Analysis and valuation of VIS stock of Vietnam Italy Steel Joint Stock Company - 12


APPENDIX 1: FORECAST OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OF VIETNAM-ITA STEEL JSC FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS USING REVENUE PROPORTION



2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Sales and service revenue

service


2,278,000,000,000


2,642,480,000,000


3,065,276,800,000


3,555,721,088,000


4,124,636,462,080


4,784,578,296,013

Revenue deductions

14,743,793,783

17,176,120,000

19,924,299,200

23.112.187.072

26.810.137.004

31,099,758,924

Net revenue from sales and supply

service level


2,263,256,206,217


2,625,303,880,000


3,045,352,500,800


3,532,608,900,928


4,097,826,325,076


4,753,478,537,089

Cost of goods sold

1,985,155,116,453

2,290,765,912,000

2,657,288,457,920

3,082,454,611,187

3,575,647,348,977

4,147,750,924,814

Gross profit from sales and service provision


278.101.089.764


334,537,968,000


388,064,042,880


450.154.289.741


522.178.976.099


605.727.612.275

Financial revenue

8,031,797,201

9,248,680,000

10,728,468,800

12,445,023,808

14,436,227,617

16,746,024,036

Financial costs

75,358,058,990

87,466,088,000

101.460.662.080

117.694.368.013

136,525,466,895

158,369,541,598

Interest expense

136.129.870.008

69,232,976,000

80.310.252.160

93.159.892.506

108.065.475.306

125.355.951.356

Cost of sales

30,726,914,091

35,673,480,000

41,381,236,800

48,002,234,688

55,682,592,238

64,591,806,996

Business management costs

19,663,739,813

22,725,328,000

26,361,380,480

30,579,201,357

35,471,873,574

41,147,373,346

Net profit from operating activities

business


311.100.292.050


372,853,928,000


432,510,556,480


501.712.245.517


581.986.204.799


675.103.997.567

Other income

5,482,951,760

6,606,200,000

7,663,192,000

8,889,302,720

10,311,591,155

11,961,445,740

Other costs

586,017,893

792,744,000

919,583,040

1,066,716,326

1,237,390,939

1,435,373,489

Other profits

4,896,933,868

5,813,456,000

6,743,608,960

7,822,586,394

9,074,200,217

10,526,072,251

Profit or loss in Associates

0






Total accounting profit before tax

315,997,225,918

378,667,384,000

439.254.165.440

509.534.831.910

591.060.405.016

685.630.069.819

Current corporate income tax expense

40,036,291,356

52,849,600,000

61,305,536,000

71,114,421,760

82,492,729,242

95,691,565,920

Deferred corporate income tax expense

683,400,000

792,744,000

919,583,040

1,066,716,326

1,237,390,939

1,435,373,489

Profit after corporate income tax

career


275,277,534,562


325,025,040,000


377,029,046,400


437,353,693,824


507.330.284.836


588.503.130.410

Minority shareholder interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

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Analysis and valuation of VIS stock of Vietnam Italy Steel Joint Stock Company - 12



Profit after tax of shareholders of

Parent Company


0


0


0


0


0


0

Basic earnings per share

9,176

10,834

12,568

14,578

16,911

19,617















CURRENT ASSETS

739.621.328.381

838.206.297.671

953.389.112.708

1,091,525,687,905

1,315,346,567,757

1,525,802,018,598

Cash and cash equivalents

149.974.497.262

154.068.225.671

159.788.949.188

170.949.498.222

247.478.187.725

287.074.697.761

Money

115.374.180.005

113,902,529,671

113,196,741,828

116,902,537,684

184.783.713.501

214.349.107.661

Cash equivalents

34,600,317,257

40,165,696,000

46,592,207,360

54,046,960,538

62,694,474,224

72,725,590,099

Short-term financial investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Short term investment

