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Nghiên cứu dự báo phân bổ nhu cầu đi lại theo phương thức vận tải trong các đô thị Việt Nam - 24


Pr(choice = XEDAP|1 selected) = .01975975

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

variable | dp/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| [ 95% C.I. ] X

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

casevars |


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Phụ lục 4g. Đối với phương thức xe đạp


-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

TGT


|









DIBO

|

2.5e-06

3.6e-07

6.88

0.000

1.8e-06

3.2e-06

79.401


KHAC

|

.000021

2.7e-06

7.74

0.000

.000016

.000027

22.86


METRO

|

.000581

.000043

13.55

0.000

.000497

.000664

9.8254


OTO

|

.000014

1.9e-06

7.28

0.000

.00001

.000018

22.863


TAXI

|

.000016

2.2e-06

7.39

0.000

.000012

.00002

22.863


XEBUS

|

.000055

5.5e-06

9.89

0.000

.000044

.000065

22.781


XEDAP

|

-.002264

.000165

-13.75

0.000

-.002587

-.001941

28.647


XEMAY

|

.001575

.000116

13.60

0.000

.001348

.001802

17.313


XEOM

|

8.0e-07

3.2e-07

2.49

0.013

1.7e-07

1.4e-06

17.172

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

TGN


|









DIBO

|

.000027

4.7e-06

5.75

0.000

.000018

.000036

0


KHAC

|

.000232

.000032

7.19

0.000

.000169

.000295

.00362


METRO

|

.006342

.000572

11.09

0.000

.005221

.007462

10


OTO

|

.000151

.000022

6.81

0.000

.000108

.000195

0


TAXI

|

.000177

.000026

6.88

0.000

.000126

.000227

.000402


XEBUS

|

.000595

.000064

9.28

0.000

.00047

.000721

29.904


XEDAP

|

-.024733

.002181

-11.34

0.000

-.029008

-.020458

0


XEMAY

|

.0172

.001524

11.29

0.000

.014214

.020187

0


XEOM

|

8.7e-06

3.5e-06

2.47

0.014

1.8e-06

.000016

0

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CP


|









DIBO

|

8.3e-07

1.5e-07

5.54

0.000

5.4e-07

1.1e-06

0


KHAC

|

7.2e-06

1.0e-06

7.00

0.000

5.2e-06

9.2e-06

.1096


METRO

|

.000197

.000019

10.61

0.000

.000161

.000234

13.84


OTO

|

4.7e-06

7.0e-07

6.73

0.000

3.3e-06

6.1e-06

10.213


TAXI

|

5.5e-06

5.8e-07

9.44

0.000

4.4e-06

6.6e-06

85.596


XEBUS

|

.000019

2.2e-06

8.45

0.000

.000014

.000023

4.5338


XEDAP

|

-.000769

.000071

-10.77

0.000

-.000909

-.000629

.14245


XEMAY

|

.000535

.00005

10.67

0.000

.000436

.000633

3.8608


XEOM

|

2.7e-07

1.1e-07

2.50

0.012

5.9e-08

4.8e-07

57.137

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CT


|









DIBO

|

.000127

.000034

3.75

0.000

.000061

.000194

0


KHAC

|

.001101

.000277

3.97

0.000

.000558

.001644

.0001


METRO

|

.030083

.006757

4.45

0.000

.016839

.043327

.01011


OTO

|

.000717

.000182

3.94

0.000

.00036

.001074

.006241


TAXI

|

.000838

.000198

4.24

0.000

.000451

.001225

.052435


XEBUS

|

.002825

.000672

4.20

0.000

.001508

.004142

.002525


XEDAP

|

-.117324

.026484

-4.43

0.000

-.169232

-.065416

.000228


XEMAY

|

.081592

.018492

4.41

0.000

.045349

.117835

.002336


XEOM

|

.000041

.000019

2.24

0.025

5.2e-06

.000078

.034921

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Nghiên cứu dự báo phân bổ nhu cầu đi lại theo phương thức vận tải trong các đô thị Việt Nam - 24



TN | -9.0e-06

4.3e-07 -21.15

0.000 -9.9e-06 -8.2e-06

4994.9

CH | .018565

.0036 5.16

0.000 .011509 .025621

.87759


Pr(choice = XEMAY|1 selected) = .68169707

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

variable | dp/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| [ 95% C.I. ] X

