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Year of Innovation, National Political Publishing House, 2005.


PL-2.6: Model results analyzing the impact of trade liberalization.



Variable tax rate (0%)

Government Losses (USD)

Domestic producer losses (USD)

Economic efficiency for society (USD)

Consumer surplus (USD)

Reduced employment (workers)

1. Plastic

ingredient

3

24,640,080

12,165,847

35,411

36,841,338

169

2. Grease

flora and fauna

4

8,656,917

3,902,164

2,253

12,561,334

663

3. Paper of all kinds

10

20,235,292

16,855,166

155,351

37,245,810

2,274

4. Chemicals

type

2

10,527,664

4,727,064

11,665

15,266,393

688

5. Car

40

94,053,558

71,666,304

582,134

166,301,996

1,360

6. Fiber

3

8,785,010

5,854,690

24,013

14,663,714

1,115

7. Steel

4

62,041,833

41,239,150

54,029

103.335.011

1,004

8.Pesticides

& fuel

3

4,549,471

2,771,830

35,553

7,356,827

227

9. Accessories

cigarette

5

12,830,865

8,862,553

188,431

21,881,849

923

Total


246,320,690

168,044,741

1,088,840

415,454,272

8,423

Maybe you are interested!

Source: Measuring the impact of trade liberalization in Vietnam, ministerial research project number B2003-38-67


PL-2.7: Import, export, consumption and production of inorganic fertilizers in EU15 in 1995/96


Value

(billion euros)

Mass

(million tons of products)

Import

1.8

13.4

Export

0.6

4.4

Output

6.5

50

Demand

7.7

59

Source: Eurostat


PL-2.8: EU consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers 15

period 1992/93-1997/98.

Source: EFMA/EUROSTAT


1995/96

1992/93

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Series1 Series2

EU15 average inorganic fertilizer use

95/96 and 92/93 (kg/ha)

PL-2.9: EU15 Average Inorganic Fertilizer Use Rate 1995/96 & 1992/93 (kg/ha)



Netherlands

Belgium/Lux

Finland

France

Virtue

Ireland

Denmark

Older brother

Sweden

Italy

Spain

shirt

Greece

Portugal

PL-2.10: EU15 inorganic fertilizer consumption forecast

Source: EFMA/EUROSTAT



EU15 inorganic fertilizer consumption forecast (million tonnes of nutrients)

Year

N

P2O5​​​

K2O​​


Consumption

Change (%)

Consumption

Change (%)

Consumption

Change (%)

1995/1996

9,676


3,562


4,234


2000/2001

9,259

-4.3

3,398

-4.6

3,951

-6.7

2005/2006

9,171

-5.2

3,399

-4.6

4,007

-5.4

Source: EFMA, (1996)


PL-2.11: EU15 annual nitrogen fertilizer consumption and imports 1989/90-1997/98.

Year

Amount of consumption

use N (million tons)

Amount of NK N

(million tons)

Ratio

Import/Consumption N

Amount of NK N

from CEE/CIS (million tonnes)

Import/export ratio

use N from CEE/CIS

1989/90

11.0

1.5

13.6%

0.55

5%

1990/91

10.0

2.1

21%

1.1

11%

1991/92

9.6

1.95

20.3%

1.15

12%

1992/93

9.05

1.98

21.9%

1.45

16%

1993/94

10.3

2.46

23.9%

1.75

17%

1994/95

9.5

2.5

26.2%

1.8

19%

1995/96

9.68

2.5

25.7%

2.03

21%

1996/97

10.93

2.7

24.7%



1997/98

11.6

2.73

23.5%



Source: EFMA


Fertilizer consumption and import

of EU1989/1997 (million tonnes)

PL-2.12: EU15 fertilizer N consumption and imports 1989/90-1997/98.



