Bảng Tính Dtnhtu Việt Nam Theo Cung Tiền Rộng M2 Giai Đoạn 2005

Phụ lục 1.5. Bảng tính DTNHTU Việt Nam theo cung tiền rộng M2 giai đoạn 2005 – 2017

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU CỦA VIỆT NAM THEO CUNG TIỀN RỘNG M2

GIAI ĐOẠN 2005 – 2017

NĂM

DTNH THỰC TẾ (USD)	CUNG TIỀN RỘNG M2 (USD)	TỐC ĐỘ TĂNG CỦA M2 (%)	TỶ LỆ DTNH/M2 (%)	DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU (USD)	CHÊNH LỆCH GIỮA DTNHTT VÀ DTNHTU (USD)
2005	9,216,467,261	40,875,510,000		22.55	8,175,102,000	1,041,365,261
2006	13,590,986,809	52,295,930,000	27.94	25.99	10,459,186,000	3,131,800,809
2007	23,747,734,370	77,807,260,000	48.78	30.52	15,561,452,000	8,186,282,370
2008	24,175,912,525	91,190,720,000	17.20	26.51	18,238,144,000	5,937,768,525
2009	16,803,158,161	106,486,320,000	16.77	15.78	21,297,264,000	-4,494,105,839
2010	12,926,169,011	130,905,890,000	22.93	9.87	26,181,178,000	-13,255,008,989
2011	14,045,561,449	133,299,960,000	1.83	10.54	26,659,992,000	-12,614,430,551
2012	26,112,815,991	165,893,000,000	24.45	15.74	33,178,600,000	-7,065,784,009
2013	26,287,179,896	199,402,000,000	20.20	13.18	39,880,400,000	-13,593,220,104
2014	34,575,170,166	236,404,000,000	18.56	14.63	47,280,800,000	-12,705,629,834
2015	28,615,884,805	263,656,300,000	11.53	10.85	52,731,260,000	-24,115,375,195
2016	36,905,580,573	307,319,800,000	16.56	12.01	61,463,960,000	-24,558,379,427
2017	49,497,307,812	346,438,580,000	12.73	14.29	69,287,716,000	-19,790,408,188
Tốc độ tăng trung bình của cung tiền rộng M2 giai đoạn 2010 – 2017			16.10

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Xem toàn bộ 313 trang tài liệu này.

Nguồn : IFS, CEIC Data (2018) và tác giả tính toán

Phụ lục 1.6. Bảng tính DTNHTU Việt Nam theo phương pháp ARA EM giai đoạn 2005 – 2017

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU VIỆT NAM THEO PHƯƠNG PHÁP ARA EM GIAI ĐOẠN 2005 – 2017

ĐVT: USD

NĂM

DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI THỰC TẾ	NỢ NƯỚC NGOÀI NGẮN HẠN	VỐN ĐẦU TƯ GIÁN TIẾP	CUNG TIỀN RỘNG M2	DOANH SỐ XUẤT KHẨU	DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU	CHÊNH LỆCH GIỮA DTNHTT VÀ DTNHTU
2005	9,216,467,261	2,040,424,000	1,205,000,000	40,875,510,000	32,544,162,630	6,151,318,963	3,065,148,298
2006	13,590,986,809	2,439,000,000	2,518,000,000	52,295,930,000	39,912,369,460	7,841,333,446	5,749,653,363
2007	23,747,734,370	4,390,000,000	8,761,000,000	77,807,260,000	48,653,225,108	11,824,885,511	11,922,848,859
2008	24,175,912,525	4,200,704,000	8,183,000,000	91,190,720,000	62,830,579,693	13,739,405,169	10,436,507,356
2009	16,803,158,161	4,779,000,000	8,311,000,000	106,486,320,000	57,554,706,246	14,175,686,625	2,627,471,536
2010	12,926,169,011	6,928,431,000	10,694,000,000	130,905,890,000	70,292,144,819	17,791,838,282	-4,865,669,271
2011	14,045,561,449	10,778,000,000	11,758,000,000	133,299,960,000	93,441,682,598	21,594,166,260	-7,548,604,811
2012	26,112,815,991	12,347,097,000	13,021,000,000	165,893,000,000	111,350,146,795	25,737,993,780	374,822,211
2013	26,287,179,896	12,166,322,000	14,407,000,000	199,402,000,000	128,807,744,123	29,382,171,012	-3,094,991,116
2014	34,575,170,166	13,601,348,000	14,500,000,000	236,404,000,000	145,936,697,447	33,394,274,145	1,180,896,021
2015	28,615,884,805	11,987,955,000	14,435,000,000	263,656,300,000	160,012,724,180	35,667,473,918	-7,051,589,113
2016	36,905,580,573	14,007,649,000	14,483,000,000	307,319,800,000	175,637,622,200	40,028,646,920	-3,123,066,347
2017	49,497,307,812	21,900,000,000	16,372,000,000	346,438,580,000	210,099,766,590	48,176,305,659	1,321,002,153

