Strongly invest in rural infrastructure systems, especially in building rural transport, small industrial clusters and residential clusters, towns, and townships, and continue to promote support for housing and land for rural people. Allocate reasonable land funds to develop rural transport infrastructure and ensure traffic safety corridors and protect the environment.
3.2.2 Objectives of land use structure transformation to serve the requirements of Industrialization - Modernization of the Red River Delta region by 2020
To achieve the goal of our country basically becoming an industrialized country by 2020, in the next decade, the speed of industrial, service and urbanization development will continue to increase faster than the past decade, so the demand for land for infrastructure development, industry, services and urbanization will also increase.
3.2.2.1 Land use structure for economic sectors
Regarding the agricultural land structure, the goal of shifting the economic structure of the Red River Delta from now until 2015 is to reduce the proportion of agricultural production value by about 4.5%. With the trend of shifting 1% of production value from agriculture to non-agriculture equivalent to a 0.45% decrease in the proportion of agricultural land in the land use area and a 0.38% increase in the proportion of non-agricultural production and business land in the land use area, by 2015, the proportion of agricultural land in the Red River Delta will decrease by about 2%, the structure of non-agricultural production and business land will increase by about 0.17% in the land use area.
For localities such as Hanoi and Hai Phong, according to the shifting trend, the economic structure of these two localities will shift towards the direction of trade and service - industry - agriculture. On the other hand, agricultural production activities of these two localities have lower productivity than the average level of the whole region, so the possibility of continuing to reduce the proportion of agricultural land may occur. According to the calculation in the current situation of the trend of land use planning, an average of 1% reduction in the proportion of agricultural production value is equivalent to 0.57% to 0.64% reduction in agricultural land area in land use planning. According to the forecast of economic development targets until 2015 of these two provinces, the proportion of agricultural production value of Hanoi will decrease from 0.5 - 1% equivalent to the agricultural land structure decreasing from 0.28 - 0.64% and for Hai Phong, the proportion of agricultural production value will decrease about 1 - 2% equivalent to the proportion of agricultural land decreasing from about 1.14 - 1.28% in CCSDĐ, an average decrease of 0.22 - 0.25% per year. By 2020, the proportion of agricultural production value of Hanoi will continue to decrease compared to 2015 by about 1-1.5% equivalent to the structure
Agricultural land decreased from 0.57 - 0.96%. For Hai Phong in 2020, the proportion of agricultural production decreased from 2-3% compared to 2015, the proportion of agricultural land decreased by about 1.14 - 1.92%.
Vinh Phuc is a province with a relatively high proportion of remaining agricultural land, nearly 70%, but low agricultural land productivity, so converting agricultural land use rights to other purposes is a good thing to do. For provinces in the process of industrial development, an average 1% reduction in the proportion of agricultural production value in the production value structure is equivalent to a 0.35 - 0.53% reduction in the proportion of agricultural land in the land use rights. Thus, by 2015, the proportion of agricultural land in Vinh Phuc will be about 69% and by 2020 it will be about 65.5 - 67%.
For the provinces of Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, on average, a 1% decrease in agricultural production value means a 0.35 - 0.53% decrease in the proportion of agricultural land in the CCSDĐ. However, it must also be considered that these are localities in the process of industrialization and modernization of agriculture and rural areas in phase 2, the economic structure of these provinces is gradually moving towards the same structure as Hanoi and Hai Phong in the past, in the coming time, the CDCSSDĐ level of these localities may gradually increase to a higher level like Hanoi and Hai Phong. However, in the near future, when the proportion in agricultural production value has not yet decreased to 3 - 4%, the decrease in the proportion of agricultural land is still low. So, it can be seen that in the period of 2011 - 2015, with the decrease in the proportion of agricultural production of Hai Duong, the agricultural land structure of Hai Duong is 0.5%, the decrease in the proportion of agricultural land will be around 0.17 - 0.27%, for Bac Ninh, the proportion of agricultural production decreased by about 2%, the proportion of agricultural land decreased by about 0.7 - 1.06% and for Hung Yen, the proportion of agricultural production was from 0.5 - 1%, so it can be seen that the proportion of agricultural land area decreased by about 0.17 - 0.53%, an average decrease of about 0.04% per year.
-0.13%. In 2020, in the economic structure of these provinces, agriculture only accounts for a low proportion of less than 10%, the rate of agricultural land use planning of these provinces will increase faster, reaching the current level of Hanoi and Hai Phong.
