A: Method and Indicator System for Assessing Ecotourism Potential


+----------+----------+

+--------------------------------------------+

| Fit Measures for Binomial Choice Model |

| Logit model for variable Y |

+--------------------------------------------+

| Proportions P0= .341193 P1= .658807 |

| N = 721 N0= 246 N1= 475 |

| LogL = -92.82782 LogL0 = -462.7547 |

| Estrella = 1-(L/L0)^(-2L0/n) = .87282 |

+--------------------------------------------+

| Efron | McFadden | Ben./Lerman |

| .83759 | .79940 | .92626 |

| Cramer | Veall/Zim. | Rsqrd_ML |

| .83598 | .90100 | .64162 |

+--------------------------------------------+

| Information Akaike IC Schwarz IC |

| Criteria .28801 258.04268 |

+--------------------------------------------+

Frequencies of actual & predicted outcomes Predicted outcome has maximum probability. Threshold value for prediction Y=1 = .5000

Predicted

------

----------

+

-----

Actual

0 1

|

Total

------

----------

+

-----

0

226 20

|

246

1

16 459

|

475

------

----------

+

-----

Total

242 479

|

721

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A: Method and Indicator System for Assessing Ecotourism Potential


================================================================ =====================

Analysis of Binary Choice Model Predictions Based on Threshold = .5000

-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

Prediction Success

-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

Sensitivity = actual 1s correctly predicted 96.632%

Specificity = actual 0s correctly predicted 91.870% Positive predictive value = predicted 1s that were actual 1s 95.825% Negative predictive value = predicted 0s that were actual 0s 93.388% Correct prediction = actual 1s and 0s correctly predicted 95.007%

-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

Prediction Failure

-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

False pos. for true negation. = actual 0s predicted as 1s

8.130%

False neg. for true pos. = actual 1s predicted as 0s

3.368%

False pos. for predicted pos. = predicted 1s actual 0s

4.175%

False neg. for predicted neg. = predicted 0s actual 1s

6.612%

False predictions = actual 1s and 0s incorrectly predicted

4.993%

================================================================ =====================


Appendix 3a: METHODS AND SYSTEM OF INDICATORS FOR ASSESSING ECOTOURISM POTENTIAL

------------------

Assessing tourism potential is a process of examining resources according to certain criteria to serve tourism purposes. Assessing ecotourism potential is a direction in assessing tourism potential. Previously, tourism potential assessment was often used as "technical assessment" or also known as: "favorability assessment" or "comprehensive assessment" (Nguyen Thi Hai, 2002 [11]. With the development of information technology tools, today in many studies on the assessment of ecotourism resources, people apply econometrics in the assessment. In particular, for ecotourism, people also apply the Zonal travel cost zonal method (ZTCM). However, this method is only suitable for assessing each resource point such as national parks, beaches, etc., where ecotourism activities have developed. However, to assess an area consisting of many resource points, or resource points that have not yet developed ecotourism activities, this method is not suitable, because it does not determine the starting area of ​​tourists and cannot accurately separate the travel costs of tourists by region.

From the reality of VDLTB, after reviewing the current status of resources, many resource points in key areas are in the potential aspect. Therefore, in this thesis we apply the "comprehensive assessment" method to evaluate the value of resources for exploitation and development of ecotourism activities. The method is most commonly used today.

Evaluation steps

The steps are carried out in the comprehensive evaluation model according to diagram 1. In current research and practice, to evaluate the attractiveness of natural potentials, people use the scoring method according to each characteristic criterion. The evaluation "first needs to determine the scale for evaluation. The number of levels can have many or few types, depending on the level of necessity of the evaluation" . The evaluation usually has to be determined by a panel of judges" (Nguyen Van Hoa, 2006b) [20, 46].

The scoring method used in the topic is to determine the potential for ecotourism. Specifically , it is considered according to two criteria: the ability to attract and the ability to exploit each resource . We have collected the opinions of 16 experts with deep expertise and experience in the field of ecotourism at VDLTB. In addition , we also consulted the opinions of other experts to get more information for the experts to score ( see appendix 13a, 13b, 16a, 16b) . This method is conducted based on a criterion built in accordance with the reality of the research area in the current period . In order to build the scoring scale and criteria to be accurate and highly convincing , in addition to referring to some assessments


Regarding the potential of DLST of some studies, we have sought comments from some

Step 6: Review and rate the assessment results.

Step 2: Select evaluation factors

Step 3: Determine the levels of each factor

Step 4: Determine the score of each level & coefficients of factors

Step 5: Score each factor

Step 1: Build a rating scale

Overall rating

Evaluate each component

expert (see appendix 16a).



Figure 1: Comprehensive assessment model

This method has also been applied to evaluate in some localities in the region such as Thua Thien Hue... However, in this section, although the method is the same, through reviewing the studies , we have proposed a standard system with some different points for evaluation.

