Home / Education Development

Building the content of the criteria framework for forecasting educational development in disadvantaged areas of Thai Nguyen province to 2015 - 2


6. RESEARCH METHODS

- Theoretical research methods group.

- Practical research methods group

- Other methods: Investigation, extrapolation, comparison, statistical mathematics, expert methods....

Maybe you are interested!

7. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH

- Thai Nguyen province.

Building the content of the criteria framework for forecasting educational development in disadvantaged areas of Thai Nguyen province to 2015 - 2

- The general education system in this topic is limited to the following levels: (Primary, Middle, High School), focusing on forecasting the scale of student population, school network, teaching staff, and conditions to ensure the development of education to carry out the forecast.

8. THESIS STRUCTURE: Consists of 3 parts.

Part A: Some general issues of the topic.

Part B: The content of the topic includes the following chapters:

Chapter 1: Theoretical basis of the issue of building criteria for forecasting educational development in disadvantaged areas

Chapter 2: Current status of educational development in disadvantaged areas of Thai Nguyen province.

Chapter 3: Building content criteria for forecasting educational development in disadvantaged areas of Thai Nguyen province to 2015.

Part C: Conclusion and Recommendations References

Appendix


CHAPTER 1

THEORETICAL BASIS OF THE PROBLEM OF BUILDING CRITERIA FOR FORECASTING EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN DIFFICULT AREAS


1.1. Some issues on educational forecasting

1.1.1 General concept of forecasting.

Many scholars have stated that: Today's world is in an era of accelerated and sudden movements, an era in which the future is directing the behavior of the present. Since ancient times in East Asia, moral books have recorded "Thinking about the past, contemplating the present" without making mistakes. If you want to know the future, you must examine the past, our ancestors used to remind us "reviewing the past, knowing the present" that is the basis of forecasting.

Nowadays, people predict the future not simply to "reveal the mystery" but for the more practical purpose of finding ways to adapt to the future and to some extent change and control the future. In the process of predicting the future, it is necessary to distinguish temporary events from fundamental trends. Profound changes in technology and society to outline "great trends" in the progress of the world. Those "great trends" are irresistible trends that often appear from the bottom up, bringing new perspectives, new movements, containing images of the future. Those great trends are of great importance to the strategies of each country. Therefore, predicting the future must have a global perspective in the long term. When considering any social phenomenon in its development and movement, there are always traces of the past, the foundation of the present, and the seeds of the future. Analyzing the history of things, discovering its development trends over time, can foresee the future. That is the scientific content of forecasting. With such concepts, forecasting is a pre-successor document.


The plan includes many options, in which the forecast results are not legal but only recommendatory.

Forecasting can be understood as scientifically based information about the level of status, relationships, and possible future development trends of the research object with a certain level of reliability and estimated objective conditions to be able to carry out that forecast.

Forecasting is understood as scientifically based interpretations of the possible state of the forecasted object in the future, of other paths, other time limits to reach those future states, at different times. Today, forecasting is built to strengthen the scientific basis for decision making, outline development strategies and is an effective tool for planning and managing the national economy. In terms of the nature of forecasting, forecasting is the ability to foresee the future with the most reliable level and estimate the objective conditions to realize that forecast. Forecasting is associated with that broad concept of prediction. Depending on the specific level and impact on the development of the phenomenon, we can divide prediction into different levels:

+ Hypothesis: Is a scientific prediction at the general theoretical level, a theory about a certain field containing the research object and the discovered regularities. It is the basis for building a scientific hypothesis that gives us qualitative characteristics, expressing the regularities of the development of the research object. The hypothesis is also qualitative.

+ Forecasting: There are not only qualitative parameters but also quantitative parameters. Therefore, forecasting is more definite than hypothesis. For forecasting, the level of uncertainty is lower and at the level of direct usability. Forecasting is a prediction at the specific application level of theory. However, forecasting does not determine tight, single-valued relationships for the forecasting object. Therefore, forecasting has the following characteristics:


probability. Thus, forecasting differs from hypothesis in specificity and applicability.

+ Plan: Is the prediction of specific, detailed events of the future. The plan must clearly state the paths and means to carry out the proposed tasks as scientific evidence for management decisions. The plan has characteristics and is monovalent.

In management, forecasting is a tool for building strategies, planning, and plans. Forecasting itself must be based on guidelines. If forecasting is accurate, it contributes to building strategies and plans. We can represent it in the following diagram:

Strategy

Policy guidelines

Diagram 1: Relationship of policy, strategy, planning, schedule and forecast.


Plan

Planning

Forecast


1.1.2 Forecast classification:

There are many criteria for classifying forecasts. Here we only choose some main criteria such as: by scope, object, and function to classify forecasts.

