The transmission from the interest rate policy of the State bank to the deposit and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam

Critical Value Bounds
Significance	I0 Bound	I1 Bound
ten%	3.02	3.51
5%	3.62	4.16
2.5%	4.18	4.79
first%	4.94	5.58
TDH_TCK
ARDL Bounds Test

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Pass-Through From Rediscount Rate To Deposit And Lending Rates
Choosing The Optimal Lag For The Variables In The Model Table 4.8: Optimal Latency Testing‌
Limitations Of The Topic And Directions For Further Research
The transmission from the interest rate policy of the State bank to the deposit and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam - 8

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 21:57 Sample: 5 96

Included observations: 92

Null Hypothesis: No long-run relationships exist

Test Statistic	Value	k
F-statistics	26.61173	first
Critical Value Bounds
Significance	I0 Bound	I1 Bound
ten%	3.02	3.51
5%	3.62	4.16
2.5%	4.18	4.79
first%	4.94	5.58

APPENDIX 04: TESTING THE SUPPORT OF THE VARIABLES

1M_TCV

Dependent Variable: _1M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 22:36 Sample (adjusted): 5 96

Included observations: 92 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCV Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(4, 2)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.*
_1M(-1)	1.135026	0.106557	10.65184	0.0000
_1M(-2)	-0.194532	0.163671	-1.188552	0.2380
_1M(-3)	-0.123542	0.159949	-0.772386	0.4421
_1M(-4)	0.131430	0.094763	1.386938	0.1691
TCV	0.463933	0.112370	4.128618	0.0001
TCV(-1)	-0.112039	0.157915	-0.709488	0.4800
TCV(-2)	-0.346461	0.112452	-3.080976	0.0028
OLD	0.346080	0.276030	1.253778	0.2134
R-squared	0.967650	Mean dependent var		8.978804
Adjusted R-squared	0.964954	SD dependent var		3.881412
SE of regression	0.726618	Akaike info criterion		2.282111
Sum squared residence	44.34984	Schwarz criterion		2.501397
Log likelihood	-96.97709	Hannan-Quinn criter.		2.370616
F-statistics	358,9453	Durbin-Watson stats		2.139592
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model selection.

6M_TCV

Dependent Variable: _6M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 22:50 Sample (adjus ted): 2 96

Included obs ervations : 95 after adjus tments

Maximum dependent lags : 12 (Automatic s election) Model s election method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regexp s ors (12 lags , automatic): TCV Fixed regexp s ors : C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1)

Note: final equation s ample is larger than s election s ample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Stats tic	Prob.*
_6M(-1)	0.938868	0.052329 17.94159	0.0000
TCV	0.693945	0.101460 6.839625	0.0000
TCV(-1)	-0.682248	0.094074 -7.252245	0.0000
OLD	0.479848	0.265253 1.809024	0.0737
Rs quared	0.948086	Mean dependent var	9.696737
Adjus ted Rs quared	0.946374	SD dependent var	3.301801
SE of regex s ion	0.764606	Akaike info criterion	2.342282
Sum s quared res id	53.20068	Schwarz criterion	2.449813
Log likelihood	-107.2584	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.385733
Fs tatis tic	553.9623	Durbin-Wats on the clock	1.608167
Prob(Fs tatis tic)	0.000000

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_12M(-1)	0.843659	0.052469 16.07917	0.0000
TCV	0.479081	0.086092 5.564759	0.0000
TCV(-1)	0.129880	0.132634 0.979237	0.3302
TCV(-2)	-0.488779	0.136069 -3.592134	0.0005
TCV(-3)	-0.080654	0.131803 -0.611928	0.5422
TCV(-4)	0.056498	0.084450 0.669014	0.5053
OLD	0.628499	0.254718 2.467428	0.0156
R-squared	0.963452	Mean dependent var	10.02707
Adjusted R-squared	0.960873	SD dependent var	3.071818
SE of regression	0.607626	Akaike info criterion	1.914523
Sum squared residence	31.38281	Schwarz criterion	2.106398
Log likelihood	-81.06804	Hannan-Quinn criter.	1.991965
F-statistics	373.4552	Durbin-Watson stats	1.812416
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000
18M_TCV

Dependent Variable: _18M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 22:52 Sample (adjusted): 3 96