Nguồn : IFS, World Bank, CEIC Data, Bloomberg (2018) và tác giả tính toán

PHỤ LỤC 2

ƯỚC LƯỢNG MỨC DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI TỐI ƯU BẰNG PHƯƠNG PHÁP DỰA THEO CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN DỰ TRỮ NGOẠI HỐI

Phụ lục 2.1. Bảng dữ liệu thu thập đã được xử lý giai đoạn 2005 - 2017

BẢNG DỮ LIỆU THU THẬP ĐÃ ĐƯỢC XỬ LÝ GIAI ĐOẠN 2005 – 2017

Quý

Dự trữ ngoại hối	GDP danh nghĩa hiện hành	Doanh số nhập khẩu	Doanh số xuất khẩu	Vốn đầu tư gián tiếp	Tỷ giá cuối quý VCB	Lãi suất cho vay VND
ĐVT	USD	USD	USD	USD	USD	VND/USD	%/năm
Q1.2005	8,067,889,609	10,379,360,465.12	8,025,788,519	7,423,680,638	340,000,000	15,824	10.82
Q2.2005	8,008,941,800	13,603,295,942.55	9,827,694,518	7,514,021,417	340,000,000	15,856	10.88
Q3.2005	8,752,768,928	12,951,037,603.40	9,149,133,675	9,062,125,953	340,000,000	15,896	11.08
Q4.2005	9,216,467,261	15,790,500,246.64	9,785,445,714	8,544,334,622	1,205,000,000	15,917	11.33
Q1.2006	10,907,963,064	11,571,616,871.70	9,353,322,507	9,196,828,794	1,403,000,000	15,932	11.18
Q2.2006	11,458,391,867	15,092,445,139.92	11,841,413,697	9,768,021,855	1,677,000,000	15,997	11.18
Q3.2006	12,068,741,898	15,366,020,200.63	11,779,266,292	10,914,699,006	1,879,000,000	16,056	11.18
Q4.2006	13,590,986,809	18,623,296,797.40	11,945,218,140	10,032,819,805	2,518,000,000	16,055	11.18
Q1.2007	18,533,442,260	13,159,313,572.54	12,200,505,379	10,559,189,665	3,609,000,000	16,025	11.18
Q2.2007	21,001,961,710	17,421,685,435.89	15,104,839,453	11,469,822,631	5,109,000,000	16,136	11.18
Q3.2007	22,813,103,339	18,315,336,395.30	15,680,946,460	12,917,463,609	7,172,000,000	16,100	11.18
Q4.2007	23,747,734,370	22,470,726,355.47	19,786,961,679	13,706,749,203	8,761,000,000	16,030	11.18
Q1.2008	26,743,982,118	15,762,158,808.93	21,388,439,242	14,573,683,109	10,028,000,000	16,120	12.32
Q2.2008	22,559,770,745	21,386,855,676.94	23,021,281,926	15,852,671,073	9,794,000,000	16,844	16.64
Q3.2008	24,135,804,456	24,012,417,523.76	19,663,834,199	18,057,514,763	9,641,000,000	16,620	20.10
Q4.2008	24,175,912,526	23,347,146,281.58	16,651,081,275	14,346,710,748	8,183,000,000	17,486	14.08
Q1.2009	23,308,237,839	17,477,586,788.00	13,458,910,480	15,015,210,698	7,609,000,000	17,802	9.54
Q2.2009	20,565,930,669	23,621,227,885.33	16,908,404,940	13,586,915,859	7,742,000,000	17,801	9.57
Q3.2009	19,091,125,421	23,756,126,193.21	18,698,737,176	14,295,442,677	7,901,000,000	17,841	10.19
Q4.2009	16,803,158,161	24,889,579,940.86	20,892,670,263	14,657,137,012	8,311,000,000	18,479	10.98
Q1.2010	14,214,886,167	18,999,738,219.90	18,036,948,186	14,505,575,871	9,601,000,000	19,100	12.00
Q2.2010	14,523,730,028	25,775,130,890.05	20,742,598,898	17,108,796,707	10,081,000,000	19,100	13.44
Q3.2010	14,537,105,505	25,183,900,120.82	20,515,760,836	19,430,834,129	10,248,000,000	19,500	13.17
Q4.2010	12,926,169,011	31,626,564,102.56	24,082,960,304	19,246,938,112	10,694,000,000	19,500	13.93

