Tác động của thương mại quốc tế đến vấn đề việc làm ở Việt Nam - 25


2.3. Ước lượng mô hình GMM 2 bước với biến phụ thuộc là lnfelabor (3)



Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation Number of obs

=

420

Group variable: indcode_2 Number of groups Time variable: year

Obs per group:

min

=


=

84


5

avg

=

5

max

=

5

Number of instruments = 39 Wald chi2(21)

=

652.40

Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Two-step results

(Std. Err. adjusted for clustering


on


indcode_2)

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Tác động của thương mại quốc tế đến vấn đề việc làm ở Việt Nam - 25



lnfemale


Coef.

WC-Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

lnfemale







L1.

.3451178

.0767426

4.50

0.000

.194705

.4955306

L2.

.0548087

.1100275

0.50

0.618

-.1608412

.2704587

lnW







--.

-.0616277

.0274545

-2.24

0.025

-.1154375

-.0078179

L1.

.0264919

.0221284

1.20

0.231

-.0168789

.0698627

lnVa







--.

.2808768

.054845

5.12

0.000

.1733826

.388371

L1.

-.0783675

.0444791

-1.76

0.078

-.1655448

.0088099

L2.

.004322

.0361528

0.12

0.905

-.0665361

.0751802

lnw_s







--.

1.316855

.8868541

1.48

0.138

-.4213468

3.055057

L1.

-.7866189

.6284602

-1.25

0.211

-2.018378

.4451404

L2.

-.550258

.405252

-1.36

0.175

-1.344537

.2440213

LnEX







--.

-.0063637

.0051245

-1.24

0.214

-.0164074

.0036801

L1.

.0567199

.0206175

2.75

0.006

.0163104

.0971294

L2.

-.05038

.0256206

-1.97

0.049

-.1005954

-.0001645

LnIM







--.

.0012133

.0098941

0.12

0.902

-.0181788

.0206054

L1.

-.0199919

.0099636

-2.01

0.045

-.0395201

-.0004637

L2.

.0620013

.0213104

2.91

0.004

.0202337

.103769

year4

.0135329

.0184256

0.73

0.463

-.0225807

.0496464

year5

.0671425

.0259648

2.59

0.010

.0162524

.1180326

year6

.0014944

.0386353

0.04

0.969

-.0742293

.0772181

year7

.0663481

.0492458

1.35

0.178

-.0301719

.1628681

year8

.037973

.055051

0.69

0.490

-.069925

.145871


Instruments for differenced equation GMM-type: L(2/.).lnfemale

Standard: D.lnW LD.lnW D.lnVa LD.lnVa L2D.lnVa D.lnw_s LD.lnw_s L2D.lnw_s D.LnEX LD.LnEX L2D.LnEX D.LnIM LD.LnIM L2D.LnIM D.year4 D.year5 D.year6 D.year7 D.year8


3.1 Ước lượng GMM biến phụ thuộc là LnShare



Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data

estimation

Number of obs

=

384

Group variable: indcode_2


Number of groups

=

81

Time variable: year







Obs per group:





min

=

2



avg

=

4.740741



max

=

5


Number of instruments = 36 Wald chi2(18) = 163.04

Prob > chi2 = 0.0000

One-step results


lnShare

Coef.

Std. Err.

z

P>|z|

[95% Conf.

Interval]

lnShare







L1.

.1041697

.0809758

1.29

0.198

-.0545399

.2628793

L2.

.1212934

.0546506

2.22

0.026

.0141801

.2284067

lnwlh







--.

.0861297

.1045327

0.82

0.410

-.1187507

.29101

L1.

-.0249623

.1022812

-0.24

0.807

-.2254296

.1755051

lnVa







--.

-.0323976

.048226

-0.67

0.502

-.1269189

.0621237

L1.

-.0310444

.0472341

-0.66

0.511

-.1236216

.0615328

L2.

.005932

.0486595

0.12

0.903

-.0894388

.1013029

LnEX







--.

-.0167894

.0295765

-0.57

0.570

-.0747582

.0411795

L1.

.0425946

.0710665

0.60

0.549

-.0966931

.1818823

L2.

.088487

.0683083

1.30

0.195

-.0453947

.2223688

LnIM







--.

.0610086

.0429169

1.42

0.155

-.0231069

.1451241

L1.

-.0194685

.0546766

-0.36

0.722

-.1266327

.0876957

L2.

