Introduction To The Bank For Agriculture And Rural Development Of Vietnam

The transmission from the interest rate policy of the State bank to the deposit and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam - 3

   

lending interest rate ) in Vietnam

 

6

Ming-Hua Liu, Dimitri Margaritis, Alireza Tourani- Rad (2007)

Study on the pass-through and adjustment speed of deposit rates and lending rates from changes in the prime interest rate in Newzeland

The transmission level is not complete. Asymmetric adjustment to the equilibrium position of retail interest rates

7

Dinh Thi Thu Hong and Phan

Dinh Manh (2013)

Pass-through from policy interest rates to market rates

to retail interest rates in Vietnam

8

Jamilov et al (2014)

A study of the pass-through and adjustment speed from policy interest rates to market interest rates in the Caucasus region

The transmission level is not complete. Asymmetric adjustment to the equilibrium position of retail interest rates.

There is no clear evidence that interest rate pass-through improves after structural break

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The transmission from the interest rate policy of the State bank to the deposit and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam - 3

(Source: Compiled by the author)

2.5 New contributions of the topic

Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994) argue that the economic structure and the development of the financial system will determine the difference in the transmission mechanism. Trinidad and Tobago (2007) argue that the credit channel is more important than other channels in countries with less developed financial markets. In countries with developed and highly competitive financial markets such as the UK and the US, the interest rate channel is the main transmission channel (Enger et al., 1999). According to Romer and Rommer (1990), there are two important conditions for monetary policy to pass through the channel

That interest rate is (i) commercial banks are not able to hedge against changes in their reserve capital when monetary policy changes. (ii) No other asset class can replace money in its function as a means of payment in the economy. Vietnam is currently a developing country with an undeveloped stock market, low level of capital contribution to the economy, and the commercial banking system plays a large role in the task of transferring capital to the economy. There are many studies by the authors on the pass-through from the policy interest rate to the retail interest rate of the commercial banking system or a group of commercial banks, but in this study, we want to analyze the pass-through from the interest rate policy. interest rate of the State Bank to deposit interest rate and lending interest rate at a particular bank, Agribankto empirically evaluate whether the interest rate pass-through mechanism is correct with the theory or not by the ARDL model.

Conclusion of chapter 2

Chapter 2 presents an overview of deposit rates, lending rates at commercial banks and interest rate pass-through in order to clarify the concepts related to the transmission from the central bank's interest rate policy to deposit rates and interest rates. loans at commercial banks, and at the same time review previous studies on interest rate pass-through as a basis for verifying the experimental results in Chapter 4.

CHAPTER 3: CURRENT SITUATION OF TRANSFER FROM THE INTEREST POLICY OF THE STATE BANK TO DEVELOPMENT RATES AND LOANS AT BANK FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM.

Chapter 3 Introduction

Chapter 3 presents the history of establishment and development, main business activities and business results of Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam period 2008-2015. Analyze the current situation of deposit interest rates, lending rates and the transmission from interest rate policy to deposit rates and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam to discuss with the research results. quantitative research in chapter 4.

3.1 Introduction to the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam

3.1.1 History of formation and development

On March 26, 1988, Vietnam Agricultural Development Bank was established under Decree No. 53/HDBT and operated under the Law on Credit Institutions of Vietnam.

On November 14, 1990, the Chairman of the Council of Ministers (now the Prime Minister) signed Decision No. 400/CT establishing the Vietnam Agricultural Bank to replace the Vietnam Agricultural Development Bank.

On November 15, 1996, the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam signed the decision No. 280/QD-NHNN to change the name of the Agricultural Bank of Vietnam to the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, abbreviated as Agribank. .

Currently, the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam is a leading commercial bank that plays a key and key role in Vietnam's economic development, especially investment in agriculture, farmers and rural development. village. Agribank is the largest bank in Vietnam in terms of capital, assets, staff, network of operations and number of customers. As of December 31, 2015, Agribank's leading position is still confirmed in many aspects with total assets: over

VND 833,000 billion, total capital: over VND 804,000 billion, total debt balance: VND 614,561 billion

VND, operating network: nearly 2,300 branches and transaction offices nationwide, nearly 40,000 employees.

