The economic scenarios assume that the world economy grows steadily, without too many political and social fluctuations; the process of economic reform and domestic integration continues to be promoted. At that time, the GDP growth rate in the period of 2014-2015 is likely to improve. In both the high and low scenarios, the economic growth rate in the period of 2016-2020 is forecast to increase more than the corresponding figure in the period of 2011-2015. Macroeconomic stability continues to be maintained, inflation is low. Inflation in both scenarios in the period of 2016-2020 is lower than the previous period, especially in the high scenario, the inflation rate is lower than the economic growth rate.
The difference between the scenarios depends on the acceleration of economic reforms and the ability of the Vietnamese economy to take advantage of international integration opportunities. In both scenarios, investment capital in the 2014-2020 period is forecast to be more positive from both domestic and foreign sources. The low scenario occurs if the economy fails to accelerate the restructuring process and transform the growth model, then although the amount of capital is more abundant, the efficiency of capital use is low, causing inflationary pressure and making it difficult for the economy to escape further instability in the medium term.
However, in the high growth scenario, the restructuring process and growth model transformation are promoted to increase capital absorption capacity, economic growth rate will be higher, and at the same time reduce inflationary pressure, creating the premise for sustainable economic development.
Table 3.2 Forecast of population growth rate, GDP and CPI according to scenarios to 2020 average by stages, %.
Population | Low scenario | High scenario | |||
CPI | GDP | CPI | GDP | ||
2016-2020 | 0.98 | 6.96 | 6.62 | 7.10 | 7.23 |
Maybe you are interested!
-
GDP and GDP Growth Rate of Hanoi as of December 31, 2006, by Economic Sector - Calculated at 1994 Prices -
Population Growth Rate of Tay Ninh Province in the Period 2000 - 2016 -
Current Status of Operations and Performance Evaluation of Vietnam Debt Trading Company (Datc) from 2012 to 2015 -
Region III Growth Rate and GDP of Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (%) -
Vietnam GDP Growth Rate Chart
(Source: Forecast of some socio-economic indicators of Vietnam in the period 2014-2020, NCSEIF, February 2014)
3.1.2. Forecast of Vietnam debt trading market to 2020
- Good scenario: Bad debt bottlenecks will be handled, cash flow in the economy
is cleared. With the commitment to bring bad debt to below 3% by the end of 2015, the State Bank is making efforts to find many measures to handle bad debt. Thus, in the period of 2016-2020, the problem of bad debt will no longer be an obstacle or "bottleneck" of the economy. Bad debt data is made public clearly and transparently. Therefore, the debt trading market will be completed, debt trading companies will operate easily and stably, without sudden fluctuations in debt trading turnover.
- Bad scenario: Bad debt exceeds the 3% mark in early 2016, and due to unfavorable developments in the world economy due to falling oil prices, the Chinese stock market plummeting, capital flows out of Vietnam, Vietnamese enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises and manufacturing enterprises, encounter many difficulties, leading to poor debt repayment capacity, bad debt of the banking system increases again. According to this scenario, in the period 2016-2020, the problem of bad debt will still be a matter of concern and needs to be thoroughly resolved. Therefore, debt trading companies must operate more actively, debt trading sales may increase dramatically.
However, due to the continuous growth of the economy, the credit balance of the economy will always increase in value, so the total bad debt still tends to increase in value even though the bad debt ratio is controlled below 3%. Therefore, although the author's viewpoint chooses a good scenario to forecast the debt trading market situation until 2020, the Vietnam Debt Trading Company, VAMC and 20 existing debt trading companies still have a very large market to develop.
3.2. Viewpoints and goals for developing a market economy by 2020
of the Communist Party of Vietnam and its guiding significance for DATC's activities
3.2.1. Viewpoints and goals for developing a market economy by 2020
of the Communist Party of Vietnam
According to the Draft Document of the 12th Congress, Vietnam's goals by 2020 are:
- Strive to basically and synchronously perfect the socialist-oriented market economic institutional system according to the common standards of a modern market economy and international integration; ensure synchronization between economic and political institutions, between the State and the market; ensure harmony between economic growth and
cultural development, human development, social progress and equity, ensuring social security, environmental protection, sustainable social development; proactively and actively integrating into the international economy in conjunction with building an independent and self-reliant economy; ensuring publicity, transparency and predictability in building and implementing economic institutions, creating stable and favorable conditions for socio-economic development.
