Methods Used in Financial Analysis


2.2 1 3 Methods used in financial analysis


To evaluate whether the project is worth investing in, the author uses the discounted cash flow method to calculate the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) method and the benefit-cost ratio (B/C) method, considers the debt service safety ratio (DSCR) and the payback period (PP) method.

Specifically, the calculation method is as follows:


NPV: Present value of cash flows after deducting investment costs.


n

B i C i


[11] and [12]

i 0 (1 r ) i


B i : Project benefits C i : Project costs r: Discount rate.

Evaluation criteria: Project is feasible when NPV ≥ 0


NPV is a standard for evaluating the cash flow generated at the absolute level of the project and the enterprise. NPV has taken into account the opportunity cost of the investor's capital. NPV is calculated for each subject because each subject has a different discount rate. Although NPV does not care about the scale and payback period, this is the decisive criterion for choosing the analysis options.

IRR: Discount rate for NPV= 0.


n

B i C i 0

i 0 (1 r ) i


B i : Project benefits C i : Project costs

Evaluation criteria: Project is feasible when IRR ≥ MARR


IRR is a measure to compare with the investor's minimum required rate of return (MARR), but MARR is a factor that fluctuates over time and depends on the market, so


For a long-term project like Binh Hoa, IRR is used as a supporting method to confirm the feasibility or non-feasibility of the project.

Benefit/cost ratio (B/C) [12]


B/C = Present value of total benefits / Present value of total costs Evaluation criteria: Project is feasible when B/C > 1

The B/C method is quite straightforward but depends on the discount rate to calculate the present value (NPV) of the cash flows.

Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR).


DSCR at time i = Total 6 0 cash used to pay debt at time i / Total debt payable at time i

Evaluation criteria: DSCR 1 (for investors)

DSCR 1.2 (for banks)


DSCR shows the ability to raise cash to pay off debt at a given point in time, but only within the scope of the project and does not account for the ability to raise cash from other projects. In reality, a business can raise cash from many different sources, from different projects to pay off debt.

Payback Period (PP)


PP = (Invested Capital)/(Annual Net Income) = (year, month)


Evaluation criteria: PP < 5 years, 6 months (Because MARR = 18%, PP = 1/18*100% = 5.6).


PP has the advantage of being simple to calculate and easy to convince shareholders, but PP ignores investments that arise after the payback period. PP also does not care about the present value of cash flows.

2.3 1 4 Methods used in economic analysis


Although it is not possible to quantify all externalities or calculate the exact cost benefits of the project to the economy, when considering the project from the perspective of the economy in general, the thesis will use the CFi price conversion method by adjusting the taxes and subsidies in the financial appraisal results to convert to


economic price, then calculate NPV, IRR, B/C indexes and draw conclusions about the economic feasibility of the project.


In summary, the Binh Hoa project will be appraised by the criteria of NPV, IRR, B/C, DSCR, PP for financial and economic analysis from the perspective of the total investor, the investor, the perspective of the economy in general and the perspective of the budget, thereby drawing conclusions about the feasibility or non-feasibility of the project.


Chapter 3. 2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION


Chapter 3 provides an overview and highlights some of the project's features, and provides a plan for implementing the project in terms of design, architecture, and construction. This chapter also provides initial parameters at a general level to serve the purpose of financial and economic analysis of the project.


3.1 1 5 Project Introduction

4

Binh Hoa 3 Electronics Joint Stock Company (VBH) was converted from Binh Hoa Electronics One Member Co., Ltd. under Decision No. 2554/QD-TCCB dated August 8, 2005 of the Minister of Industry (now the Ministry of Industry and Trade) and was leased a land area of ​​24,418.5m2 by the State , the purpose of using the land is to build an office, warehouse and electronic equipment manufacturing workshop, the land lease period lasts until the end of 2020. However, VBH is subject to the relocation of its production activities according to the policy of relocating industrial production facilities out of the inner city area, the land that VBH is leasing will be reclaimed by the State.


