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Results of Linear Regression Analysis on Factors Affecting Land Complaints in Vinh City

The results of the multivariate regression analysis show that the Sig coefficient of 0.00 is smaller than the significance level α = 1%, so the regression model is significant, the independent variables have an impact on the dependent variable Y. The adjusted R2 value ranges from 0.817 to 0.849, showing that the independent variables included in the regression affect 82.10 to 84.90% of the change in employment, the remaining 17.90% - 15.10% is due to variables outside the model and random errors. In addition, the Durbin Watson coefficient has a value of 1.932-1954.0, which is in the range of 1.5 to 2.5, so there is no self-similarity phenomenon.

First-order serial correlation occurs (Table 4.17). The variance inflation (VIF) of all variables included in the model is less than 2, so the research model does not have multicollinearity. In addition, the variables included in the research are all statistically significant (Sig. equal to 0 and less than 0.05). From the standardized regression coefficient, we determine the regression equation as follows:

Y = 0.876*CA + 0.743*LE + 0.694*UR + 0.605*LU + 0.491*OR +

0.467*HU + 2.469

Table 4.17. Results of linear regression analysis on factors affecting land complaints in Vinh city

Multi-statistics


Collinearity coefficient

Group Rate of Action

Order of action

rule factor

standardize

Error

dynamic (%)

dynamic




(Sig.)

VIF



Constant

2,469






CA

0.876

4,753

0

1,743

22.60

1

LE

0.743

5,547

0

1,572

19.17

2

UR

0.694

4,542

0

1,563

17.91

3

LU

0.605

5,547

0

1,864

15.61

4

OR

0.491

4,562

0

1,657

12.67

5

HU

0.467

3,545

0

1,536

12.05

6

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Sig. F = 0.000; R 2 = 0.834; Adjusted R 2 = 0.16; Durbin-Watson = 1.973

The results in (Table 4.17) show that all 6 groups of factors included in the research model have an impact on land complaints in Vinh city with different impact rates of the groups of factors. The urbanization factor group has an impact rate of 17.91, ranking third after the land records factor group and the legal factor group, followed by the land user factor group and the related organizational factor group.

related to complaints and the group of human factors for handling complaints. From the above research results, it can be seen that, in the period 2008-2019, the urbanization rate increased from 37.21% to 68.03% with an urbanization rate of 102.94%, the number of land complaints also tended to increase although there were years of increase and years of decrease. In addition, urbanization has a positive impact on land complaints with the impact level ranked 3rd in the 6 groups of impact factors.

4.3.2. Assessment of the impact of urbanization on agricultural land use in Vinh city

4.3.2.1. Current status of agricultural land use in the period 2008-2019 in the urbanization process

Agricultural land area in Vinh city decreased by 509.88 ha from 2008 to 2019. The area of ​​agricultural land decreased (506.23 ha), of which the area of ​​land for perennial crops decreased the most (258.75 ha), followed by the area of ​​land for annual crops 247.48 ha, the area of ​​land for aquaculture decreased by 96.00 ha, and the area of ​​protective forest decreased by 0.23 ha. However, other agricultural land such as greenhouse land, other houses for cultivation and livestock increased by 92.58 ha (Figure 4.6). The area of ​​agricultural land decreased due to being converted into non-agricultural land to implement socio-economic development and national defense and security projects (Vinh City People's Committee, 2020).

Figure 4.6. Fluctuations in agricultural land area in the period 2008-2019

During the period 2008-2019, the State recovered agricultural land from 3,728 agricultural households. The recovered agricultural land area was 563.71 ha. In addition to the recovered land area, the State allowed the conversion of unused land into agricultural land with an area of ​​112.67 ha. The agricultural land use model has also changed in the direction of increasing the value of agricultural products to meet the requirements of domestic and foreign markets to adapt to the reduced agricultural land area. By 2019, 05 typical agricultural land use models have been formed in the direction of applying high technology to production, including: Safe vegetable production model, integrated organic agricultural production model, high-tech vegetable and fruit production model, household economic model and livestock model in the direction of VietGAP (Figure 4.7) (Vinh City People's Committee, 2020).


