Methods for Assessing Climate Change Trends

Thus, the field survey was conducted in two phases. The first phase (area survey) mainly collected documents from state management agencies on the status of the route, major damage phenomena on the route, solutions that have been applied to handle damage on the route and a preliminary survey of the entire route to preliminarily identify vulnerable locations. The second phase (spot survey) will specifically survey the locations identified in the previous step and considered to be at high risk of being affected by climate change.

5.2.3. Method of assessing the trend of climate change factors

Usually, the change trend of a time series is assessed through a linear regression equation expressing the dependence of the considered factor or phenomenon ( X ) on time ( t ): X = a0 + a1t , in which a0 is the intercept and a1 is the slope. In climate change research, the adjacent components of the time series are often one year apart, so the unit of t is year. The sign of the slope coefficient a1 indicates whether the series has an increasing ( a1>0 ) or decreasing ( a1<0 ) trend. To have a definite conclusion about the trend of the series, it is necessary to test the leakage of the slope coefficient a1 [Pham Van Cu et al., 2011]. For this thesis, the statistical data series in the last 20 years of 10 hydrometeorological stations in the Central region is used to determine the change trend of temperature, rainfall, and water level in the areas through which the route passes.

5.2.4. Method of assessing the level of change in climate factors

The degree of change is the change is strong or weak, much or little, increasing or decreasing, the volatility of the change. The degree of change can be assessed through the rate of increase, decrease over each period, the volatility over each period or the increasing or decreasing trend over each period, the change in the amplitude of oscillation, or the increase or decrease of random oscillations. The degree of linear change can be determined by the slope coefficient of the trend equation. The larger the absolute value of the slope coefficient a1 of the trend equation, the larger the degree of change and vice versa [Pham Van Cu et al., 2011].

5.2.5. Method of assessing the nature of climate change

Variability can be considered from different angles. If we are interested in the repetition of a phenomenon or the determination value of a factor, then the investigation of variability is to consider the periodic oscillation of the series. If we are interested in the variability of a factor or phenomenon, then variability is the variation of the standard deviation, amplitude, or coefficient of variation.

The change in absolute extreme values ​​in each period can be considered as a manifestation of the level and nature of change. To a certain extent, these values ​​reflect the impact of global change on the change of local and regional climate. For example, for temperature, if the general trend of average temperature is increasing, but the increase in minimum temperature is greater than the increase in maximum temperature, then the average amplitude of temperature will decrease. However, there may still be a situation in the minimum temperature data series, the absolute minimum value of the later periods is smaller than the previous periods. Thus, the variability of minimum temperature will increase over time [Pham Van Cu et al., 2011].

6. Structure of the thesis

The thesis consists of the following main parts:

Introduction: Urgency of the topic, objectives, objects, scope and significance of the topic

Chapter 1: Theoretical basis and Overview

Chapter 2: Overview of the characteristics of the research area Chapter 3: Research results and discussion

Conclusion and recommendations

1.1. Theoretical basis

CHAPTER 1

THEORETICAL BASIS AND OVERVIEW

1.1.1 Concepts of climate change

- Climate change

In recent years, many places in the world have suffered from many dangerous natural disasters such as big storms, intense heat, floods, droughts and harsh climates causing great damage to human life and property. In particular, on November 13, 2013, WMO published a statistical report on extreme weather events in 2013, concluding that this year was the hottest year since 1850; the average sea level rise was 3.2mm per year, twice as high as in 1993.

Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods [UNFCCC, 1992].

Climate change is a change in the state of the climate system, identifiable by changes in the mean and variability of its properties, and persisting for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural processes within the climate system or to persistent human impacts, in particular increased greenhouse gas emissions that alter the composition of the atmosphere [IPCC, 2007].

Climate change is also defined as a change in the state of the climate compared to the average or variability of the climate that persists over a long period of time, usually several decades or longer (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2008).

- Climate Change Scenario

Climate change scenarios are also defined as “scientifically based and reliable assumptions about the future development of the relationships between economy, society, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea level rise” (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2008).

- Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the extent to which climate change can cause harm or disadvantage to a system; vulnerability depends not only on the sensitivity of the system but also on the ability of the community to adapt to new climatic conditions. This definition includes the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience of the system to withstand the hazards caused by the effects of climate change [IPCC, 1996].

- Responding to climate change

Climate change response is human activities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Thus, climate change response consists of two main components: climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation.

Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of natural or economic systems.

- Social adaptation to changing circumstances or environments, aiming to reduce vulnerability to actual or potential climate change and fluctuations and to take advantage of the opportunities it presents.

Climate change mitigation is activities aimed at reducing the level or intensity of GHG emissions.

- Capacity building

Capacity building in the context of climate change is the process of developing technological skills and institutional capacities in developing countries and transition economies to enable them to participate in all areas of adaptation, mitigation and research on climate change to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol (KP) [Truong Quang Hoc, 2011].

1.1.2 Systemic and interdisciplinary nature of research and implementation on climate change

Climate change, first of all global warming, is caused by natural processes and human impact. In the past, climate change was caused by natural causes. Currently, climate change is caused by human activities.

According to the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report, “there is no doubt that the climate system is warming,” CO 2 levels by the end of the 21st century could exceed what has occurred on our planet over the past tens of millions of years [IPCC, 2007].

Climate change impacts all environmental components including the natural environment, social environment and human health on a global scale. However, the level of impact of climate change is different: severe in high latitudes and less in other regions, will be greater in tropical countries, especially rapidly industrializing countries in Asia. Among them, the poor, those who have contributed least to climate change, suffer the earliest and most severe damage to human development caused by climate change (Crutzen, 2005).

According to the IPCC's summary report " Climate Change 2001 ", climate change mitigation strategies as well as adaptation strategies are both components of climate change response policies. Therefore, research to assess the impacts of climate change and vulnerability in order to have timely response solutions is very necessary. To adapt to climate change, it is necessary to first determine how the impacts of climate change will affect each specific subject in each specific locality. The more accurately the causes and subjects are determined, the more effective the response to climate change (to adapt to and mitigate climate change).

Climate change, its impacts and responses are a complex process and are divided into 7 consecutive phases including: i) Phase 1: Socio-economic activities and GHG emissions; Phase 2: Carbon cycle and GHG concentrations in the atmosphere; Phase 3: Global warming/climate change; Phase 4: Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and society; Phase 5: Adaptation to climate change; Phase 6: Mitigation of climate change; and Phase 7: Changes in social systems and lifestyles [IPCC, 2007, 2011].