Agribank always focuses on investing in innovation and applying banking technology to effectively serve business administration and develop a network of advanced banking services. Agribank is one of the banks with the largest correspondent banking relationship in Vietnam with over 1,000 correspondent banks in nearly 100 countries and territories. Agribank is the leading bank in Vietnam to receive and implement foreign projects with a total capital of over 5.8 billion USD, such as Rural Finance Project III (WB), Biogas project (ADB). , smallholder rubber development project (AFD)...Besides business mission, Agribank also demonstrates the social responsibility of a large enterprise with the cause of social security of the country. As a commercial bank - the largest financial institution in Vietnam, Agribank has achieved many encouraging achievements,

3.1.2 Main business activities

- Raising capital:

+ Exploiting and receiving deposits of other organizations, individuals and credit institutions at home and abroad in the form of demand deposits, term deposits and other types of deposits in Vietnam dong and currency.

+ Issuing certificates of deposit, bonds, promissory notes and other valuable papers to mobilize capital from domestic and foreign organizations and individuals.

+ Access to funding sources, trust capital of the Government, local authorities and economic organizations and individuals at home and abroad.

- Loans: Short-term, medium-term and long-term loans and other types of loans.

- Foreign exchange business: Mobilizing capital and lending, buying and selling foreign currency, international payment, guarantee, re-guarantee, rediscount of documents and other foreign exchange services according to management policy foreign exchange of the Government and the State Bank.

- Providing payment and treasury services:

Provide means of payment.

+ Perform domestic payment services for customers.

+ Carry out collection and payment services.

+ Perform cash collection and distribution services for customers.

- Card service, remittance service and other value-added services.

- Capital trading.

- International projects, international cooperation.

3.1.3 Business results

3.1.3.1 Capital raising activities

Table 3.1: Funding results at Agribank in the period 2008-2015

Unit: billion

Five

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

two thousand and thirteen

2014

2015

Value

375,033

443,331

474,941

506.316

557.028

634.505

690.191

804.529

+/-

22.6%

15.8%

9.4%

6.6%

ten%

13.9%

10.2%

16.5%

(Source: Agribank's business results report 2008-2015) Agribank's mobilized capital in the period 2008-2015 has continuously grown, contributing to meeting the lending demand for economic development, especially in the credit sector. agricultural and rural use. In 2010, mobilized capital reached VND 474,941 billion, accounting for 9.4% of total mobilized capital. In 2011, the capital source increased by 31,375 billion VND, up 6.6% compared to 2010. Capital increased sharply in 2013, compared with 2012 by about 77,477 billion VND, the growth rate was 13.9%. By the end of 2014, mobilized capital reached VND 690,191 billion, of which capital from organizations and individuals accounted for about 78.4% of total mobilized capital, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2013. In 2015, capital increased sharply by 16.5% compared to 2014, reaching VND 804,529 billion. Agribank has always diversified its products and forms of mobilization,

3.1.3.2 Credit activities

Table 3.2: Credit performance at Agribank in the period 2008-2015

Unit: billion

Five

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

two thousand and thirteen

2014

2015

Value

294.697

354.112

414,755

443.877

480,453

548,774

605.324

673.435

+/-

22.75%

20.16%

17.13%

7%

8.20%

12.16%

8.80%

16%

(Source: Agribank's business results report 2008-2015) In the period 2008-2010, the growth rate of outstanding loans to customers of Agribank tended to decrease sharply, from 18.45% in 2009 to 7. 02% in 2010, to 10.44% in 2013 and 11.02% in 2014. As of December 31, 2015, Agribank's total outstanding loans were VND 673,435 billion, of which the proportion of loans to agriculture, rural areas and farmers accounted for 74.8%. In particular, outstanding loans to production households and individuals continued to grow when lending was implemented under Decree 55/2015/ND-CP of the Government; Focusing on lending to credit programs and packages in priority fields, applying preferential interest rates to encourage the expansion of credit growth into the fields of agriculture, rural areas and export; continue to promote lending under Decree 67/2014/ND-CP, lending for coffee replanting,

