Hoàn thiện cơ chế điều hành lãi suất của Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam trong điều kiện nền kinh tế thị trường - 29



Bảng 8: Kiểm định tính chuẩn cho mô hình VAR với DCV



VAR Residual Normality Tests

Orthogonalization: Cholesky (Lutkepohl)

Null Hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal

Date: 05/11/17 Time: 01:57

Sample: 2005M01 2016M10

Included observations: 133


Component


Skewness


Chi-sq


df


Prob.

1

0.679809

10.24412

1

0.0014

2

0.554182

6.807770

1

0.0091

3

0.277004

1.700880

1

0.1922

4

0.162693

0.586728

1

0.4437

5

0.154381

0.528311

1

0.4673

6

0.431168

4.120909

1

0.0424

Joint


23.98872

6

0.0005


Component


Kurtosis


Chi-sq


df


Prob.

1

3.168619

0.157563

1

0.6914

2

4.803444

18.02377

1

0.0000

3

3.471892

1.234028

1

0.2666

4

2.230895

3.278018

1

0.0702

5

1.487148

12.68333

1

0.0004

6

2.393206

2.040437

1

0.1532

Joint


37.41714

6

0.0000


Component


Jarque-Bera


df


Prob.


1

10.40168

2

0.0055


2

24.83154

2

0.0000


3

2.934908

2

0.2305


4

3.864746

2

0.1448


5

13.21164

2

0.0014


6

6.161346

2

0.0459


Joint

61.40586

12

0.0000


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Hoàn thiện cơ chế điều hành lãi suất của Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam trong điều kiện nền kinh tế thị trường - 29


Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả từ Eviews 6

Mặc dù P.Value < 5% song do số quan sát là 136 quan sát > 60, theo quy luật số lớn, mô hình gần với phân phối chuẩn.



Bảng 9: Kết quả ước lượng mô hình VAR với biến DTG



Vector Autoregression Estimates

Date: 05/11/17 Time: 01:57

Sample (adjusted): 2005M10 2016M10

Included observations: 133 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in { }


DTCK

DTCV

DTT

DQD_SA

DCPI_SA

DTG

DTCK(-1)

-0.507363

0.271844

0.017459

0.301408

0.398995

0.324136


(0.18534)

(0.15209)

(0.22451)

(0.54206)

(0.23193)

(0.15664)


{-2.73749}

{ 1.78741}

{ 0.07777}

{ 0.55604}

{ 1.72036}

{ 2.06931}

DTCK(-2)

-0.144030

0.215564

0.264304

0.655623

0.049020

-0.133304


(0.23686)

(0.19437)

(0.28693)

(0.69275)

(0.29640)

(0.20018)


{-0.60807}

{ 1.10905}

{ 0.92115}

{ 0.94641}

{ 0.16538}

{-0.66590}

DTCK(-3)

-0.254039

0.086248

0.013735

-0.032465

-0.038303

-0.159329


(0.23497)

(0.19281)

(0.28463)

(0.68720)

(0.29403)

(0.19858)


{-1.08117}

{ 0.44731}

{ 0.04826}

{-0.04724}

{-0.13027}

{-0.80233}

DTCK(-4)

0.095703

0.365296

0.473764

0.423639

0.409794

0.329839


(0.23485)

(0.19272)

(0.28449)

(0.68687)

(0.29388)

(0.19849)


{ 0.40750}

{ 1.89548}

{ 1.66530}

{ 0.61677}

{ 1.39441}

{ 1.66178}

DTCK(-5)

0.317661

0.608429

1.090238

0.336534

0.495553

0.704263


(0.23713)

(0.19459)

(0.28725)

(0.69354)

(0.29674)

(0.20041)


{ 1.33959}

{ 3.12672}

{ 3.79539}

{ 0.48524}

{ 1.67001}

{ 3.51407}

DTCK(-6)

-0.008911

0.273412

0.528323

0.914668

0.272889

0.352459


(0.24105)

(0.19780)

(0.29200)

(0.70498)

(0.30164)

(0.20372)


{-0.03697}

{ 1.38225}

{ 1.80936}

{ 1.29743}

{ 0.90470}

{ 1.73011}

DTCK(-7)

-0.306969

0.042118

0.721134

0.681330

0.133919

0.098395


(0.21811)

(0.17898)

(0.26421)

