Appraisal of Binh Hoa apartment and office complex project for rent

Appendix 11. Crystal Ball results of apartment and land prices calculated according to state prices

Run preferences:

Number of trials run

10,000
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level	95.00%

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Run statistics:

Total running time (sec) 4.60

Trials/second (average) 2,172

Random numbers per second 2.172

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 1

Correlations 0

Correlated groups 0

Decision variables 0

Forecasts 6

Forecasts

Worksheet: [VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat

Forecast: Investor IRR, nominal

Summary:

Entire range is from 34.74% to 45.21% Base case is 40.58%

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0.01%

Statistics:

Forecast values

Trials 10,000

Mean 40.53%

Median 40.59%

Mode ---

Standard Deviation 1.42%

Variance 0.02%

Skewness -0.1898

Kurtosis 3.09

Coeff. of Variability 0.0350

Minimum 34.74%

Maximum 45.21%

Range Width 10.48%

Mean Std. Error 0.01%

Forecast: Investor IRR, nominal (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Forecast values

0% 34.74%

10% 38.68%

20% 39.36%

30% 39.80%

40% 40.21%

50% 40.59%

60% 40.93%

70% 41.30%

80% 41.72%

90% 42.32%

100% 45.21%

Forecast: Investor IRR, actual

Summary:

Entire range is from 24.75% to 34.46% Base case is 30.17%

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0.01%

Statistics:

Forecast values

Trials 10,000

Mean 30.12%

Median 30.17%

Mode ---

Standard Deviation 1.31%

Variance 0.02%

Skewness -0.1898

Kurtosis 3.09

Coeff. of Variability 0.0436

Minimum 24.75%

Maximum 34.46%

Range Width 9.70%

Mean Std. Error 0.01%

Forecast: Investor IRR, actual (cont'd)

Forecast

Percentiles: values

0% 24.75%

10% 28.41%

20% 29.04%

30% 29.45%

40% 29.83%

50% 30.17%

60% 30.49%

70% 30.83%

80% 31.22%

90% 31.78%

100% 34.46%

Forecast: Project IRR, nominal

Summary:

Entire range is from 30.28% to 39.04% Base case is 35.13%

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0.01%

Statistics:

Forecast values

Trials 10,000

Mean 35.09%

Median 35.14%

Mode ---

Standard Deviation 1.19%

Variance 0.01%

Skewness -0.1766

Kurtosis 3.09

Coeff. of Variability 0.0339

Minimum 30.28%

Maximum 39.04%

Range Width 8.76%

Mean Std. Error 0.01%

Forecast: Project IRR, nominal (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Forecast values

0% 30.28%

10% 33.55%

20% 34.11%

30% 34.49%

40% 34.83%

50% 35.14%

60% 35.43%

70% 35.73%

80% 36.09%

90% 36.59%

100% 39.04%

Forecast: Project IRR, actual

Summary:

Entire range is from 20.6% to 28.7% Base case is 25.1%

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0.0%

Statistics:

Forecast values

Trials 10,000

Mean 25.1%

Median 25.1%

Mode ---

Standard Deviation 1.1%

Variance 0.0%

Skewness -0.1766

Kurtosis 3.09

Coeff. of Variability 0.0439

Minimum 20.6%

Maximum 28.7%

Range Width 8.1%

Mean Std. Error 0.0%

Forecast: Project IRR, actual (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Forecast values

0% 20.6%

10% 23.7%

20% 24.2%

30% 24.5%

40% 24.8%

50% 25.1%

60% 25.4%

70% 25.7%

80% 26.0%

90% 26.5%

100% 28.7%

Forecast: Investor NPV

Summary:

Entire range is from 662.42 to 1573.80 Base case is 1116.17

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1.25

Statistics:

Forecast values

Trials 10,000

Mean 1115.84

Median 1116.73

Mode ---

Standard Deviation 125.36

Variance 15714.57

Skewness 0.0097

Kurtosis 3.02

Coeff. of Variability 0.1123

Minimum 662.42

Maximum 1573.80

Range Width 911.39

Mean Std. Error 1.25

Forecast: Investor NPV (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Forecast values
0%	662.42
10%	954.97
20%	1011.03
30%	1048.64
40%	1084.08
50%	1116.70
60%	1147.87
70%	1180.92
80%	1220.18
90%	1277.16
100%	1573.80

Forecast: Project NPV

Summary:

Entire range is from 646.88 to 1558.26 Base case is 1100.63

After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 1.25

Statistics:

Forecast values
Trials		10,000
Mean		1100.30
Median		1101.19
Mode		---
Standard Deviation		125.36
Variance		15714.57
Skewness		0.0097
Kurtosis		3.02
Coeff. of Variability		0.1139
Minimum		646.88
Maximum		1558.26
Range Width		911.39
Mean Std. Error		1.25
Forecast: Project NPV (cont'd)
Percentiles:		Forecast values
0%		646.88
10%		939.43
20%		995.49
30%		1033.10
40%		1068.54
50%		1101.16
60%		1132.33
70%		1165.38
80%		1204.64
90%		1261.62
100%		1558.26
End of Forecasts
		Assumptions
Worksheet: [VBH.xls]PtTaichinhThuc_VoiLPhat
Assumption: USD/m2/month