3.1.3.3 Service activities

Table 3.3: Service performance at Agribank in the period 2008-2015

Unit: billion

Five

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

two thousand and thirteen

2014

2015

Value

1.026

1.083

1.639

2,092

2.141

2.405

2.877

3.297

+/-

53.1%

5.24%

5.13%

29%

2.4%

10.9%

19.6%

14.6%

(Source: Agribank's business results report 2008-2015) Service business results have grown steadily over the years. In 2013, Agribank's total service revenue was VND 2,405 billion, an increase of 10.96% compared to 2012. In 2014, Agribank's total service revenue reached VND 2,877 billion, an increase of 19.6% compared to 2013. The group of domestic payment services increased by 10%, the group of international payment services increased by 11.2%, the group of card services increased by 47%, the group of other services increased by 47%.

8.2%. Service revenue in 2015 reached VND 3,297 billion, up 14.6% compared to 2014. Agribank became one of the leading commercial banks in providing state budget collection services, cards, mobile banking.. .

3.1.3.4 Profit

Table 3.4: Profit after tax at Agribank for the period 2008-2015

Unit: billion

Five

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

two thousand and thirteen

2014

2015

Value

2.128

1.829

1,300

4.851

956

1.651

2.454

2,960

(Source: Agribank's business results report 2008-2015) From 2010 to 2015, Agribank's average annual profit increased by 2.36%. In the period of 2009-2014, Agribank's profit after tax had quite large fluctuations. If in 2010, profit after tax reached VND 1,300 billion, in 2014, profit after tax reached VND 2,454 billion. Within 5 years from 2009-2014, in 2012 the profit of the whole industry in general and Agribank in particular decreased sharply because this was a period of relatively low credit growth, a decrease in lending interest rates and the implementation of the State Bank of Vietnam's monetary tightening policy. currency to control inflation.

3.2 Interest rate policy of the State Bank of Vietnam

LSCB is a tool to implement monetary policy of the State Bank in the short term. LSCB is determined based on interbank interest rate, open market interest rate, deposit interest rate of credit institutions and market supply and demand fluctuations as the basis for fixing business interest rates. According to the Civil Law, credit institutions are not allowed to lend at an interest rate 1.5 times higher than the LSCB. LSCB was first announced on August 2, 2010 under Decision No. 242/2000/QD-NHNN and applied on August 5, 2000. First announced, LSCB is at 9%/year. Credit institutions set lending interest rates for customers at the time of signing credit contracts according to fixed lending rates or adjustable lending rates but not exceeding the LSCB plus the following margins: for short-term loans: 0.3%/month, for medium- and long-term loans: 0.5%/month. By the end of May 2002, The SBV changed the lending mechanism in the direction of not applying LSCB plus margin, but allowing commercial banks to apply agreed interest rates with customers. LSCB

continues to be maintained but only for reference and orientation towards market interest rates. As of June 2008, LSCB is 14%/year (Decision 1317/QD-NHNN dated 10/6/2008). The SBV operates according to the LSCB, and at the same time establishes an interbank market interest rate corridor with a difference of about 2% to regulate market interest rates. The ceiling interest rate is almost the refinancing rate, the floor interest rate is considered the rediscount rate (5%-7%/year). LSCB and open market interest rates fluctuate within this corridor.

Figure 3.1: Movements of basic interest rate, refinancing interest rate, and rediscount interest rate of the State Bank of Vietnam in the period 2008-2015.

16

14

twelfth

ten

8

6

4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LSCB LSTCK LSTCV

(Source: State Bank of Vietnam period 2008-2015) 2008: The State Bank has increased and reduced interest rates 3 times and reduced interest rates as well as refinancing and rediscount rates. On February 1, 2008, LSCB was increased from 8.25% to 8.75%. On May 19, the State Bank regulated the LSCB as the basis for determining the lending interest rates of commercial banks (the ceiling interest rate should not exceed 150% of the LSCB), the same day the LSCB was adjusted to 12%. LSCB was adjusted to the highest on June 11 (14%). On October 21, 2008, LSCB decreased to 13%. At the end of 2008, LSCB was 8.5%.

