Phát triển thị trường vốn Việt Nam - 24


Phụ lục 5

Kết quả ước lượng các tham số của mô hình thị trường (công thức 1.5) đối với 25 công ty trong mẫu nghiên cứu.


STT

i

i

SS(res)

Ri1

Ri2

Ri3

Rm1

Rm2

Rm3

ARi1

ARi2

ARi3

VAR(res)

CARi

VAR(CAR)

VNM

















1


1.2085


0.00138


0.032964


-0.0056


-0.028


0.0465


0.0212


-0.0074


0.026717


-0.0326

-

0.0207


0.0128


0.000568




2


0.8415


-0.00244


0.024559


0.04082


0.049


0.0467

-

0.0009


-0.017


-0.02771


0.04399


0.0657


0.0725


0.000423




3


0.7775


-0.00044


0.010666


0.04734


0


-0.017


0.046


0.02076


-0.02242


0.01199

- 0.0157


0.0009


0.000184




4


1.073


0.00449


0.014998


-0.0235


0.0181


0

-

0.0129


0.00694


-0.00372


-0.0142


0.0061


-5E-04


0.000259












AR(bquan)

0.00231

0.0089

0.0214


0.0326

0.0002689

STB









VAR(bquan)

9E-05

9E-05

9E-05





5


0.7444


-0.00084


0.017107


-0.0156


-0.035


0.0164


0.0052


-0.0306


0.009682


-0.0186

-

0.0112


0.01


0.000295



6

1.124

0.0033

0.023717

-0.0278

0.0444

0.0304

-0.019

0.02031

0.015033

-0.0097

0.0183

0.0102

0.000409



7

1.0797

0.00203

0.020677

0.02538

0.0396

0.0476

0.0064

0.01875

0.046669

0.0164

0.0173

-0.005

0.000357




8


1.1072


-0.00085


0.011341


0.00606


-0.024


0

-

0.0089


-0.029


0.01375


0.01681


0.0089


-0.014


0.000196












AR(bquan)

0.00124

0.0083

0.0003


0.0098

0.0002355

DPM









VAR(bquan)

7.8E-05

8E-05

8E-05





9


0.969


-0.0047


0.010637


0.04691


-0.038

-

0.0123


0.0335


-0.0012


-0.03747


0.01915

-

0.0319


0.0288


0.000183




10


1.0867


-0.00223


0.01428


-0.05


0


0

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


-0.0322


0.0138


0.0168


0.000246




11


1.3074


6.1E-05


0.008639


0.01671


0.0493


0.0496


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


-0.0079

-

0.0118


-0.007


0.000149




12


1.2099


-0.00349


0.018575


-0.0351


-0.039

-

0.0063

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


-0.0089


9E-06


0.008


0.00032













AR(bquan)


-0.0075

-

0.0075


0.0115


-

0.0034


0.0001685

HPG









VAR(bquan)

5.6E-05

6E-05

6E-05




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Phát triển thị trường vốn Việt Nam - 24


13

1.0827

-0.00154

0.014219

0.02041

0.02

0.0458

0.0156

0.00308

0.009087

0.00506

0.0182

0.0375

0.000245



14

1.1003

0.00012

0.016252

0.00935

0.0185

0.0364

0.0086

0.00732

0.035091

-0.0002

0.0103

-0.002

0.00028




15


1.2588


0.00195


0.011026


-0.0462


0.0484


0.0487

-

0.0456


-0.0192


0.029063


0.00936


0.0706


0.0102


0.00019




16


1.2663


0.00109


0.010926


-0.02


-0.034

-

0.0387

-

0.0297


-0.0089


-0.02901


0.0165

-

0.0238


-0.003


0.000188












AR(bquan)

0.00767

0.0188

0.0105


0.0371

0.0001695

PVD









VAR(bquan)

5.6E-05

6E-05

6E-05




17

0.7207

-0.0004

0.023929

0.02174

-0.021

0.0544

0.0052

-0.0306

0.009682

0.01842

0.0012

0.0478

0.000413



18

0.8247

-0.00145

0.032664

0.01325

0.0458

0.0375

0.0351

0.04724

0.032988

-0.0142

0.0082

0.0117

0.000563




19


1.0619


-0.00227


0.01737


-0.0075


-0.045


0.0476

- 0.0207


-0.0168


0.01223


0.01672

- 0.0253


0.0369


0.000299




20


0.8897


0.00101


0.034114


-0.0142


0

-

0.0072

-

0.0297


-0.0089


-0.02901


0.01122


0.0069


0.0176


0.000588













AR(bquan)


