Ước lượng mức dự trữ ngoại hối tối ưu của Việt Nam - 39

CHI PHÍ VỠ NỢ

(C0)

CHI PHÍ

CƠ HỘI

(r)

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI (R)

XÁC UẤT V NỢ

( )

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU (R*)

Q1.2005

8,582,103,000

0.1082

8,067,889,609

0.95523

69,145,368,023

Q2.2005

8,582,103,000

0.1088

8,008,941,800

0.82018

67,119,658,191

Q3.2005

8,582,103,000

0.1108

8,752,768,928

0.78418

64,013,621,384

Q4.2005

8,582,103,000

0.1133

9,216,467,261

0.92656

63,767,428,785

Q1.2006

8,582,103,000

0.1118

10,907,963,064

0.85311

61,364,486,712

Q2.2006

8,582,103,000

0.1118

11,458,391,867

0.84319

60,397,156,888

Q3.2006

8,582,103,000

0.1118

12,068,741,898

0.84537

59,569,855,096

Q4.2006

8,582,103,000

0.1118

13,590,986,809

0.85828

57,692,497,127

Q1.2007

8,582,103,000

0.1118

18,533,442,260

0.90483

52,095,267,727

Q2.2007

8,582,103,000

0.1118

21,001,961,710

0.90484

48,810,014,957

Q3.2007

8,582,103,000

0.1118

22,813,103,339

0.86060

44,838,570,873

Q4.2007

8,582,103,000

0.1118

23,747,734,370

0.96685

47,182,657,467

Q1.2008

8,582,103,000

0.1232

26,743,982,118

0.97077

36,481,958,353

Q2.2008

8,582,103,000

0.1664

22,559,770,745

0.95387

23,092,149,548

Q3.2008

8,582,103,000

0.2010

24,135,804,456

0.89609

10,259,317,889

Q4.2008

8,582,103,000

0.1408

24,175,912,526

0.96819

30,880,433,623

Q1.2009

8,582,103,000

0.0954

23,308,237,839

0.85710

57,208,645,178

Q2.2009

8,582,103,000

0.0957

20,565,930,669

0.84671

60,425,269,995

Q3.2009

8,582,103,000

0.1019

19,091,125,421

0.87469

57,935,262,001

Q4.2009

8,582,103,000

0.1098

16,803,158,161

0.97588

57,424,772,150

Q1.2010

8,582,103,000

0.1200

14,214,886,167

0.91163

52,738,854,445

Q2.2010

8,582,103,000

0.1344

14,523,730,028

0.90278

44,480,174,284

Q3.2010

8,582,103,000

0.1317

14,537,105,505

0.89201

45,537,286,683

Q4.2010

8,582,103,000

0.1393

12,926,169,011

0.96728

45,515,013,439

Q1.2011

8,582,103,000

0.1605

12,681,708,961

0.95909

37,546,815,155

Q2.2011

8,582,103,000

0.1802

15,723,825,677

0.92467

27,146,302,139

Q3.2011

8,582,103,000

0.1791

15,873,716,575

0.92483

27,247,163,836

Q4.2011

8,582,103,000

0.1584

14,045,561,449

0.96564

36,662,774,098

Q1.2012

8,582,103,000

0.1530

18,340,324,556

0.94974

32,835,783,749

Q2.2012

8,582,103,000

0.1387

20,623,332,502

0.93788

35,393,239,980

Q3.2012

8,582,103,000

0.1249

22,244,353,172

0.96674

41,000,923,586

Q4.2012

8,582,103,000

0.1223

26,112,815,991

0.79044

30,387,047,091

Q1.2013

8,582,103,000

0.1168

28,867,374,222

0.94190

36,567,036,270

Q2.2013

8,582,103,000

0.1008

25,296,578,364

0.91792

51,950,693,088

Q3.2013

8,582,103,000

0.0969

24,858,376,566

0.92065

56,049,010,458

Q4.2013

8,582,103,000

0.0963

26,287,179,896

0.86646

52,581,187,519

Q1.2014

8,582,103,000

0.0948

34,175,088,881

0.90450

45,025,395,700

Q2.2014

8,582,103,000

0.0828

36,228,183,481

0.85473

52,603,061,774

Q3.2014

8,582,103,000

0.0840

37,217,799,550

0.83519

48,501,121,066

Q4.2014

8,582,103,000

0.0816

34,575,170,166

0.86638

57,111,480,034

Q1.2015

8,582,103,000

0.0723

37,296,744,236

0.88156

67,749,535,553

CHI PHÍ VỠ NỢ

(C0)

CHI PHÍ

CƠ HỘI

(r)

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI (R)

XÁC UẤT V NỢ

( )

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU (R*)