It can be said that 2009 is a challenging year for monetary policy management of the State Bank in the context of the impact of the financial crisis and global recession, and the decline of the domestic economy. In terms of frequency of adjustment, in 2009 the monetary policy had

more stable. Specifically, at the beginning of February 2009, LSCB decreased from 8.5%/year to 7%/year. On November 25, 2009, the State Bank announced to increase the interest rate by 1%. Accordingly, from December 1, 2009, the interest rate will be 8%/year instead of 7% as before. Refinancing and rediscount interest rates were adjusted to increase to 6% and 8%/year, respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the overnight interbank interest rate was often higher than the LSCB. The reason is that commercial banks are having difficulty in mobilizing capital, especially for long terms because interest rates are kept at a low level while this is the period when the capital needs of the big economy, businesses and individuals who have a large and sudden payment need to make personal purchases on Tet holiday and pay salaries and bonuses...

In 2010, the interest rate movement according to the 2009 scenario is that the operating interest rate is stable for a long time, increasing at the end of the year to curb inflation, while the market interest rate tends to decrease in the middle of the year and increased again in the last months of the year. On November 5, 2010, the State Bank officially raised the interest rate to 9%, the refinancing and rediscount interest rates were also adjusted to increase by 7% and 9%/year, respectively. However, monetary policy in 2010 can hardly be said to have been tightened when the State Bank increased the total means of payment by 25.3%, and the credit growth of the whole banking system was 29.81% compared to 2009. The inconsistent and unstable administration in the policy has reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy. As a result, one of the risks identified in 2010 was a policy risk and also prevented Vietnam from achieving its goals of macro stability and currency value.

In 2011, in the face of increasing inflationary pressure, following Resolution 11/NQ-CP on inflation control and macroeconomic stability, the tightening monetary policy was consistently implemented by the State Bank throughout 2011. Regarding interest rates Although the LSCB remained at 9%, the adjusted rediscount rate increased from 7% to 12% in the first quarter of 2011 and 13% for the third quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2011 while the refinancing interest rate remained unchanged. capital is adjusted up from 9% to 15% to increase the cost of capital of banks when borrowing from the SBV, thereby limiting the commercial banks' dependence on the SBV and making commercial banks more careful in loan approval. .

On April 10, 2012, the SBV issued Circular No. 08/2012/TT-NHNN stipulating that the maximum interest rate applicable to demand deposits with a term of less than 1 month is 4%/year. Specifically, the interest rate for terms of less than 1 month has been reduced to 2%/year, for 1-12 month term is 8%/year while the ceiling interest rate for terms over 1 year has been lifted. The downward trend in inflation in 2012 was the main basis for the reduction of the ceiling deposit interest rate. However, this interest rate reduction is mainly for short terms while long term interest rates are still at a high level of 10%-12%/year. This shows, on the one hand, that the high interest rates at long terms still have potential cost risks, and on the other hand, it shows that banks want to maintain a certain attractiveness to prevent liquidity problems at the end of the year.

In 2013, the State Bank of Vietnam reduced the ceiling deposit interest rate for terms of less than 6 months to 7%/year and lifted the ceiling interest rate for terms of 6 months or more. In addition, the operating interest rate is also adjusted downward for the refinancing rate of 7% and the rediscount rate of 5%, respectively. Accordingly, the interest rate level remained stable and tended to decrease compared to 2012.

In 2014: interest rates maintained a downward trend with a decrease of about 1.5%-2% per year compared to the end of 2013. At the end of the first quarter of 2014, the State Bank made a decision to reduce key interest rates. Then, at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, the State Bank continued to reduce the ceiling deposit interest rate for less than 6 months from 6% to 5.5%/year, and at the same time, kept stable operating interest rates such as the revolving interest rate. financing 6.5%/year, discount rate 4.5%/year.

In 2015: The interest rate policy became more cautious when the State Bank implemented an active and flexible monetary policy management, closely coordinated with fiscal policy to control inflation below 5%, and support economic growth at level 6. ,2%. Specifically, the State Bank of Vietnam reduced interest rates for medium and long-term loans from 1-1.5%/year.