For Thai Binh and Ninh Binh provinces, due to the economic structure still heavily dependent on agriculture, agricultural land still accounts for a high proportion in CCSDĐ, so in the coming time, agricultural production value will decrease sharply, Thai Binh decreased from 45.46% in 2010 to 24.7% in 2015, Ninh Binh also decreased from 19% to 10% in the same period. Therefore, there is
The structure of agricultural land cannot decrease as slowly as in the recent period, which is an average of 1% decrease in the proportion of agricultural production in the economic structure equivalent to 0.03 - 0.15% decrease in the proportion of agricultural land in the land use index, but must reach an average decrease in the land use index like in the provinces of Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, and Hung Yen. It is forecasted that from now until 2015, the proportion of agricultural land will decrease equivalent to a 1% decrease in the proportion of agricultural production, from 0.35% to 0.53%. Therefore, the proportion of agricultural land in Thai Binh will decrease by 7 - 10% in the land use index, and the proportion of agricultural land in Ninh Binh will decrease by about 3.1 - 4.8% in the land use index. In 2020, the economic structure is almost as stable as in 2015, so the land use index will not have any major fluctuations.
As analyzed in the current status of CCSDLD and the structure of industrial production value, localities such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen all have low industrial land use productivity. Hanoi and Hai Phong both have the goal of shifting the economic structure from industry and agriculture to trade and services, so the proportion of industrial production value will decrease in the period 2010 - 2020. Therefore, with the above industrial development goal, Hanoi and Hai Phong should continue to invest, exploit and improve the efficiency of using existing industrial land funds, and should not continue to expand industrial land area. Therefore, the industrial land area of these two localities will be stable at the level of 2010. Regarding the industrial land structure of the whole region, on average, for every 1% of the proportion of production value shifting from agriculture to industry or trade and services, 0.38% of industrial and trade and services land will increase in CCSDLDLD. So, by 2015, with 4.5% of the proportion of production value shifting from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector, there will be an increase of about 1.71% of the proportion of industrial and commercial land. However, this proportion is not divided equally between the two sectors, industry and commercial services, and the economic development target by 2015 is to reduce the proportion of industrial production value by 14% and increase the proportion of commercial services by 18.5%. Therefore, industry is the sector that does not need to increase its area but mainly uses the industrial land area that was planned for the period 2001-2010 but has not been filled and fully utilized. By 2020, most localities will have stabilized their industrial economic structure like the structure in 2015, such as Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Ninh Binh. Even Hai Phong and Hai Duong have reduced the proportion of industrial production in the economic structure, but the reduction is low, only 1 - 3%, so it can be seen that the proportion of industrial land in these two provinces does not need to change much.
Particularly for Thai Binh and Nam Dinh, the rate of increase in the proportion of industrial production value is quite high in 2015 - 2020, from 11 - 14%, so the structure of industrial land area also needs to change to meet this demand. In Thai Binh, on average, a 1% increase in the proportion of industrial production value requires an increase in the proportion of industrial land area by 0.11%, while this figure for Nam Dinh is 0.10%. Therefore, the proportion of industrial land use area in Thai Binh must also increase by 1.1% and Nam Dinh must increase by 1.4% to serve the land use needs of the industrial sector in these two provinces.
For the trade and service industry, the proportion of the trade and service industry's production value in the period of 2011 - 2015 in Hanoi increased by 11%. However, because the proportion of land area for trade and service in Hanoi is already high and the efficiency of land use for trade and service is low, the trend from now until 2020 is to maintain stable land area, invest in exploitation to improve the efficiency of land use for trade and service. For Hai Phong, because the structure of production value and land use structure for trade and service almost did not change in the period of 2004 - 2010, it is possible to predict the land use structure in the period of 2011 - 2020 of Hai Phong based on the land use structure of Hanoi because these are two urban areas with a tendency to shift the economic structure towards trade and service - industry - agriculture.
For other provinces such as Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Ha Nam, the proportion of commercial and service land also increased by about 5 - 15%. Because these provinces have not really exploited the full potential of commercial and service land for economic development. Therefore, the task of these localities in the coming time is to focus investment resources on exploiting commercial and service activities on existing land funds for economic development, and should not invest in expanding commercial and service land area. By 2020, the proportion of commercial and service industry's production value will hardly fluctuate compared to the level of 2015, so the land use rights for the commercial and service industry will not need to fluctuate much. Particularly for Vinh Phuc, due to the goal of shifting the economic structure to increase the proportion of commercial and service industry's production value to about 6 - 7% compared to 2015, the land use rights of the commercial and service industry also need to increase by about 0.12 - 0.14% in the land use rights. Ha Nam has a target of increasing the proportion of commercial and service land from 19.94% in 2010 to 32% in 2015 and 33.2% in 2020, so the proportion of commercial and service land in this province has increased the most.