The land that VBH is leasing has a very advantageous geographical location because it is located in the inner city area, has good infrastructure and convenient transportation, 2 frontages are No Trang Long Street and Chu Van An Street, near District 1 and 6km from Tan Son Nhat International Airport, less than 4km from Mien Dong Bus Station. Currently, the land has electricity, water supply and drainage system. The remaining assets on the land are not large, including rows of corrugated iron roof houses, factories, iron frame warehouses, roads, internal yards, according to the valuation in 2005 was 3.8 billion VND, because the company is using semi-permanent structures.

“Every inch of land is worth an inch of gold”, VBH wishes to continue using the land. According to the policy of the program to relocate polluting enterprises in the inner city to concentrate in industrial parks, export processing zones and surrounding areas, the necessary conditions for VBH to continue being a legal entity with land use rights are (i) VBH has a feasible project to convert the land use purpose in accordance with the district's planning approved before 2012 (ii) VBH needs to ensure the area for educational activities is at least 6,500 m2 on the land according to the opinion of the People's Committee of Binh Thanh District in Document No. 49/UBND-QLDT dated January 13, 2009 [14]. When VBH meets the above two conditions, the state will allow VBH to buy back the land according to


4 State capital representatives 51% [13]


The price is set by the state, not through bidding. Therefore, VBH calculated the construction plan of Binh Hoa project in order to benefit from the state's preferential land conversion policy. At present (June 2010), VBH and TECCO are still assessing the financial situation to carry out the project investment procedures.

3.2 1 6 Project characteristics

The entire area of ​​24,418.5m2 is reserved for the project, including 6,500m2 of land for educational activities. The remaining land area will be used for the construction of apartments, offices for rent, swimming pools, schools and green parks. Currently, this is a land with semi-permanent architectural works and there is still a lot of vacant land.

When completed, the apartment building will connect to two main roads, No Trang Long Street and Chu Van An Street. The apartment building will be located in a planning area with quite favorable infrastructure, because this is the center of Binh Thanh District, close to Tan Son Nhat Airport, Mien Dong Bus Station and District 1 center.

After studying legal documents to have a basis for project implementation, VBH hired Dothi.

SJC established the architecture, the basic design is summarized in Table 3.1 and detailed in Appendix 3.

Table 3.1 Basic design


STT

PROJECT

ACREAGE

CONSTRUCTION (m 2 )

NUMBER OF FLOORS

ACREAGE

CONSTRUCTION FLOOR (m 2 )

01

Area A, Block 1

995

15

14925


block 2

1400

20

28000


block 3

600

18

10800

02

Area B, Block 1

1487

15

22305


block 2

647

20

12940

03

Area C, Block 1

524

15

7860


block 2

1097

20

21940

04

Pool

863


843

05

School

1,100.0

2

2200

06

Basement



10,209.12

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Methods Used in Financial Analysis

(Source: Author's calculation according to the 2009 Dothi SJC Planning Architecture 204 No Trang Long)


From the above design, we can calculate the apartment floor area and land use coefficient. Table 3.2 will present this calculation in detail.


Table 3.2 Classification of land use purposes in the project


STT

TYPE OF LAND USE

(1)

CONSTRUCTION AREA (m 2 ) (2)

FLOOR AREA (m 2 ) (3)

DENSITY

CONSTRUCTION (%) (4) = (2)/S t

LAND USE FACTOR

(5) = (3)/S t

Total land area: S t = 24,418.5 m 2 .

01

Land for apartment building

7593

119613

31.1


02

Land for school construction

1100

2200

4.5



Total

8693

121813

35.62

5

(Source: Author's calculation according to the 2009 Dothi SJC Planning Architecture 204 No Trang Long)


In addition to the construction of the project items including 7 blocks of houses, swimming pool, school and basement, the project also has to build internal roads, green parks and sports fields. TECCO believes that the convenient and harmonious traffic arrangement with the architecture, while ensuring urban planning standards will increase the value of apartments for rent as well as apartments for sale.

3.3 1 7 Architectural solutions and construction standards


The architectural solution proposed by Dothi JSC for the entire project is as follows:


- Regarding traffic, the internal alley has a right of way of 8m, the crossroad is 12m, there is a small island to separate local traffic in the project. The internal road axis has a right of way of 21m, separate 2-way traffic, separated by a row of trees in the middle of the road axis. The internal traffic system is connected to the main road axis and alleys.