Phụ lục 4h. Đối với phương thức xe máy


-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

TGT


|









DIBO

|

.000085

9.8e-06

8.67

0.000

.000066

.000104

79.401


KHAC

|

.000733

.00008

9.19

0.000

.000577

.000889

22.86


METRO

|

.020028

.00054

37.07

0.000

.018969

.021087

9.8254


OTO

|

.000477

.000057

8.45

0.000

.000367

.000588

22.863


TAXI

|

.000558

.000066

8.43

0.000

.000428

.000688

22.863


XEBUS

|

.001881

.000138

13.61

0.000

.00161

.002151

22.781


XEDAP

|

.001575

.000116

13.60

0.000

.001348

.001802

28.647


XEMAY

|

-.025364

.000622

-40.76

0.000

-.026583

-.024144

17.313


XEOM

|

.000028

.000011

2.52

0.012

6.1e-06

.000049

17.172

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

TGN


|









DIBO

|

.000925

.000137

6.78

0.000

.000658

.001193

0


KHAC

|

.008007

.000943

8.49

0.000

.00616

.009855

.00362


METRO

|

.218785

.011594

18.87

0.000

.196061

.241509

10


OTO

|

.005216

.000663

7.87

0.000

.003917

.006515

0


TAXI

|

.006095

.000777

7.85

0.000

.004572

.007617

.000402


XEBUS

|

.020543

.001615

12.72

0.000

.017377

.023709

29.904


XEDAP

|

.0172

.001524

11.29

0.000

.014214

.020187

0


XEMAY

|

-.277073

.014213

-19.49

0.000

-.304929

-.249217

0


XEOM

|

.000302

.00012

2.51

0.012

.000066

.000537

0

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CP


|









DIBO

|

.000029

4.5e-06

6.46

0.000

.00002

.000037

0


KHAC

|

.000249

.00003

8.24

0.000

.00019

.000308

.1096


METRO

|

.006801

.000395

17.23

0.000

.006027

.007574

13.84


OTO

|

.000162

.000021

7.80

0.000

.000121

.000203

10.213


TAXI

|

.000189

.000015

12.73

0.000

.00016

.000219

85.596


XEBUS

|

.000639

.000058

10.94

0.000

.000524

.000753

4.5338


XEDAP

|

.000535

.00005

10.67

0.000

.000436

.000633

.14245


XEMAY

|

-.008613

.00048

-17.95

0.000

-.009553

-.007672

3.8608


XEOM

|

9.4e-06

3.7e-06

2.54

0.011

2.1e-06

.000017

57.137

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CT


|









DIBO

|

.004389

.001083

4.05

0.000

.002266

.006512

0


KHAC

|

.037984

.009005

4.22

0.000

.020335

.055633

.0001


METRO

|

1.03784

.216164

4.80

0.000

.614162

1.46151

.01011


OTO

|

.024743

.005922

4.18

0.000

.013136

.036351

.006241


TAXI

|

.02891

.006397

4.52

0.000

.016372

.041448

.052435


XEBUS

|

.097449

.021657

4.50

0.000

.055003

.139895

.002525


XEDAP

|

.081592

.018492

4.41

0.000

.045349

.117835

.000228


XEMAY

|

-1.31433

.273995

-4.80

0.000

-1.85135

-.777313

.002336


XEOM

|

.001431

.000627

2.28

0.023

.000201

.00266

.034921

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

casevars |

TN | 9.1e-06

1.7e-06

5.50

0.000

5.9e-06

.000012

4994.9

CH | .109858

.018461

5.95

0.000

.073675

.146041

.87759

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Phụ lục 4i. Đối với phương thức xe ôm


Pr(choice = XEOM|1 selected) = .00034644

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

variable | dp/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| [ 95% C.I. ] X