The provinces of Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Ninh Binh, although the proportion of commercial land area of these localities is the lowest compared to other localities in the whole region, still contribute to the economy an average proportion of production value, proving that the efficiency of commercial land use in these localities is relatively good. If in the coming time, the commercial land fund of these localities continues to expand, the proportion of land area increases, the proportion of production value of the commercial sector will likely increase further, contributing more to the structure of production value of the economy in the above localities. Therefore, investment in expanding the commercial land fund in the coming time is necessary. Nam Dinh province has the goal of shifting the economic structure with the commercial sector increasing the proportion of about 3.5% compared to 2015, so the proportion of commercial land use in 2015 of the province also needs to increase by about 0.07%. This figure in other provinces is calculated in table 3.2.
Table 3.2: Targets for economic restructuring and land use structure by 2015
Unit: %
Conscious
Land area ratio 2015 | Land area ratio 2020 | |||||
NN | CN | TMDV | NN | CN | TMDV | |
Hanoi | 55.94-56.3 | 2.76 | 0.93 | 60 - 60.5 | 2.76 | 1.09 |
Hai Phong | 53.7-53.84 | 3.36 | 1.14 | 52.5-53.5 | 3.36 | 1.25-1.3 |
Vinh Phuc | 69 | 2.45 | 0.9 | 65.5-67.5 | 2.45 | 1 |
Bac Ninh | 58.15-58.5 | 5.06 | 0.5 | 58.15-58.5 | 5.06 | 0.5 |
Hai Duong | 63.5-63.6 | 2.84 | 0.6 | 62.5-63 | 2.84 | 0.6 |
Hung Yen | 62.8-63.15 | 2.01 | 0.41 | 62 | 2.01 | 0.41 |
Ha Nam | 64.5 | 2.47 | 0.54 | 64.5 | 2.47 | 0.6 |
Nam Dinh | 68.5 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 68.5 | 2.51 | 0.75 |
Peace | 60-62 | 0.71 | 0.44 | 60-62 | 1.81 | 0.44 |
Ninh Binh | 64.5-66 | 1.72 | 0.78 | 64.5-66 | 1.72 | 0.78 |
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Source: Author's calculation based on the economic restructuring target in political reports and Congress resolutions on socio-economic and environmental development plans of provinces, cities, districts and towns for the period 2011-2015 and the master plan for socio-economic development of localities for the period 2010-2020.
Within the agricultural sector, the economic structure and land use rights must also shift to meet the requirements of the development process. In the coming decade, the production structure within the agricultural sector will continue to change in the direction of a decrease in the proportion of the crop sector, an increase in the proportion of the livestock, aquaculture and service sectors; within the crop sub-sector, there will continue to be a shift in the direction of a part of the rice production land area being converted to vegetables, flowers, fruits with high nutritional value and economic efficiency, animal feed crops, etc. However, due to the food security policy and the policy of restricting the conversion of rice land to other types of land, the rice land area will not decrease much. The types of land that will decrease are mainly types of crop land with low economic efficiency, barren, and cannot be improved.
- Cultivation industry:
With the shifting trend of the structure of production value and land area of the crop industry, it is expected that by 2015, the structure of production value and land area of the crop industry will be as follows (calculation of land indexes based on the proportion of land area that needs to increase or decrease to increase or decrease 1% of production value):
Table 3.3: Shifting trend of crop production value and cropland area in the Red River Delta in the period 2011 - 2015
Unit: %
Conscious
Proportion of GTSX in crop production | Proportion of cultivated land area | |||
2010 | 2015 | 2010 | 2015 | |
Delta | 58.66 | 52.74 | 77.11 | 75.50 |
Hanoi | 56.11 | 54.85 | 80.77 | 79.23 |
Hai Phong | 58.02 | 51.61 | 59.99 | 58.84 |
Vinh Phuc | 45.22 | 31.83 | 58.04 | 54.53 |
Bac Ninh | 52 | 45.66 | 88.15 | 87.29 |
Hai Duong | 64.65 | 59.83 | 80.88 | 78.62 |
Hung Yen | 57.95 | 49.54 | 91.31 | 90.47 |
Ha Nam | 58.76 | 50.89 | 79.13 | 80.18 |
Nam Dinh | 60.73 | 52.34 | 82.63 | 81.63 |
Peace | 61.38 | 55.22 | 83.3 | 78.71 |
Ninh Binh | 68.78 | 65.62 | 63.3 | 59.06 |
Source: Compiled from statistical yearbook, statistical data, land inventory from 2004 - 2010 and author's calculations.