Included observations: 94 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCV Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(1, 2)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_18M(-1)	0.887159	0.052324 16.95497	0.0000
TCV	0.446020	0.089894 4.961628	0.0000
TCV(-1)	-0.149811	0.140588 -1.065602	0.2895
TCV(-2)	-0.266015	0.086657 -3.069762	0.0028
OLD	0.799598	0.288990 2.766869	0.0069
R-squared	0.933686	Mean dependent var	9.760638
Adjusted R-squared	0.930706	SD dependent var	2.467255
SE of regression	0.649474	Akaike info criterion	2.026418
Sum squared residence	37.54171	Schwarz criterion	2.161700
Log likelihood	-90.24164	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.081062
F-statistics	313.2765	Durbin-Watson stats	1.787637
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_24M(-1)	0.880940	0.053380 16.50324	0.0000
TCV	0.445094	0.088425 5.033566	0.0000
TCV(-1)	-0.150931	0.137813 -1.095189	0.2764
TCV(-2)	-0.261794	0.084981 -3.080610	0.0027
OLD	0.845346	0.290602 2.908944	0.0046
R-squared	0.933691	Mean dependent var	9,777447
Adjusted R-squared	0.930711	SD dependent var	2.417157
SE of regression	0.636266	Akaike info criterion	1.985323
Sum squared residence	36.03021	Schwarz criterion	2.120605
Log likelihood	-88.31018	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.039967
F-statistics	313.2989	Durbin-Watson stats	1.783144
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

NH_TCV

Dependent Variable: NH Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 22:56 Sample (adjusted): 7 96

Included observations: 90 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCV Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(2, 6)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.*
NH(-1)	1.081561	0.110173	9.816912	0.0000
NH(-2)	-0.204363	0.115941	-1.762646	0.0818
TCV	0.505428	0.111177	4.546151	0.0000
TCV(-1)	0.022739	0.166537	0.136541	0.8917
TCV(-2)	-0.462235	0.154122	-2.999158	0.0036
TCV(-3)	-0.024932	0.128104	-0.194620	0.8462
TCV(-4)	-0.109462	0.117272	-0.933401	0.3534
TCV(-5)	0.243417	0.116044	2.097628	0.0391
TCV(-6)	-0.087353	0.075551	-1.156211	0.2510
OLD	0.744165	0.308893	2.409136	0.0183
R-squared	0.977416	Mean dependent var		12.75750
Adjusted R-squared	0.974876	SD dependent var		3.327661
SE of regression	0.527457	Akaike info criterion		1.662942
Sum squared residence	22.25691	Schwarz criterion		1.940699
Log likelihood	-64.83240	Hannan-Quinn criter.		1.774950
F-statistics	384.7072	Durbin-Watson stats		1.962815
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

Dependent Variable: TDH Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 22:56 Sample (adjus ted): 5 96

Included obs ervations : 92 after adjus tments

Maximum dependent lags : 12 (Automatic s election) Model s election method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regexp s ors (12 lags , automatic): TCV Fixed regexp s ors : C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(2, 4)

Note: final equation s ample is larger than s election s ample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Stats tic	Prob.*
TDH(-1)	1.070561	0.098958 10.81830	0.0000
TDH(-2)	-0.203586	0.093559 -2.176016	0.0324
TCV	0.470750	0.092659 5.080434	0.0000
TCV(-1)	-0.023733	0.139504 -0.170122	0.8653
TCV(-2)	-0.334572	0.126682 -2.641048	0.0099
TCV(-3)	-0.103474	0.128607 -0.804577	0.4233
TCV(-4)	0.073649	0.079463 0.926840	0.3567
OLD	1.074574	0.347484 3.092445	0.0027
Rs quared	0.971524	Mean dependent var	13.98250
Adjus ted Rs quared	0.969151	SD dependent var	3.227820
SE of regex s ion	0.566933	Akaike info criterion	1.785791
Sum s quared res id	26,99872	Schwarz criterion	2,005077
Log likelihood	-74.14639	Hannan-Quinn criter.	1.874297
Fs tatis tic	409.4033	Durbin-Wats on the clock	2.101141
Prob(Fs tatis tic)	0.000000
1M_TCK
Dependent Variable: _1M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:05 Sample (adjusted): 5 96