(0.63790)

(0.27293)

(0.18433)


{-1.40742}

{ 0.23532}

{ 2.72942}

{ 1.06809}

{ 0.49067}

{ 0.53379}

DTCK(-8)

-0.218729

0.068825

0.428288

0.179020

0.099372

0.117175


(0.16204)

(0.13297)

(0.19629)

(0.47391)

(0.20277)

(0.13695)


{-1.34985}

{ 0.51760}

{ 2.18194}

{ 0.37775}

{ 0.49007}

{ 0.85562}

DTCV(-1)

1.018590

0.099288

-0.273268

0.346250

-0.475085

-0.037065


(0.21415)

(0.17573)

(0.25941)

(0.62632)

(0.26798)

(0.18099)


{ 4.75644}

{ 0.56500}

{-1.05341}

{ 0.55283}

{-1.77285}

{-0.20479}

DTCV(-2)

0.052128

-0.727928

0.076532

-0.829548

-0.476455

-0.568748


(0.29197)

(0.23959)

(0.35369)

(0.85393)

(0.36536)

(0.24676)


{ 0.17854}

{-3.03818}

{ 0.21638}

{-0.97144}

{-1.30406}

{-2.30484}

DTCV(-3)

-0.122000

-0.135382

-0.335438

-1.334658

0.005536

0.377254


(0.32798)

(0.26914)

(0.39731)

(0.95925)

(0.41043)

(0.27720)


{-0.37197}

{-0.50301}

{-0.84428}

{-1.39135}

{ 0.01349}

{ 1.36096}

DTCV(-4)

-0.115672

-0.518192

-0.621312

-0.442806

-0.743773

-0.595105


(0.32082)

(0.26326)

(0.38863)

(0.93829)

(0.40146)

(0.27114)


{-0.36056}

{-1.96835}

{-1.59874}

{-0.47193}

{-1.85269}

{-2.19484}


DTCV(-5)

-0.514544

-0.661956

-1.359312

-0.941132

-0.637811

-0.952784


(0.31379)

(0.25750)

(0.38012)

(0.91775)

(0.39267)

(0.26520)


{-1.63976}

{-2.57072}

{-3.57603}

{-1.02548}

{-1.62430}

{-3.59267}

DTCV(-6)

-0.213467

-0.550957

-1.040801

-0.759833

-0.570440

-0.850446


(0.32615)

(0.26764)

(0.39509)

(0.95390)

(0.40813)

(0.27565)


{-0.65450}

{-2.05857}

{-2.63433}

{-0.79656}

{-1.39768}

{-3.08525}

DTCV(-7)

0.001543

-0.093938

-0.448099

-1.095216

-0.085065

-0.013477


(0.31296)

(0.25681)

(0.37911)

(0.91530)

(0.39162)

(0.26450)


{ 0.00493}

{-0.36579}

{-1.18199}

{-1.19656}

{-0.21721}

{-0.05095}

DTCV(-8)

0.650876

0.377280

0.073412

0.138817

-0.014592

0.258839


(0.25100)

(0.20597)

(0.30405)

(0.73410)

(0.31409)

(0.21213)


{ 2.59312}

{ 1.83171}

{ 0.24145}

{ 0.18910}

{-0.04646}

{ 1.22017}

DTT(-1)

0.003774

-0.188737

0.139001

-0.016909

0.070789

-0.223360


(0.09832)

(0.08068)

(0.11910)

(0.28755)

(0.12303)

(0.08310)


{ 0.03838}

{-2.33929}

{ 1.16708}

{-0.05880}

{ 0.57537}

{-2.68800}

DTT(-2)

0.009656

0.099671

-0.011103

-0.335348

0.069812

0.014774


(0.10212)

(0.08380)

(0.12370)

(0.29867)

(0.12779)

(0.08631)


{ 0.09456}

{ 1.18940}

{-0.08975}

{-1.12281}

{ 0.54631}

{ 0.17119}

DTT(-3)

-0.019492

-0.029894

0.004300

0.212749

-0.093577

-0.205343


(0.09239)

(0.07582)

(0.11192)

(0.27022)

(0.11562)

(0.07809)


{-0.21097}

{-0.39428}

{ 0.03842}

{ 0.78731}

{-0.80936}

{-2.62967}

DTT(-4)