0

0

0

0

0

0

Provision for decline in value of investment securities

short term


0


0


0


0


0


0

Short-term receivables

210.895.132.408

244,693,648,000

283,844,631,680

329,259,772,749

381,941,336,389

443.051.950.211

Accounts receivable

158,776,012,597

184,180,856,000

213,649,792,960

247,833,759,834

287.487.161.407

333.485.107.232

Prepayment to seller

37,548,362,691

43,600,920,000

50,577,067,200

58,669,397,952

68,056,501,624

78,945,541,884

Short-term internal receivables

0

0

0

0

0

0

Receivable according to contract schedule

build


0


0


0


0


0


0

Other receivables

21,411,546,345

24,839,312,000

28,813,601,920

33,423,778,227

38,771,582,744

44,975,035,983

Provision for doubtful debts

-6,840,789,225

-7,927,440,000

-9,195,830,400

-10,667,163,264

-12,373,909,386

-14,353,734,888

Inventory

350.631.825.503

406,677,672,000

471.746.099.520

547.225.475.443

634,781,551,514

736,346,599,756

Inventory

350.631.825.503

406,677,672,000

471.746.099.520

547.225.475.443

634,781,551,514

736,346,599,756

Provision for inventory write-down

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other current assets

28,119,873,208

32,766,752,000

38,009,432,320

44,090,941,491

51.145.492.130

59,328,770,871

Short-term prepaid expenses

0

0

0

0

0

0

VAT deductible

14,491,314,889

16,911,872,000

19,617,771,520

22,756,614,963

26,397,673,357

30,621,301,094

Taxes and government receivables

5,211,562

0

0

0

0

0

Other current assets

13,623,346,757

15,854,880,000

18,391,660,800

21,334,326,528

24,747,818,772

28,707,469,776








LONG-TERM ASSETS

894.233.102.371

1,015,211,996,471

1,152,975,236,075

1,310,141,602,364

1,489,624,781,944

1,694,789,224,188



Long-term receivables

555,832,000,000

644,765,120,000

747.927.539.200

867.595.945.472

1,006,411,296,748

1,167,437,104,227

Long-term receivables from customers

0

0

0

0

0

0

Working capital in affiliated units

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long-term internal receivables

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long-term receivables

555,832,000,000

644,765,120,000

747.927.539.200

867.595.945.472

1,006,411,296,748

1,167,437,104,227

Provision for doubtful long-term receivables (*)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fixed assets

151.007.858.180

163.663.356.471

176,951,629,675

190.904.316.540

205,554,637,748

220.937.475.017

Tangible fixed assets

151.007.858.180

163.663.356.471

176,951,629,675

190.904.316.540

205,554,637,748

220.937.475.017

- Original price

337.479.954.404

354.353.952.124

372.071.649.731

390.675.232.217

410.208.993.828

430.719.443.519

- Accumulated depreciation value

-186,472,096,224

-190.690.595.654

-195.120.020.055

-199.770.915.677

-204.654.356.080

-209,781,968,503

Financial lease fixed assets

0

0

0

0

0

0

- Original price

0

0

0

0

0

0

- Accumulated depreciation value

0

0

0

0

0

0

Intangible fixed assets

0

0

0

0

0

0

- Original price

0

0

0

0

0

0

- Accumulated depreciation value

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cost of unfinished basic construction

0

0

0

0

0

0

Investment real estate

0

0

0

0

0

0

- Original price

0

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

- Accumulated depreciation value

0

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

113,900,000,000

Long-term financial investments

178,376,000,000

196,213,600,000

215,834,960,000

237,418,456,000

261.160.301.600

287.276.331.760

Investment in subsidiaries

0

0

0

0

0

0

Investment in associates and joint ventures

177,276,000,000

195,003,600,000

214,503,960,000

235,954,356,000

259,549,791,600

285,504,770,760

Other long-term financial investments

1,100,000,000

1,210,000,000

1,331,000,000

1,464,100,000

1,610,510,000

1,771,561,000

Provision for decline in value of investment securities

long term


0


0


0


0


0


0

Commercial advantage

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long-term assets

9,017,244,190

10,569,920,000

12,261,107,200

14,222,884,352

16,498,545,848

19.138.313.184

Long-term prepaid expenses

4,461,244,190

5,284,960,000

6,130,553,600

7,111,442,176

8,249,272,924

9,569,156,592

Deferred income tax assets

4,556,000,000

5,284,960,000

6,130,553,600

7,111,442,176

8,249,272,924

9,569,156,592

Other long-term assets

0

0

0

0

0

0










TOTAL ASSETS (270 = 100 +

200)


1,442,730,230,752


1,534,834,640,842


1,634,169,388,784


1,741,388,546,570


1,857,217,424,564


1,982,462,038,983

total asset growth














CAPITAL SOURCES














LIABILITIES PAYABLE (300=310+320)