3.3 Actual situation of deposit interest rate and lending interest rate at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam

3.3.1 Actual situation of deposit interest rates

Figure 3.2: Movement of deposit interest rates at Agribank in relation to base interest rates for the period 2008-2015

18

16

14

twelfth

ten

8

6

4

2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

12M 18M 1M

24M 6M LSCB

(Source: Agribank, State Bank of Vietnam for the period 2008-2015) In 2008, Agribank's deposit interest rate fluctuated the most, exploded in May and highest in June. Market interest rates interbank set a record up to 43%/year.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, Agribank's deposit interest rates continued to be pushed higher before and after LSCB was adjusted up, especially for short terms. The reason for the increase in deposit interest rates for a long time is to ensure the interests of customers, as well as in line with the general trend of the market when other investment channels such as securities, gold, and foreign currencies increase. is high and is attracting a lot of idle money from the population while the demand for loans from businesses is increasing sharply at the end of the year. By the end of December 10, 2009, Agribank's deposit interest rates for terms from 3 to 12 months fluctuated around 10%-10.49%, while this figure at the end of the third quarter was from 8-9. ,4 years. Although the LSCB was adjusted to increase, the policy of the State Bank was to stabilize the interest rate level without disturbing the market, thereby directing Agribank not to raise the deposit interest rate to 10, 5 years. Although the interest rate

savings has been continuously adjusted up, but the interest rate of 10.5% is still very low compared to 2008, and compared to other investment channels. Accordingly, in the coming time, Agribank will face difficulties in raising capital. Meanwhile, the borrowing needs of economic entities will increase along with the recovery of the economy. Therefore, the imbalance in capital mobilization and lending will continue. This is the reason why the short-term interest rate race continues to take place in a tense manner.

In 2010, with an effort to reduce deposit interest rates, creating a basis for reducing lending rates, but there was no consensus among banks to implement together. Although banks list deposit interest rates at 12%/year, banks have tacit agreements with customers about a higher interest rate to attract capital. To make it easier for banks to mobilize capital, the SBV encourages competitive interest rates. However, the concept of competitive interest rates has been fully utilized by big banks. Only after the signal from the State Bank of Vietnam, the interest rate market suddenly increased and set a record of nearly 18%/year (previously, the consensus was 12%). Immediately after these undesirable effects, the State Bank asked banks to adjust interest rates according to agreements between banks. Competitive interest rates do not mean floating and heating up, but rather to create benefits for the market, for customers, and to help banks reduce costs and improve product and service quality. On December 11, 2010, Agribank committed to apply the maximum deposit interest rate of 14%/year, the total interest rate converted to bonus programs is up to 15%/year.

In 2011, Agribank's VND deposit rate did not change much compared to the end of 2010, still keeping the maximum deposit interest rate of 14%/year for short term.

In 2012, following the decreasing trend of deposit interest rates, Agribank's deposit rate ceiling for short terms was at a reasonable level. In the last 6 months of the year, the interest rate remained at 9%/year for 1-month and 6-month terms, long term fluctuated around 9.5%-10.5%/year.

In 2013, the deposit interest rate of Agribank with short term of 6 months remained at the ceiling of 7%, term of over 6 months was popular from 7.5%-8.5%/year.

At the end of 2014, Agribank's deposit interest rates for short terms under 6 months fluctuated between 4%-5.45%/year, with terms of 6 months or more, interest rates were in the range of 5 3%-7.5%/year. Notably, at the end of December, Agribank decided to lower interest rates for long terms of 12 months or more, which is one of the bases for calculating loan interest rates, to 6%-7%/year. . Lower deposit interest rates have created favorable conditions for lending rates to follow.

Agribank's deposit interest rate in 2015 was relatively stable. In the first 4 months of the year, when credit did not increase strongly and CPI maintained a downtrend, the interest rate level was quite stable and tended to decrease slightly. Then, from the end of the second quarter, interest rates were under pressure to increase again when credit growth warmed up and exchange rate risks were high. Accordingly, Agribank slightly increased deposit interest rates in terms of terms. However, for the whole year of 2015, deposit interest rates decreased by about 0.2%-0.5% compared to the end of 2014. Specifically, deposit interest rates for short terms under 6 months were common in the range of 4%-5.5%/year, term of 6 months or more is about 5.4%-7.2%/year.