0.00803

-

0.0022


0.0285



0.0343


0.0003494

FPT









VAR(bquan)

0.00012

0.0001

0.0001





21


0.7004


-9.2E-05


0.010229


0


0.0061


0.0422

-

0.0013


0.00552


0.026067


0.00102


0.0023


0.024


0.000176




22


0.9779


0.0007


0.017831


0


-0.021


0.0213

-

0.0111


-0.0368


0.008598


0.01013


0.0145


0.0122


0.000307




23


1.2652


0.00075


0.012529


0.00909


0.045


0.0431


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


-0.0154

-

0.0148


-0.013


0.000216




24


1.798


-0.00089


0.083615


-0.0396


-0.039


0.0193

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


-0.005


0.0151


0.0363


0.001442












AR(bquan)

-0.0023

0.0043

0.0149


0.0169

0.0004015

SSI









VAR(bquan)

0.00013

0.0001

0.0001





25


0.9959


0.00289


0.021771


0.04615


0.049

- 0.0467


0.0031


0.00909


-0.01349


0.04019


0.0371


-0.036


0.000375




26


1.2715


0.00057


0.031573


0.02564


0


-0.025


0.0203


0.01503


-0.01107


-0.0008

-

0.0197


-0.011


0.000544




27


1.2167


0.00514


0.026327


-0.0476


-0.045

-

0.0496


0.0291


-0.0207


-0.01681


-0.0881

-

0.0247


-0.034


0.000454




28


1.3864


0.00263


0.029553


0


-0.014

-

0.0034

-

0.0037


-0.007


-0.00931


0.00253

-

0.0066


0.0068


0.00051













AR(bquan)


-0.0115

-

0.0035


-0.019


-

0.0338


0.0003531


PPC









VAR(bquan)

0.00012

0.0001

0.0001




29

0.7253

-0.00376

0.011283

0.04906

0.0468

0.0481

0.0267

0.01937

-0.0127

0.03344

0.0365

0.0611

0.000195




30


0.9426


-0.00585


0.02643


0


0.0182

-

0.0179

-

0.0134


0.03286


0.002507


0.01846

-

0.0069


-0.014


0.000456




31


1.0765


0.00595


0.02887


-0.0468


0.0316

-

0.0476

-

0.0224


0.01353


-0.02832


-0.0286


0.0111


-0.023


0.000498




32


1.3738


0.00018


0.032222


0.00575


0.0171

-

0.0225

-

0.0057


-0.008


-0.03393


0.01343


0.028


0.024


0.000556












AR(bquan)

0.00917

0.0171

0.0119


0.0382

0.0003194

ITA









VAR(bquan)

0.00011

0.0001

0.0001





33


1.3486


-0.00048


0.035886


-0.0477


0.0475


0.0479

-

0.0039


0.03351


-0.00119


-0.042


0.0028


0.0499


0.000619




34


1.1398


0.00216


0.055109


0.04899


-0.014

-

0.0028


0.0329


0.00251


0.018507


0.00938

-

0.0188


-0.026


0.00095




35


1.1217


0.00395


0.056946


0.04762


0.0101


0.05


0.0392


0.00651


0.018377


-0.0003

-

0.0012


0.0254


0.000982




36


1.3494


0.00005


0.017909


-0.041


0.0085

-

0.0339

-

0.0297


-0.0089


-0.02901


-0.001


0.0206


0.0052


0.000309












AR(bquan)

-0.0085

0.0009

0.0136


0.006

0.0005362

VPL









VAR(bquan)

0.00018

0.0002

0.0002





37


0.6348


-0.00411


0.023278


-0.0435


0.0455


0.0435

-

0.0206


0.00516


-0.03062


-0.0263


0.0463


0.067


0.000401




38


0.9023


4.9E-05


0.043699


0.04965


-0.041


0.0423

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


0.06253


-0.031


0.0543


0.000753



39

0.9303

-0.00201

0.036011

0.04208

-0.05

0.0324

0.0122

0.00644

0.018751

0.03271

-0.054

0.017

0.000621




40


0.5256


-0.00714


0.04789


-0.044


-0.048

-

0.0484

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


-0.027

-

0.0254


-0.037


0.000826












AR(bquan)

0.01049

-0.016

0.0254


0.0199

0.0004878

VIC









VAR(bquan)