973,389,400,000

1,129,131,704,000

1,309,792,776,640

1,519,359,620,902

1,762,457,160,247

2,044,450,305,886

Short-term debt

586,129,400,000

679,910,104,000

788.695.720.640

914.887.035.942

1,061,268,961,693

1,231,071,995,564

Short-term loans and debt

455,600,000,000

528,496,000,000

613,055,360,000

711.144.217.600

824.927.292.416

956.915.659.203

Payable to seller

33,258,800,000

38,580,208,000

44,753,041,280

51,913,527,885

60,219,692,346

69.854.843.122

Buyer pays in advance

13,668,000,000

15,854,880,000

18,391,660,800

21,334,326,528

24,747,818,772

28,707,469,776

Taxes and other payments to the State

16,173,800,000

18,761,608,000

21,763,465,280

25,245,619,725

29,284,918,881

33,970,505,902

Must pay employees

4,783,800,000

5,549,208,000

6,437,081,280

7,467,014,285

8,661,736,570

10,047,614,422

Cost to Pay

36,448,000,000

42,279,680,000

49,044,428,800

56,891,537,408

65,994,183,393

76,553,252,736

Internal payables

0

0

0

0

0

0

Payable according to contract schedule

build


0


0


0


0


0


0

Other payables

23,007,800,000

26,689,048,000

30,959,295,680

35,912,782,989

41,658,828,267

48,324,240,790

Other payables

3,189,200,000

3,699,472,000

4,291,387,520

4,978,009,523

5,774,491,047

6,698,409,614

Long-term debt

387,260,000,000

449,221,600,000

521,097,056,000

604.472.584.960

701.188.198.554

813.378.310.322

Long-term payable to seller

0

0

0

0

0

0

Internal long-term payables

0

0

0

0

0

0


APPENDIX 2: FORECAST OF GROWTH RATE OF VIETNAM-ITA STEEL JSC




2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

After 2015

1

Revenue growth rate

16.00%

16.00%

16.00%

16.00%

16.00%

16.00%

16.00%

2

Revenue deductions/revenue ratio

0.65%

0.65%

0.65%

0.65%

0.65%

0.65%

0.65%

3

Net revenue from sales and services

99.84%

99.84%

99.84%

99.84%

99.84%

99.84%

99.84%

4

Cost of goods sold/Revenue ratio

86.69%

86.69%

86.69%

86.69%

86.69%

86.69%

86.69%

5

Gross profit from sales and service provision

12.63%

12.63%

12.63%

12.63%

12.63%

12.63%

12.63%

6

Financial investment interest rate

0.35%

0.35%

0.35%

0.35%

0.35%

0.35%

0.35%

7

Interest

3.31%

3.31%

3.31%

3.31%

3.31%

3.31%

3.31%


Interest expense

2.62%

2.62%

2.62%

2.62%

2.62%

2.62%

2.62%

8

Cost of sales/revenue ratio

1.35%

1.35%

1.35%

1.35%

1.35%

1.35%

1.35%

9

Ratio of Business Administration Expenses/Revenue

0.86%

0.86%

0.86%

0.86%

0.86%

0.86%

0.86%

10

Net operating profit

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

11

Other Income/Revenue Ratio

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

12

Other Expenses/Revenue Ratio

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

12

Other profits

-9.42%

-9.42%

-9.42%

-9.42%

-9.42%

-9.42%

-9.42%

14

Profit or loss ratio in Associates/Revenue

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

15

Total accounting profit before tax

7.68%

7.68%

7.68%

7.68%

7.68%

7.68%

7.68%

16

Current corporate income tax rate

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

17

Deferred corporate income tax expense

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

18

Profit after corporate income tax

6.65%

6.65%

6.65%

6.65%

6.65%

6.65%

6.65%

18.1

Minority Interest Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

18.2

Ratio of Profit after Tax to Shareholders of Parent Company

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

19

Basic earnings per share

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%



















A

CURRENT ASSETS








I.

Cash and cash equivalents










1.

Cash/Sales Ratio

4.48%

4.48%

4.48%

4.48%

4.48%

4.48%

4.48%

2.

Cash Equivalents/Revenue Ratio

1.52%

1.52%

1.52%

1.52%

1.52%

1.52%

1.52%

II.

Short-term financial investments

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1.

Short-term Investment/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%


2.

Short-Term Investment Securities Provision Ratio

Short-term/ Short-term investment


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%

III.

Short-term receivables

9.26%

9.26%

9.26%

9.26%

9.26%

9.26%

9.26%

1.

Receivables/Revenue Ratio

6.97%

6.97%

6.97%

6.97%

6.97%

6.97%

6.97%

2.