-0.022742

0.057784

0.138675

-0.140733

0.121487

0.198744


(0.09174)

(0.07528)

(0.11113)

(0.26832)

(0.11480)

(0.07754)


{-0.24789}

{ 0.76754}

{ 1.24780}

{-0.52450}

{ 1.05821}

{ 2.56321}

DTT(-5)

0.116904

0.098889

-0.005450

0.296656

-0.005418

0.086081


(0.08916)

(0.07316)

(0.10800)

(0.26075)

(0.11157)

(0.07535)


{ 1.31123}

{ 1.35167}

{-0.05046}

{ 1.13769}

{-0.04856}

{ 1.14241}

DTT(-6)

-0.029828

-0.030358

-0.285294

0.080567

0.086049

0.088924


(0.08152)

(0.06689)

(0.09875)

(0.23841)

(0.10201)

(0.06889)


{-0.36592}

{-0.45384}

{-2.88916}

{ 0.33793}

{ 0.84356}

{ 1.29074}

DTT(-7)

0.094614

-0.000520

0.161630

0.107565

-0.068602

-0.026295


(0.08332)

(0.06837)

(0.10093)

(0.24368)

(0.10426)

(0.07042)


{ 1.13554}

{-0.00760}

{ 1.60139}

{ 0.44141}

{-0.65797}

{-0.37342}

DTT(-8)

-0.092856

-0.061508

-0.035023

-0.379141

0.155486

-0.101343


(0.08218)

(0.06744)

(0.09955)

(0.24034)

(0.10283)

(0.06945)


{-1.12994}

{-0.91210}

{-0.35182}

{-1.57749}

{ 1.51201}

{-1.45916}

DQD_SA(-1)

0.042935

0.055447

0.087762

-0.510746

0.152815

0.118275


(0.04333)

(0.03556)

(0.05249)

(0.12673)

(0.05422)

(0.03662)


{ 0.99082}

{ 1.55929}

{ 1.67192}

{-4.03005}

{ 2.81818}

{ 3.22954}

DQD_SA(-2)

-0.025406

-0.001684

0.110983

-0.116886

0.024934

0.134488


(0.05427)

(0.04453)

(0.06574)

(0.15871)

(0.06791)

(0.04586)


{-0.46817}

{-0.03781}

{ 1.68829}

{-0.73646}

{ 0.36717}

{ 2.93235}

DQD_SA(-3)

0.025593

-0.007997

0.045239

0.220348

0.167627

0.047695



(0.05828)

(0.04782)

(0.07059)

(0.17044)

(0.07292)

(0.04925)


{ 0.43916}

{-0.16722}

{ 0.64084}

{ 1.29282}

{ 2.29864}

{ 0.96838}

DQD_SA(-4)

0.139559

0.035847

0.132654

0.195661

0.058278

0.127177


(0.05944)

(0.04878)

(0.07201)

(0.17386)

(0.07439)

(0.05024)


{ 2.34771}

{ 0.73487}

{ 1.84217}

{ 1.12541}

{ 0.78344}

{ 2.53140}

DQD_SA(-5)

0.060910

0.017635

-0.040778

0.012799

-0.093840

-0.030710


(0.06543)

(0.05369)

(0.07926)

(0.19136)

(0.08188)

(0.05530)


{ 0.93091}

{ 0.32844}

{-0.51448}

{ 0.06688}

{-1.14611}

{-0.55536}

DQD_SA(-6)

0.069318

-0.002325

0.096163

-0.118477

0.006759

0.044659


(0.06548)

(0.05373)

(0.07932)

(0.19150)

(0.08194)

(0.05534)


{ 1.05863}

{-0.04327}

{ 1.21237}

{-0.61867}

{ 0.08249}

{ 0.80701}

DQD_SA(-7)

0.122221

0.127193

-0.047839

0.175824

-0.098441

0.088166


(0.06515)

(0.05346)

(0.07892)

(0.19054)

(0.08152)

(0.05506)


{ 1.87603}

{ 2.37918}

{-0.60618}

{ 0.92277}

{-1.20750}

{ 1.60125}

DQD_SA(-8)

0.042036

0.050033

-0.190567

0.217176

-0.130846

0.026088


(0.06128)

(0.05029)

(0.07423)

(0.17923)

(0.07669)

(0.05179)