0.00016

0.0002

0.0002




41

0.9222

0.00387

0.030081

0

-0.024

0.0241

0.0052

-0.0306

0.009682

-0.0086

0.0008

0.0113

0.000519



42

0.9224

0.00565

0.046543

0.04839

0.0481

0.0183

0.033

-0.0143

-0.01067

0.01231

0.0556

0.0225

0.000802




43


1.1558


-0.01147


0.045695


0.05


-0.013

-

0.0254


0.0291


-0.0207


-0.01681


0.02788


0.0229


0.0055


0.000788




44


0.6335


0.00246


0.01867


0.0125


-0.037

-

0.0449

-

0.0188


-0.0299


-0.00894


0.02193

-

0.0206


-0.042


0.000322












AR(bquan)

0.01337

0.0147

-6E-04


0.0275

0.0004558

VSH









VAR(bquan)

0.00015

0.0002

0.0002






45


0.9854


-0.00272


0.031608


-0.0103


0

-

0.0234

-

0.0135


-0.0103


-0.02061


0.00573


0.0129


-4E-04


0.000545




46


0.965


-0.0022


0.029769


0.04748


0.0198

-

0.0278


0.0472


0.03299


-0.01433


0.00409

-

0.0098


-0.012


0.000513



47

0.7138

0.00075

0.026307

0.01014

0.0468

0.0479

0.0188

0.04667

0.043607

-0.004

0.0128

0.016

0.000454




48


0.9801


0.00192


0.018158


0.02837


-0.034

-

0.0143

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


0.04485

-

0.0073


-0.007


0.000313












AR(bquan)

0.01267

0.0021

-9E-04


0.0139

0.0003422

SJS









VAR(bquan)

0.00011

0.0001

0.0001





49


0.8468


0.00662


0.057456


0.0051


0


0.0051

-

0.0103


-0.0206


0.005161


0.00721


0.0108


-0.006


0.000991




50


0.8516


0.00623


0.053196


0


-0.009


0.0467

-

0.0107


-0.0134


0.032861


0.00286

-

0.0041


0.0125


0.000917



51

1.2696

-0.0014

0.013613

0.02703

0.0439

0.042

0.0188

0.04667

0.043607

0.00462

-0.014

-0.012

0.000235




52


1.236


0.00247


0.049374


-0.0455


-0.038

-

0.0139

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


-0.0247

-

0.0039


-0.005


0.000851













AR(bquan)


-0.0025

-

0.0028


-0.003



-0.008


0.0005613

KDC









VAR(bquan)

0.00019

0.0002

0.0002





53


0.6733


0.00951


0.043358


-0.0099


-0.05

-

0.0105


0.0091


-0.0135


-0.02061


-0.0255

-

0.0504


-0.006


0.000748




54


1.0207


0.00102


0.023249


0.00211


0.0316

-

0.0389

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


0.01572


0.0415


-0.026


0.000401



55

0.7624

0.00184

0.045346

0.02034

0.0498

0.0411

0.0188

0.04667

0.043607

0.00421

0.0124

0.0061

0.000782




56


0.8332


-0.00207


0.040929


-0.0476


-0.036

-

0.0472

-

0.0057


-0.008


-0.03393


-0.0408

-

0.0276


-0.017


0.000706













AR(bquan)


-0.0116


-0.006


-0.011


-

0.0284


0.0004942

REE









VAR(bquan)

0.00016

0.0002

0.0002





57


1.1823


-0.00055


0.031852


-0.0261


-0.018

-

0.0364

-

0.0206


0.00516


-0.03062


-0.0012

-

0.0234


0.0004


0.000549




58


1.2389


-0.00182


0.024928


0.0485


-0.007

-

0.0244

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


0.06807


0.0084


-0.006


0.00043




59


1.1805


0.00404


0.035905


0.04682


0.0479


0.0488


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


0.02064

-

0.0112


-0.007


0.000619




60


1.1685


-0.00026


0.018268


-0.0455


-0.038


0.0099

-

0.0188


-0.0297


-0.00894


-0.0233

-

0.0032


0.0206


0.000315














AR(bquan)


0.01607

-

0.0073


0.0021



0.0108


0.0003587

GMD









VAR(bquan)

0.00012

0.0001

0.0001





61


1.0088


0.0059


0.055668


-0.0266


-0.027

- 0.0112

- 0.0206


0.00516


-0.03062


-0.0117

- 0.0384


0.0137


0.00096




62


1.1142


-0.001


0.031686


0.04464


0.0171

-

0.0336


0.0185


0.00986


0.000312


0.02502


0.0071


-0.033


0.000546




63


1.1744


0.00206


0.04233


0.0483


0.0488


0.0491


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


0.02421

-

0.0081


-0.004


0.00073




64


1.3278


-0.00211


0.027425


-0.05


0.0474


-0.005

-

0.0349


0.0375


-0.00737


-0.0015

-

0.0003


0.0069


0.000473













AR(bquan)