Prepayment to Seller/Revenue Ratio

1.65%

1.65%

1.65%

1.65%

1.65%

1.65%

1.65%

3.

Short-term internal receivables/revenue ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%


4.

Ratio of Receivables according to construction contract progress plan

build/DT


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%

5.

Other Receivables/Revenue Ratio

0.94%

0.94%

0.94%

0.94%

0.94%

0.94%

0.94%

6.

Provision for doubtful debts ratio

-0.30%

-0.30%

-0.30%

-0.30%

-0.30%

-0.30%

-0.30%

IV.

Inventory

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

1.

Inventory/Sales Ratio

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

15.39%

2.

Inventory Price Reduction Provision Ratio/Inventory

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

V.

Other current assets

0.79%

0.79%

0.79%

0.79%

0.79%

0.79%

0.79%

1.

Short-term prepaid expenses/revenue ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

2.

Deductible VAT rate/Turnover

0.64%

0.64%

0.64%

0.64%

0.64%

0.64%

0.64%

3.

Tax and State receivables/Revenue ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

4.

Other Current Assets/Revenue Ratio

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%










B.

LONG-TERM ASSETS








I.

Long-term receivables








1.

Long-term receivables from customers/revenue ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

2.

Ratio of Operating Capital in affiliated units/Revenue

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

3.

Long-term internal receivables/revenue ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

4.

Other Long-Term Receivables/Revenue Ratio

24.40%

24.40%

24.40%

24.40%

24.40%

24.40%

24.40%




5.

Long-term bad debt provision ratio (*)/Customer receivables


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%

II.

Fixed assets








1.

Tangible fixed assets









Growth in Original Cost

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%


Depreciation rate

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

25%

2.

Financial lease fixed assets









Growth in Original Cost









Depreciation rate








3.

Intangible fixed assets









Growth in Original Cost









Depreciation rate








4.

Cost of unfinished basic construction








III.

Investment real estate









Growth in Original Cost

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%


Depreciation rate

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

5%

IV.

Long-term financial investments








1.

Investment in subsidiaries








2.

Investment in associates and joint ventures








3.

Other long-term financial investments








4.

Provision for diminution in value of long-term investment securities








V.

Commercial advantage








VI.

Other long-term assets








1.

Long-term prepaid expenses/revenue ratio

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

2.

Deferred Tax Assets/Revenue Ratio

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

3.

Other Long-Term Assets/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%











TOTAL ASSETS




















CAPITAL SOURCES

















A.

LIABILITIES PAYABLE








I.

Short-term debt








1.

Short-term Debt/Revenue Ratio

20.00%

20.00%

20.00%

20.00%

20.00%

20.00%

20.00%

2.

Payables to Sellers/Revenue Ratio

1.46%

1.46%

1.46%

1.46%

1.46%

1.46%

1.46%

3.

Prepaid Buyers/Sales Ratio

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

0.60%

4.

Tax and State payables ratio/Revenue

0.71%

0.71%

0.71%

0.71%

0.71%

0.71%

0.71%

5.

Payable to Employees/Revenue Ratio

0.21%

0.21%

0.21%

0.21%

0.21%

0.21%

0.21%

6.

Expenses payable/revenue ratio

1.60%

1.60%

1.60%

1.60%

1.60%

1.60%

1.60%

7.

Internal Payables/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%


8.

Rate Payable according to construction contract schedule

build /DT


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%


0.00%

9.

Ratio of Other payables/Revenue

1.01%

1.01%

1.01%

1.01%

1.01%

1.01%

1.01%

10.

Short-term Debt Provision/ Short-term Debt Ratio

0.14%

0.14%

0.14%

0.14%

0.14%

0.14%

0.14%

II.

Long-term debt

17.00%

17.00%

17.00%

17.00%

17.00%

17.00%

17.00%

1.

Long-term Payables to Sellers/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

2.

Internal Long-Term Payables/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

3.

Other Long-Term Payables/Revenue Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

4.

Long-term debt/revenue ratio

16.97%

16.97%

16.97%

16.97%

16.97%

16.97%

16.97%

5.

Deferred Income Tax Payable/Revenue Ratio

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

6.

Unemployment benefit reserve ratio/DT

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

0.02%

7.

Long-term Provision for Liabilities/Payables Ratio

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%










B.

CAPITAL SOURCES








I.

Equity capital








1.

Owner's equity








2.

Capital surplus








3.

Other owners' equity








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