General assessment and ranking

* Calculate total score

After calculating the factors' scores, the total score is calculated as follows:

- Calculate the total score of the evaluation factors

n

F=

i=1

Mi*Xi

(1)

- Calculate the score of the factors :

n

F = M i X i i 1

(2)

In which: Mi: is the multiplier; Xi: Evaluation index; i= 1 n ; n: number of elements

In current research, people use both scoring methods. The scoring method will have advantages when the resource is still too wild or located in a sensitive area such as: located in a defense area... so that resource is attractive to


cannot be exploited for DLST anywhere. In this thesis we use the calculation method

total score because the resources considered have all been put in place for the development of ecotourism.

*Resource Point Classification

After the overall assessment, the ratio of the total or sum of the assessment scores to the maximum possible score is compared to classify. This is a fairly common method used in current research.

Second way: Apply Avasian's formula (1988). Distance between levels

can be calculated by

S = S max - S min

1+LogH (1)

S max: Maximum suction value ; S min: Minimum suction value ;

H: Number of points selected for evaluation

Or use the formula c Armand (1975) to calculate the rating number

S =


B: is the rating term

S max - S min

B (2)

In addition, in some studies, people can classify as follows: Type 1: resources with 70% or more points; Type 2: Resources with 50% to less than 70% points, Type 3: less than 50% points. In the thesis, we use formula (2) to classify resources. In order to see more clearly the tourism potential of resources, the thesis also combines the assessment of attraction and exploitation ability. In some previous studies, people also combined the calculation of the total score or the accumulation of the scores of these two criteria, then classified resources into type I, type II, type III. However, many experts do not agree with this method because these two criteria are not identical. Therefore, the thesis uses an analytical method to combine these two criteria.

1.1. Evaluation of the ability to attract customers

Built for 4 main criteria: Attractiveness; safety ; connectivity ; quality of infrastructure and technical facilities for tourism.

- The attractiveness of natural tourism resources to tourists is the beauty and uniqueness of natural landscapes, the diversity of terrain, geomorphology, biodiversity, the suitability of climate for human health, the unique and original nature of relics, indigenous culture and natural phenomena.

- Safety is determined by political security, social order, and environmental sanitation.


- Connectivity is determined by the number of tourist attractions and the distance between tourist attractions in a certain space and the level of convenience for linking tourist attractions into tourist routes or clusters.

- Tourism infrastructure and technical facilities are determined by the convenience and synchronization of the transportation network, communications, electricity, water, facilities serving the needs of food, accommodation, entertainment and other support conditions... for tourists.

Each of the above criteria is evaluated according to 4 levels of scores: 4, 3, 2, 1 corresponding to the evaluation level from high to low (good, fair, average and poor) . The scoring criteria for each criterion are evaluated as follows:

a. Attractiveness

+ Very attractive (4 points): At least 5 beautiful landscapes, diverse terrain, unique and well-preserved ecosystems, able to organize at least 5 types of tourism, including at least one typical type. Great resources.

+ Quite attractive (3 points): There are 3 beautiful landscapes, a relatively diverse ecosystem in a well-preserved state, and 4 types of tourism can be organized. The resources are quite large.

+ Average (2 points): Has 1-2 beautiful landscapes, moderate biodiversity

Yes , can meet 1-2 types of tourism .

+ Poor (1 point ): Monotonous landscape , rich and diverse ecosystem, atypical , can only organize 1 type of tourism.

b. Safety (ecological and social)

- Very safe (4 points): No cases of instability in security, ecology and natural disasters; no terrorism , harassment, theft, robbery, kidnapping, street vending , begging, no epidemics.

- Quite safe (3 points): Has the above characteristics, however, there are only occasional harassment, begging, and street vending.

- Average (2 points): No robbery, extortion, terrorism,

kidnapping, natural disasters, epidemics, however, begging and street vending activities are still active.

- Poor (1 point): There is robbery , kidnapping, epidemic, threat to life.

human life , infringe on the property of tourists.

c. Connectivity

- Very good (4 points): There are at least 4 additional tourist resource points (including natural and human) located near the considered point within a radius of no more than 25 km, and 30 km for islands.

- Good (3 points ): There are 2 - 3 more tourist resource points within the area .


The point of consideration is not more than 25 km, except for islands, it is 30 km.

- Average (2 points): There is only 1 additional tourist resource point within 25 km.

- Poor (1 point ): There are no other linked tourism resource points within a 25 km radius of the considered point.

d. Tourism infrastructure and technical facilities

- Very good (4 points): Tourism infrastructure and technical facilities are synchronous and fully equipped; convenient access by road, river... with all types of accommodation, food and beverage facilities and services that meet standards, and sufficient additional services.

- Good (3 points): Tourism infrastructure and technical facilities are synchronous and convenient.

convenient access, with full range of accommodation , dining and entertainment services.

- Average (2 points): Infrastructure and technical facilities are not yet synchronized.

( lacking some elements such as: electricity supply, water supply and drainage, communication and some services ...).

- Poor (1 point): Tourism infrastructure and technical facilities are in poor condition or

low quality or lacking in many, difficult to get to those points, time consuming.

