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Correlation Analysis of Technical and Economic Factors on Productivity

capital/borrowing capital (14.3%), infected/poor quality seed (14.2%), sedimented/small water level (12.3%) and unquarantined/poorly quarantined shrimp seed source (12.2%).

Table 4.10: Difficulties in raising BTC and TC shrimp in crop 1


Hard

%

Shrimp diseases are difficult/impossible to treat.

20.4

Lack of capital/need to borrow capital

14.3

Infected/poor quality seeds

14.2

Sedimented/small level

12.3

No quarantine/little quarantine

12.2

High interest rate

8.2

Polluted/poor quality water

6.1

No direct testing

4.1

Cost increase

2.0

Far from road traffic

2.0

Glowing water

2.0

Algae dieback

2.0

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Correlation Analysis of Technical and Economic Factors on Productivity


4.7.2.6. Analysis of technical and economic factors

Shrimp stocking density tended to decrease from the beginning of January to May, from 18 shrimp/m2 to 15 shrimp/m2 . However, households releasing shrimp in the March group (MV2) had the largest average harvest size (38 shrimp/kg), the shortest average farming time (146 days), and the smallest average FCR of 1.55. The economic efficiency of households releasing shrimp in March was also the highest, with an average profit of 120 million VND/ha and a B/C ratio of 0.82. The number of households with losses accounted for a large proportion.

The lowest was 5.9%. The loss rate in group MV1 was the highest (11.1%). According to the seasonal group, shrimp productivity tended to decrease gradually at the end of the dry season, however, the group released in March (MV2) had the highest profit and B/C ratio and the lowest loss rate.

In terms of pond size, the stocking density of these ponds does not have much difference (from 16-17 fish/m2 ) . However, in the group of ponds with an area < 4,000 m2 ( DT1), the harvest size is the largest (36 fish/kg) and the farming time is the shortest (144 days). The economic efficiency of this group is also the highest compared to the group of ponds ≥

4,000 m 2 and < 5,000 m 2 (DT2) and ≥ 5,000 m 2 (DT3), the average profit is

123 million VND/ha, the average B/C ratio was 0.81 and the number of households with capital loss was 0%. The loss rate of group DT3 was the highest (13.3%). The small pond group (DT1) had the highest profit and B/C ratio, the lowest loss rate.

In terms of density groups, the stocking density group ≥ 15 fish/m 2 and < 20 fish/m 2 (MD2) has the highest economic efficiency with an average profit of 140 million VND.

VND/ha, the average B/C ratio is 0.96. However, group MD2 also has the highest rate of households losing money at 13.3% and the lowest is in the group with stocking density ≥ 20 fish/m 2 (MD3) (7.6%). According to the density group, the higher the density, the higher the productivity, however, in terms of profit, MD2 (average) has the highest profit and the highest B/C ratio compared to the groups with stocking density < 15 fish/m 2 (MD1) and MD2.

Table 4.11: Technical factors according to crop group, stocking density and pond size


Grouping

N=40

Stocking density (fish/m 2 )

Survival rate

(%)

Harvest size

(head/kg)

Time of raising

(day)

Productivity

(kg/ha)

FCR

Season (month)

1 – 2 (MV1)

n

9


18


58


46


148


2,760


1.57

3 (MV2)

17

17

60

38

146

2,641

1.55

4-5 (MV3)

14

15

60

40

157

2,452

1.67

Pond size (m 2 )

< 4000 (DT1)


13


17


56


36


144


2,722


1.69

≥ 4000, <5000 (DT2)

12

18

63

43

157

2,925

1.54

≥ 5000 (DT3)

15

16

60

43

150

2,239

1.56

Density (individuals/m 2 )

<15 (MD1)


12


12


53.8


38


160


1,496


1.73

≥ 15, < 20 (MD2)

15

16

64.4

41

146

2,740

1.37

≥ 20 (MD3)

13

22

58.9

42

145

3,461

1.73

Table 4.12: Economic factors by season, stocking density and pond size


Grouping

N=40

Total fixed costs (million)

VND/ha)

Total variable costs (million)

VND/ha)

Total cost (million)

VND/ha)

Profit (million)

VND/ha)

B/C

% loss

Season (month)

1 – 2 (MV1)

n

9


8.31


130.79


139.10


106.28


0.74


11.1

3 (MV2)

17

9.16

123.52

132.68

120.67

0.82

5.9

4-5 (MV3)

14

8.18

123.31

131.24

101.27

0.75

7.1

Pond size (m 2 )

< 4000 (DT1)


13


11.89


136.50


148.39


123.35


0.81


0.0

≥ 4000, <5000 (DT2)

12

8.64

135.96

144.60

121.35

0.75

8.3

≥ 5000 (DT3)

15

5.79

106.26

112.05

91.06

0.77

13.3

Density (individuals/m 2 )

<15 (MD1)


12


9.08


80.06


89.14


51.32


0.59


8.3

≥ 15, < 20 (MD2)

15

7.71

119.98

127.69

139.79

0.96

13.3

≥ 20 (MD3)

13

9.26

172.27

181.53

131.76

0.75

7.6

4.7.2.7. Correlation analysis of technical and economic factors on productivity

The linear multivariate relationship is presented in Table 4.13. In which density, feed amount, lime cost, chemical cost have positive correlation with shrimp productivity, harvested shrimp size (shrimp/kg) has negative correlation, the number of shrimp/kg increases, shrimp productivity will decrease.


