Impact of Socio-Economics and Climate Change on Tourism Resources

1.2.4. Impact of socio-economic and climate change on tourism resources

Socio-economic activities in general and tourism activities in particular have impacts on natural resources and the environment. These impacts can be positive or negative; especially when there are no reasonable orientations and solutions on the organization, management, use and protection of environmental resources in a reasonable and effective manner. Socio-economic activities are important factors determining tourism development. The ability to invest in developing tourism infrastructure, diversifying tourism products, investing in developing tourism human resources, and preserving natural resources and cultural resources depends on the scale and economic growth rate of the country, region and locality. Economic development creates conditions for investment in exploiting tourism resources.

Tourism is an economic sector that is sensitive to climate conditions, so fluctuations and trends in climate change, weather (increased temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, frequency of special weather phenomena, etc.) and the consequences of climate change causing sea level rise will strongly impact tourism. Climate change can affect the stability and sustainability of other natural components as well as man-made structures. Natural disasters such as heavy rains, floods, storms, tornadoes or hot dry westerly winds can destroy other natural components as well as tourism landscapes or man-made structures, even in a very short time. In addition, some weather factors also regularly and strongly affect the degradation of structures, especially ancient architectural structures. The general rule is that the higher the humidity, temperature and temperature amplitude, the greater the rate of destruction. The impact of climate change on tourism is manifested through the following aspects: direct impact on climate conditions and resources (changing the length and quality of the tourist season); impact on tourism resources and environment (changing water sources, reducing or losing biodiversity, reducing the aesthetics of the landscape, destroying relics, cultural works, coastal erosion, increasing epidemics ...); impact on infrastructure, infrastructure (destruction, flooding ...). According to the World Bank's assessment, Vietnam is among the 5 countries most heavily affected by climate change, especially coastal provinces. The Mekong Delta of the South is one of the regions predicted to be strongly affected by climate change. Therefore, tourism in the Mekong Delta is facing certain difficulties and challenges that require solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. For example, under the high emission climate change scenario (RCP8.5 scenario) [9], by the mid-21st century,

The number of hot days increased nationwide with an increase of 30†40 days compared to the baseline period (1986-2005) and the fastest increase was in the South. The temperature at the end of the 21st century increased to 3.7 0 C. At the same time, the largest daily rainfall tended to increase throughout Vietnam with a common increase of 10 to 70%, the largest increase was also in the South.

1.3. Research viewpoints and methods

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1.3.1. Research perspective

1.3.1.1. System perspective

The system perspective considers all phenomena to have dialectical relationships, interactions and dependencies. Each system is made up of smaller systems but at the same time is a small unit level of a larger system. Therefore, each system has two relationships, an internal relationship and an external relationship. No phenomenon exists independently. All phenomena interact and influence each other. In fact, one phenomenon impacts another phenomenon, and they continue to interact like that and vice versa. Similarly, the components in an ecosystem not only interact with each other but are also influenced by external factors (surrounding environment, people). The system perspective is applied throughout the research process, from preparation to analysis, evaluation and providing development orientations and solutions. The South has a relationship as a dynamic economic region in the South, connecting with the whole country, and has intra-regional connections. Moreover, the territory is very large, including the mainland and coastal islands. These relationships are always closely linked together to form a unified and complete entity.

1.3.1.2. General perspective

The synthetic viewpoint is a traditional viewpoint when studying geography, expressed in both content and research methods. In studying DLTN, it is necessary to study objects in the synthesis of relationships between objects with each other, it is impossible to separate the research objects from the relationships with other objects. The application of the synthetic viewpoint in the thesis is thoroughly implemented in the selection of methods (synthetic assessment methods) and assessment content (synthetic analysis of conditions for tourism development; selection of criteria, indicators and assessment weights based on the synthesis analysis of natural and human factors; relationships

relationship in resource exploitation with other economic sectors to exploit reasonably towards environmental protection).