Q2.2015

8,582,103,000

0.0723

37,686,617,675

0.88156

67,216,922,460

Q3.2015

8,582,103,000

0.0696

31,024,749,237

0.84100

78,878,529,113

Q4.2015

8,582,103,000

0.0696

28,615,884,805

0.89680

84,877,735,815

Q1.2016

8,582,103,000

0.0696

32,016,963,829

0.87918

79,448,725,168

Q2.2016

8,582,103,000

0.0696

35,415,985,640

0.82207

71,422,418,330

Q3.2016

8,582,103,000

0.0696

38,054,895,541

0.79589

65,722,644,800

Q4.2016

8,582,103,000

0.0696

36,905,580,573

0.82378

69,352,423,502

Q1.2017

8,582,103,000

0.0696

38,232,435,679

0.85294

69,323,508,406

Q2.2017

8,582,103,000

0.0696

39,601,245,068

0.81521

64,802,906,476

Q3.2017

8,582,103,000

0.0711

41,775,108,127

0.79692

57,573,646,768

Q4.2017

8,582,103,000

0.0740

49,497,307,812

0.77406

38,964,383,609

DTNH THỰC TẾ (USD)

DTNH TỐI ƯU

(USD)

CHÊNH LỆCH GIỮA DTNHTT VÀ TU

Q1.2005

8,067,889,609

69,145,368,023

-61,077,478,414

Q2.2005

8,008,941,800

67,119,658,191

-59,110,716,391

Q3.2005

8,752,768,928

64,013,621,384

-55,260,852,456

Q4.2005

9,216,467,261

63,767,428,785

-54,550,961,524

Q1.2006

10,907,963,064

61,364,486,712

-50,456,523,648

Q2.2006

11,458,391,867

60,397,156,888

-48,938,765,021

Q3.2006

12,068,741,898

59,569,855,096

-47,501,113,198

Q4.2006

13,590,986,809

57,692,497,127

-44,101,510,318

Q1.2007

18,533,442,260

52,095,267,727

-33,561,825,467

Q2.2007

21,001,961,710

48,810,014,957

-27,808,053,247

Q3.2007

22,813,103,339

44,838,570,873

-22,025,467,534

Q4.2007

23,747,734,370

47,182,657,467

-23,434,923,097

Q1.2008

26,743,982,118

36,481,958,353

-9,737,976,235

Q2.2008

22,559,770,745

23,092,149,548

-532,378,803

Q3.2008

24,135,804,456

10,259,317,889

13,876,486,567

Q4.2008

24,175,912,526

30,880,433,623

-6,704,521,097

Q1.2009

23,308,237,839

57,208,645,178

-33,900,407,339

Q2.2009

20,565,930,669

60,425,269,995

-39,859,339,326

Q3.2009

19,091,125,421

57,935,262,001

-38,844,136,580

Q4.2009

16,803,158,161

57,424,772,150

-40,621,613,989

Q1.2010

14,214,886,167

52,738,854,445

-38,523,968,278

Q2.2010

14,523,730,028

44,480,174,284

-29,956,444,256

Q3.2010

14,537,105,505

45,537,286,683

-31,000,181,178

Q4.2010

12,926,169,011

45,515,013,439

-32,588,844,428

Q1.2011

12,681,708,961

37,546,815,155

-24,865,106,194

Q2.2011

15,723,825,677

27,146,302,139

-11,422,476,462

Q3.2011

15,873,716,575

27,247,163,836

-11,373,447,261

Q4.2011

14,045,561,449

36,662,774,098

-22,617,212,649

Q1.2012

18,340,324,556

32,835,783,749

-14,495,459,193

Q2.2012

20,623,332,502

35,393,239,980

-14,769,907,478

Q3.2012

22,244,353,172

41,000,923,586

-18,756,570,414

Q4.2012

26,112,815,991

30,387,047,091

-4,274,231,100

Q1.2013

28,867,374,222

36,567,036,270

-7,699,662,048

Q2.2013

25,296,578,364

51,950,693,088

-26,654,114,724

Q3.2013

24,858,376,566

56,049,010,458

-31,190,633,892

Q4.2013

26,287,179,896

52,581,187,519

-26,294,007,623

Q1.2014

34,175,088,881

45,025,395,700

-10,850,306,819

Q2.2014

36,228,183,481

52,603,061,774

-16,374,878,293

Q3.2014

37,217,799,550

48,501,121,066

-11,283,321,516

DTNH THỰC TẾ

(USD)

DTNH TỐI ƯU

(USD)

CHÊNH LỆCH GIỮA

DTNHTT VÀ TU

Q4.2014

34,575,170,166

57,111,480,034

-22,536,309,868

Q1.2015

37,296,744,236

67,749,535,553

-30,452,791,317

Q2.2015

37,686,617,675

67,216,922,460

-29,530,304,785

Q3.2015

31,024,749,237

78,878,529,113

-47,853,779,876

Q4.2015

28,615,884,805

84,877,735,815

-56,261,851,010

Q1.2016

32,016,963,829

79,448,725,168

-47,431,761,339

Q2.2016

35,415,985,640

71,422,418,330

-36,006,432,690

Q3.2016

38,054,895,541

65,722,644,800

-27,667,749,259

Q4.2016

36,905,580,573

69,352,423,502

-32,446,842,929

Q1.2017

38,232,435,679

69,323,508,406

-31,091,072,727

Q2.2017

39,601,245,068

64,802,906,476

-25,201,661,408

Q3.2017

41,775,108,127

57,573,646,768

-15,798,538,641

Q4.2017

49,497,307,812

38,964,383,609

10,532,924,203