MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC HO CHI MINH CITY
—————————
PHAN HONG NGOC
FACTORS IMPACT ON THE ACCESSIBILITY TO BANK CREDIT OF LISTED COMPANIES ON THE STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM
SPECIALITY: FINANCE – BANKING
CODE: 60340201
MASTER THESIS OF ECONOMY
SCIENTIFIC INSTRUCTIONS: Prof. Dr. TRAN NGOC Tho
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City. Ho Chi Minh – Year 2013
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SIGNAL TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS
LIST OF TABLES
SUMMARY………………………………………… …………………………… ……………………………. first
PREAMBLE ………………………………………… …………………………… ……………………………….. 2
1. Rationale for the study …………………………………………………………….. …………………………… …………………….. 2
2. Research objectives …………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 4
3. Objects and scope of the study ……………………………………………………………………………………….. …………………………… …. 5
4. Research Methodology …………………………………….. …………………………… ……… 5
5. Structure of the topic …………………………………………………………….. …………………………… ………… 6
CHAPTER 1 ………………………………………… …………………………… …………………………… 7
SUMMARY OF FACTORS IMPACT ON ACCESSIBILITY TO BANK CREDIT AND THE SITUATION OF LISTED BUSINESSS ON THE STOCK MARKET OF VIETNAM ………… …………………………… …………………………… 7
1.1. Factors affecting the ability to access bank credit ………………………………………………………… …….. 7
1.1.1. Bank factors ……………………………………………………………………………………. …………………………… 7
1.1.2. Enterprise factors …………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………… 8
1.1.3. Other factors …………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… …………….. 11
1.2. Some studies in the world …………………………………………………………………….. …………………………… twelfth
1.2.1. Research by Hongjiang Zhao, Wenxu Wu and Xuehua Chen (2006) “What Factors Affect Small and Medium-sized Enterprise’s Ability to Borrow from Bank: Evidence from Chengdu City, Capital of South-Western China ‘s Sichuan Province” …. ……………………………… twelfth
1.2.2. Research by Yuko Nikaido, Jesim Pais, Mandira Sarma (2012) “Determinants of Access to Institutional Credit for Small Enterprises in India”………………………. …………. 13
1.2.3. Constantine’s research. Drakos and Nicholas Giannakopoulos (2011) “On the determinants of credit rationing: Firm-level evidence from transition countries” ………………….. 14
1.3. Current status of listed companies on Vietnam’s stock market ………………………. 15
1.3.1. Overview Introduction ………………………………………. …………………………… ……….. 15
1.3.2. Business situation………………………………………. …………………………… ……… 17
1.3.3. Financial situation and capital structure …………………………………………………………….. ………………………. 20
1.3.3.1. Total assets……………………………………….. …………………………… ………… 20
1.3.3.2. Capital………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 22
1.3.3.3. Debt/Equity Ratio…………………………………………………………………. …………………………… … 24
1.3.3.4. Debt ratios in different periods ……………………………………………………………………………………….. …………. 26
CHAPTER 2 ………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 28
RESEARCH METHODS AND RESEARCH MODEL …………………………………………………… …. 28
2.1. Data source and sampling method …………………………………………………………………….. ………………………. 28
2.1.1. Data source …………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… …………28
2.1.2. Sampling method………………………………………. …………………………… ……. 28
2.2. Research Methods ………………………………………. …………………………… …….29
2.3.1 Research variables …………………………………………………………….. …………………………… …………….. 30
2.3.2 Setting up the research model ………………………………………………………… …………………………… … 32
2.4. Research hypothesis …………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 33
CHAPTER 3 ………………………………………… …………………………… …………36
RESEARCH RESULTS ………………………………………. …………………………… ………… 36
3.1. Descriptive statistics ………………………………………. …………………………… …………36
3.1.1. General statistics ……………………………………………………………………………………. …………………………… ..36
3.1.2. Descriptive statistics of observed variables …………………………………………………………………….. ………………………. 38
3.2. Correlation analysis …………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 40
3.3. Model checking …………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 42
3.4. Evaluation and evaluation of the model …………………………………………………………….. …………………………… …. 45
CHAPTER 4 ………………………………………… …………………………… ………… 48
RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE THE ACCESSIBILITY TO BANK CREDIT OF ENTERPRISES LISTED ON THE VIETNAM Stock Exchange …………………………………………………… ………………………. 48
4.1. On the side of enterprises listed on Vietnam’s stock market …………………………………………………………… … 48
4.1.1.Improve production and business efficiency, increase the credit rating of listed companies ……. 48
4.1.2. Development of feasible production and business projects and plans ………………………………………………………… ………… 49
4.2. To the credit institutions …………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ….. 50
4.2.1. Diversification of credit products …………………………………………………………….. ……………………… 50
4.2.2. Improving the quality of appraisal work …………………………………………………………………………. ……………… 51
CONCLUDE………………………………………… …………………………… …………….. 52
REFERENCES
APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX 2
GUARANTEE
I hereby declare that the thesis “FACTORS IMPACT TO ACCESS TO BANK CREDIT OF BUSINESSES LISTED ON THE STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM” is my own research work.