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• Mobile Phone Usage in Hanoi Inner City Area zt2i3t4l5ee zt2a3gsconsumer,consumption,consumer behavior,marketing,mobile marketing zt2a3ge zc2o3n4t5e6n7ts - Test the relationship between demographic variables and consumer behavior for Mobile Marketing activities The analysis method used is the Chi-square test (χ2), with statistical hypotheses H0 and H1 and significance level α = 0.05. In case the P index (p-value) or Sig. index in SPSS has a value less than or equal to the significance level α, the hypothesis H0 is rejected and vice versa. With this testing procedure, the study can evaluate the difference in behavioral trends between demographic groups. CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH RESULTS During two months, 1,100 survey questionnaires were distributed to mobile phone users in the inner city of Hanoi using various methods such as direct interviews, sending via email or using questionnaires designed on the Internet. At the end of the survey, after checking and eliminating erroneous questionnaires, the study collected 858 complete questionnaires, equivalent to a rate of about 78%. In addition, the research subjects of the thesis are only people who are using mobile phones, so people who do not use mobile phones are not within the scope of the thesis, therefore, the questionnaires with the option of not using mobile phones were excluded from the scope of analysis. The number of suitable survey questionnaires included in the statistical analysis was 835. 4.1 Demographic characteristics of the sample The structure of the survey sample is divided and statistically analyzed according to criteria such as gender, age, occupation, education level and personal income. (Detailed statistical table in Appendix 6) - Gender structure: Of the 835 completed questionnaires, 49.8% of respondents were male, equivalent to 416 people, and 50.2% were female, equivalent to 419 people. The survey results of the study are completely consistent with the gender ratio in the population structure of Vietnam in general and Hanoi in particular (Male/Female: 49/51). - Age structure: 36.6% of respondents are <23 years old, equivalent to 306 people. People from 23-34 years old accounting for the highest proportion: 44.8% equivalent to 374 people, people aged 35-45 and >45 are 70 and 85 people equivalent to 8.4% and 10.2% respectively. Looking at the results of this survey, we can see that the young people - youth account for a large proportion of the total number of people participating in the survey. Meanwhile, the middle-aged people including two age groups of 35 - 45 and >45 have a low rate of participation in the survey. This is completely consistent with the reality when Mobile Marketing is identified as a Marketing service aimed at young people (people under 35 years old). - Structure by educational level: among 835 valid responses, 541 respondents had university degrees, accounting for the highest proportion of ~ 75%, 102 had secondary school degrees, ~ 13.1%, and 93 had post-graduate degrees, ~ 11.9%. - Occupational structure: office workers and civil servants are the group with the highest rate of participation with 39.4%, followed by students with 36.6%. Self-employed people account for 12%, retired housewives are 7.8% and other occupational groups account for 4.2%. The survey results show that the student group has the same rate as the group aged <23 at 36.6%. This shows the accuracy of the survey data. In addition, the survey results distributed by occupational criteria have a rate almost similar to the sample division rate in chapter 3. Therefore, it can be concluded that the survey data is suitable for use in analysis activities. - Income structure: the group with income from 3 to 5 million has the highest rate with 39% of the total number of respondents. This is consistent with the income structure of Hanoi people and corresponds to the average income of the group of civil servants and office workers. Those People with no income account for 23%, income under 3 million VND accounts for 13% and income over 5 million VND accounts for 25%. 4.2 Mobile phone usage in Hanoi inner city area According to the survey results, most respondents said they had used the phone for more than 1 year, specifically: 68.4% used mobile phones from 4 to 10 years, 23.2% used from 1 to 3 years, 7.8% used for more than 10 years. Those who used mobile phones for less than 1 year accounted for only a very small proportion of ~ 0.6%. (Table 4.1) Table 4.1: Time spent using mobile phones Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Alid <1 year 5 .6 .6 .6 1-3 years 194 23.2 23.2 23.8 4-10 years 571 68.4 68.4 92.2 >10 years 65 7.8 7.8 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 The survey indexes on the time of using mobile phones of consumers in the inner city of Hanoi are very impressive for a developing country like Vietnam and also prove that Vietnamese consumers have a lot of experience using this high-tech device. Moreover, with the majority of consumers surveyed having a relatively long time of use (4-10 years), it partly proves that mobile phones have become an important and essential item in people's daily lives. When asked about the mobile phone network they are using, 31% of respondents said they are using the network of Vietel company, 29% use the network of of Mobifone company, 27% use Vinaphone company's network and 13% use networks of other providers such as E-VN telecom, S-fone, Beeline, Vietnammobile. (Figure 4.1). Figure 4.1: Mobile phone network in use Compared with the announced market share of mobile telecommunications service providers in Vietnam (Vietel: 36%, Mobifone: 29%, Vinaphone: 