{ 0.68595}

{ 0.99493}

{-2.56709}

{ 1.21172}

{-1.70628}

{ 0.50371}

DCPI_SA(-1)

0.099919

0.098131

-0.029781

0.228073

0.727121

0.069543


(0.10152)

(0.08331)

(0.12298)

(0.29692)

(0.12704)

(0.08580)


{ 0.98421}

{ 1.17793}

{-0.24216}

{ 0.76813}

{ 5.72357}

{ 0.81051}

DCPI_SA(-2)

0.218198

0.188277

0.123443

0.516004

-0.112703

0.367058


(0.12153)

(0.09973)

(0.14721)

(0.35543)

(0.15207)

(0.10271)


{ 1.79546}

{ 1.88795}

{ 0.83853}

{ 1.45177}

{-0.74110}

{ 3.57376}

DCPI_SA(-3)

-0.154834

-0.122039

-0.210700

-0.412479

0.189415

-0.248923


(0.11676)

(0.09581)

(0.14144)

(0.34148)

(0.14610)

(0.09868)


{-1.32612}

{-1.27375}

{-1.48973}

{-1.20793}

{ 1.29643}

{-2.52260}

DCPI_SA(-4)

-0.075557

-0.186864

-0.072578

-0.231629

-0.061173

-0.016233


(0.11820)

(0.09699)

(0.14318)

(0.34569)

(0.14791)

(0.09990)


{-0.63924}

{-1.92656}

{-0.50690}

{-0.67004}

{-0.41359}

{-0.16250}

DCPI_SA(-5)

0.040430

0.064670

0.254126

0.297394

0.099752

-0.091399


(0.11715)

(0.09613)

(0.14191)

(0.34263)

(0.14660)

(0.09901)


{ 0.34511}

{ 0.67271}

{ 1.79074}

{ 0.86798}

{ 0.68045}

{-0.92313}

DCPI_SA(-6)

0.083053

0.120438

0.042230

-0.018099

-0.208794

0.053293


(0.10872)

(0.08922)

(0.13170)

(0.31798)

(0.13605)

(0.09189)


{ 0.76390}

{ 1.34994}

{ 0.32065}

{-0.05692}

{-1.53468}

{ 0.57998}

DCPI_SA(-7)

0.000995

-0.031575

-0.265429

0.254078

-0.008347

0.086531


(0.10472)

(0.08593)

(0.12686)

(0.30628)

(0.13104)

(0.08851)


{ 0.00951}

{-0.36743}

{-2.09238}

{ 0.82957}

{-0.06369}

{ 0.97769}

DCPI_SA(-8)

-0.002506

0.024529

0.084055

-0.073375

0.019349

-0.021957


(0.08966)

(0.07357)

(0.10861)

(0.26222)

(0.11219)

(0.07577)


{-0.02795}

{ 0.33340}

{ 0.77393}

{-0.27982}

{ 0.17246}

{-0.28977}

DTG(-1)

-0.086134

0.080320

-0.108652

-0.014753

0.189716

0.264370


(0.13661)

(0.11210)

(0.16548)

(0.39953)

(0.17094)

(0.11545)


{-0.63053}

{ 0.71652}

{-0.65659}

{-0.03693}

{ 1.10982}

{ 2.28986}


DTG(-2)

-0.026169

0.280913

0.287532

0.542889

-0.198823

0.006074


(0.14215)

(0.11665)

(0.17220)

(0.41575)

(0.17788)

(0.12014)


{-0.18409}

{ 2.40815}

{ 1.66976}

{ 1.30579}

{-1.11770}

{ 0.05055}

DTG(-3)

0.368247

0.422558

-0.062812

-0.036475

0.127601

0.274430


(0.14784)

(0.12132)

(0.17909)

(0.43239)

(0.18500)

(0.12495)


{ 2.49084}

{ 3.48308}

{-0.35073}

{-0.08436}

{ 0.68973}

{ 2.19637}

DTG(-4)

0.019404

-0.034824

0.219132

0.321041

0.218984

-0.186375


(0.15253)

(0.12517)

(0.18477)

(0.44610)

(0.19087)

(0.12891)


{ 0.12721}

{-0.27822}

{ 1.18597}

{ 0.71966}

{ 1.14730}

{-1.44577}

DTG(-5)