- Regarding the blocks, the project will build 7 blocks, details on the construction area and number of floors are presented in Table 3.1. The basements are designed to be connected to increase the parking area, creating comfort for residents and business activities, and at the same time, future management will also be more convenient. There are many options for investors to decide to choose apartment blocks for living separately from the blocks for business rental purposes, or all blocks will reserve 2 to 3 floors for long-term rental and reserve the remaining apartments for sale.


- Regarding parks, sports grounds, and kindergartens, they are designed right next to the apartment complex and green parks and on the road axis with large and tall trees. The construction of parks, sports grounds, and kindergartens is carried out at the end, when the rough construction blocks are completed.

The construction solution that TECCO offers for the whole is as follows:


The entire project will be built according to Vietnamese construction standards. Specifically:

- TCVN 5574 – 1991: Design standards - Reinforced concrete structures.

- TCVN 2737 – 1995: Design standards - Loads and impacts.

- TCXD 40 – 1987: Construction structure of foundation.

- TCXD 4198 – 1997: Monolithic concrete design - High-rise buildings.

- TCXD 205 – 1998: Design standards - Pile foundation.

- TCXD 206 – 1998: Design standards - Bored piles.

- The roof structure is poured with monolithic concrete similar to the floors of each floor.

- Domestic electricity supply standards: 20 TCN 25 – 91 and 27 – 91.

- Power supply standards for public lighting: 20 TCN 27 – 91.

- Lightning protection standards: TCXD 46 – 1984.

- Standard TCVN 6160 - 1996 on fire prevention and fighting in high-rise buildings.

- TCVN 5738 – 1993 standard on fire alarm system – technical requirements.

- On each high-rise building, build a water tank with a capacity of 100m3 , both to store domestic water and to store water for fire fighting in case of an incident.

3.4 1 8 Calculation data related to project analysis content


5

The project will build 7 high-rise buildings, including 3 15-storey blocks, 3 20-storey blocks and 1 18-storey block and reserve at least 2 floors for office rental, commercial service area, conference hall, the remaining floors are designed as apartments, each apartment area is from 60 to 106m2 , these apartments are sold at market price during the implementation and completion of the project, because the apartments

Small-sized households have a very high demand for buying 4. The basement is designed to be connected to increase the usable area, the basement can be rented and self-managed. However, because the investor must establish a building management board after completing the project to help with the operation, maintenance, and service to residents and customers in the best way, the basement should be handed over to the management board.


5 http://vietbao.vn/The-gioi-giai-tri/Thieu-can-ho-dien-tich-nho/50789802/411/ and other market comments (accessed June 24, 2010) [15]


Marketing and advertising costs are concentrated during the project implementation so that customers can register to buy apartments during the construction period, because then the revenue from customers will be further financed for project implementation, thereby reducing debt. After the project is completed, unsold apartments will be put on the real estate trading floor to avoid marketing and advertising costs, a rather expensive expense. The project does not include infrastructure investment from the state. The investor must build internal roads, green parks, and sports fields in the project area.

Project cost calculation:


6

- The project is calculated based on the investment capital for construction of a 5- year house in 2009, which includes the necessary costs to build per 1m2 .Construction floor. The equipment cost includes the costs of purchasing and installing elevators and operating equipment, water pumps and fire protection systems.

- Construction costs of other projects such as swimming pools and schools are still calculated based on the investment rate.

- The cost of building internal roads, trees, and sports fields is specifically calculated by TECCO.

7

Because the project was appraised on October 1, 2010, and the Ministry of Construction had only announced the construction investment capital for 2009, the cost must be calculated based on the fluctuation of construction prices in the first, second and third quarters of 2010 compared to the whole year of 2009. 6 However, because the Ministry of Construction has not announced the construction price index for the first, second and third quarters of 2010, the topic considers the price fluctuation of the group of construction materials 3 in the basket of goods that make up the consumer price index (CPI) to calculate and predict construction prices in October 2010.

Construction price index as announced by the Ministry of Construction and consumer price index of construction materials group as announced by the General Statistics Office are in Table 3.3.


6 See the construction investment capital rate in 2009, announced according to Decision 411/QD-BXD dated March 31, 2010 of the Ministry of Construction [16]

7 Construction price index in 2009, announced according to Decision 410/QD-BXD dated March 31, 2010 of the Ministry of Construction [17]

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