Included observations: 92 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCK Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(4, 2)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.*
_1M(-1)	1.174603	0.109222	10.75432	0.0000
_1M(-2)	-0.167957	0.172518	-0.973562	0.3331
_1M(-3)	-0.207766	0.174682	-1.189395	0.2376
_1M(-4)	0.143529	0.103408	1.387984	0.1688
TCK	0.406666	0.109785	3.704202	0.0004
TCK(-1)	-0.128015	0.146480	-0.873942	0.3846
TCK(-2)	-0.262694	.102521	-2.562351	0.0122
OLD	0.344017	0.224754	1.530638	0.1296
R-squared	0.965111	Mean dependent var		8.978804
Adjusted R-squared	0.962204	SD dependent var		3.881412
SE of regression	0.754596	Akaike info criterion		2.357674
Sum squared residence	47.83091	Schwarz criterion		2.576959
Log likelihood	-100.4530	Hannan-Quinn criter.		2.446179
F-statistics	331.9485	Durbin-Watson stats		2.103649
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

Dependent Variable: _6M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:06 Sample (adjusted): 2 96

Included observations: 95 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCK Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_6M(-1)	0.946585	0.055769 16.97340	0.0000
TCK	0.551751	0.10243 5.504122	0.0000
TCK(-1)	-0.545272	0.092815 -5.874851	0.0000
OLD	0.458118	0.265322 1.726652	0.0876
R-squared	0.940474	Mean dependent var	9.696737
Adjusted R-squared	0.938511	SD dependent var	3.301801
SE of regression	0.818744	Akaike info criterion	2.479103
Sum squared residence	61.00115	Schwarz criterion	2.586635
Log likelihood	-113.7574	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.522554
F-statistics	479.2459	Durbin-Watson stats	1.701805
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000
12M_TCK

Dependent Variable: _12M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:06 Sample (adjusted): 2 96

Included observations: 95 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCK Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_12M(-1)	0.895576	0.058916 15.20077	0.0000
TCK	0.657086	0.090742 7.241257	0.0000
TCK(-1)	-0.591748	0.089132 -6.638978	0.0000
OLD	0.570306	0.289565 1.969528	0.0519
R-squared	0.938734	Mean dependent var	10.06916
Adjusted R-squared	0.936714	SD dependent var	3.041630
SE of regression	0.765171	Akaike info criterion	2.343759
Sum squared residence	53.27933	Schwarz criterion	2.451291
Log likelihood	-107.3286	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.387210
F-statistics	464.7771	Durbin-Watson stats	1.864117
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_18M(-1)	0.900228	0.057006 15.79189	0.0000
TCK	0.477074	0.087115 5.476363	0.0000
TCK(-1)	-0.444311	0.082469 -5.387585	0.0000
OLD	0.730107	0.335630 2.175331	0.0322
R-squared	0.913982	Mean dependent var	9.762737
Adjusted R-squared	0.911146	SD dependent var	2.454181
SE of regression	0.731552	Akaike info criterion	2.253897
Sum squared residence	48.70034	Schwarz criterion	2.361428
Log likelihood	-103.0601	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.297347
F-statistics	322.3048	Durbin-Watson stats	1.626205
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000
24M_TCK

Dependent Variable: _24M Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:08 Sample (adjusted): 2 96

Included observations: 95 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 12 (Automatic selection) Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regressors (12 lags, automatic): TCK Fixed regressors: C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1)

Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
_24M(-1)	0.895451	0.058120 15.40696	0.0000
TCK	0.474035	0.0861010 5.511427	0.0000
TCK(-1)	-0.440279	0.080956 -5.438469	0.0000
OLD	0.774233	0.341194 2.269188	0.0256
R-squared	0.913563	Mean dependent var	9.779368
Adjusted R-squared	0.910713	SD dependent var	2.404338
SE of regression	0.718438	Akaike info criterion	2.217718
Sum squared residence	46,96991	Schwarz criterion	2.325249
Log likelihood	-101.3416	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.261169
F-statistics	320.5958	Durbin-Watson stats	1.620523
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error t-Statistics	Prob.*
NH(-1)	0.716277	0.091125 7.860416	0.0000
NH(-2)	-0.016746	0.116244 -0.144063	0.8858
NH(-3)	0.074972	0.085935 0.872425	0.3854
TCK	0.597473	0.096127 6.215467	0.0000
TCK(-1)	0.012761	0.142530 0.089529	0.9289
TCK(-2)	-0.281405	0.133886 -2.101832	0.0385
TCK(-3)	-0.151397	0.105080 -1.440772	0.1533
OLD	1.561821	0.415941 3.754907	0.0003
R-squared	0.966183	Mean dependent var	12.92661
Adjusted R-squared	0.963398	SD dependent var	3.431501
SE of regression	0.656506	Akaike info criterion	2.078324
Sum squared residence	36.63496	Schwarz criterion	2.296182
Log likelihood	-88.64205	Hannan-Quinn criter.	2.166288
F-statistics	346.9288	Durbin-Watson stats	1.360357
Prob(F-statistics)	0.000000
TDH_TCK
Dependent Variable: TDH Method: ARDL

Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:09 Sample (adjus ted): 4 96

Included obs ervations : 93 after adjus tments

Maximum dependent lags : 12 (Automatic s election) Model s election method: Akaike info criterion (AIC) Dynamic regexp s ors (12 lags , automatic): TCK Fixed regexs s ors : C

Number of models evalulated: 156 Selected Model: ARDL(2, 3)

Note: final equation s ample is larger than s election s ample

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Stats tic	Prob.*
TDH(-1)	0.840246	0.093914	8.946975	0.0000
TDH(-2)	-0.076817	0.10782	-0.762211	0.4480
TCK	0.450366	0.091735	4.909440	0.0000
TCK(-1)	0.146472	0.129788	1.128546	0.2622
TCK(-2)	-0.356550	0.112263	-2.940314	0.0042
TCK(-3)	-0.061953	0.094176	-0.657848	0.5124
OLD	1.969972	0.405385	4.859511	0.0000
Rs quared	0.962317	Mean dependent var		14.0180
Adjus ted Rs quared	0.959688	SD dependent var		3.223496
SE of regex s ion	0.647208	Akaike info criterion		2.039988
Sum s quared res id	36.02356	Schwarz criterion		2.230614
Log likelihood	-87.85946	Hannan-Quinn criter.		2.116958
Fs tatis tic	366.0336	Durbin-Wats on the clock		1.430708
Prob(Fs tatis tic)	0.000000

APPENDIX 05: CONTRACT RESULTS IN THE LONG TERM

1M_TCV

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.105263	1.123808	0.093666	0.9256
OLD	6.704726	9.269560	0.723306	0.4715

6M_TCV
	Long Run Coefficients
Variable	Coefficient Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.191340 0.840287	0.227708	0.8204
OLD	7.849345 7.706811	1.018495	0.3111

12M_TCV

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.614213	0.180551	3.401876	0.0010
OLD	4.020045	1.642994	2.446780	0.0165

18M_TCV
	Long Run Coefficients
Variable	Coefficient Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.267576 0.295669	0.904985	0.3679
OLD	7.086072 2.692332	2.631945	0.0100

24M_TCV

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.271872	0.275805	0.985739	0.3269
OLD	7.100192	2.519405	2.818201	0.0060

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.713358	0.258661	2.757887	0.0072
OLD	6.059873	2.275768	2.662782	0.0094

TDH_TCV

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCV	0.621086	0.237403	2.616165	0.0105
OLD	8.077987	2.140735	3.773464	0.0003

1M_TCK

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.277080	0.879778	0.314943	0.7536
OLD	5.973510	5.723610	1.043661	0.2996

6M_TCK

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.121308	1.068562	0.113524	0.9099
OLD	8.576550	7.594246	1.129348	0.2617
12M_TCK
Long Run Coefficients
Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.625698	0.313193	1.997803	0.0487
OLD	5.461429	2.330477	2.343481	0.0213

18M_TCK

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.328380	0.337852	0.971966	0.3336
OLD	7.317760	2.503647	2.922840	0.0044

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.322879	0.320571	1.007198	0.3165
OLD	7.405437	2.383291	3.107232	0.0025

NH_TCK

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.786850	0.164644	4.779095	0.0000
OLD	6.926134	1.113247	6.221562	0.0000

TDH_TCK

Long Run Coefficients

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
TCK	0.753829	0.125242	6.018962	0.0000
OLD	8.327194	0.901090	9.241242	0.0000

APPENDIX 06: SHORT-TERM TRANSFER

1M_TCV

AR DL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _1M

Selected Model: ARDL(4, 2) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:19 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 92

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(_1M(-1))	0.186643	0.110542	1.838083	0.0696
D(_1M(-2))	-0.007888	0.099641	-0.079167	0.9371
D(_1M(-3))	-0.131430	0.092410	-1.422254	0.1587
D(TCV)	0.463933	0.106413	4.359720	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.346461	0.107130	3.234012	0.0017
CointEq(-1)	-0.051617	0.021033	-2.454080	0.0162

Cointeq = _1M - (0.1053*TCV + 6.7047 )

6M_TCV

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _6M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:21 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 95

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCV)	0.693945	0.091686	7.568687	0.0000
CointEq(-1)	-0.061132	0.027810	-2.198209	0.0305