STT

Interpretation

B

Std. Error

t

Sig.

1


Constant

15,739

407,972

1,754

0.088

2


Density (individuals/m 2 )

17,458

29,450

0.593

0.557

3


Harvest size (head/kg)

-8,491

4,814

-1,764

0.087

4


Feed amount (kg/ha)

0.322

0.067

4,807

0.000

5


Lime cost (VND/ha/crop)

0.0000354

0.0000151

2,347

0.025

6


Chemical cost (VND/ha/crop)

0.0000214

0.0000067

3,171

0.003



Dependent variable: yield (kg/ha)





Table 4.13: Correlation between factors and productivity of BTC + TC model crop 1


R = 0.905; R 2 = 0.820; Adjusted R 2 = 0.793; sig. F = 0.000


Linear correlation function between productivity and factors:

Y = 15.739+17.458X 1 -8.491X 2 +0.322X 3 +0.0000354X 4 +0.0000214X 5

In there

Y: Productivity (kg/ha/crop) X 1 : Stocking density (fish/m 2 ) X 2 : Harvest size (fish/kg) X 3 : Feed amount (kg/ha)

X 4 : Lime cost (VND/ha/crop)

X 5 : Chemical cost (VND/ha/crop)

4.7.3. Semi-intensive and intensive shrimp farming in crop 2 (BTC + TC crop 2)

4.7.3.1. General information

The survey results of 40 farming households in Vinh Chau and My Xuyen districts show that the farming season is from May to the end of December. The land used to build shrimp ponds was previously used by people for rice production. Shrimp farmers in the second crop have experience in shrimp farming from 3-15 years, on average 7 years. The majority of households have 6 years or more of shrimp farming experience, 72.5%, less than 6 years, 27.5%. The technical level of farmers is from practical experience, 75%, training is 25%. Information sources are regularly collected by farmers from direct extension work such as training, seminars, 37.5%, television stations, 25% and from neighboring farming households, companies selling feed, medicine and chemicals.

4.7.3.2. Technical aspects

The number of households applying the process of raising shrimp without changing water is 42.5%, farmers only add fresh water to the pond to regulate salinity when water evaporates and compensate for the leaked water. The number of households applying the form of changing water is 57.5%, with the amount of water changed monthly from 10-30%/month and an average of 21%/month.

The average total pond surface area is 8,345 m 2 /household. The number of shrimp ponds ranges from 1-5 ponds /household, with an average of 2 ponds /household. The average pond area is 3,615 m 2 /pond. The average pond depth is 1.1 m. The average settling pond area is 1,553 m 2 /household. The number of households without settling ponds accounts for 2.5%. Among the households with settling ponds, the ratio of settling pond area to the area of ​​the shrimp pond is the highest, less than 20%, accounting for 50%, from 20% to less than 30% accounting for 32.5% and greater than 30% accounting for 17.5%. Settling ponds are mainly used for water treatment and storing saltwater used in the process of adding and changing water for shrimp ponds.

The number of farmers applying the wet method of renovation is 55%, and the number of farmers applying the dry method is 45%. Shrimp ponds are drained and dried before starting to renovate the pond. After drying the bottom, the humus and waste from the previous crop are removed from the pond by bulldozer for dry renovation, or scraped and pumped out of the pond by machine (wet renovation) and limed and washed 2-3 times before taking water into the pond to treat and kill weeds and add fertilizer to create water color. The majority of farmers (70%) only use pumps to pump water into the pond and 30% of households also take water in through the tide and combine it with the use of pumps. The quality of water taken into the pond at the beginning of the farming season had an average pH of 8.0 (ranging from 7.0–8.6), average alkalinity of 104 mg/L (ranging from 80–120 mg/L) and average salinity of 5‰ (ranging from 2–10‰).

After processing and coloring the water, the seed can be released. The origin of the seed is purchased directly from the hatchery in Ca Mau by 15%, directly from the hatchery in the Central region by 2.5% and farmers buy seed through agents in the province (mainly from the Central region) by 82.5%. The size of the seed released ranges from PL 12-16 . Research results show that 45% of farmers bring shrimp seed samples for disease testing by PCR method, the remaining 55% of households only know that the shrimp seed has been tested and the quality of the shrimp seed is assessed by sensory, salinity shock and formalin.