The above criteria have different levels of impact on tourist attraction. Therefore, to have an accurate overall assessment, it is necessary to determine the multiplier for each criterion according to its level of impact. Based on the overall score after multiplying the coefficient, tourism resource points will be divided into 3 types as follows :

- Type with high tourist attraction: Tourist resource points in the group

This has the potential to attract both international and domestic visitors.

- Medium attractiveness: Tourist resources in this group are currently capable of attracting mainly domestic visitors. To attract international visitors, there must be a larger investment.

- Low attraction type: Tourist resource spots in this group only have

ability to attract local customers.

1.2. Assessment of the ability to exploit ecotourism resources

In addition to the criteria of attractiveness, safety, connectivity, and tourism infrastructure, people also use three other criteria: seasonality, sustainability, and tourist capacity of each resource point.

- Seasonality is determined by the number of suitable days in the year for organizing tourism activities, welcoming and serving the needs of tourists. The seasonality of resources is affected by many factors, including the number of types of organizations.

- Sustainability is the ability to preserve and maintain natural components and parts under pressure from tourism activities and natural phenomena.

- Tourist capacity is the total maximum capacity of tourists at one time.


certain points in a day of a tourist resource site. The above criteria are also evaluated according to 4 points: 4, 3, 2, 1.

a. Seasonality

- Very long (4 points): Can organize tourism activities for more than 270 days/year.

- Quite long (3 points): Can organize tourism activities from 180 days to less

270 days/year.

- Average (2 points): Can organize tourism activities from 120 days to less than 180 days/year.

- Poor (1 point): Can organize tourism activities less than 120 days/year.

b. Sustainability

+ Very sustainable (4 points): The resource is in its original form with no natural components or parts destroyed, the ecological recovery ability of the environment is fast, and it exists firmly for over 100 years.

+ Quite sustainable (3 points): 1-2 natural components are damaged but not significantly, have the ability to recover quickly, and exist firmly for 50-100 years.

+ Average (2 points): There are 1-2 natural components that are damaged at a significant level.

It costs too much to restore and can last from 10 to 50 years.

+ Poor (1 point ): 2-3 natural components or parts are damaged at a significant level.

It costs too much to restore but is slow and will last less than 10 years.

c. Tourist capacity

+ Very large (4 points): Able to safely receive and accommodate (both visitors and natural resources) at least 250 people /visit.

+ Quite large (3 points): from 150 to 249 people/visit.

+ Average (2 points): from 50 to 149 people/visit.

+ 1 point less: under 50 people/tour.

The overall assessment score after processing the expert's dissenting opinions and being

Multiply the coefficient to determine the importance of the criteria for tourism activities.

Based on the total score of the criteria, the ability to exploit tourism resources is divided into 3 types as follows:

Type 1 : This type of tourism resourcehas many advantages in terms of exploitation potential.

serving both international and domestic guests .

Type 2 : This type has advantages at medium exploitation level. Usually requires investment projects.

with a large capital to organize to serve tourists.

Type 3: This type is not advantageous in terms of exploitation, so it is very difficult to exploit.

Organizing tourism activities. Usually this type requires a very large investment to exploit .


serve tourists

Appendix 3b: SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

ECO TOURISM


A. ABILITY TO ATTRACTION

1. Attractiveness (HD)

Very attractive

Quite attractive

Medium

Least

- Minimal photo style

0 5

03

1 – 2

1

- Diversity of ecosystems

Unique, diverse

Diversity

TB

Least


form




- Types of events that can be organized

At least 5 types

04 types

1- 2

1

2. Safety (AT)

Very safe

Quite safe

Medium

Least

- Ecologically safe

Very good

Very good

Very good

-

- Social evils

Do not have

-

-

-

+ Begging, street vending

Do not have

Not often

Work

Work



through

strong

strong

+ Theft, robbery

Do not have

Do not have

Do not have

Have

- Disease, pollution

Do not have

Do not have

Do not have

Do not have

3. Connectivity (LK)

Very good

Rather

Medium

Least

Number of neighboring TN points

At least 04

2 - 3

1 - 2

0

4. Infrastructure & Technical Facilities

Very good

Rather

Medium

Least

- Synchronization

Very synchronized

Synchronize

Not synchronized

Least

- Convenience

Enough

Enough

Missing some

Least

- Accessibility

Favorable

Favorable

Relative

Hard

B. EXPLOITATION ABILITY

1. Seasonality (TV)

very long

Quite long

Medium

Least

Number of days available

Over 250

180 - 250

100 – 180

Less than 100

2. Sustainability (BV)

High durability

Quite durable

Medium

Least

- TN part was damaged

Protoplasm

1 - 2

1-2, significant

2 - 3

- Recovery ability

Fast

Fast

Slow

very slow

- Viability

Over 100 years

5- 100 years

10 - 50 n

10 years

3. Capacity (CPI)

Very large

Sizable

Medium

Least

Time Containment

over 250 people

150 - 249 people

5- 149 people

Less than 50


Big

Quite big

Medium

Th

(Source : author's synthesis )

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