1.3.1.3. Historical perspective - perspective

The historical perspective holds that it is necessary to consider and evaluate things and phenomena in the process of change and development. Each territory, component, and natural territorial synthesis has a process of arising, developing, and changing over time. In the thesis, the historical perspective is applied in: Collecting statistical data and territorial research documents. Analyzing data of each object (DL, climate, socio-economics, etc.) are all associated with certain development stages to see changes over time; determining the synthesis of natural resources, studying the characteristics of resource types based on the origin, driving force and development trend. The thesis also conducts research on many issues with data from the present, evaluating the future to 2020, vision 2030, requiring the researcher to have historical perspectives and perspectives. In the thesis, the historical perspective is also applied to select LHDLs suitable for tourism development trends, proposing directions for the rational use of natural resources and climate change. In addition, with the climate trend strongly influenced by global climate change, in the South, natural resources and climate change are most severely affected, it is necessary to use the historical perspective to have appropriate responses.

1.3.2. Research method

1.3.2.1. General research methodology

a. Methods of data collection, analysis and processing

This is a relatively important method in the process of researching the topic, relevant information, reports, data, documents, etc. are collected and updated from different sources and classified according to each purpose of use for each specific content of the topic; then processed and analyzed to draw necessary conclusions and serve as a basis for the comments in the topic. In the thesis, the researcher collected a series of climate data from 20 stations over a period of 35 years to classify data and create a SKH map for DL, calculate the TCI index, and also update additional data on the current status of economic development, labor population and infrastructure of the region until 2030, the data is also compared and updated with data from the Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism, the Department of Tourism of the locality, and the People's Committees of the provinces and cities in the region.

b. Expert method

The expert survey method also plays a very important role in the process of implementing the thesis, with the professional support of experts from the Institute of Geography (Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology), Ho Chi Minh City Institute of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City Institute of Meteorology, especially the two supervisors (Prof. Dr. Nguyen Khanh Van, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dang Van Phan), the PhD student has identified objectively, with a scientific basis the criteria for evaluating natural resources for tourism, identified the different importance of the indicators for evaluating resources for tourism development, and determined the evaluation weights; this will limit the scoring and evaluation based on subjective opinions, lacking accuracy. The expert method is also implemented when the researcher contacts and exchanges with tourism management staff and local people doing tourism to quickly and accurately obtain information on resource use, current status of tourism development, information is collected and selected to suit the research purpose, supplement and filter standard data for the thesis.

c. Mapping and GIS methods

In geographical research, cartographic methods are indispensable in the research process and are used throughout the research process. Maps allow to clearly and specifically determine the scope of the research, the relationship between objects in space and time within the research scope. The researcher used component maps (administrative, geological, topographic, vegetation maps, etc.) to exploit information, determine the scope, and draw survey routes. In addition, analyze, evaluate and create result maps. Analyze and evaluate by integrating and overlaying component maps on Mapinfo software. Cartographic and GIS methods effectively support the editing of maps according to personal intentions, as well as help the researcher clearly construct the results of his research through visual channels. The entire thesis has 16 maps at a scale of 1:250,000 showing the contents of the South.

d. Field method

The field survey method aims to collect, complete documents and verify research results against reality. During the thesis, with the advantage of being a citizen of the South and working at a university, the PhD student had many opportunities to conduct fieldwork in the research area: natural reality, conferences, seminars of the region, and preliminary rounds to collect statistical data. The fieldwork process was

The field survey was carried out during the period from 2012 to 2018 and was conducted in many phases, selecting key points that are potential and exploited tourist destinations: Ba Den Mountain, Cao Dai Holy See (Tay Ninh), Chua Chan Mountain, Giang Dien Waterfall, Tri An Lake (Dong Nai), Bu Dang, Bu Dop, Southern Central Bureau Base (Binh Phuoc), Monkey Island, Sac Forest War Zone (Can Gio), May Lake, Xuyen Moc (Vung Tau), Sam Mountain, Ba Pagoda, Tra Su Melaleuca Forest (An Giang), Ha Tien, Thach Dong (Kien Giang), Con Dao, Moc Hoa Border Gate (Long An), etc. ( map 1). The field survey process was divided into many stages throughout the thesis implementation process:

First phase: Conduct field surveys and collect information according to the evaluation criteria. This is an important phase because a lot of data is collected and verified in the field.