14


12


10


8


6


4


2


0

1990 1991 1992 1993

1994

Year

1995 1996 1997 1998

Source: EFMA/EUROSTAT


PL-2.13: Level of use and cost of alternative inputs for ammonia production


Natural gas

Heavy kerosene

Charcoal

Energy costs

1.0

1.3

1.7

Investment costs

1.0

1.4

2.4

Production cost

1.0

1.2

1.7

Source: EFMA, 2004


PL-2.14: Comparison of competitive advantages between some major nitrogen fertilizer producing countries and regions in the world today


EU

China

Russia

Central and Eastern Europe

America

Middle East

Technology

Modern

Many factories

small

Need to change

Need to change

Modern

Modern

Input

Mainly natural gas

of course

Mainly coal

Natural gas

Mainly natural gas

of course

Natural gas

Natural gas

Energy costs

High

Lack

cheap energy

Short

High/medium

Medium

Very low

Effective

energy

High

short

short

medium

High

High

CO 2 emissions / unit

N

short

very high

High

high/medium

short

Short


Gas price

High

High

Low/Medium

Medium

High

Short

Safety & Requirements

environment

High

Short

Short

Low/medium

High

High/medium

Logistics

have advantage

have transportation problems

air ports

effective

little advantage

have advantage

have advantage

Market Access

school

near the

near the

distant

close to

medium

near the

distant

Profit

1995

central

jar

short

very low

low/medium

jar

High

High



PL-2.15: World economic growth 1996-2005

Source: IFA, 2004



Developed economies


Developing economies

GDP growth ( %)

World


Source: IMF, 2004


PL-2.16: World demand for inorganic fertilizers in 2002/03, 2003/04 and forecast for 2004/05

Unit: 1000 tons

Basic nutrients


2002/03


2003/04

Change 2003/04 vs 2002/03 (%)

2004/05

Change 2004/05 vs 2003/04 (%)

N

84944

85868

1.1%

88252

2.8%

P2O5​​​

33791

34651

2.5%

35637

2.8%

K2O​​

23776

24986

5.1%

25897

3.6%

Total

142512

145505

2.1%

149786

2.5%

Source: IFIA


PL-3.1: Results of Vietnam's agricultural production in the period 1981-1985:


Target

Average 1981-1985

Compare 1981-1985 average with 1976-1980 average (%)

Food output in paddy equivalent (million tons)

16.9

127

Rice yield per crop (quintal/ha)

24.25

123

Average food (kg/person)

295

114

Source: Vietnam Agriculture in Sustainable Development, Dr. Nguyen Tu, National Political Publishing House, 2004.


PL-3.2: Grain production achieved during the period 1990-2004.


Year

Output (thousand tons)

Speed ​​of increase

(%)

Rice growing area

(Thousand hectares)

Annual rice yield (tons/ha)

Average SL LT per capita (kg)

Speed ​​of increase

(%)

1990

19896.1

0.3

6042.8

31.8

301.4

-1.6

1991

20293.9

2.0

6302.8

31.1

301.8

0.1

1992

22338.3

10.1

6475.3

33.3

326.3

8.1

1993

23718.7

6.2

6559.4

34.8

340.6

4.4

1994

24672.1

4.0

6598.6

35.7

348.4

2.3

1995

26140.9

6.0

6765.6

36.9

363.1

4.2

1996

27933.4

6.9

7003.8

37.7

381.8

5.2

1997

29174.5

4.4

7099.7

38.8

392.6

2.8

1998

30757.5

5.4

7362.7

39.6

407.6

3.8

1999

33146.9

7.8

7648.1

41.0

432.7

6.2

2000

34535.4

4.2

7655.4

42.4

444.8

2.8

2001

34270.1

-0.8

7492.7

42.9

435.5

-2.1

2002

36958.4

6.1

7504.3

45.9

463.6

4.8

2003

37452.3

4.0

7449.3

46.3

464.8

2.3

2004

39322.9

4.1

7328.0

48.6

479.1

2.6

2005

39549.0



48.9



2006

39648.0



49.3



Source: 1. Vietnam Economic Times 2. Science and Technology Agriculture and Rural Development

20 years of innovation, National Political Publishing House, 2005.


