Trang chủ / Chứng Khoán

Tác động của các nhân tố nội tại tới dự báo khả năng sinh lời của các doanh nghiệp chế biến thực phẩm niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam - 23


NWC | .0252056 .0300696 0.84 0.407 -.0354356 .0858468


lnTA | -.0089764

.0070973

-1.26

0.213

-.0232896

.0053367

Div*** | .0003653

.0000974

3.75

0.001

.0001688

.0005618

t |






2005

|

-.0738963

.0510614

-1.45

0.155

-.1768714 .0290787

2006

|

-.0131718

.0614441

-0.21

0.831

-.1370856 .110742

2007

|

.0087896

.0593529

0.15

0.883

-.110907 .1284861

2008

|

.0037691

.058845

0.06

0.949

-.1149032

.1224414

2009

|

-.0395398

.0605691

-0.65

0.517

-.161689

.0826095

2010

|

-.0467173

.0606545

-0.77

0.445

-.1690387

.0756042

2011

|

-.0379757

.0594676

-0.64

0.526

-.1579034

.0819521

2012

|

-.0153749

.0610493

-0.25

0.802

-.1384926

.1077428

2013

|

-.0255753

.0601274

-0.43

0.673

-.1468337

.0956831

2014

|

-.0337507

.0600172

-0.56

0.577

-.1547868

.0872854

|








_cons

|

.2143048

.1121532

1.91

0.063

-.0118738

.4404833

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Tác động của các nhân tố nội tại tới dự báo khả năng sinh lời của các doanh nghiệp chế biến thực phẩm niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam - 23

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

sigma_u | .07243816

sigma_e | .06277362

rho | .57111373 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

k = 4


Fixed-effects (within) regression

Number of obs =

284

Group variable: IDCode

Number of groups =

40


R-sq:


Obs per group:


within = 0.1361

min =

1

between = 0.0451

avg =

7.1

overall = 0.0209

max =

10


F(16,39) = 82.53

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.1471 Prob > F = 0.0000


(Std. Err. adjusted for 40 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| Robust

ROA(t+4) | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

ROA* | -.1051179 .0564626 -1.86 0.070 -.2193243 .0090886

ACCR*** | -.0513276 .0175264 -2.93 0.006 -.0867782 -.015877

TAGR** | .0015483 .0006404 2.42 0.020 .0002529 .0028437


D** |

.0053651

.0023902

2.24

0.031

.0005304

.0101997

NWC |

.0453696

.0415527

1.09

0.282

-.0386785

.1294178

lnTA |

.0083606

.0096421

0.87

0.391

-.0111425

.0278636

Div*** |

.000456

.0000682

6.69

0.000

.0003181

.000594

|

t |


2005

|

.0290593

.0380677

0.76

0.450

-.04794

.1060585

2006

|

.0550478

.0360623

1.53

0.135

-.0178951

.1279906

2007

|

.058615

.0363748

1.61

0.115

-.0149599

.1321899

2008

|

-.001479

.040594

-0.04

0.971

-.0835882

.0806302

2009

|

-.0121947

.0398381

-0.31

0.761

-.0927748

.0683854

2010

|

-.0010116

.0398389

-0.03

0.980

-.0815933

.0795701

2011

|

.0252899

.0411133

0.62

0.542

-.0578695

.1084493

2012

|

-.0009318

.0401779

-0.02

0.982

-.0821994

.0803357

2013

|

-.0131017

.0401419

-0.33

0.746

-.0942964

.068093

|

_cons


|


-.0512571


.1272218


-0.40


0.689


-.3085875


.2060734

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

sigma_u | .07582695

sigma_e | .06353953

rho | .58748623 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

k = 5


Fixed-effects (within) regression

Number of obs =

244

Group variable: IDCode

Number of groups =

39


R-sq:

Obs per group:


within = 0.1158

min =

1

between = 0.0083

avg =

6.3

overall = 0.0570

max =

9


F(15,38) = 188.55

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.1191 Prob > F = 0.0000

(Std. Err. adjusted for 39 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| Robust