-0.161330

0.065659

0.070500

-0.341777

0.210593

0.055961


(0.14284)

(0.11722)

(0.17303)

(0.41777)

(0.17875)

(0.12072)


{-1.12943}

{ 0.56015}

{ 0.40744}

{-0.81810}

{ 1.17817}

{ 0.46355}

DTG(-6)

0.038925

0.002351

0.245874

0.146379

0.405333

0.073747


(0.12726)

(0.10443)

(0.15416)

(0.37220)

(0.15925)

(0.10755)


{ 0.30586}

{ 0.02251}

{ 1.59493}

{ 0.39328}

{ 2.54527}

{ 0.68567}

DTG(-7)

0.000214

0.010659

0.306832

-0.059948

0.150910

0.130586


(0.11716)

(0.09614)

(0.14192)

(0.34266)

(0.14661)

(0.09902)


{ 0.00183}

{ 0.11087}

{ 2.16195}

{-0.17495}

{ 1.02933}

{ 1.31881}

DTG(-8)

-0.072752

-0.148707

-0.122561

-0.229510

-0.012268

-0.181410


(0.10990)

(0.09018)

(0.13312)

(0.32141)

(0.13752)

(0.09288)


{-0.66201}

{-1.64899}

{-0.92065}

{-0.71407}

{-0.08921}

{-1.95319}

C

0.000272

0.000257

-4.41E-05

-0.000207

0.000271

0.000121


(0.00042)

(0.00035)

(0.00051)

(0.00123)

(0.00053)

(0.00036)


{ 0.64676}

{ 0.74392}

{-0.08648}

{-0.16834}

{ 0.51431}

{ 0.34131}

R-squared

0.740800

0.773190

0.672686

0.487969

0.826693

0.831319

Adj. R- squared


0.592685


0.643585


0.485650


0.195380


0.727660


0.734930

Sum sq. resids


0.001814


0.001221


0.002661


0.015513


0.002840


0.001295

S.E. equation

0.004647

0.003813

0.005629

0.013590

0.005815

0.003927

F-statistic

5.001539

5.965717

3.596552

1.667763

8.347683

8.624620

Log likelihood

556.2656

582.5626

530.7633

413.5319

526.4431

578.6416

Akaike AIC

-7.628054

-8.023498

-7.244561

-5.481682

-7.179596

-7.964535

Schwarz SC

-6.563188

-6.958633

-6.179695

-4.416817

-6.114731

-6.899670

Mean

dependent


3.76E-05


3.76E-05


-0.000248


-0.000408


-0.000279


-0.000205

S.D.

dependent


0.007281


0.006387


0.007848


0.015150


0.011142


0.007628

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)


1.22E-28





Determinant resid covariance

7.72E-30





Log likelihood


3325.453





Akaike information criterion

-45.58577





Schwarz criterion


-39.19657






Nguồn: Tính toán của tác giả từ Eviews 6



Bảng 10: Kết quả ước lượng mô hình VAR với biến DCV



Vector Autoregression Estimates

Date: 05/11/17 Time: 02:03

Sample (adjusted): 2005M10 2016M10

Included observations: 133 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in { }


DTCK

DTCV

DTT

DQD_SA

DCPI_SA

DCV

DTCK(-1)

-0.581102

0.035444

-0.093580

0.104651

0.409825

0.432094


(0.18336)

(0.15388)

(0.21740)

(0.52749)

(0.20744)

(0.18623)


{-3.16918}

{ 0.23033}

{-0.43045}

{ 0.19839}

{ 1.97562}

{ 2.32021}

DTCK(-2)

-0.445427

-0.188869

-0.114021

-0.051367

-0.171096

-0.068142


(0.23353)

(0.19599)

(0.27689)

(0.67182)

(0.26420)

(0.23719)


{-1.90736}

{-0.96367}

{-0.41180}

{-0.07646}

{-0.64760}

{-0.28729}

DTCK(-3)

-0.487867

-0.272356

-0.192893

-0.294638

-0.416234

-0.351302


(0.23963)

(0.20110)

(0.28411)

(0.68936)

(0.27110)

(0.24338)


{-2.03596}

{-1.35430}

{-0.67893}

{-0.42741}

{-1.53538}

{-1.44345}

DTCK(-4)

-0.013508

0.166308

0.142977

0.347199

0.172823

0.167832


(0.23388)

