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Methods of statistical analysis of tourism business performance in Vietnam - 1


COMMITMENT

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Hanoi, date month year 2012

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Author of Thesis

Nguyen Le Anh

Methods of statistical analysis of tourism business performance in Vietnam - 1


INDEX


SIDE COVER

COMMITMENT i

TABLE OF CONTENTS ii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v

LIST OF TABLES, CHARTS, DIAGRAMS

INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER 1: SYSTEM OF STATISTICAL INDICATORS REFLECTING RESULTS OF TOURISM BUSINESS ACTIVITIES 11

1.1. General issues on tourism business performance 11

1.1.1. Concept of tourism and tourism business activities 11

1.1.2. Tourism business performance results 19

1.1.3. The role of tourism business activities in the national economy .. 24

1.2. System of statistical indicators on tourism business performance in Vietnam today 29

1.2.1. Current status of the system of statistical indicators on tourism business performance 29

1.2.2. The need to perfect the system of statistical indicators on tourism business performance 32

1.3. Completing the system of statistical indicators on tourism business performance 33

1.3.1. Principle issues and directions for perfecting the system of statistical indicators on tourism business performance 33

1.3.2. Perfecting the system of statistical indicators on tourism business performance 37

CHAPTER 1 SUMMARY 62

CHAPTER 2: METHODS OF ORGANIZING AND COLLECTING INFORMATION ON TOURISM BUSINESS PERFORMANCE RESULTS IN VIETNAM 64

2.1. Current status of collecting information on tourism business performance in Vietnam 64

2.1.1. Statistical organization at the General Department of Tourism 66

2.1.2. Statistical organization at the General Statistics Office 70

2.1.3. General assessment 71

2.2. Proposing methods for organizing information collection and synthesizing tourism business results in Vietnam 74

2.3. Proposing a plan to investigate and synthesize indicators on domestic tourists from households 77

2.3.1. Determine the purpose, objects, scope, units and contents of the investigation 78

2.3.2. Building an investigation diagram 86

2.3.3. Processing, synthesizing and calculating the generalization of survey results 92

CHAPTER 2 SUMMARY107

CHAPTER 3: APPLYING SOME STATISTICAL METHODS TO ANALYZE THE RESULTS OF VIETNAM'S TOURISM BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN THE PERIOD 1996 - 2010 AND FORECASTS TO 2015 109

3.1. Select statistical methods to analyze and predict tourism business performance 110

3.1.1. Statistical disaggregation methods, statistical tables and graphs 111

3.1.2. Regression and correlation analysis methods 114

3.1.3. Time series analysis method 115

3.1.4. Index method 119

3.1.5. Forecasting method 124

3.2. Current status and orientation of analysis of some indicators reflecting the results of Vietnam's tourism business activities in the period 1995 - 2010 ... 128

3.2.1. Current status and characteristics of data sources reflecting current results of Vietnam's tourism business activities 128

3.2.2. Orientation for analyzing tourism business performance results in the period (1995-2010) 130

3.3. Statistical analysis of indicators of Vietnamese tourists in the period 1995 - 2010 and forecast to 2015 132

3.3.1. Analysis of fluctuations in the number of international tourists 133

3.3.2. Analysis of fluctuations in the number of domestic tourists 151

3.3.3. Statistical analysis of fluctuations in the number of tourist days 155

3.4. Statistical analysis of tourism revenue fluctuations 161

3.4.1. Analysis of characteristics of fluctuations in social revenue from tourism 161

3.4.2. Analysis of trends in social revenue fluctuations from tourism 166

3.5. General assessment of Vietnam tourism business performance in the period 1995 - 2010 and recommendations 169

3.5.1. General assessment 169

3.5.2. Some recommendations on statistics and solutions to improve the performance of Vietnam's tourism business 171

CHAPTER 3 SUMMARY175

CONCLUSION 176

RELATED PUBLISHED WORKS 178

REFERENCES 179

APPENDIX 1 182


LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS


Abbreviation Explanation

GDP Gross Domestic Product

DL Travel

IRTS 2008 Recommendation on International Tourism Statistics 2008 OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

General Department of Tourism

General Statistics Office

TSA:RMF 2008 Tourism Satellite Account 2008; Recommended System of Methodologies; Council of the European Communities, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations, World Tourism Organization