The average stocking density was 17 shrimp/m 2 , higher than the study of Tran Van Viet (2006) of 13.2 shrimp/m 2 (from 7-32 shrimp/m 2 ). The average survival rate was 43% (from 6-90%) also higher than the study of Tran Van Viet (2006) of 27.1%. The size of harvested shrimp was 30-150 shrimp/kg, with an average of 51 shrimp/kg. Industrial feed was used to feed the shrimp.

The average farming time is 131 days/crop. The average shrimp yield is 1,828 kg/ha, ranging from 50 - 6,200 kg/ha. The average FCR is 2.2 (Table 4.14). Farmers harvest completely at once by pulling the electric net at 52.5%, draining is 17.5%, and combining both methods is 30%.

The average farming time in the second crop (131 days) is shorter than the first crop (150 days) because many households harvest early due to shrimp disease, and shrimp prices are often high. This shows that the average harvest size of the second crop (51 shrimp/kg) is smaller than the first crop (41 shrimp/kg) as well as the rate of households losing money in the second crop is higher than the first crop.

Table 4.14: Technical factors of the BTC + TC shrimp farming model for crop 2


Interpretation

Medium

Smallest

Biggest

Total pond area (m 2 /household)

8,345

4,000

20,000

Pond area (m 2 /pond)

3,615

2,000

6,667

Pond water depth (m)

1.1

0.9

1.3

Settling pond area (m 2 /household)

1,553

500

7,000

Stocking density (fish/m 2 )

17

7

32

Stocking size (PL)


12

16

Rearing time (days)

131

60

180

Harvest size (head/kg)

51

30

150

Survival rate (%)

43

6

90

Food price (VND/kg)

20,250

17,000

22,000

Yield (kg/ha)

1,828

50

6,200

FCR

2.2

0.7

15

4.7.3.3. Economic aspects

Industrial feed is used with feed prices ranging from 17,000–

22,000 VND/kg, average 20,250 VND/kg. Immediately after harvest, 10% of farming households sell raw shrimp directly to processing companies, and 90% sell to warehouse owners.

The average selling price of commercial shrimp was 86,750 VND/kg. The average total cost was 97.92 million VND/ha. The average revenue was 161.37 million VND/ha. The average profit was 75.5 million VND/ha, ranging from a loss of 81 million VND/ha to a profit of 454.86 million VND/ha. The number of households with losses was 35%, the average B/C ratio was 0.6, ranging from a loss of 0.9 to a profit of 2.8 (Table 4.15).

The number of households losing money in shrimp farming in the second crop is 35%, lower than the study of Tran Van Viet (2006) of 64%. Comparing the average rate of shrimp farming households losing money in the first and second crop is 21.5%, lower than the years 2002 which was 25 - 30% (Le Xuan Sinh, 2003), 56.2% in 2005 (Tran Van Viet, 2006). The rate of losing money tends to decrease. In general. The profit in the first crop (110.64 million VND/ha/crop) is higher than that in the second crop (75.5 million VND/ha/crop), the reason is that the number of losing households is higher.

Operating capital: The number of households that did not borrow operating capital accounted for 50%, lower than in crop 1. The level of borrowing operating capital was also higher in crop 1, more than 95.0% borrowed more than 50.0% of operating capital (Figure 4.15).


Table 4.15: Loan level of BTC+TC shrimp farmers in crop 2


Interpretation

%

% loan level

Percentage of households without loans

50


Percentage of households with loans

50


Borrow from 75-100% of operating capital


55.0

Borrow from 50-74% of operating capital


40.0

Borrow from < 49% of working capital


5.0

The average cost of commercial shrimp produced from this model is 53,566 VND/kg. Variable costs account for the majority of the cost of shrimp farming at 89.8%, fixed costs account for 10.2%. Of which, feed costs are the highest at 55.0%, followed by chemical costs at 10.4% and seed costs at 7.0%. Comparing the cost of commercial shrimp, the cost of shrimp in crop 2 (53,566 VND/kg) is higher than in crop 1 (51,245 VND/kg). In the cost structure, feed costs account for 57.2%, higher than in crop 2 (55.0%) because in crop 2 the proportion of other costs such as seed, fixed costs, fuel, and dredging increases.