- Focus on perfecting a synchronous and modern market economic institution on the basis of fully complying with the laws of the market economy and deeply integrating into the international economy. Perfecting the legal framework, mechanisms and policies, implementing synchronous solutions to develop, operate smoothly and effectively all types of markets and ensure fair and transparent competition. The development of strategies, planning, plans, resource allocation for production and business and price management must follow the market mechanism. At the same time, using State resources, regulatory tools, distribution and redistribution policies to achieve progress, social justice, ensure social security, reduce poverty, gradually improve social welfare and the material and spiritual life of the people.
- Direction to continue perfecting the ownership institution, developing economic sectors and types of enterprises:
Institutionalizing property rights (including ownership, use, disposal and benefit from property use) of the State, organizations and individuals as stipulated in the 2013 Constitution. The State protects the legitimate property ownership rights of the people according to the provisions of law. Ensuring transparency in obligations and responsibilities in state administrative procedures and public services so that property rights can be traded smoothly. Ensuring the State's right to manage and benefit from public property and the right to equality in accessing public property for all entities in the economy. Improving the capacity of institutions and perfecting the mechanism for resolving civil and economic disputes in protecting property rights.
All enterprises in all economic sectors must operate according to market mechanisms, equality and competition according to the law. There are policies to promote the development of Vietnamese enterprises to truly become the core force, leading the way in
industrialization and modernization. Ensure freedom of business in areas not prohibited by law; build and implement a synchronous and effective post-inspection mechanism; continue to improve competition laws; enhance transparency of state monopoly and enterprise monopoly; control business monopoly. Improve institutions to protect investors, ownership rights and property rights. Improve laws on enterprise bankruptcy according to market mechanisms.
State-owned enterprises operate under market mechanisms. Promote equitization and sell capital that the State does not need to hold, including enterprises that are operating effectively; perfect the institution for pricing land, tangible assets and intangible assets (intellectual property, brands, etc.) in equitization according to market principles. Separate production and business tasks from political, public interest tasks and national defense and security tasks.
Continue to innovate the content and operation methods of the collective economy and cooperative economy; promote linkages and cooperation based on benefit relationships, apply advanced management methods in accordance with the market mechanism. The State has mechanisms and policies to support access to capital, human resource training, technology transfer, support market development, create conditions for the development of cooperative economy on the basis of developing and promoting the role of household economy. Along with the process of perfecting institutions, there needs to be more drastic direction in organization and implementation.
Encourage the development of enterprise types and forms of production and business organization with mixed ownership, especially joint stock enterprises.
Perfecting mechanisms and policies to encourage and facilitate the strong development of the private economy in most economic sectors and fields, becoming an important driving force of the economy. Perfecting policies to support the development of small and medium enterprises and start-ups. Encouraging the formation of multi-ownership private economic groups and private capital contribution to state economic groups.
In managing and developing enterprises of all economic sectors, it is necessary to promote positive aspects that benefit the country, while at the same time inspecting, supervising, and controlling.
control, implement publicly, transparently, prevent and limit negative aspects according to regulations
by law
- Direction for synchronous development of market factors and market types:
Consistently implement the market price mechanism; ensure the correctness, completeness, publicity and transparency of price-forming factors for essential public goods and services; and at the same time have appropriate support policies for policy beneficiaries and the poor. Do not integrate social policies into prices. Complete the law on fees and charges; review and convert the fee and charge policy for a number of public services to apply the service price regime. Expand the bidding, auction and price appraisal mechanisms. Promote the completion of consumer rights protection institutions, fully and properly promote the role of consumers and consumer rights protection associations in the economy. Continue to develop synchronously and operate smoothly all types of markets.
- Directions to improve the Party's leadership capacity, the effectiveness and efficiency of the State's management of socio-economic issues and promote the people's role as masters in socio-economic development:
Improve the Party's capacity to formulate guidelines and policies for socio-economic development; strengthen leadership in institutionalizing and organizing the implementation of the Party's guidelines and policies, and the State's policies and laws on socio-economic development; strengthen inspection, supervision, preliminary and final reviews of the implementation of the Party's guidelines, policies and resolutions; lead the arrangement of cadres and lead and direct the implementation of cadres working in socio-economic fields. Improve the capacity and effectiveness of socio-economic advisory work at all levels and in all sectors.
The issue of "the state economy playing the leading role" has been clearly stated in the Platform and the Constitution. While affirming that the socialist-oriented market economy has many forms of ownership and many economic sectors, it also states: "in which, the state economy plays the leading role". The state economy includes state resources and state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises, as well as enterprises of other economic sectors, must operate according to market mechanisms.
equality and competition according to the law. The Draft Document stated: Continue to promote the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises focus on key and essential areas; important areas and national defense and security; areas in which other economic sectors do not invest. State resources (resources, land, state budget, national reserve funds, etc.), along with tools, mechanisms and policies are used by the State to orient and regulate the economy, to achieve progress and social justice. In practice in our country, when State resources, together with mechanisms and policies, focus on a field or area, they will lead and promote development in that field or area. With such an important meaning, the state economy plays a leading role; State-owned enterprises are only a part of the state economy, operating according to market mechanisms, competing equally before the law with enterprises of other economic sectors, and being restructured as mentioned above.