- Forecast classification by object scope.


We can forecast at macro level, micro level, cross-industry forecast, industry forecast, regional forecast, product forecast.

- Forecast classification by time: short-term forecast for 1-2 years, medium-term social forecast for 5-10 years, long-term social forecast for 15-20 years. The above time division is only relative, because a 5-year forecast period for this subject is medium-term but for another subject it may be short-term. Therefore, the division of forecast periods also depends on the subject of forecasting.

- Classify forecasts according to the characteristics of the object: Although each object is different, we have specific forecasts for that forecast such as:

+ Forecasting scientific and technological progress.

+ Forecasting social progress.

+ Forecasting natural resource usage.

+ Forecasting environmental pollution.

+ Population forecast.

+ Ecological forecasting

+ Forecasting educational development.

+ Weather forecast....

- Forecast classification by function:

+ Search forecasting: This is a type of forecasting with development trends that have existed in the past and present, we will have to forecast them to continue in the future, not taking into account conditions that can distort these trends. The task of search forecasting is to clarify how the forecasted object will develop and change in the future if the existing trend remains.

+ Normative forecasting: This is a type of forecasting built on the basis of predetermined goals. The task of this forecasting is to detect


the paths and deadlines to achieve the forecasted goals.

1.1.3. Approaches to forecasting:

- Historical approach: Is an approach that examines a phenomenon through its relationship with its historical form of existence.

When considering a phenomenon, we often place it in a reciprocal relationship with its historical forms of existence. That is the relationship between the past, present and future.

Forecasting must be associated with shifting the existing laws and trends of the object beyond its threshold to determine the future model of the object in the future. Of course, this shift is not simply in the mechanical sense but is a dialectical shift.

Practice is never separated from its history of development.

Therefore, practice and forecast have an organic relationship with each other. Forecast does not stop at the level of awareness but also becomes a tool to influence people's practical activities to improve objective reality.

- Complex approach: Consider phenomena and things in the universal relationship of phenomena and things. Phenomena and things are not alone in the process of existence, arising and developing. They always have a relationship with each other and affect each other. To reveal the nature of things and phenomena, we must use the achievements and methods of many different sciences. Thus, the complex approach is clearly shown in educational forecasting. Educational forecasting requires the participation of many sciences such as: Philosophy, psychology, economics, demography, mathematics...

- Systemic structure approach: On the one hand, it requires considering and studying the forecasting object as a complete system in the development movement.


On the other hand, the object under study is considered from the perspective of each constituent element in their mutual relationship and interaction, on that basis discovering the laws of movement and development of each element, of the relationships, as well as the entire object as a complete system.

1.1.4. Forecasting principles

- Principle of political, economic and scientific unity.

When making forecasts, it is always necessary to start from the overall goals and interests of the country. Forecasts must be based on scientific calculations of socio-economic development and scientific and technological progress. Education is a subsystem of the socio-economic system. Therefore, this principle is especially important in the process of drafting educational forecasts, because education is closely related to the development orientation of the whole society, to the political system, to the goals and requirements of economic development, to the capabilities required by scientific and technological progress.

- Calculation principle of forecasting system.

The models and methods used in forecasting must have an organic relationship with each other, have a logic of existence and complement each other, serve as a foundation for each other, and form a complete system. The systematic nature of forecasting requires the establishment of a strict order in the formation and use of forecasting models for a forecast of the complexity of the subject.

- Principles of scientific forecasting.

The higher the scientific basis, the more reliable the forecast. Forecasts must be built on the basis of scientific calculations and arguments, taking into account the laws of development of the forecasted object, observations and data that are sufficiently objective and reliable.

- Principle of forecasting appropriateness.


Forecasting must be compatible with the laws, with the regularity, with the objective development trend of the forecast object.

Forecasts must be consistent with demonstrated future performance.

- Multi-case principle for forecasting.

Forecasting must be linked to the development potential of the object according to different trajectories and paths. Multi-option is the demonstration of the power of scientifically based predictions, allowing the management agency (forecast users) to choose reasonable and optimal options to control the development of the forecast object according to set goals.

1.1.5. Concept of educational forecasting

Forecasting the development of education and training is one of the important issues of management work, in building a well-founded plan. Forecasting education is to determine the future state of the education system with a certain probability, in a certain period of time, described in the following diagram:

Figure 2: Overview of the forecasting process.


Influencing factors

Future state with probability P 1

Future state with probability P 2

Future state with probability P 3

Inertial state of the forecast object

Influencing factors

Current status of forecast objects

Comment


Agree Privacy Policy *