28%, the remaining networks: 7%), we see that the survey results do not have many differences. However, the statistics show that there is a difference in the market share of other networks because the Hanoi market is one of the two main markets of small networks, so their market share in this area will certainly be higher than that of the whole country. According to a report by NielsenMobile (2009) [8], the number of prepaid mobile phone subscribers in Hanoi accounts for 95% of the total number of subscribers, however, the results of this survey show that the percentage of prepaid subscribers has decreased by more than 20%, only at 70.8%. On the contrary, the number of postpaid subscribers tends to increase from 5% in 2009 to 19.2%. Those who are simultaneously using both types of subscriptions account for 10%. (Table 4.2). Table 4.2: Types of mobile phone subscribers Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Valid Prepay 591 70.8 70.8 70.8 Pay later 160 19.2 19.2 89.9 Both of the above 84 10.1 10.1 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 The above figures show the change in the psychology and consumption habits of Vietnamese consumers towards mobile telecommunications services, when the use of prepaid subscriptions and junk SIMs is replaced by the use of two types of subscriptions for different purposes and needs or switching to postpaid subscriptions to enjoy better customer care services. In addition, the majority of respondents have an average spending level for mobile phone services from 100 to 300 thousand VND (406 ~ 48.6% of total respondents). The high spending level (> 500 thousand VND) is the spending level with the lowest number of people with only 8.4%, on the contrary, the low spending level (under 100 thousand VND) accounts for the second highest proportion among the groups of respondents with 25.4%. People with low spending levels mainly fall into the group of students and retirees/housewives - those who have little need to use or mainly use promotional SIM cards. (Table 4.3). Table 4.3: Spending on mobile phone charges Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Valid <100,000 212 25.4 25.4 25.4 100-300,000 406 48.6 48.6 74.0 300,000-500,000 147 17.6 17.6 91.6 >500,000 70 8.4 8.4 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 The statistics in Table 4.3 are similar to the percentages in the NielsenMobile survey results (2009) with 73% of mobile phone users having medium spending levels and only 13% having high spending levels. The survey results also showed that up to 31% ~ nearly one-third of respondents said they sent more than 10 SMS messages/day, meaning that on average they sent 1 SMS message for every working hour. Those with an average SMS message volume (from 3 to 10 messages/day) accounted for 51.1% and those with a low SMS message volume (less than 3 messages/day) accounted for 17%. (Table 4.4) Table 4.4: Number of SMS messages sent per day Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Valid <3 news 142 17.0 17.0 17.0 3-10 news 427 51.1 51.1 68.1 >10 news 266 31.9 31.9 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 Similar to sending messages, those with an average message receiving rate (from 3-10 messages/day) accounted for the highest percentage of ~ 55%, followed by those with a high number of messages (over 10 messages/day) ~ 24% and those with a low number of messages received daily (under 3 messages/day) remained at the bottom with 21%. (Table 4.5) Table 4.5: Number of SMS messages received per day Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Valid <3 news 175 21.0 21.0 21.0 3-10 news 436 55.0 55.0 76.0 >10 news 197 24.0 24.0 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 When comparing the data of the two result tables 4.4 and 4.5, we can see the reasonableness between the ratio of the number of messages sent and the number of messages received daily by the interview participants. 4.3 Current status of SMS advertising and Mobile Marketing According to the interview results, in the 3 months from the time of the survey and before, 94% of respondents, equivalent to 785 people, said they received advertising messages, while only a very small percentage of 6% (only 50 people) did not receive advertising messages (Table 4.6). Table 4.6: Percentage of people receiving advertising messages in the last 3 months Frequency Ratio (%) Valid Percentage Cumulative Percentage Valid Have 785 94.0 94.0 94.0 Are not 50 6.0 6.0 100.0 Total 835 100.0 100.0 The results of Table 4.6 show that consumers in the inner city of Hanoi are very familiar with advertising messages. This result is also the basis for assessing the knowledge, experience and understanding of the respondents in the interview. This is also one of the important factors determining the accuracy of the survey results. In addition, most respondents said they had received promotional messages, but only 24% of them had ever taken the action of registering to receive promotional messages, while 76% of the remaining respondents did not register to receive promotional messages but still received promotional messages every day. This is the first sign indicating the weaknesses and shortcomings of lax management of this activity in Vietnam. 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• Assessing vulnerability and proposing solutions to enhance resilience to climate change in Lao Cai city, Lao Cai province - 11
• Study on assessing the impact of climate change on national highways in the Central region - 18
• Study on assessing the impact of climate change on national highways in the Central region - 2
• Assessing the impact of climate change on livelihood security of ethnic minority communities in Dak Lak - 13