Cointeq = _6M - (0.1913*TCV + 7.8493 )

12M_TCV

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _12M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 4) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:23 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 92

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCV)	0.479081	0.078792	6.080289	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.512934	0.082007	6.254770	0.0000
D(TCV(-2))	0.024155	0.085287	0.283225	0.7777
D(TCV(-3))	-0.056498	0.082418	-0.685511	0.4949
CointEq(-1)	-0.156341	0.042577	-3.671947	0.0004

Cointeq = _12M - (0.6142*TCV + 4.0200 )

Dependent Variable: _18M Selected Model: ARDL(1, 2) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:24 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 94

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCV)	0.446020	0.083198	5.360931	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.266015	0.085302	3.118509	0.0024
CointEq(-1)	-0.112841	0.037007	-3.049195	0.0030

Cointeq = _18M - (0.2676*TCV + 7.0861 )

24M_TCV

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _24M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 2) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:25 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 94

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCV)	0.445094	0.081564	5.457009	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.261794	0.083715	3.127193	0.0024
CointEq(-1)	-0.119060	0.037671	-3.160497	0.0022

Cointeq = _24M - (0.2719*TCV + 7.1002 )

NH_TCV

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: SMALL

Selected Model: ARDL(2, 6) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:26 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 90

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(NH(-1))	0.204363	0.105472	1.937609	0.0562
D(TCV)	0.505428	0.099553	5.076997	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.440565	0.113251	3.890176	0.0002
D(TCV(-2))	-0.021670	0.090998	-0.238139	0.8124
D(TCV(-3))	-0.046602	0.075960	-0.613503	0.5413
D(TCV(-4))	-0.156064	0.075790	-2.059149	0.0427
D(TCV(-5))	0.087353	0.074006	1.180357	0.2414
CointEq(-1)	-0.122802	0.044981	-2.730092	0.0078

Cointeq = NH - (0.7134*TCV + 6.0599 )

Dependent Variable: TDH Selected Model: ARDL(2, 4) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:27 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 92

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TDH(-1))	0.203586	0.085047	2.393798	0.0189
D(TCV)	0.470750	0.076772	6.131797	0.0000
D(TCV(-1))	0.364397	0.085180	4.277989	0.0000
D(TCV(-2))	0.029825	0.088759	0.336018	0.7377
D(TCV(-3))	-0.073649	0.078150	-0.942414	0.3487
CointEq(-1)	-0.133025	0.039995	-3.326036	0.0013

Cointeq = TDH - (0.6211*TCV + 8.0780)

1M_TCK

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _1M

Selected Model: ARDL(4, 2) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:30 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 92

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(_1M(-1))	0.232194	0.104042	2.231741	0.0283
D(_1M(-2))	0.064237	0.104234	0.616280	0.5394
D(_1M(-3))	-0.143529	0.101472	-1.414466	0.1609
D(TCK)	0.406666	0.104252	3.900801	0.0002
D(TCK(-1))	0.262694	0.097377	2.697700	0.0084
CointEq(-1)	-0.057590	0.025415	-2.266016	0.0260

Cointeq = _1M - (0.2771*TCK + 5.9735 )

6M_TCK

AR DL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _6M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:30 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 95

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCK)	0.551751	0.089808	6.143710	0.0000
CointEq(-1)	-0.053415	0.028000	-1.907680	0.0596

Cointeq = _6M - (0.1213*TCK + 8.5765)

Dependent Variable: _12M Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:31 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 95

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCK)	0.657086	0.085348	7.698878	0.0000
CointEq(-1)	-0.104424	0.048273	-2.163215	0.0331

Cointeq = _12M - (0.6257*TCK + 5.4614 )

18M_TCK

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _18M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:32 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 95

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCK)	0.477074	0.081234	5.872849	0.0000
CointEq(-1)	-0.099772	0.043402	-2.298787	0.0238

Cointeq = _18M - (0.3284*TCK + 7.3178 )

24M_TCK

ARDL Cointegrating And Long Run Form Dependent Variable: _24M

Selected Model: ARDL(1, 1) Date: 03/29/16 Time: 23:33 Sample: 1 96

Included observations: 95

Cointegrating Form

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistics	Prob.
D(TCK)	0.474035	0.079883	5.934097	0.0000
CointEq(-1)	-0.104549	0.043748	-2.389824	0.0189

Cointeq = _24M - (0.3229*TCK + 7.4054 )