(0.19628)

(0.27730)

(0.67282)

(0.26459)

(0.23754)


{-0.05776}

{ 0.84730}

{ 0.51561}

{ 0.51604}

{ 0.65316}

{ 0.70655}

DTCK(-5)

0.226258

0.421635

0.729687

0.341116

0.009768

0.112833


(0.22015)

(0.18476)

(0.26102)

(0.63332)

(0.24906)

(0.22359)


{ 1.02776}

{ 2.28212}

{ 2.79555}

{ 0.53862}

{ 0.03922}

{ 0.50464}

DTCK(-6)

-0.041809

0.269869

0.168605

1.004799

-0.257160

-0.218649


(0.21976)

(0.18443)

(0.26056)

(0.63220)

(0.24862)

(0.22320)


{-0.19025}

{ 1.46325}

{ 0.64709}

{ 1.58936}

{-1.03435}

{-0.97962}

DTCK(-7)

-0.243286

0.219316

0.538958

1.093845

-0.280892

-0.370461


(0.20482)

(0.17190)

(0.24285)

(0.58923)

(0.23172)

(0.20803)


{-1.18779}

{ 1.27587}

{ 2.21932}

{ 1.85639}

{-1.21220}

{-1.78082}

DTCK(-8)

-0.168366

0.154440

0.242200

0.403910

-0.025712

-0.262026


(0.16285)

(0.13667)

(0.19308)

(0.46849)

(0.18424)

(0.16540)


{-1.03387}

{ 1.13001}

{ 1.25438}

{ 0.86216}

{-0.13956}

{-1.58420}

DTCV(-1)

1.030762

0.319960

-0.243841

0.504408

-0.398440

0.037976


(0.20002)

(0.16787)

(0.23716)

(0.57543)

(0.22629)

(0.20315)


{ 5.15323}

{ 1.90602}

{-1.02818}

{ 0.87658}

{-1.76074}

{ 0.18693}

DTCV(-2)

0.096092

-0.420213

0.366550

-0.467130

-0.503315

-0.452564


(0.26724)

(0.22428)

(0.31685)

(0.76879)

(0.30233)

(0.27142)


{ 0.35958}

{-1.87364}

{ 1.15686}

{-0.60762}

{-1.66477}

{-1.66740}

DTCV(-3)

0.227157

0.323207

0.047155

-0.656964

0.449429

0.560057


(0.29557)

(0.24806)

(0.35044)

(0.85030)

(0.33439)

(0.30020)


{ 0.76854}

{ 1.30296}

{ 0.13456}

{-0.77263}

{ 1.34404}

{ 1.86563}

DTCV(-4)

-0.026300

-0.317248

-0.299453

-0.459688

-0.420798

-0.204536


(0.29914)

(0.25105)

(0.35468)

(0.86057)

(0.33843)

(0.30382)


{-0.08792}

{-1.26367}

{-0.84430}

{-0.53417}

{-1.24339}

{-0.67321}


DTCV(-5)

-0.528432

-0.668413

-0.976002

-0.838108

-0.395680

-0.643339


(0.27512)

(0.23089)

(0.32620)

(0.79147)

(0.31125)

(0.27943)


{-1.92073}

{-2.89490}

{-2.99206}

{-1.05893}

{-1.27125}

{-2.30235}

DTCV(-6)

0.003132

-0.324747

-0.509134

-0.720075

-0.091275

-0.098257


(0.29459)

(0.24724)

(0.34929)

(0.84749)

(0.33328)

(0.29921)


{ 0.01063}

{-1.31350}

{-1.45764}

{-0.84965}

{-0.27387}

{-0.32839}

DTCV(-7)

0.109692

-0.287332

-0.231796

-1.146613

0.437918

0.426795


(0.28238)

(0.23698)

(0.33480)

(0.81234)

(0.31946)

(0.28680)


{ 0.38846}

{-1.21246}

{-0.69234}

{-1.41149}

{ 1.37080}

{ 1.48814}

DTCV(-8)

0.563787

0.164444

0.183538

-0.455953

0.060809

0.447929


(0.25997)

(0.21818)

(0.30823)

(0.74788)

(0.29411)

(0.26404)


{ 2.16868}

{ 0.75372}

{ 0.59545}

{-0.60966}

{ 0.20676}

{ 1.69646}

DTT(-1)

-0.005142

-0.222553

0.109571

-0.142200

0.007094

-0.117935


(0.09613)

(0.08068)

(0.11398)

(0.27656)

(0.10876)

(0.09764)


{-0.05349}

{-2.75849}

{ 0.96131}

{-0.51418}

{ 0.06523}

{-1.20788}

DTT(-2)

0.047640

0.133244

0.020428

-0.184429

0.100038

-0.036018


(0.09700)

(0.08141)

(0.11501)

(0.27905)

(0.10974)

(0.09852)


{ 0.49114}

{ 1.63678}

{ 0.17762}

{-0.66092}

{ 0.91160}

{-0.36560}

DTT(-3)

0.028073

0.033318

0.035086

0.224826

-0.087692

-0.193862


(0.08860)

(0.07436)

(0.10505)

(0.25488)

(0.10023)

(0.08999)


{ 0.31686}

{ 0.44809}

{ 0.33400}

{ 0.88208}

{-0.87487}

{-2.15438}

DTT(-4)

0.047237

0.051708

0.161037

-0.006038

0.166853

0.104425


(0.08537)

(0.07164)

(0.10122)

(0.24558)

(0.09658)

(0.08670)


{ 0.55334}

{ 0.72174}

{ 1.59103}

{-0.02459}

{ 1.72765}

{ 1.20439}

DTT(-5)

0.121874

0.128304

-0.010862

0.170823

0.018586

0.169048


(0.08209)

(0.06889)

(0.09733)

(0.23615)

(0.09287)

(0.08337)


{ 1.48472}

{ 1.86244}

{-0.11160}

{ 0.72338}

{ 0.20014}

{ 2.02766}

DTT(-6)

-0.114162

-0.150171

-0.329865

0.019826

0.080529

0.047586


(0.08075)

(0.06777)

(0.09574)

(0.23231)

(0.09136)

(0.08202)


{-1.41374}

{-2.21587}

{-3.44528}

{ 0.08534}

{ 0.88148}

{ 0.58020}

DTT(-7)

0.047096

-0.013670

0.137579

-0.098551

-0.062566

0.082787


(0.08050)

(0.06756)

(0.09544)

(0.23157)

(0.09107)

(0.08176)


{ 0.58507}

{-0.20235}

{ 1.44151}

{-0.42557}

{-0.68703}

{ 1.01260}

DTT(-8)

-0.116012

-0.072152

-0.031078

-0.315583

0.155227

-0.110556


(0.07833)

(0.06574)

(0.09287)

(0.22535)

(0.08862)

(0.07956)


{-1.48102}

{-1.09754}

{-0.33463}

{-1.40044}

{ 1.75161}

{-1.38962}

DQD_SA(-1)

0.048727

0.077213

0.111068

-0.497668

0.189188

0.156404


(0.04352)

(0.03653)

(0.05160)

(0.12521)

(0.04924)

(0.04420)


{ 1.11954}

{ 2.11386}

{ 2.15231}

{-3.97470}

{ 3.84219}

{ 3.53816}

DQD_SA(-2)

-0.029152

0.039718

0.106667

-0.087853

0.052444

0.115819


(0.05460)

(0.04583)

(0.06474)

(0.15709)

(0.06178)

(0.05546)


{-0.53388}

{ 0.86671}

{ 1.64759}

{-0.55927}

{ 0.84896}

{ 2.08839}

DQD_SA(-3)

0.024984

0.020646

0.027938

0.205037

0.155116

0.038888



(0.05834)

(0.04896)

(0.06917)

(0.16783)

(0.06600)

(0.05925)


{ 0.42825}

{ 0.42168}

{ 0.40390}

{ 1.22168}

{ 2.35019}

{ 0.65631}

DQD_SA(-4)

0.131949

0.090046

0.114855

0.167701

0.056899

0.119042


(0.06053)

(0.05080)

(0.07177)

(0.17414)

(0.06848)

(0.06148)


{ 2.17978}

{ 1.77249}

{ 1.60029}

{ 0.96301}

{ 0.83085}

{ 1.93624}

DQD_SA(-5)

0.032503

0.051076

-0.063070

-0.006421

-0.056179

0.032790


(0.06443)

(0.05407)

(0.07639)

(0.18536)

(0.07289)