3.3.2 Actual situation of lending interest rates

Figure 3.3: Movement of lending interest rates at Agribank in relation to basic interest rates for the period 2008-2015

22

20

18

16

14

twelfth

ten

8

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LSNH LSTDH LSCB

(Source: Agribank, State Bank of Vietnam for the period 2008-2015) In 2008, Agribank's lending activities were moderate, lending businesses faced difficulties due to high interest rates and difficult access to capital. the lowest credit growth in the year continuously increased by less than 1%/month. From the end of July, along with the new lending mechanism and support from the State Bank with the system's available capital increased sharply, interest rates in the market began to decrease. Especially from September to the end of 2008, the State Bank adjusted down the LSCB, the refinancing interest rate, the rediscount rate, the deposit interest rate decreased to about 8%/year and the maximum lending rate of Agribank from above. 20%/year returns to 12.75%/year.

At the beginning of February 2009, LSCB decreased to 7%/year, leading to Agribank's maximum lending rate reduced from 12.75% to 10.5%/year. Immediately after the LSCB was raised to 8%/year from 7%/year on December 1, 2009, Agribank adjusted the lending interest rate to the allowable ceiling rate of 12%. The negotiable lending interest rate for capital needs for life, lending through the issuance and use of popular credit cards is from 15-17%/year. with loans to invest in real estate, financial assets (gold, foreign currency, securities and other financial assets,...) and activities related to production and business. With the above decision , Agribank was forced to apply a ceiling interest rate of 12%/year for loans other than consumption purposes. At the same time, with the situation of capital mobilization increasingly difficult,

In 2010, in order to create conditions for the money market to operate according to market rules with state management, the State Bank gradually abolished binding regulations on operating interest rates. Specifically, the SBV issued Circular 03/2010/TT-NHNN, Circular 07/2010/TT-NHNN, Circular 12/2010/TT-NHNN allowing credit institutions to make loans in VND according to the agreed interest rate mechanism. . Previously, LSCB was an important basis for commercial banks to set LSCV. However, that role was disabled when in April 2010, the State Bank reopened the negotiable interest rate mechanism.

2011: According to the report of the State Bank, the actual average lending interest rate was quite stable. Specifically, Agribank's lending interest rates for agriculture, rural areas and exports are about 17-19%/year, in other production and business fields about 17-21%/year, and about 22-2%/year in non-manufacturing fields. 25%/year.

In 2012, the State Bank encouraged commercial banks to reduce lending interest rates by imposing a ceiling on lending interest rates of 15%/year in four essential fields including agriculture and rural areas, export, supporting industries, enterprises. Small and medium-sized loans and old loans since mid-2012. Following the decline in deposit rates, Agribank's short-term lending rates have also been adjusted and ranged from 9%-13%/year at the time. At the end of the year, however, interest rates for long-term loans are still at a high level of 15%-17%/year.

In 2013, Agribank's lending interest rate dropped to 7%-10% for short terms and 11%-13% for long terms.

In 2014, Agribank's lending interest rates for priority sectors remained at 7%/year for short-term, production and business sectors 7%-9%/year for short-term, 9.5%- 11% for medium and long term. The current interest rate level is relatively consistent with the economic developments, especially inflation, exchange rate pressure and system liquidity.

In 2015, lending interest rates were relatively stable. According to the State Bank, lending interest rates for priority sectors are commonly 6%-7%/year for short-term and 9%-10%/year for medium and long-term. Sharing the same trend of reducing deposit interest rates, Agribank's lending interest rates decreased by about 0.3%-0.5% compared to the end of 2014. In which, lending interest rates were in normal production and business sectors. at 6.8%-9%/year for short-term, 9.3%-11%/year for medium and long-term.

3.4 Transmission from the State Bank's interest rate policy to deposit and lending rates at Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam

3.4.1 Transmission from refinancing rate to deposit and lending rates

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