Table 4.16: Economic factors of the BTC + TC shrimp farming model crop 2

Unit: million VND/ha/crop


Interpretation

Medium

Smallest


Biggest

Fixed costs

9.99




Pond depreciation

0.96


0.38

2.15

Pump depreciation

2.07


0.6

7.02

Fan blade depreciation

9.96


1.64

15.87

Variable costs

87.93




Food

54.74


2.2

202.38

Slug, dredge

5.83


1.75

15

Breeding stock

6.82


1.79

15.87

Lime

4.16


0.88

10

Chemical

10.23


1

49

Fuel

4.79


0.3

13.46

Other

1.61


0

13.85

Total cost

97.92

18.58

289.14

Selling price (VND)

86.75

20,000

125,000

Cost price (VND)

53,566



Total revenue

161.37

1

744

Total profit

75.5

-81

454.86

B/C

0.6

-0.9

2.8

Note: B: Total profit, C: Total cost






10.4


4.2


7.0


5.9

4.9 1.6

10.2







Fixed Cost Food

Slug, Slug, Lime Seed

Fuel Chemicals

Other

55.0


Figure 4.35: Cost structure of commercial shrimp price (BTC + TC crop 2)


4.7.3.4. Shrimp diseases

The survey results showed that the number of shrimp farming households with completely healthy shrimp ponds accounted for 26.5%, higher than in crop 1 (20.0%). In general, when compared with crop 1, the percentage of diseases that appeared was not much different. The rate of white spot disease (14.3%) and yellow head disease (8.2%) was higher than in crop 1, possibly because the water environment fluctuated more, so shrimp were more susceptible to disease outbreaks, and shrimp had less algae than in crop 1. The time of disease appearance in ponds in crop 2 (30 days) was later than in crop 1 (20 days) (Table 4.17).

Table 4.17: Diseases occurring in ponds


TT

Type of disease

Rate of ponds affected

sick (%)

Time of departure

present (day of raising)

Note

1

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV)

14.3

30-75

45-75 days at most

2

Shrimp is occupied by algae

8.2

45-120


3

Black carry

8.2

60-120


4

Tailed caterpillar

8.2

60-120


5

Red body of unknown cause

8.2

30


6

Golden Head (YHV)

8.2

60


7

Rickets (MBV)

6.1

60


8

Death of unknown cause

6.1

Scattered


9

White manure

4.1

30-60


10

Soft shell

2

90



4.7.3.5. Difficulties

The five reasons that shrimp farmers believe are causing difficulties for shrimp farming today are difficult/impossible to treat shrimp diseases (23.0%), unquarantined/less tested shrimp seed sources (18.9%), high interest rates on external loans (14.9%), polluted/poor quality water sources (12.2%), and lack of technical information (6.8%).


Table 4.18: Difficulties of BTC + TC shrimp farming in crop 2


Hard

%

Shrimp diseases are difficult/impossible to treat.

23.0

No quarantine/little testing

18.9

High interest rate

14.9

Polluted water source/poor quality water

13.5

Lack of information, technique

6.8

No direct testing

5.4

Small/silted canal

4.1

Need to borrow/lack of capital

5.4

Poor quality seed

4.1

High price breed

1.4

Far from road traffic

1.4

Algae dieback

1.4


4.7.3.6. Analysis of technical and economic factors

Grouping by season, we see that seed release in August (MV5) has the highest average yield (1,829 kg/ha/crop), the highest average profit (79.679 million VND/ha/crop), however, the B/C ratio is average (0.4) and the loss rate is average (43%) compared to the 2 groups of seed release from June to July (MV4) and from September to November (MV6). The MV4 group has the lowest average yield (1,461 kg/ha/crop), the lowest average profit (38.872 million VND/ha/crop) compared to the MV5 and MV6 groups, and the highest rate of households losing money. The MV4 group has the lowest average shrimp stocking density.

the most (14 birds/m2 ) .

Classification by pond size group: results show that the area group ≥ 3,000 m 2 /pond and

≤ 4,000 m 2 /pond (DT5) has an average stocking density of 17 fish/m 2, reaching the average density compared to the area group < 3,000 m 2 /pond (DT4) and the group ≥ 4,000 m 2 /pond (DT6), but has the highest average yield (1,967 kg / ha / crop), the highest average profit (91,681 million VND / ha / crop), the highest average B/C ratio (0.7) and the lowest loss rate (14%). According to the pond size group, the smaller the pond area, the higher the stocking density (DT4, 19 fish/m 2 ; DT5, 17 fish/m 2 ; DT6, 15 fish/m 2 ).

By density group: the higher the stocking density, the higher the yield, the higher the profit, but the B/C ratio decreases, the rate of households with losses tends to increase. The stocking density group ≥20 PL/m 2 (MD6) has the highest average yield (2,291 kg/ha/crop), the highest profit (96.725 million VND/ha/crop), but the average B/C ratio (0.4) is lower than the stocking group <15 PL/m 2 (MD4) (0.5), the rate of households with losses is at an average level (36%). The group with the lowest density MD4 has the lowest profit (45.228 million VND/ha/crop), but has the highest B/C ratio (0.5) and the lowest rate of households with losses (31%).

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