0.009

-

0.0099


-0.004


-

0.0051


0.0005079

PVT









VAR(bquan)

0.00017

0.0002

0.0002





65


1.0635


-0.00398


0.034575


-0.0274


-0.042

-

0.0392

-

0.0135


-0.0103


-0.02061


-0.0091

-

0.0273


-0.013


0.000596




66


1.0312


-0.00204


0.044061


-0.0398


0

-

0.0415

-

0.0134


0.03286


0.002507


-0.024

-

0.0318


-0.042


0.00076




67


1.2345


-0.00109


0.020677


0.02532


0.0494


0.0471


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


0.00326

-

0.0071


-0.006


0.000357




68


1.2459


0.00312


0.019228


0


-0.007

-

0.0397

-

0.0057


-0.008


-0.03393


0.00401


0.0003


-6E-04


0.000332













AR(bquan)


-0.0064

-

0.0165


-0.015


-

0.0383


0.0003832

DHG









VAR(bquan)

0.00013

0.0001

0.0001





69


0.4882


0.00412


0.033217


0


0.0242

-

0.0296

-

0.0206


0.00516


-0.03062


0.00594


0.0176


-0.019


0.000573




70


0.7505


-0.00221


0.03479


-0.0252


0

-

0.0086

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


-0.0122


0.0102


0.0036


0.0006



71

0.6324

-0.0031

0.032184

0

0.0455

0.0435

0.0018

0.02571

0.023647

0.00198

0.0323

0.0316

0.000555




72


0.6977


0.00284


0.030516


0


-0.009


0

-

0.0089


-0.029


0.01375


0.00339


0.0084


-0.012


0.000526












AR(bquan)

-0.0002

0.0171

0.001


0.0179

0.0004225

BMI









VAR(bquan)

0.00014

0.0001

0.0001





73


1.2222


-0.00441


0.028471


0.01931


0.0227

-

0.0444


0.0041


-0.0046


0.002529


0.01872


0.0327


-0.043


0.000491



74

1.2599

-0.00046

0.044302

0.04727

0.0486

0.0232

0.0472

0.03299

-0.01433

-0.0118

0.0075

0.0417

0.000764




75

1.027

0.00405

0.044604

-0.0244

0.025

0.0488

0.0122

0.00644

0.018751

-0.041

0.0143

0.0255

0.000769




76


1.1731


-0.00155


0.035274


0


0


0.0424

-

0.0074


0.01324


0.007813


0.0102


-0.014


0.0348


0.000608












AR(bquan)

-0.006

0.0102

0.0147


0.0189

0.0004935

DPR









VAR(bquan)

0.00016

0.0002

0.0002




77

1.1386

-0.00032

0.022606

-0.0303

0.0469

0.0448

0.0031

0.00909

-0.01349

-0.0335

0.0368

0.0605

0.00039




78


1.0772


-0.00054


0.031927


-0.0398


0.0244


0.031

-

0.0368


0.0086


0.007324


0.0004


0.0157


0.0236


0.00055




79


1.0413


0.00038


0.036585


0.04965


-0.032


0.0488

-

0.0097


-0.004


0.035594


0.0594

-

0.0278


0.0114


0.000631



80

0.8862

-0.00183

0.047707

-0.0097

0.0098

-0.029

0.0069

-0.0188

-0.02968

-0.014

0.0282

-9E-04

0.000823












AR(bquan)

0.00308

0.0132

0.0236


0.04

0.0004488

MPC









VAR(bquan)

0.00015

0.0001

0.0001





81


1.3965


0.00538


0.046416


0.04816


0.0378

-

0.0495


0.0335


-0.0012


-0.03747


-0.004


0.0341


-0.003


0.0008



82

0.9011

0.00341

0.036417

-0.0297

0.0153

0.0038

0.0129

0.00677

-0.01363

-0.0448

0.0058

0.0126

0.000628



83

0.6943

0.00438

0.034256

0.03125

0.0485

0.0462

0.0184

0.02419

-0.00974

0.01411

0.0273

0.0486

0.000591




84


0.9459


0.0023


0.029228


-0.0192


-0.02


0.02

-

0.0339


-0.0303


-0.00094


0.01056


0.0068


0.0186


0.000504












AR(bquan)