PL-3.3: Some basic economic indicators of Vietnam in the period 1991-2005



Year

GDP

(trillion VND)

GDP growth rate (%)

GDP (billion USD)

Export value (billion USD)

Export/Import ratio

GDP

Inflationary

Exchange rate VND/USD

1991

76,707

5.81

8,271

2,0871

25.2

67.4

9274

1992

110,050

8.70

9,870

2,5807

26.1

17.5

11150

1993

136,570

8.08

12,836

2,9852

23.3

5.2

10640

1994

170,260

8.83

15,542

4,0543

26.1

14.4

10955

1995

228,891

9.54

20,714

5,4489

26.3

12.7

11050

1996

272,030

9.34

24,556

7,2559

29.5

4.5

11078

1997

313,624

8.15

26,114

9,1850

35.0

3.6

12010

1998

368,690

5.76

27,310

9,3603

34.3

9.2

13500

1999

399,942

4.77

28,365

11,5414

40.7

0.1

14100

2000

441,800

6.79

31,347

14,4830

46.2

-0.6

14094

2001

481,300

6.89

32,686

15,0290

46.0

0.8

14725

2002

536,100

7.08

35,085

16,7061

47.6

4.0

15280

2003

613,400

7.34

38,974

20,1493

51.8

3.0

15536

2004

715,300

7.79

45,295

26,5042

57.4

9.5

15750

2005

837,900

8.43

52,731

32,2330

61.1

8.6

15890

Source: Vietnam Economic Times


PL-3.3 (continued)


Year

Population (thousand people)

Growth rate (%)

Fertilizer output (thousand tons)

Fertilizer imports (thousand tons)

Pesticide imports (million USD)

Total

urea

Total

urea

1991

67242.4

1.86


44,890

2663

1080

23

1992

68450.1

1.80


82,633

2420

424

24

1993

69644.5

1.74


100,093

3018

1250

33

1994

70824.5

1.69


103,222

4134

1543

59

1995

71995.5

1.65


110,972

2316.9

1356

100.4

1996

73156.7

1.61

965

120,471

2630

1467

89

1997

74306.9

1.57

982

130,170

2527

1480

130

1998

75456.3

1.55

978

63,905

3448

1944

126.3

1999

76569.7

1.51

1143.1

48,769

3702.9

1893

133.1

2000

77635.4

1.36

1209.5

76,145

3971.3

2108,

3

143.5

2001

78685.8

1.35

1065.1

98,971

3288

1652

102.8

2002

79727.4

1.32

2640.1

107,141

3820

1818

116.5

2003

80902.4

1.47

3001.0

148,196

4119

1943

116

2004

82032.3

1.40

3490.0

390,000

4079

1708

210

2005

83121.7

1.33

4320.0

860,000

2908

883

244

Source: Vietnam Economic Times, Vietnam Ministry of Trade, Ha Bac Fertilizer and Chemical Company - 45 years of construction and growth (1960-2005)


PL-3.4: Urea and NPK fertilizer output of Ha Bac nitrogen fertilizer factory in the period 1986-2005, [20]


Year

urea (ton)

NPK

(ton)


Year

urea (ton)

NPK

(ton)

1986

16862

11884

1996

120471

4775

1987

19600

21769

1997

130170

3472

1988

33006

14460

1998

63905

6920

1989

25762

3480

1999

48769

14259

1990

23603

3886

2000

76145

7260

1991

44890

8568

2001

98971

9639

1992

82633

6940

2002

107141

9592

1993

100093

3211

2003

148196

12501

1994

103222

4045

2004

162268

11465

1995

110972

3190

2005

160000

15000

Source: Ha Bac Fertilizer and Chemical Company - 45 years of construction and growth (1960-2005)


PL-3.5: Fertilizer output and import of Vietnam in the period 2000-2005

Unit: 1,000 tons;


Type of fertilizer

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Urea fertilizer

76

99

107

148

390

880

Phosphate fertilizers of all kinds

1,017

1,027

1,050

1.155

1,250

1450

NPK fertilizer

1,209

1,100

1,500

1,700

1,850

2,000

Total output

2,302

2,226

2,657

3.001

3,490

4320

Import volume

3,971


3,288

3,820


4.119


4,079

2,908

Source: Ministry of Trade, Department of Planning and Investment

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