.0146184

.0799641

0.18

0.855

-.1421084

.1713452

year4

-.1099377

.0462711

-2.38

0.018

-.2006274

-.0192481

year5

-.3174826

.0619717

-5.12

0.000

-.4389449

-.1960202

year6

-.3158879

.0860717

-3.67

0.000

-.4845854

-.1471904

year7

-.3016661

.1016471

-2.97

0.003

-.5008907

-.1024416

year8

-.267446

.1110318

-2.41

0.016

-.4850643

-.0498277


Instruments for differenced equation GMM-type: L(2/.).lnShare

Standard: D.lnwlh LD.lnwlh D.lnVa LD.lnVa L2D.lnVa D.LnEX LD.LnEX L2D.LnEX D.LnIM LD.LnIM L2D.LnIM D.year4 D.year5 D.year6 D.year7 D.year8


3.2 Ước lượng GMM biến phụ thuộc là LnShare, sử dụng phương sai mạnh


Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation Number of obs

=

384

Group variable: indcode_2 Number of groups Time variable: year

Obs per group:

min

=


=

81


2

avg

=

4.740741

max

=

5

Number of instruments = 36 Wald chi2(18)

=

142.45

Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

One-step results

(Std. Err. adjusted for clustering


on


indcode_2)



lnShare


Coef.

Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

lnShare







L1.

.1041697

.1070515

0.97

0.331

-.1056473

.3139868

L2.

.1212934

.0483555

2.51

0.012

.0265183

.2160685

lnwlh







--.

.0861297

.1200219

0.72

0.473

-.149109

.3213683

L1.

-.0249623

.0935194

-0.27

0.790

-.2082569

.1583324

lnVa







--.

-.0323976

.0430025

-0.75

0.451

-.1166809

.0518857

L1.

-.0310444

.045445

-0.68

0.495

-.120115

.0580262

L2.

.005932

.0670862

0.09

0.930

-.1255546

.1374186

LnEX







--.

-.0167894

.0120491

-1.39

0.163

-.0404052

.0068264

L1.

.0425946

.066414

0.64

0.521

-.0875744

.1727636

L2.

.088487

.0521013

1.70

0.089

-.0136297

.1906038

LnIM







--.

.0610086

.0359823

1.70

0.090

-.0095154

.1315325

L1.

-.0194685

.0417948

-0.47

0.641

-.1013849

.0624479

L2.

.0146184

.0572718

0.26

0.799

-.0976322

.1268689

year4

-.1099377

.0421861

-2.61

0.009

-.192621

-.0272545

year5

-.3174826

.0744077

-4.27

0.000

-.463319

-.1716461

year6

-.3158879

.0894912

-3.53

0.000

-.4912873

-.1404884

year7

-.3016661

.1159516

-2.60

0.009

-.528927

-.0744052

year8

-.267446

.1229186

-2.18

0.030

-.508362

-.02653


Instruments for differenced equation GMM-type: L(2/.).lnShare

Standard: D.lnwlh LD.lnwlh D.lnVa LD.lnVa L2D.lnVa D.LnEX LD.LnEX L2D.LnEX D.LnIM LD.LnIM L2D.LnIM D.year4 D.year5 D.year6 D.year7 D.year8


3.3 Ước lượng GMM 2 bước biến phụ thuộc là LnShare


Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation Number of obs

=

384

Group variable: indcode_2 Number of groups Time variable: year

Obs per group:

min

=


=

81


2

avg

=

4.740741

max

=

5

Number of instruments = 36 Wald chi2(18)

=

113.10

Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Two-step results

(Std. Err. adjusted for clustering


on


indcode_2)



lnShare


Coef.

WC-Robust Std. Err.


z


P>|z|


[95% Conf.


Interval]

lnShare







L1.

.0304072

.1573392

0.19

0.847

-.2779719

.3387863

L2.

.0645148

.051094

1.26

0.207

-.0356275

.1646572

lnwlh







--.

.0835878

.1440994

0.58

0.562

-.1988418

.3660174

L1.

.0080571

.09596

0.08

0.933

-.180021

.1961352

lnVa







--.

-.0335881

.0439002

-0.77

0.444

-.1196309

.0524548

L1.

-.0724435

.047909

-1.51

0.131

-.1663434

.0214565

L2.

-.0084681

.0739436

-0.11

0.909

-.1533948

.1364587

LnEX







--.

-.0097198

.0098053

-0.99

0.322

-.0289379

.0094983

L1.

-.0076233

.0535679

-0.14

0.887

-.1126144

.0973678

L2.

.0415417

.0409681

1.01

0.311

-.0387542

.1218376

LnIM







--.

.045663

.0367655

1.24

0.214

-.026396

.117722

L1.

.0283295

.0403914

0.70

0.483

-.0508362

.1074952

L2.

.0544629

.0467601

1.16

0.244

-.0371851

.1461109

year4

-.1337692

.0420448

-3.18

0.001

-.2161755

-.0513629

year5

-.3265182

.0763932

-4.27

0.000

-.4762461

-.1767903

year6

-.3804038

.1042729

-3.65

0.000

-.584775

-.1760326

year7

-.3405774

.1334856

-2.55

0.011

-.6022045

-.0789504

year8

-.3051872

.1398614

-2.18

0.029

-.5793105

-.0310638


Instruments for differenced equation GMM-type: L(2/.).lnShare

Standard: D.lnwlh LD.lnwlh D.lnVa LD.lnVa L2D.lnVa D.LnEX LD.LnEX L2D.LnEX D.LnIM LD.LnIM L2D.LnIM D.year4 D.year5 D.year6 D.year7 D.year8

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