TSA Travel Satellite Account

UNSD United Nations Statistical Office UNWTO World Tourism Organization


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1. Orientation to complete statistical indicators reflecting 36

tourism business results 36

Table 2.1. Methods of collecting and synthesizing results indicators 74

tourism business 74

Table 01-TH. Number of households and number of people in households with population change survey 89

Form 01-DS. List of households with people traveling domestically 90

Table 01-THM. Number of households with people traveling and number of people in households traveling by province, city and region in 1994

Table 02- THM. Number of tourists by province, city and type of tourism in 1996

Table 03-THM. Number of tourist days by province, city, region and type of tourism 98

Table 01-THC: Total number of visitors and proportion of tourists by province, city and region in 100

Table 02-THC. Total number of tourists and average number of tourists per year 102

Table 03-THC. Total number of tourist days by province, city and type of tourism in 104

Table 3.1. Number of tourists in the period 1995 - 2010 132

Table 3.2. Indicators for analyzing changes in international tourists during the period 1995 - 2010 134

Table 3.3. Functional forms reflecting the trend of international visitor fluctuations in the period 1995 - 2010 135

Table 3.4. Number of international tourists by month in the period 2000 - 2010 .137 Table 3.5. Seasonality index by month of international tourist arrivals in the period

period 2000 -2010 139

Table 3.6. Number of international tourists to Vietnam by source

period 2000 – 2010 141

Table 3.7. Structure of the number of international tourists to Vietnam by source of visitors in the period 2000 - 2010 142

Table 3.8. Structure of international tourist numbers by trip purpose in the period 2000 - 2010 145

Table 3.9. Structure of international tourists by means of arrival in the period

2000 – 2010 .........................................................................................................147

Table 3.10. Forecast of international visitors in the period 2011 - 2015 149

Table 3.11. Forecast of international visitor numbers by month for the period

2011 - 2015...................................................................................................150

Table 3.12. Indicators for analyzing fluctuations in the number of domestic tourists

period 1995 – 2010 152

Table 3.13. Functional forms reflecting the trend of fluctuations in the number of domestic visitors in the period 1995 - 2010 153

Table 3.14. Forecast of domestic tourist arrivals in the period 2011 - 2015 ..154 Table 3.15. Number of tourist days in the period 2001 - 2010 155

Table 3.16. Number of international tourist days in the period 2001 - 2010 156

Table 3.17. Number of domestic tourist days in the period 2001 - 2010 159

Table 3.18. Social revenue from tourism in the period 2000 - 2010 163

Table 3.19. Social revenue from tourism in the period 2000 - 2010 164

Table 3.20. Social revenue from tourism in the period 2000 - 2010 165

Table 3.21. Functional forms reflecting the trend of fluctuations in social revenue from tourism at actual prices in the period 2000 - 2010 166

Table 3.22. Functional forms reflecting the trend of fluctuations in social revenue from tourism at actual prices in the period 2000 - 2010 167

Table 3.23. Forecast of social revenue from tourism in the period 2011 - 2015 168


GRAPH


Chart 3.1. Trends in international tourist arrivals during the period 1995 - 2010 ..136 Chart 3.2 Structure of international visitor numbers by visitor source 143

period 2000 - 2010 143

Chart 3.3. Structure of international visitors by trip purpose 146

period 2000 - 2010 146

Chart 3.4. Structure of international arrivals by means of transport 148

period 2000 – 2010 148

Chart 3.5. Trend of fluctuation in number of domestic tourists 154

period 1995 - 2010 154

Graph 3.6. Trend of social revenue fluctuations from tourism at actual prices 167

period 2000 - 2010 167

Chart 3.7 Trends in social revenue fluctuations from tourism at comparable prices 168

period 2000 - 2010 168


DIAGRAM


Diagram 1.1. Subsystem 1 - Indicators reflecting the scale of tourism business performance results 38

Diagram 1.2. Subsystem 2 - Indicators reflecting the structure of results 53

Diagram 1.3. Subsystem 3 - Indicators reflecting the relationship between the 60

tourism business performance index 60

Figure 2.1. Relationship between survey forms and summary tables 106

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