(0.06544)


{ 0.50444}

{ 0.94454}

{-0.82558}

{-0.03464}

{-0.77069}

{ 0.50106}

DQD_SA(-6)

0.031241

-0.014898

0.131081

-0.128276

0.048534

0.075046


(0.06033)

(0.05063)

(0.07153)

(0.17356)

(0.06826)

(0.06128)


{ 0.51781}

{-0.29423}

{ 1.83245}

{-0.73907}

{ 0.71106}

{ 1.22470}

DQD_SA(-7)

0.112272

0.149872

-0.004473

0.174395

-0.044257

0.083172


(0.06042)

(0.05070)

(0.07163)

(0.17380)

(0.06835)

(0.06136)


{ 1.85833}

{ 2.95586}

{-0.06245}

{ 1.00341}

{-0.64751}

{ 1.35545}

DQD_SA(-8)

0.000296

0.013216

-0.159668

0.226950

-0.137713

-0.019443


(0.05869)

(0.04925)

(0.06958)

(0.16883)

(0.06639)

(0.05961)


{ 0.00505}

{ 0.26832}

{-2.29463}

{ 1.34423}

{-2.07415}

{-0.32620}

DCPI_SA(-1)

0.054165

0.063900

-0.023016

0.278748

0.604578

0.099082


(0.11041)

(0.09266)

(0.13090)

(0.31762)

(0.12491)

(0.11214)


{ 0.49060}

{ 0.68963}

{-0.17583}

{ 0.87761}

{ 4.84022}

{ 0.88359}

DCPI_SA(-2)

0.283546

0.226048

0.111259

0.492580

-0.056038

0.237839


(0.12926)

(0.10848)

(0.15325)

(0.37184)

(0.14623)

(0.13128)


{ 2.19369}

{ 2.08384}

{ 0.72598}

{ 1.32470}

{-0.38322}

{ 1.81172}

DCPI_SA(-3)

-0.219953

-0.208360

-0.271358

-0.540731

0.168620

-0.124720


(0.11863)

(0.09956)

(0.14065)

(0.34126)

(0.13420)

(0.12048)


{-1.85418}

{-2.09290}

{-1.92933}

{-1.58450}

{ 1.25644}

{-1.03517}

DCPI_SA(-4)

-0.067475

-0.107702

0.009055

-0.173958

-0.140412

0.008174


(0.12109)

(0.10162)

(0.14357)

(0.34834)

(0.13699)

(0.12298)


{-0.55725}

{-1.05984}

{ 0.06307}

{-0.49939}

{-1.02499}

{ 0.06646}

DCPI_SA(-5)

0.061131

0.100476

0.149653

0.284018

0.180055

0.033073


(0.11720)

(0.09836)

(0.13896)

(0.33717)

(0.13259)

(0.11904)


{ 0.52159}

{ 1.02151}

{ 1.07695}

{ 0.84237}

{ 1.35795}

{ 0.27784}

DCPI_SA(-6)

0.047320

0.060068

0.145460

0.043251

-0.217756

-0.068935


(0.10331)

(0.08670)

(0.12249)

(0.29720)

(0.11688)

(0.10493)


{ 0.45804}

{ 0.69282}

{ 1.18754}

{ 0.14553}

{-1.86312}

{-0.65698}

DCPI_SA(-7)

0.011594

-0.016343

-0.293398

0.176054

0.003169

0.022881


(0.10055)

(0.08438)

(0.11922)

(0.28926)

(0.11375)

(0.10212)


{ 0.11530}

{-0.19368}

{-2.46107}

{ 0.60864}

{ 0.02786}

{ 0.22406}

DCPI_SA(-8)

0.021082

0.041035

0.089746

-0.009671

0.004757

0.028972


(0.08850)

(0.07428)

(0.10493)

(0.25461)

(0.10013)

(0.08989)


{ 0.23821}

{ 0.55247}

{ 0.85527}

{-0.03799}

{ 0.04751}

{ 0.32231}

DCV(-1)

0.179725

0.207928

0.237448

0.474451

0.316977

-0.042358


(0.11167)

(0.09372)

(0.13240)

(0.32125)

(0.12634)

(0.11342)


{ 1.60944}

{ 2.21866}

{ 1.79340}

{ 1.47688}

{ 2.50902}

{-0.37347}

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