ROA(t+5) | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------


ROA | -.0187093 .0842236

-0.22 0.825 -.1892111 .1517925

ACCR*** | .0607824 .0161243

3.77 0.001 .0281404 .0934244

TAGR | -.0002148 .0008711

-0.25 0.807 -.0019783 .0015487

D | .0090802 .0084928

1.07 0.292

-.0081125

.0262729

NWC | .0602168 .0514237

1.17 0.249

-.043885

.1643187

lnTA** | .0210652 .0101392

2.08 0.045

.0005395

.0415908

Div*** | .0003436 .0001209

2.84 0.007

.0000989

.0005883

|

t |


2005

|

.058588

.0270719

2.16

0.037

.0037838

.1133922

2006

|

.0124902

.0247352

0.50

0.617

-.0375837

.0625641

2007

|

-.0202341

.0262036

-0.77

0.445

-.0732805

.0328122

2008

|

-.017111

.0238231

-0.72

0.477

-.0653382

.0311163

2009

|

-.0186283

.0255055

-0.73

0.470

-.0702615

.033005

2010

|

-.0014907

.0250551

-0.06

0.953

-.0522121

.0492308

2011

|

-.01798

.025859 -0.70 0.491 -.0703289 .0343688

2012

|

-.0249914

.0278721 -0.90 0.376 -.0814156 .0314327

|

_cons


|


-.2189039


.1269769 -1.72 0.093 -.4759552 .0381474

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------


sigma_u | .07878698

sigma_e | .06460016

rho | .59798154 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


k = 6


Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs =

212

Group variable: IDCode Number of groups =

38

R-sq: Obs per group:


within = 0.0221 min = 1


between = 0.4019 avg = 5.6

overall = 0.2002 max = 11


F(7,37) = 0.49


corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.4254 Prob > F = 0.8320


(Std. Err. adjusted for 38 clusters in IDCode)


| Robust


F6.ROAt Coef.

Std. Err.

t

P>|t|

[95% Conf.

Interval]

ROA 0.1290608

0.102776

1.26

0.217

-0.0791832

0.3373048

ACCR-0.0099038

0.0261785

-0.38

0.707

-0.0629464

0.0431388

TAGR-0.0001457

0.0009821

-0.15

0.883

-0.0021356

0.0018441

D -0.001909

0.0058119

-0.33

0.744

-0.013685

0.009867

NWC -0.0122209

0.0439819

-0.28

0.783

-0.1013367

0.0768949

lnTA 0.0009965

0.0076764

0.13

0.897

-0.0145574

0.0165504

DIV 0.0071857

0.0055475

1.3

0.203

-0.0040546

0.0184261

_cons 0.0492872

0.1134298

0.43

0.666

-0.1805435

0.2791179

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------


sigma_u | .07763016

sigma_e | .06232561

rho | .60806055 (fraction of variance due to u_i)


------------------------------------------------------------------------------


B2. Mô hình ROE:

ROEi,t+k = α + γ’1×ROAi,t + γ’2×ACCRi,t + γ’3×TAGRi,t + γ’4×Di,t + γ’5×NWCi,t +

γ’6×lnTAi,t + γ’7×DIVi,t + uit (5)

k = 1


Fixed-effects (within) regression

Number of obs = 416


Group variable: IDCode

Number of groups =

44

R-sq:

Obs per group:



within = 0.2457 min = 3

between = 0.0637 avg = 9.5

overall = 0.0129 max = 13

F(19,43) = 131.98

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.6899 Prob > F =

0.0000


(Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| Robust

ROE(t+1) | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]


-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ROE | .0497912 .0969973 0.51 0.610 -.1458226 .2454049

ACCR | -.002555 .0529746 -0.05 0.962 -.1093885 .1042785

TAGR*** | -.0063003 .0023186 -2.72 0.009 -.0109762 -.0016243

D | .0837468 .0903601 0.93 0.359 -.0984818 .2659754

NWC*** | -.0694638 .0199323 -3.48 0.001 -.1096611 -.0292666

lnTA*** | -.0817113 .0252285 -3.24 0.002 -.1325894 -.0308332

Div*** | -.004716 .0002881 -16.37 0.000 -.005297 -.004135

t |


2005

|

-.0519939

.0742493

-0.70 0.488 -.2017319

.0977441

2006

|

.0120016

.0704555

0.17 0.866 -.1300855

.1540887

2007

|

-.0049671

.0964841

-0.05 0.959 -.1995458

.1896116

2008

|

.0446073

.08804

0.51 0.615 -.1329423

.222157

2009

|

.055964

.0889949

0.63 0.533 -.1235114

.2354394

2010

|

.0610871

.0919447

0.66 0.510 -.1243372

.2465113

2011

|

-.0219921

.0900434

-0.24 0.808 -.2035819

.1595978

2012

|

-.0506924

.1041727

-0.49 0.629 -.2607767

.1593919

2013

|

-.0063078

.0916915

-0.07 0.945 -.1912213

.1786058

2014

|

.0617352

.0967003

0.64 0.527 -.1332796

.25675

2015

|

.0144 .1056286

0.14 0.892 -.1986203 .2274204

2016

|

.0389272 .10104

0.39 0.702 -.1648394 .2426938


_cons | 1.207491 .2949511 4.09 0.000 .6126649 1.802316


-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

sigma_u | .1786164

sigma_e | .1523974

rho | .57871435 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


k = 2


Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs =

372

Group variable: IDCode Number of groups =

R-sq: Obs per group:

44

within = 0.1459 min = 2


between = 0.2929

avg =

8.5

overall = 0.0005

max =

12


F(18,43) = 362.50

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.5277 Prob > F = 0.0000

(Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| Robust

ROE(t+2) | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

ROE** | -.1545962 .0712782 -2.17 0.036 -.2983423 -.01085

ACCR | .0529634 .0343372 1.54 0.130 -.0162841 .1222109

TAGR | .0005745 .0013959 0.41 0.683 -.0022407 .0033897

D | .1436938 .1137448 1.26 0.213 -.0856944 .373082


NWC | -.0172501

.0325764

-0.53

0.599

-.0829467

.0484465

lnTA | -.0241884

.0147089

-1.64

0.107

-.0538517

.0054748

Div*** | -.0015902

.0003189

-4.99

0.000

-.0022334

-.000947

|

t |


2005 | .0515165

.0452905

1.14 0.262

-.0398205

.1428535

2006 | -.0194603

.0640253

-0.30 0.763

-.1485796

.109659


2007

|

.0591542

.0732946

0.81

0.424

-.0886585

.2069668

2008

|

.0927993

.0763422

1.22

0.231

-.0611593

.246758

2009

|

.0836697

.0735704

1.14

0.262

-.0646991

.2320386

2010

|

-.0118815

.069817

-0.17

0.866

-.152681

.1289179

2011

|

-.0567412

.0761796

-0.74

0.460

-.2103719

.0968896

2012

|

.017483

.0725839

0.24

0.811

-.1288964

.1638624

2013

|

.0471003

.0728466

0.65

0.521

-.0998088

.1940095

2014

|

-.0076312

.0736591

-0.10

0.918

-.156179

.1409166

2015

|

.0229322

.0793291

0.29

0.774

-.1370501

.1829144

_cons

|

.394588

.1909964

2.07

0.045

.0094071

.7797689

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

sigma_u | .1396202

sigma_e | .15348817

rho | .45279223 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

k = 3

Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 328

Group variable: IDCode Number of groups = 44

R-sq: Obs per group:

within = 0.1673 min = 1

between = 0.1030 avg = 7.5

overall = 0.1383 max = 11

F(17,43) = 421.35

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.0161 Prob > F = 0.0000

(Std. Err. adjusted for 44 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| Robust

ROE(t+3) | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------


ROE |

.179452 .2377257

0.75 0.454

-.2999676

.6588716

ACCR* |

-.0842177 .0480653

-1.75 0.087

-.1811505

.0127152

TAGR |

-.0030019 .0028647

-1.05 0.301

-.0087792

.0027754

D | .0238866 .1016357 0.24 0.815 -.1810814 .2288546


NWC | .024447 .023797 1.03 0.310 -.0235441 .0724382


lnTA |

-.019522

.0159115

-1.23

0.227

-.0516106

.0125666

Div*** |

.0028727

.0002893

9.93

0.000

.0022893

.0034561

|

t |


2005

|

-.1386543

.0701794

-1.98

0.055

-.2801845

.0028759

2006

|

-.0145571

.0815474

-0.18

0.859

-.1790131

.1498988

2007

|

.0487057

.0847745

0.57

0.569

-.1222584

.2196699

2008

|

.0318106

.0825057

0.39

0.702

-.134578

.1981992

2009

|

-.0601031

.0918131

-0.65

0.516

-.2452617

.1250556

2010

|

-.0956766

.0820136

-1.17

0.250

-.2610727

.0697194

2011

|

-.0296764

.0882507

-0.34

0.738

-.2076509

.148298

2012

|

.0019766

.0921262

0.02

0.983

-.1838137

.1877668

2013

|

-.0205222

.0871788

-0.24

0.815

-.1963349

.1552905

2014

|

-.0062882

.1025192

-0.06

0.951

-.2130379

.2004614

_cons

|

.3710947

.1872266

1.98

0.054

-.0064838

.7486732

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

sigma_u | .10005081

sigma_e | .15856361

rho | .28476329 (fraction of variance due to u_i)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

k = 4

Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 284

Group variable: IDCode Number of groups = 40

R-sq: Obs per group:

within = 0.1809 min = 1

between = 0.2683 avg = 7.1

overall = 0.0315 max = 10

F(16,39) = 800.39

corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.3086 Prob > F = 0.0000

(Std. Err. adjusted for 40 clusters in IDCode)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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