Middle stage: Supplement and update survey information from the first stage

Final stage: After the assessment results are available, field methods help to confirm the information for the research results (for questionable cases).

e. Sociological investigation methods

Sociological investigation is a scientific method of collecting primary information in words based on direct (interview) or indirect (questionnaire) interactions between the researcher and the interviewee. Compared to some other methods such as observation, the investigation method is superior because it not only stops at description but also answers the questions of why and how. In which, the questionnaire is one of the important elements of the investigation method. The results are expressed by statistical and mathematical data participating in this method to quantify social factors. The researcher conducted semi-structured interviews with tourists at some tourist destinations in the South. The structure of the interview with the measurement level is estimated by bipolar questions (yes - no) and open questions. The selected survey points are DK attractions such as Ba Den Mountain, War Remnants Museum, Independence Palace, Sac Forest War Zone, Chua Chan Mountain, Mo Waterfall, Tra Su Melaleuca Forest, Ba Pagoda, War Zone D, Minh Dam Base, Cai Rang Floating Market, etc.

1.3.2.2. Methodology of Natural Geographic Zoning

a. The relationship between natural geographical zoning and tourism development: Natural resources are always associated with natural conditions and are exploited simultaneously with natural resources. When studying and researching natural resources, people study each component of nature, natural synthesis and unique natural phenomena.

a.1. Zoning of natural resources for tourism development is the fundamental scientific basis in tourism development research: The results of zoning of natural resources for tourism development (zoning map, system of annotation and explanation indicators) are the most comprehensive and comprehensive scientific and knowledge bases on the non-repetitive differentiation of natural resources and natural resources of a territory, playing the role of providing basic information to serve the exploitation of the territory for different economic purposes, in the case of the thesis, for tourism development purposes.

a.2. The zoning of natural resources aims to divide natural geographical units - natural resource complexes with different characteristics of natural resources and natural resources: Large-scale territories are often not uniform in natural resources and natural resources, which creates diversity and richness of natural resources and natural resources. Natural resource complexes often have different natural characteristics as well as different levels of resource concentration, so the ability to exploit and use them is different. Territories with rich natural resources and natural resources will be more diverse in socio-economic development as well as in the method of using resources and natural resources.

residential space... From there, it creates cultural diversity - a premise for the formation and development of natural resources. Similarities in the natural resources of the natural resources complex contribute to creating cultural characteristics, thereby creating regional culture and local cultural characteristics. Thus, the differentiation into territorial complexes has created diversity and richness, uniqueness and characteristics of natural resources and natural resources. In particular, the uniqueness and specificity of resources have created the characteristics and attractiveness of tourism products. Zoning natural resources is to outline natural resources complexes that are relatively homogeneous in nature, but different from other natural resources complexes, thereby finding appropriate solutions in exploiting, rationally using resources and protecting the environment in tourism development.

a.3. The DLTN zoning divides the total areas into basic units for TNDL assessment: In TNDL assessment, the total areas of DLTN are used as basic units to assess different levels of favorableness for PTDL.

a.4. Zoning of natural resources is the basis for establishing plans and strategic orientations in tourism development: In the assessment based on the synthesis of natural resources, the assessment based on the classification units of natural synthesis for tourism development is a suitable and very good direction. The South is a large territory, the assessment of natural resources, natural resources, and human resources for tourism development on a semi-quantitative basis will give us strategic orientations for tourism development.

b. Zoning principles: In the world, many authors have proposed different principles for zoning the coastal zone. Phedina proposed 4 principles: zoning, non-zoning, zoning - non-zoning, emergence and synthesis [67]. AGIxatsenko proposed 2 principles: objective nature, emergence or history [36]. VIProkaev established 6 principles: objectivity, relative uniformity, emergence, common territory, comparison and priority consideration of common coastal zone zoning rules) [74]. FN Mincov proposed 4 principles: common territory, emergence, synthesis and relative uniformity [51]. In the works on zoning the coastal zone in Vietnam, there are many zoning principles mentioned. Some principles used by many authors are: objective principle [Vu Tu Lap, 42] [The zoning team of coastal zone, 102]; emergence principle; principle of synthesis; principle of territorial integrity; relative uniformity [Nguyen Van Nhung, Nguyen Van Vinh, 64], [DLTN Zoning Team, 102]

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