The information and data used in the thesis are honest, the sources cited are clearly stated and the research results presented in this thesis have not been published in any research works. any other help.
City. Ho Chi Minh, October 2013
The guarantor
Phan Hong Ngoc
SIGNAL TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS
Stock Exchange: Securities trading
Securities: Securities
CP: Stocks
SBV: State Bank
Commercial Bank: Commercial Bank
DN: Enterprise
HNX: Hanoi Stock Exchange
HOSE: Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange
Credit institutions: Credit institutions
Fixed assets: fixed assets
Special assets: collateral assets
Stock market: Stock market
HCMC: Ho Chi Minh City
SSC: State Securities Commission
VN-Index: Vietnam Index (stock market index of Vietnam)
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Revenues of listed companies …………………………………………………………………………. … 17
Table 1.2 Situation of after-tax profits of listed companies ………………………. 19
Table 1.3 Situation of total assets of listed companies …………………………………………………… 20
Table 1.4 Equity situation of listed companies …………………………………………………… …. 22
Table 1.5 Liabilities of listed companies ………………………………………………. .. 23
Table 1.6 Debt/Equity Ratio of listed companies (times) ………………………………………………………… 24
Table 1.7 Ratio of short-term, long-term debt / Equity of listed companies (%)…… 26
Table 2.1 Definition of variables in the research model ………………………………………………. ……… 30
Table 2.2 Summary of the hypotheses ……………………………………………………………………… ………………………. 35
Table 3.1 General statistics ……………………………………………………………………… …………………………… … 36
Table 3.2 Descriptive statistics ……………………………………………………………………… …………………………… ….. 38
Table 3.3 Correlation between variables ……………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………. 40
Table 3.4 Indicators to assess the fit of the model …………………………………………………………… ………… 42
Table 3.5 Indicators of model testing …………………………………………………………… ………………………… 43
Table 3.6 Regression results of variables in the model ………………………………… ………… 44
SUMMARY
The thesis uses research data on 242 listed companies (including 102 enterprises on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and 140 enterprises on the Hanoi Stock Exchange) during the period from 2010 to 2012. to determine the factors affecting the access to bank credit of listed companies. The study uses a multivariable probit regression model and through the model test results, the author determines that the access to bank credit of enterprises listed on the Vietnamese stock exchange is affected by factors such as the number of years in operation of the company; increase the revenue; fixed asset growth, company profitability, company size, owner’s gender, bank account availability, manufacturing industry, number of competitors, and domestic sales ratio. Through these factors, the author gives some suggestions to improve the access to bank credit of enterprises listed on Vietnam stock exchange.
PREAMBLE
1. Rationale for the study
Vietnam’s economy and society in 2012 continued to be affected by the instability of the global economy due to the unresolved financial crisis and public debt crisis in Europe. The economic downturn in the euro area, along with the credit crunch and rising unemployment in the eurozone countries, continue. Global production and trade were hit hard. The growth of major economies slowed down, leading to the decline of other economies. Some large countries and blocs with important positions in trade relations with our country such as the US, China, Japan and the EU face many challenges, so growth is slow. The disadvantages from the decline of the world economy adversely affect the production and business activities of enterprises and the lives of our people. Specifically, the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 at 1994 constant prices is estimated to increase only 5.03% compared to 2011. This growth is lower than the growth rate of 5.89% in 2011 but in the context Given the difficult situation of the world economy, the whole country focused on implementing the priority targets of controlling inflation and stabilizing the macro-economy, such an increase is reasonable. Out of 5.03% of the overall economic growth, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.72%, contributing 0.44 percentage points to the overall growth; the industry and construction sector increased by 4.52%, contributing 1.89 percentage points; the service sector increased by 6.42%, contributing 2.7 percentage points (GSO, 2013).
In 2013, the global economic situation was mixed with light and dark colors. However, Vietnam’s 2013 macro-economic environment continues to be basically stable. Inflation continued to be controlled at a low level (July CPI increased by 0.27% compared to June) and increased by 7.29% compared to July 2012, an average increase of 6.81% over the same period last year. ). Thanks to the achievements in macro stability achieved in recent years, foreign investors’ confidence in the Vietnamese economy continues to improve.
The State Bank said that in 2012, the banking industry faced many difficulties and challenges due to the adverse impacts of the domestic and foreign macroeconomics. The system of credit institutions entered 2012 in the context of tight liquidity, great potential risks, a part of credit institutions are at risk of insolvency, interest rates are high, Competition for capital mobilization in the market is fierce due to the large demand for liquidity, leading to a common violation of the interest rate ceiling, and bad debts tend to increase. Specifically, as of December 20, 2012, credit increased by 6.45% compared to the end of 2011, of which credit in VND increased by 8.92%, credit in foreign currency by 3.51%. Credit growth much lower than the target is due to factors outside credit demand other than interest rates; bad debts increase; liquidity of a number of joint stock commercial banks faced difficulties; some credit institutions have not strictly complied with the regulations on maximum deposit interest rate of the State Bank (Vietnamnet, 2012). In 2013, the economic situation continued to be assessed as still difficult. According to the State Bank, the loan balance of the whole system as of February 19, 2013 was negative 0.16% compared to the end of 2012. Before this negative number, many opinions expressed concern about credit growth target this year is 12%. This will be a big challenge for the bank.
According to the survey results released by the Vietnam Development Forum in collaboration with the National Economics University, although there has been an easing of monetary policy and many stimulus policies are being implemented, there are still Up to 20.8% of enterprises participating in the survey said that they had difficulty accessing bank loans. Also according to the survey results, up to 42.9% of enterprises think that accessing capital will still be a big difficulty in the coming time (Vietnam Development Forum & National Economics University, 2012).
In 2012, the production and business situation of enterprises listed on Vietnam’s stock market faced many difficulties. High inventories increased by nearly 15% compared to the balance of the same period. Capital turnover slowed down, the production and business cycle was also later than before, leading to a series of consequences, of which the biggest worry was the gradual decrease in profit to loss. 22 enterprises delisted in 2012, 14 enterprises facing the risk of having to leave the floor, 01 enterprise dissolved are the numbers that show the sad situation of listed enterprises. The low market price makes it difficult to raise capital equal/higher than par value. Many businesses have chosen to issue below par value to raise capital for their business activities. The problem of corporate debt became a hot issue in 2012 in the context of banks’ bad debt reaching the highest level in recent years (GED Entrepreneur Academy, 2013).
Overall and objectively, credit capital itself is a tool to promote production development and increase income for employees. This tool is only really effective when its operation is consistent with the characteristics and financial capacity of the business. Therefore, the system of credit solutions, credit support solutions, policy support solutions to create a favorable environment to help listed companies improve their access to credit sources is a necessary job.
Research the factors affecting the credit access of businesses, thereby finding solutions to help businesses get loans to invest in production development, expand industries, and improve efficiency. production and business is an urgent issue, so the author has chosen the topic “Factors affecting access to bank credit of enterprises listed on Vietnam stock exchange” to study. .
2. Research objective
– Systematize theoretical issues on the relationship between credit resources, credit access and listed enterprises.
– Analysis of factors affecting credit access of companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi (HNX).
– Building a research model, determining the direction of impact between the above factors on the ability to access corporate credit.
– Proposing recommendations to support enterprises to borrow capital to invest in production and business development, improve production and business efficiency of enterprises.
3. Object and scope of research
– The object of the study is the relationship between credit of credit institutions and companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi (HNX), in which the research focuses on factors affecting the ability to access credit capital of enterprises listed on HOSE and HNX (except for companies in finance & insurance industry).
– Research scope: 242 enterprises listed on Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2012.
4. Research Methodology
The thesis uses qualitative and quantitative research methods.
+ Qualitative research method: using an exploratory research method through secondary documents and surveying previous scientific studies to establish groups of variables that are believed to affect accessibility. Bank credit of companies listed on Vietnam stock market.
+ Quantitative research method: using multivariable probit regression model to estimate and test the model to determine the factors affecting the ability to access bank credit of listed companies. The software used is SPSS 18.
5. Structure of the topic
In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the content of the thesis is presented in 4 chapters:
Chapter 1: Summary of factors affecting access to bank credit and the situation of listed companies on Vietnam’s stock market
Chapter 2: Research method and research model
Chapter 3: Research results
Chapter 4: Recommendations to improve access to bank credit of listed companies on Vietnam’s stock market
CHAPTER 1
SUMMARY OF FACTORS IMPACT ON ACCESSIBILITY TO BANK CREDIT AND SITUATION OF LISTED ENTERPRISES ON THE STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM
1.1. Factors affecting access to bank credit
1.1.1. Factors from the bank
These are the factors that belong to the bank itself related to the ability to access credit capital for the bank’s customers, including:
– Operational network: If a bank has a wide range of operations with many branches, it will help customers access the bank more easily, vice versa.
– Credit policy: including factors that limit the loan amount for a customer, loan term, loan interest rate and fee level, lending method, and how to deal with excess borrowers limits, handling problem loans…all of these factors have a direct and strong effect on the Bank’s loan expansion. If all the elements of the credit policy are correct, reasonable and flexible, meeting the diverse needs of customers in terms of capital, the Bank will succeed in helping customers easily access with credit capital, but still ensure credit quality. On the contrary, these factors are unreasonable, rigid and do not follow the real situation, which will lead to difficulties in enhancing their lending activities and at the same time make it difficult for customers to access capital. Credit.