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------- TGT |

DIBO | 4.3e-08 . . . . . 79.401

KHAC | 3.7e-07 . . . . . 22.86

METRO | .00001 . . . . . 9.8254

OTO | 2.4e-07 . . . . . 22.863

TAXI | 2.8e-07 . . . . . 22.863

XEBUS | 9.6e-07 . . . . . 22.781

XEDAP | 8.0e-07 . . . . . 28.647

XEMAY | .000028 . . . . . 17.313

XEOM | -.00004 . . . . . 17.172

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------- TGN |

DIBO | 4.7e-07 . . . . . 0

KHAC | 4.1e-06 00362

METRO | .000111 . . . . . 10

OTO | 2.7e-06 . . . . . 0

TAXI | 3.1e-06 000402

XEBUS | .00001 . . . . . 29.904

XEDAP | 8.7e-06 . . . . . 0

XEMAY | .000302 . . . . . 0

XEOM | -.000442 . . . . . 0

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CP |

DIBO | 1.5e-08 . . . . . 0

KHAC | 1.3e-07 1096

METRO | 3.5e-06 . . . . . 13.84

OTO | 8.2e-08 . . . . . 10.213

TAXI | 9.6e-08 . . . . . 85.596

XEBUS | 3.2e-07 . . . . . 4.5338

XEDAP | 2.7e-07 . . . . . .14245

XEMAY | 9.4e-06 . . . . . 3.8608

XEOM | -.000014 . . . . . 57.137

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

CT |

DIBO | 2.2e-06 . . . . . 0

KHAC | .000019 0001

METRO | .000527 01011

OTO | .000013 . . . . . .006241 TAXI | .000015 . . . . . .052435 XEBUS | .00005 . . . . . .002525 XEDAP | .000041 000228

XEMAY | .001431 . . . . . .002336 XEOM | -.002098 . . . . . .034921

-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------

casevars |

TN | -7.5e-08 . . . . . 4994.9

CH | -.001585 . . . . . .87759

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Phụ lục 5a. Công thức tính xác suất lựa chọn phương thức vận tải theo mô hình MH5 (đơn vị: %)

Xác suất chọn đi bộ:


𝑝𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂

= 𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )

Xác suất chọn phương thức khác:


𝑝𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶

= 𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )


Xác suất chọn ô tô:


𝑝𝑂𝑇𝑂

= 𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )


Xác suất chọn TAXI:

𝑝𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 = 𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 / (𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )


Xác suất chọn xe buýt:

𝑝𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 =

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 / (𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )

Xác suất chọn xe đạp:

𝑝𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 =

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )


Xác suất chọn xe máy:

𝑝𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 = 𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )

Xác suất chọn xe ôm:


𝑝𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀

= 𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 /

(𝑒−9,067827+3,511957𝐶𝐻+3,71.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒3,960927−2,345925𝐶𝐻−1,86.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒0,6284157−2,417663𝐶𝐻+9,68.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒43,5422−1,961617𝐶𝐻−1,344.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,5753208+1,040565𝐶𝐻−4,381.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒−0,6394166−4,781718𝐶𝐻−3,077.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 +

𝑒−2,85582+0,1419767𝐶𝐻−1,332.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.181658𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,451482𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,063868𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−11,24384𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 )


Phụ lục 5b. Công thức tính xác suất lựa chọn phương thức vận tải theo mô hình MHMETRO (đơn vị: %)

Xác suất chọn đi bộ:


𝑝𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂

= 𝑒2,966935−2,516121𝐶𝐻−2,65.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 /

(𝑒−7,533833+3,017437𝐶𝐻+2,155.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒2,966935−2,516121𝐶𝐻−2,65.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒−2,894652+0,920553𝐶𝐻−2,004.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 +

𝑒11,75996−0,499287𝐶𝐻+3,51.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂 +

𝑒1,293522−2,242785𝐶𝐻+5,87.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒−38,34651−2,116661𝐶𝐻−2,002.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,7091006+0,7784058𝐶𝐻−4,706.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

𝑒−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑀𝐴𝑌 +

𝑒0,0113391−4,736579𝐶𝐻−2,29.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝑂𝑀 )

Xác suất chọn phương thức khác:


𝑝𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶

= 𝑒−2,894652+0,920553𝐶𝐻−2,004.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 /

(𝑒−7,533833+3,017437𝐶𝐻+2,155.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑂𝑇𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑂𝑇𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑂𝑇𝑂 +

𝑒2,966935−2,516121𝐶𝐻−2,65.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐷𝐼𝐵𝑂 +

𝑒−2,894652+0,920553𝐶𝐻−2,004.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝐾𝐻𝐴𝐶 +

𝑒11,75996−0,499287𝐶𝐻+3,51.10−6𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑀𝐸𝑇𝑅𝑂 +

𝑒1,293522−2,242785𝐶𝐻+5,87.10−5𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑇𝐴𝑋𝐼 +

𝑒−38,34651−2,116661𝐶𝐻−2,002.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐵𝑈𝑌𝑇 +

𝑒−0,7091006+0,7784058𝐶𝐻−4,706.10−4𝑇𝑁−0.1168913𝑇𝐺𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−1,276916𝑇𝐺𝑁𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−0,0396926𝐶𝑃𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃−6,05722𝐶𝑇𝑋𝐸𝐷𝐴𝑃 +

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Ngày đăng: 09/06/2022