Due to the characteristics of the crop production sector, land is a special and main means of production, so when the proportion of crop production value decreases, the proportion of cultivated land area will certainly decrease. In general, the production value of the crop production sector continues to decrease in localities in the Red River Delta, however, the rate of decrease is uneven. In the coming years, cultivated land will still account for the majority in provinces where the agricultural sector still accounts for a large proportion in the economic structure. Hung Yen, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh and Thai Binh are the provinces with the highest proportion of cultivated land area in the Red River Delta. These are also the provinces that focus on developing the agricultural sector, especially growing food crops.
- Livestock industry
Table 3.4: Shifting trend of livestock production value and livestock land area in the Red River Delta in the period 2011 - 2015
Unit: %
Conscious
Proportion of livestock production value | Proportion of livestock land area | |||||
2004-2010 | 2010 | 2015 | 2004-2010 | 2010 | 2015 | |
Delta | 6.03 | 36.47 | 40.78 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.26 |
Hanoi | 1.49 | 41.85 | 42.91 | 0.2 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
Hai Phong | 8.25 | 39.01 | 44.90 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.23 |
Vinh Phuc | 17.39 | 47.46 | 59.88 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
Bac Ninh | 7.95 | 43.25 | 48.93 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
Hai Duong | 5.52 | 31.25 | 35.19 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
Hung Yen | 10.2 | 38.9 | 46.19 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
Ha Nam | 9.31 | 37 | 43.65 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.62 |
Nam Dinh | 11.03 | 36.19 | 44.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
Peace | 8.14 | 35.15 | 40.96 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
Ninh Binh | 3.83 | 29.1 | 31.84 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
Source: Compiled from statistical yearbook, statistical data, land inventory from 2004 - 2010 and author's calculations.
By 2020, the livestock industry will basically shift to farm and industrial production, meeting most of the demand for quality food for consumption and export; The proportion of livestock in the region's agriculture by 2020 will reach over 42%, of which 38% in 2015;
The structure of livestock land has also shifted with the proportion of livestock land accounting for about 0.26% of the total agricultural land area. The proportion of livestock land is highest in localities such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Ha Nam, Hung Yen. Hai Duong and Vinh Phuc are provinces with little livestock land area both in absolute and relative terms.
- Fisheries industry
Table 3.5: Shifting trend of aquaculture production value and aquaculture land area in the Red River Delta in the period 2011 - 2015
Unit: %
Conscious
Proportion of production value of fisheries industry | Proportion of land area for aquaculture | |||||
2004-2010 | 2010 | 2015 | 2004-2010 | 2010 | 2015 | |
Delta | 3.43 | 13.3 | 15.75 | 1 | 8.59 | 9.30 |
Hanoi | 2.27 | 6.98 | 8.60 | 0.7 | 5.69 | 6.19 |
Hai Phong | 1.41 | 21.65 | 22.66 | 1.16 | 14.21 | 15.04 |
Vinh Phuc | 1.77 | 5.99 | 7.25 | 1.55 | 4.15 | 5.26 |
Bac Ninh | 5.02 | 11.79 | 15.38 | 0.81 | 10.28 | 10.86 |
Hai Duong | 5.21 | 12.19 | 15.91 | 0.96 | 8.77 | 9.46 |
Hung Yen | 3.23 | 7.01 | 9.32 | 0.88 | 8.33 | 8.96 |
Ha Nam | 2.46 | 9.05 | 10.80 | 1.41 | 12.5 | 13.50 |
Nam Dinh | 3.47 | 17.89 | 20.38 | 1.86 | 10.17 | 11.50 |
Peace | 4.63 | 15.19 | 18.50 | 0.31 | 8.69 | 8.91 |
Ninh Binh | 2.6 | 10.36 | 12.22 | 0.21 | 5.99 | 6.14 |
Source: Compiled from statistical yearbook, statistical data, land inventory from 2004 - 2010 and author's calculations.