3.2.2. Meaning of orientation for DATC's activities:
- Firstly , orient DATC in continuing to create a debt trading market that operates according to market mechanisms.
- Second , the main source of capital for debt trading companies to buy bad debts from credit institutions is provided by the Government. However, in the current difficult budget conditions, debt trading companies need to limit their dependence on capital from the budget and need to be flexible in arranging operating capital through issuing bonds, inviting foreign investors as well as other forms if appropriate and speeding up the handling process in each bad debt that the debt trading company participates in.
- Third , bad debt handling needs to be bought and sold according to market mechanisms, meaning that debt trading companies need to price debts according to market prices, make information transparent, and promote the development of the debt trading market.
- Finally , debt trading companies need to buy and sell debt selectively. The selection of priority bad debts to handle needs to be considered on a broad framework, that is, the impact of the bad debt sector on the economy as well as social life.
association and on the basis of appropriate existing resources of the debt trading company at the time of receiving and processing to ensure capital safety and achieve efficiency in the processing process.
Thus, the direction to improve operational efficiency for DATC will include: Regarding business operations: Continue to increase bad debt purchase according to the planned targets assigned by the Government, focus on handling purchased bad debts to avoid
DATC becomes a bad debt warehouse that cannot be handled.
On strengthening resources: Continue to strengthen high-quality human resources
and financial capacity for DATC to fully perform assigned tasks.
Regarding the legal corridor: Focus on researching and proposing opinions for competent authorities to amend and supplement legal regulations to strengthen DATC's authority in thoroughly handling bad debts.
3.3. DATC's operational goals until 2020:
Firstly , DATC continues to improve its capacity in debt buying, selling and handling to support businesses and the commercial banking system to accelerate the handling of bad debts in the economy, contributing to the formation and development of an organized debt buying and selling market and promoting the development of the capital market and the stock market; at the same time, thereby improving the financial situation of businesses, contributing to accelerating the restructuring and conversion of shares of state-owned enterprises, focusing on state-owned corporations and groups according to the policies of the Party and the Government.
Second , promote the activities of receiving and handling debts and assets excluded from the enterprise value when arranging and converting shares of state-owned enterprises, thereby helping enterprises focus on completing the conversion work, soon stabilizing production and business; at the same time, collecting for the state budget through handling debts and assets classified and received from enterprises.
Third , in the period 2015-2020, basic indicators such as: Revenue, profit, payment to the State budget, debt purchase turnover, number of enterprises restructuring and converting through debt purchase and sale activities... will grow annually from 10 to 15%.
3.4. Solutions and recommendations to improve operational efficiency for DATC
3.4.1. Solutions on policies and legal framework:
Scientific basis of the solution
The legal framework in the country is one of the important factors that determine the success or failure of a debt trading company in achieving the goal of resolving bad debt. Without a system of legal documents as a basis for the activities of a debt trading company, the debt trading company itself will have to face the same difficulties that banks have encountered when recovering bad debt. In order to thoroughly resolve bad debt, DATC needs to be granted some special rights to be able to handle, buy back bad debt, and restructure loans (which can be divided or combined) for profitable investment.
Currently, the business lines of Vietnam Debt Trading Company are related to the debts and outstanding assets of many enterprises. However, there are no clear guidelines for the business lines of enterprises that this unit is restructuring. This makes it difficult for DATC to develop plans to buy debts and exploit assets acquired during its operations.
However, in the list of national economic sectors issued by the General Statistics Office and the registered business sectors of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, there is no field of debt purchase, sale, and enterprise restructuring. This is a new, specific, and risky business sector, so its application has encountered many difficulties, affecting the effectiveness of debt purchase and sale and enterprise restructuring activities of DATC. Specifically, after completing the restructuring, the restructured enterprises are monitored in the external investment portfolio of DATC, the consideration and assessment of investment activities outside the sector is often based on the business sector of the enterprise with investment capital. Therefore, if an enterprise restructures its real estate, finance, etc. business activities, DATC will be assessed as investing outside the sector.
In addition, during the debt purchase process, DATC has debts secured by land use rights value, or after purchasing and restructuring the debt, DATC receives the land use rights value in place of the debt of the debtor.