Q1.2011

12,681,708,961	21,124,198,947.87	22,156,609,355	19,768,714,007	10,912,000,000	20,910	16.05
Q2.2011	15,723,825,677	30,763,773,894.03	26,720,800,699	21,976,892,741	11,235,000,000	20,620	18.02
Q3.2011	15,873,716,575	30,199,672,353.45	26,609,234,283	26,411,624,196	11,581,000,000	20,834	17.91
Q4.2011	14,045,561,449	38,497,589,640.17	28,951,029,396	25,284,451,654	11,758,000,000	21,036	15.84
Q1.2012	18,340,324,556	26,163,326,941.51	24,918,190,715	25,342,416,934	12,532,000,000	20,860	15.30
Q2.2012	20,623,332,502	33,696,983,691.70	28,056,632,459	26,461,421,545	12,822,000,000	20,925	13.87
Q3.2012	22,244,353,172	34,531,316,161.04	27,563,090,328	30,057,041,623	13,021,000,000	20,900	12.49
Q4.2012	26,112,815,991	61,189,341,566.24	31,141,695,528	29,489,266,693	13,021,000,000	20,860	12.23
Q1.2013	28,867,374,222	32,617,748,091.60	28,983,831,548	29,357,891,489	13,406,000,000	20,960	11.68
Q2.2013	25,296,578,364	38,802,204,738.59	32,211,452,650	30,694,335,324	14,113,000,000	21,200	10.08
Q3.2013	24,858,376,566	43,096,650,764.89	32,914,466,345	33,837,880,251	14,031,000,000	21,140	9.69
Q4.2013	26,287,179,896	55,152,603,505.51	35,184,159,598	34,917,637,059	14,407,000,000	21,125	9.63
Q1.2014	34,175,088,881	35,822,253,787.88	31,960,492,930	33,249,643,311	14,419,000,000	21,120	9.48
Q2.2014	36,228,183,481	42,275,967,185.90	34,304,295,166	35,482,518,660	14,730,000,000	21,360	8.28
Q3.2014	37,217,799,550	48,015,013,279.58	36,009,846,926	38,135,568,154	14,681,000,000	21,195	8.40
Q4.2014	34,575,170,166	58,070,863,033.82	42,549,498,904	39,068,967,322	14,500,000,000	21,380	8.16
Q1.2015	37,296,744,236	37,465,632,237.15	41,013,230,505	37,557,862,948	14,447,000,000	21,590	7.23
Q2.2015	37,686,617,675	43,998,195,601.68	43,232,283,596	39,294,906,729	14,607,000,000	21,840	7.23
Q3.2015	31,024,749,237	45,208,317,874.19	43,932,052,259	42,406,584,572	14,528,000,000	22,510	6.96
Q4.2015	28,615,884,805	59,346,576,558.50	47,606,851,292	40,753,369,931	14,435,000,000	22,540	6.96
Q1.2016	32,016,963,829	38,088,017,917.13	39,573,435,037	40,539,466,126	14,369,000,000	22,325	6.96
Q2.2016	35,415,985,640	46,060,281,098.09	46,221,420,963	42,420,917,216	14,678,000,000	22,340	6.96
Q3.2016	38,054,895,541	51,863,700,089.33	47,340,781,729	45,605,756,149	15,039,000,000	22,335	6.96
Q4.2016	36,905,580,573	61,606,302,409.61	52,156,300,468	47,071,482,709	14,483,000,000	22,785	6.96
Q1.2017	38,232,435,679	40,877,885,037.30	47,680,692,821	44,488,249,810	15,192,000,000	22,790	6.96
Q2.2017	39,601,245,068	49,540,296,780.88	52,962,645,037	50,721,754,245	15,635,000,000	22,770	6.96
Q3.2017	41,775,108,127	55,946,273,366.35	56,062,691,567	56,121,716,683	16,005,000,000	22,760	7.11
Q4.2017	49,497,307,812	73,823,580,883.20	62,985,104,117	58,768,045,852	16,372,000,000	22,735	7.40

Nguồn : IFS, GSO, Bloomberg, CEIC Data, NHNN (2018) và tác giả xử lý dữ liệu

Phụ lục 2.2. Tính biến số biến động xuất khẩu

Phụ lục 2.2.1. BẢNG TÍNH KẾT QUẢ BIẾN ĐỘNG XUẤT KHẨU THEO QUÝ

GIAI ĐOẠN 2004 - 2017

QUÝ

DOANH SỐ XUẤT KHẨU (USD)	TỶ LỆ THAY ĐỔI XUẤT KHẨU (expch)	PHƯƠNG SAI CÓ ĐIỀU KIỆN (ht)	BIẾN ĐỘNG XUẤT KHẨU (ĐỘ LỆCH CHUẨN - expv)
Q1.2003	4,821,607,259	/	/	/
Q2.2003	4,993,292,460	/	/	/
Q3.2003	5,451,881,656	/	/	/
Q4.2003	4,893,631,604	/	/	/
Q1.2004	5,900,151,520	0.22369	0.01710	0.13077
Q2.2004	6,178,940,315	0.23745	0.01710	0.13077
Q3.2004	7,427,864,196	0.36244	0.00734	0.08569
Q4.2004	7,023,297,857	0.43519	0.00767	0.08757
Q1.2005	7,423,680,638	0.25822	0.02085	0.14440
Q2.2005	7,514,021,417	0.21607	0.03700	0.19235
Q3.2005	9,062,125,953	0.22002	0.00858	0.09265
Q4.2005	8,544,334,622	0.21657	0.00726	0.08519
Q1.2006	9,196,828,794	0.23885	0.00729	0.08540
Q2.2006	9,768,021,855	0.29997	0.00726	0.08521
Q3.2006	10,914,699,006	0.20443	0.00771	0.08783
Q4.2006	10,032,819,805	0.17421	0.01196	0.10937
Q1.2007	10,559,189,665	0.14813	0.00726	0.08521
Q2.2007	11,469,822,631	0.17422	0.00801	0.08951
Q3.2007	12,917,463,609	0.18349	0.00953	0.09761
Q4.2007	13,706,749,203	0.36619	0.00801	0.08951
Q1.2008	14,573,683,109	0.38019	0.00767	0.08756
Q2.2008	15,852,671,073	0.38212	0.02153	0.14673
Q3.2008	18,057,514,763	0.39791	0.02422	0.15561
Q4.2008	14,346,710,748	0.04669	0.02460	0.15686
Q1.2009	15,015,210,698	0.03030	0.02795	0.16717
Q2.2009	13,586,915,859	-0.14293	0.02304	0.15179
Q3.2009	14,295,442,677	-0.20834	0.02636	0.16236
Q4.2009	14,657,137,012	0.02164	0.08082	0.28428
Q1.2010	14,505,575,871	-0.03394	0.11058	0.33253
Q2.2010	17,108,796,707	0.25921	0.02824	0.16806
Q3.2010	19,430,834,129	0.35923	0.04243	0.20598
Q4.2010	19,246,938,112	0.31314	0.00864	0.09295
Q1.2011	19,768,714,007	0.36284	0.02028	0.14241
Q2.2011	21,976,892,741	0.28454	0.01345	0.11599
Q3.2011	26,411,624,196	0.35926	0.02092	0.14465
Q4.2011	25,284,451,654	0.31369	0.01047	0.10234
Q1.2012	25,342,416,934	0.28195	0.02029	0.14243
Q2.2012	26,461,421,545	0.20406	0.01352	0.11627

QUÝ

DOANH SỐ XUẤT KHẨU (USD)	TỶ LỆ THAY ĐỔI XUẤT KHẨU (expch)	PHƯƠNG SAI CÓ ĐIỀU KIỆN (ht)	BIẾN ĐỘNG XUẤT KHẨU (ĐỘ LỆCH CHUẨN - expv)
Q3.2012	30,057,041,623	0.13802	0.01025	0.10125
Q4.2012	29,489,266,693	0.16630	0.00726	0.08522
Q1.2013	29,357,891,489	0.15845	0.01033	0.10163
Q2.2013	30,694,335,324	0.15997	0.00839	0.09158
Q3.2013	33,837,880,251	0.12579	0.00883	0.09398
Q4.2013	34,917,637,059	0.18408	0.00874	0.09349
Q1.2014	33,249,643,311	0.13256	0.01146	0.10706
Q2.2014	35,482,518,660	0.15600	0.00765	0.08745
Q3.2014	38,135,568,154	0.12701	0.01081	0.10399
Q4.2014	39,068,967,322	0.11889	0.00899	0.09479
Q1.2015	37,557,862,948	0.12957	0.01134	0.10649
Q2.2015	39,294,906,729	0.10744	0.01218	0.11035
Q3.2015	42,406,584,572	0.11200	0.01109	0.10532
Q4.2015	40,753,369,931	0.04311	0.01349	0.11615
Q1.2016	40,539,466,126	0.07939	0.01295	0.11379
Q2.2016	42,420,917,216	0.07955	0.02374	0.15407
Q3.2016	45,605,756,149	0.07544	0.01736	0.13175
Q4.2016	47,071,482,709	0.15503	0.01733	0.13166
Q1.2017	44,488,249,810	0.09741	0.01798	0.13408
Q2.2017	50,721,754,245	0.19568	0.00905	0.09512
Q3.2017	56,121,716,683	0.23058	0.01477	0.12152
Q4.2017	58,768,045,852	0.24849	0.00737	0.08583

Nguồn : International Financial Statistics – IFS (2018) và tác giả tính toán

Phụ lục 2.2.2. KIỂM ĐỊNH HIỆU ỨNG ARCH CỦA BIẾN expch

. edit

. *(2 variables, 56 observations pasted into data editor)

. tsset stt

time variable: stt, 1 to 56

delta: 1 unit

Source	SS	df	MS
Model	0	0	.
Residual	.911910867	55	.016580198
Total	.911910867	55	.016580198

. reg expch

Number of

obs =	56
F( 0,	55) =	0.00
Prob > F	=	.
R-squared	=	0.0000

Adj R-squared = 0.0000 Root MSE = .12876

expch

Coef.	Std. Err.	t	P>\|t\|	[95% Conf.	Interval]
_cons	.1891332	.0172068	10.99	0.000	.15465	.2236165

. estat archlm, lags(1/8)

LM test for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)

lags(p)

chi2	df	Prob > chi2
1	15.693	1	0.0001
2	15.264	2	0.0005
3	15.419	3	0.0015
4	16.370	4	0.0026
5	17.372	5	0.0038
6	17.613	6	0.0073
7	18.249	7	0.0109
8	18.128	8	0.0203

H0: no ARCH effects vs. H1: ARCH(p) disturbance

Nguồn : Tác giả xử lý và copy từ phần mềm Stata 13.0