Phụ lục 11. Kết quả chạy Crystal Ball giá bán căn hộ, giá đất tính theo giá nhà nước
Run preferences:
10.000 | |
Extreme speed | |
Monte Carlo | |
Random seed | |
Precision control on | |
Confidence level | 95,00% |
Có thể bạn quan tâm!
-
Chi Phí Vận Hành, Quản Lý Và Bảo Trì (Tỷ Đồng) -
Thiết Kế, Quy Hoạch Chi Tiết Dự Án Bình Hòa -
Chi Phí Vận Hành, Quản Lý Và Bảo Trì (Tỷ Đồng) -
Thẩm định dự án khu chung cư - văn phòng cho thuê Bình Hòa - 12
Xem toàn bộ 96 trang tài liệu này.
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 4,60
Trials/second (average) 2.172
Random numbers per sec 2.172
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions 1
Correlations 0
Correlated groups 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 6
Forecasts
Worksheet: [VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Forecast: IRR chủ đầu tư, danh nghĩa
Summary:
Entire range is from 34,74% to 45,21% Base case is 40,58%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%
Statistics:
Forecast values
Trials 10.000
Mean 40,53%
Median 40,59%
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 1,42%
Variance 0,02%
Skewness -0,1898
Kurtosis 3,09
Coeff. of Variability 0,0350
Minimum 34,74%
Maximum 45,21%
Range Width 10,48%
Mean Std. Error 0,01%
Forecast: IRR chủ đầu tư, danh nghĩa (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Forecast values
0% 34,74%
10% 38,68%
20% 39,36%
30% 39,80%
40% 40,21%
50% 40,59%
60% 40,93%
70% 41,30%
80% 41,72%
90% 42,32%
100% 45,21%
Forecast: IRR chủ đầu tư, thực
Summary:
Entire range is from 24,75% to 34,46% Base case is 30,17%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%
Statistics:
Forecast values
Trials 10.000
Mean 30,12%
Median 30,17%
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 1,31%
Variance 0,02%
Skewness -0,1898
Kurtosis 3,09
Coeff. of Variability 0,0436
Minimum 24,75%
Maximum 34,46%
Range Width 9,70%
Mean Std. Error 0,01%
Forecast: IRR chủ đầu tư, thực (cont'd)
Forecast
Percentiles: values
0% 24,75%
10% 28,41%
20% 29,04%
30% 29,45%
40% 29,83%
50% 30,17%
60% 30,49%
70% 30,83%
80% 31,22%
90% 31,78%
100% 34,46%
Forecast: IRR dự án, danh nghĩa
Summary:
Entire range is from 30,28% to 39,04% Base case is 35,13%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%
Statistics:
Forecast values
Trials 10.000
Mean 35,09%
Median 35,14%
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 1,19%
Variance 0,01%
Skewness -0,1766
Kurtosis 3,09
Coeff. of Variability 0,0339
Minimum 30,28%
Maximum 39,04%
Range Width 8,76%
Mean Std. Error 0,01%
Forecast: IRR dự án, danh nghĩa (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Forecast values
0% 30,28%
10% 33,55%
20% 34,11%
30% 34,49%
40% 34,83%
50% 35,14%
60% 35,43%
70% 35,73%
80% 36,09%
90% 36,59%
100% 39,04%
Forecast: IRR dự án, thực
Summary:
Entire range is from 20,6% to 28,7% Base case is 25,1%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,0%
Statistics:
Forecast values
Trials 10.000
Mean 25,1%
Median 25,1%
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 1,1%
Variance 0,0%
Skewness -0,1766
Kurtosis 3,09
Coeff. of Variability 0,0439
Minimum 20,6%
Maximum 28,7%
Range Width 8,1%
Mean Std. Error 0,0%
Forecast: IRR dự án, thực (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Forecast values
0% 20,6%
10% 23,7%
20% 24,2%
30% 24,5%
40% 24,8%
50% 25,1%
60% 25,4%
70% 25,7%
80% 26,0%
90% 26,5%
100% 28,7%
Forecast: NPV chủ đầu tư
Summary:
Entire range is from 662,42 to 1573,80 Base case is 1116,17
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,25
Statistics:
Forecast values
Trials 10.000
Mean 1115,84
Median 1116,73
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 125,36
Variance 15714,57
Skewness 0,0097
Kurtosis 3,02
Coeff. of Variability 0,1123
Minimum 662,42
Maximum 1573,80
Range Width 911,39
Mean Std. Error 1,25
Forecast: NPV chủ đầu tư (cont'd)
Forecast values | |
0% | 662,42 |
10% | 954,97 |
20% | 1011,03 |
30% | 1048,64 |
40% | 1084,08 |
50% | 1116,70 |
60% | 1147,87 |
70% | 1180,92 |
80% | 1220,18 |
90% | 1277,16 |
100% | 1573,80 |
Forecast: NPV dự án
Summary:
Entire range is from 646,88 to 1558,26 Base case is 1100,63
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1,25
Forecast values | ||
Trials | 10.000 | |
Mean | 1100,30 | |
Median | 1101,19 | |
Mode | --- | |
Standard Deviation | 125,36 | |
Variance | 15714,57 | |
Skewness | 0,0097 | |
Kurtosis | 3,02 | |
Coeff. of Variability | 0,1139 | |
Minimum | 646,88 | |
Maximum | 1558,26 | |
Range Width | 911,39 | |
Mean Std. Error | 1,25 | |
Forecast: NPV dự án (cont'd) | ||
Percentiles: | Forecast values | |
0% | 646,88 | |
10% | 939,43 | |
20% | 995,49 | |
30% | 1033,10 | |
40% | 1068,54 | |
50% | 1101,16 | |
60% | 1132,33 | |
70% | 1165,38 | |
80% | 1204,64 | |
90% | 1261,62 | |
100% | 1558,26 | |
End of Forecasts | ||
Assumptions | ||
Worksheet: [VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat | ||
Assumption: USD/m2/tháng |
Bao cao Quy3/2009 cua CBRE
Normal distribution with parameters: Mean 30,00
Std. Dev. 3,00
End of Assumptions
Phụ lục 12. Kết quả chạy Crystal Ball đối với giá bán căn hộ, giá đất là giá thị trường
Run preferences:
10.000 | |
Extreme speed | |
Monte Carlo | |
Random seed | |
Precision control on | |
Confidence level | 95,00% |
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 3,32
Trials/second (average) 3.011
Random numbers per sec 3.011
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions 1
Correlations 0
Correlated groups 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 6
Forecasts
Worksheet: [VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Forecast: IRR chủ đầu tư, danh nghĩa
Summary:
Entire range is from 16,66% to 23,58% Base case is 20,56%
After 10.000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0,01%