Figure 1.1. Diagram of the interaction of climate change and the components of the human-ecosystem (A); and Framework of climate change issues (B)

Source: IPCC, 2007

Therefore, research and development on climate change must be systematic and interdisciplinary, aiming at three main goals: First, assessing climate change in terms of its nature, causes and physical mechanisms; Second, assessing the impacts of climate change, vulnerability to climate change and proposing adaptation solutions; Third, proposing an action plan to mitigate climate change. These three tasks are a logical process that is not simultaneous and must be carried out sequentially.

At the scale of the transport sector, climate change and sea level rise have had negative impacts on many areas of nature, economy, society, and environment, not only within the scope of routes but also affecting the whole region. This thesis aims to reveal how the climate has changed and will change, thereby assessing the impact of climate change as a basis for proposing plans to adapt to climate change and mitigate climate change, contributing to the construction of national highways towards the goal of sustainable development.

1.2. Document overview

1.2.1. World research

Climate change has a relatively long history of research, dating back to the first decades of the 18th century: in 1824, French physicist Joseph Fourier described the phenomenon of

“greenhouse effect” phenomenon; in 1896, Swedish chemist Svante Arhenius concluded that the burning of fossil fuels would increase the greenhouse effect and cause global warming [Truong Quang Hoc – editor, 2011].

Since 1990, there have been many studies in the world on the impacts of climate change on all aspects of nature and society. For the road transport sector, some studies on the impacts of climate change include:

Galbraith, Price and Shackman (2005) in their phase 2 study of Scotland on extreme weather events that have occurred and their inclusion in the design and operation of the road network “ Scottish road network climate change study” studied the impacts of climate change with scenarios for 2020, 2050, 2080 for transport in Scotland, proposing solutions for design, operation and adaptation policies.

Willson (2009) in his work “ The effect of Climate change on 3 counties alliance partnership (3CAP) highway network policies and standards ” studied and assessed the impact of climate change and proposed adaptation policies and standards for the highway network of three cities in the UK (Derby, Leicester, Nottingham).

The UK Transport Research Council (2011) in the work “ Adapting transportation to the impacts of climate change ” has studied an overview of the adaptation of the transport sector to the impacts of climate change in the UK. The document provides typical examples of risks and vulnerabilities, and issues faced by state management agencies in planning transport and urban areas in the face of climate change impacts.

Maunsell (2008) with the report “ Impact of climate change on Australia's road and bridge infrastructure ”: proposed 7 climate change scenarios and their impacts on Australia's road and bridge infrastructure system. The report also pointed out opportunities and solutions to adapt to climate change.

Kinsella and McGuire (2008) in their work “ Climate change uncertainty and the state highway network: A moving target ” pointed out the potential impacts of climate change on planning, construction and maintenance of the New York highway network.

Zealand; proposes three adaptation solutions through screening for routes: a do-nothing solution, a solution to increase the resilience of works (bridges, culverts) for future climate change, and a solution to build new transport works that consider climate change factors up to 2080.

The US Transportation Research Board (2008) in the work " Potential impacts of climate change on US Transportation " studied the potential impacts of climate change on the US transportation industry; adaptation solutions include solutions to enhance the capacity to respond to extreme weather events; solutions to early warning using technology and monitoring programs; solutions to share experiences; solutions to change designs; solutions on transportation and land use planning; solutions to buy insurance; solutions on policies and new modes of transportation.

The American Transportation Association (2008) in its work “ Primer on transportation and climate change ” introduced knowledge about climate change, climate change policies, trends in GHG emissions from transportation, solutions to reduce GHG emissions from transportation activities and other issues that need to be studied to adapt to climate change.

Hamlet (2012) in his work “ Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest ” studied extreme weather phenomena; presented historical statistics and financial losses caused by extreme weather phenomena to demonstrate and affirm the need to study the impact of climate change on transportation and transportation infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest region.

Abhas, Bloch and Lamond in their work “Cities and Flooding, A guide to integrated urban flood risk management for the 21st century” provided guidance on Urban Flood Risk Management in the 21st century including the following contents: Concept of dangerous floods, concept of flood impacts, integration of risk management with structural solutions, integration of risk management with non-structural solutions, evaluation of solution options and finally implementation of integrated flood risk management...

All research and development (R&D) on a global scale has been summarized in 5 IPCC reports: