 2.40 Pr > z = 0.016 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.55 Pr > z = 0.584

Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(23) = 173.56 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.)

Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(23) = 29.17 Prob > chi2 = 0.175 (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.)

Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: iv(L.LOGY4 DEBT4 L3.HUMAN4 INFLAT4 L2.GSIZE4 L2.DEFIC4 DEBTCRISIS)

Hansen test excluding group: chi2(16) = 24.97 Prob > chi2 = 0.070 Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(7) = 4.20 Prob > chi2 = 0.756

3b2. Kết quả phân tích tác động của nợ công đến TTKT bằng DGMM đối với nhóm thu nhập trung bình cao

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Ngày đăng: 31/05/2023