Figure 4.7. Some typical agricultural land use models in 2015-2019

Table 4.18. Some characteristics of agricultural land use models



Land use model


Location


Area (ha)

Investment capital

(billion VND)

Income

(billion VND/year)

Safe vegetable production

Nghi Lien commune

50.00

20.00

4.0

Integrated organic agricultural production


Nghi Kim commune


80.00


50.00


10.0

High-tech vegetable and fruit production


Nghi Lien commune


0.46


0.80


0.3


Farm economics

Nghi Kim Commune, Hung Hoa Commune


10.00


7.0


5.0


Livestock farming according to VietGAP

Nghi An commune and neighboring communes


5.0


10.0


2.5

Source: Vinh City People's Committee (2020)

The VietGAP-oriented safe vegetable production model is implemented in 3 areas of Nghi Lien and Dong Hung communes with an area of ​​50 hectares, an investment capital of 20 billion VND and an annual income of about 4 billion VND (Table 4.18). The main functional areas include the safe vegetable production area; Auxiliary infrastructure area (pump system, warehouse...; preliminary processing area, goods transit, product introduction... The safe vegetable production area of ​​Hong Lien hamlet, Nghi Lien commune has an area of ​​9.4 hectares with over 50 households directly producing under 2 cooperatives and Nghi Lien commune People's Committee. The safe vegetable production area of ​​Trung Lien hamlet, Nghi Lien commune has a total area of ​​28 hectares. The vegetable production area of ​​Vinh Xuan hamlet, Hung Dong commune has a total production area of ​​13.5 hectares with 135 workers from 70 households directly participating in production. The consumption of safe vegetable products is carried out according to the model of association with enterprises to ensure the output market. The construction of a safe vegetable production model in the direction of VietGAP has helped consumers of Vinh city and neighboring areas have quality vegetable products, while increasing income for vegetable growers.

The comprehensive organic agricultural production model deployed in Nghi Kim commune has a scale of 80 hectares, an investment capital of 50 billion VND, and also has functional areas such as organic agricultural production area; auxiliary infrastructure area (pump system, warehouse, etc.); preliminary processing area, goods transit, product introduction, etc. This model generates revenue.

import about 10 billion VND/year. The integrated organic agricultural production model not only creates safe products, meeting the increasing demands of consumers, but is also a production method that contributes to reducing the environment, promoting the development of sustainable agriculture.

The high-tech vegetable and fruit production model is initially being implemented in Nghi Lien commune with a scale of 0.46 hectares with a net house investment of 800 million VND. In the Spring-Summer crop, melons such as cucumbers, cantaloupes, melons, etc. are grown; in the Summer-Autumn crop, cucumbers are grown; in the Winter-Spring crop, lilies, vegetables, kohlrabi, cabbage, cauliflower, cucumbers, chrysanthemums, etc. are grown. The application of scientific and technological advances such as high-tech vegetable and fruit production in net houses... has brought about very high economic efficiency because production in net houses and membrane houses helps minimize external impacts such as reducing insect pests and diseases, adverse weather conditions such as frost, heavy rain, storms, thereby minimizing the use of pesticides, vegetables, tubers, and fruits meet safety standards, increase productivity, quality and bring high profits. The products retain nutritional value and are safe for consumers. The yield of cucumber is 7 - 8 quintals/sao; cantaloupe and melon is 1.5 - 2 tons/sao; kohlrabi is 1 ton/sao; cabbage is 1.7 - 2.2 tons/sao; cauliflower is 0.8 - 1 ton/sao,... The total income of 1 sao of production in the greenhouse for cucumber is 25 million VND; especially for melon production, the value is 50 million VND/sao, lilies have a very high value of up to 200 million VND/sao/crop, the average of other vegetables is from 10 - 20 million VND/sao/crop.

The family farm economic model was implemented in Nghi Kim and Hung Hoa communes with an area of ​​10 hectares and an investment cost of 50 billion VND. The family farm economic model combines raising pigs, chickens, ducks, quails for breeding and aquaculture. The functional areas include: a livestock area with 13,000 chickens, 300 ducks, 300 pigs, 100,000 quails for breeding. The area for raising silver carp, bighead carp, grass carp, and common carp with about 50 tons of fish harvested each year. The total annual revenue of his household is over 7 billion VND, after deducting expenses, the profit is over 2 billion VND/year. Agricultural products are not only consumed in the market of Vinh city and neighboring districts.