-0.006

0.0185

0.0193


0.0318

0.000473

SAM









VAR(bquan)

0.00016

0.0002

0.0002





85


1.0929


-0.00134


0.030696


-0.0389


-0.041

-

0.0422

-

0.0135


-0.0103


-0.02061


-0.0228

-

0.0279


-0.018


0.000529




86


1.1356


2.3E-05


0.047148


0.04912


0.0468


0.0479


0.0351


0.04724


0.032988


0.00925

-

0.0068


0.0104


0.000813




87


1.0085


0.00688


0.033721


-0.0463


-0.049


0.0459

-

0.0168


0.01223


0.006439


-0.0362

-

0.0678


0.0325


0.000581




88


1.2746


9.1E-05


0.010042


-0.0472


0.0083


0.0082

-

0.0005


-0.0057


-0.00801


-0.0467


0.0155


0.0183


0.000173













AR(bquan)


-0.0241

-

0.0218


0.0107


-

0.0352


0.0003931

CII









VAR(bquan)

0.00013

0.0001

0.0001




89

0.7902

0.00504

0.034258

0.04615

0.0441

0

0.0212

-0.0074

0.026717

0.0244

0.0449

-0.026

0.000591




90


1.1771


-0.00173


0.030372


-0.0361


-0.003

-

0.0075

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


-0.0175


0.0118


0.01


0.000524




91


1.1881


0.00166


0.033967


0.02333


0.0489


0.0497


0.0188


0.04667


0.043607


-0.0006

-

0.0083


-0.004


0.000586





92


1.0129


0.00333


0.028095


-0.0485


0.0392


0.0189

-

0.0129


0.00694


-0.00372


-0.0388


0.0289


0.0193


0.000484












AR(bquan)

-0.0081

0.0193

-2E-04


0.011

0.0004096

TDH









VAR(bquan)

0.00014

0.0001

0.0001





93


1.1718


0.0026


0.038449


0


-0.017

-

0.0437


0.0031


0.00909


-0.01349


-0.0062

-

0.0305


-0.03


0.000663




94


1.1224


0.00197


0.016869


0.04861


-0.033

-

0.0137


0.033


-0.0143


-0.01067


0.00962


-0.019


-0.004


0.000291



95

1.0808

0.00444

0.015579

0.01896

0.0233

0.0136

0.0122

0.00644

0.018751

0.0013

0.0119

-0.011

0.000269




96


1.2719


0.00449


0.034249


0.00946


-0.006

-

0.0063


0.0036


0.00694


-0.01877


0.0004

-

0.0196


0.0131


0.000591













AR(bquan)


0.00127

-

0.0143


-0.008


-

0.0211


0.0003399

TRC









VAR(bquan)

0.00011

0.0001

0.0001




97

1.0119

0.00205

0.029126

0.03597

0.0347

0

0.0178

0.02115

-0.00742

0.01596

0.0113

0.0055

0.000502




98


0.8855


0.00342


0.036931


-0.0192


-0.02


0

-

0.0143


-0.0107


-0.01338


-0.01

-

0.0136


0.0084


0.000637




99


0.9871


0.00281


0.037196


-0.0276


0.0496


0.0101

-

0.0168


0.01223


0.006439


-0.0138


0.0348


0.001


0.000641



100

1.2115

-0.00288

0.049476

-0.0043

-0.013

0.0173

0.0069

-0.0188

-0.02968

-0.0098

0.0128

0.0562

0.000853












AR(bquan)

-0.0044

0.0113

0.0178


0.0247

0.0004937










VAR(bquan)








Chú thích:

- i, i : Các tham số từ mô hình thị trường

- SS(res): Tổng bình phương phần dư

- Ri1, Ri2, Ri3: lợi nhuận của chứng khoán i trong ngày 0, 1, 2 của cửa sổ sự kiện

- Rm1, Rm2, Rm3: lợi nhuận của chỉ số Vnindex trong ngày 0, 1, 2 của cửa sổ sự kiện

- ARi1, ARi2, ARi3: lợi nhuận khác thường của chứng khoán i trong ngày 0, 1, 2 của cửa sổ sự kiện

- VAR(res): phương sai của phần dư ước lượng được từ mô hình thị trường

- CARi, VAR(CAR): lợi nhuận khác thường cộng dồn và phương sai tương ứng của chứng khoán thứ i trong cửa sổ sự kiện.

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