The VietGAP livestock farming model in Nghi An commune and some neighboring communes aims to increase productivity, output and production value while protecting the environment. One of the livestock farming models that brings practical results to Vinh city farmers is the biosafety chicken farming model. This model has been implemented by the Vinh city farmers' association for many years and has helped

for farmers to eliminate poverty and stabilize their lives. Accordingly, the Vinh City Farmers' Association has provided 28,000 breeding chickens from DaBaCo Company, Viet Cuong Company, and Hoa Phat Company. The households that receive chickens are supported by the Farmers' Association with breeding chickens, animal feed, and medicine to prevent diseases for chickens. Not only is the biosafety chicken farming model effective in supporting poverty reduction, but the livestock movement in Vinh City has also been widely developed. Currently, the city has 21 farms and 220 livestock and poultry farms. The city has also built a VietGAP breeding area with 6 farms certified by VietGAP. In addition, the models of raising Egyptian hybrid super-egg chickens, Dong Tao hybrid chickens on biological bedding, and shrimp farming models following VietGAP have been effectively applied by livestock farmers and livestock farming in the direction of goods in line with the trend of urban agricultural development.

During the urbanization period from 2008 to 2019, the area of ​​agricultural land has decreased significantly due to the conversion of land use purposes to non-agricultural land. However, the area of ​​other agricultural land has increased due to the application of high technology in production. The area of ​​land for cultivation and livestock farming has also changed in structure and purpose of use to meet the market demand for agricultural and aquatic products and towards reducing land use area. This is a common land use trend of urban areas in the process of urbanization, which has also been pointed out in studies by Dao Thi Thanh Lam & cs., (2014); Ho Huy Thanh (2018); Nguyen Luu Bao Doan (2016). However, the types of crops and livestock in localities are also different due to the impact of climate, soil, market and strengths of each locality.

4.3.2.2. Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of the impact of urbanization on agricultural land use

a. Strengths

The strengths of households in using agricultural land are the advantages that households gain from using agricultural land. According to the results of a survey of households using agricultural land in Vinh city, the majority of them are dynamic, dare to think, dare to do, ready to apply scientific advances in production; change the structure of crops and livestock to adapt to domestic and international market needs. Many households have boldly invested billions of dong to upgrade facilities and infrastructure to serve agricultural production, business and services.

Many households use compensation and support money from agricultural land recovery to invest in career conversion, create more jobs to earn income or apply new technology to agricultural production with high productivity, good quality, low cost and using less land area... Some households also use compensation and support money to switch to business and service sectors such as rice trading, other consumer goods, or fertilizer services, pesticides, accommodation services, motels... In particular, many households and farm owners have used social networks Zalo, Facebook, Twitter... to promote the consumption of agricultural products, calling for business links on agricultural land. In addition, the application of information technology has also helped facilitate business, credit and financial activities, while also helping agricultural production activities achieve high efficiency, reducing costs and product prices.

b. Weaknesses

Weaknesses are the limitations of households that hinder the effective use of agricultural land under the impact of urbanization. In Vinh city, although land consolidation has been implemented, the agricultural land area of ​​households is still small and scattered. This has limited the application of mechanization and science and technology in production to meet the requirements of the agricultural market. In addition, due to land acquisition for urban development, the agricultural land area of ​​households is increasingly decreasing, so changing production methods as well as changing occupations or performing multiple occupations to ensure people's lives is very necessary. However, to implement these issues, households must have production capital, the ability to change occupations, and create new jobs, which are limitations of many households. In addition, many subjects have their land recovered under the impact of urbanization due to old age, education level, and a dislike of changing careers, work positions, and places of residence, so they keep agricultural land even though the area is small and production has low income, but do not participate in expanding production.

c. Opportunities

Opportunities are favorable external and objective impacts that promote the use of agricultural land by households in the direction of developing green agriculture and circular agriculture in the context of urbanization of Vinh city. According to

Resolution No. 26 of the Politburo, Vinh city is the economic and cultural center of the North Central region, so the Government should pay attention to investing in socio-economic development, including job creation for those whose land is recovered in general and agricultural land in particular. The city is also in the process of building an honest, creative, professional, modern, people-centered administration. This has a positive impact on the effective use of agricultural land, creating products to meet the market demand.

The central location of the country with convenient airports and ports also has a positive impact on the use of agricultural land for the purpose of growing crops, raising livestock and consuming products in the domestic and foreign markets, as well as attracting investors to Vinh city to invest in developing production, processing and consuming agricultural products. In particular, the leaders of the city and Nghe An province are responsible, people-oriented, capable, with good moral qualities, daring to think, daring to do and taking responsibility in proposing solutions for the city's economic development, including the use of agricultural land. In addition, the Vinh City Farmers' Association is one of the organizations that has an important impact on agricultural production, as well as applying high technology, using new varieties, advanced farming methods, and providing credit for households. In addition, the Association is also a bridge connecting households to combine production to create large production areas, meet market demand, as well as reduce production costs, increase product value. There are households raising egg-laying chickens with an income of over 600 million VND/year.

Many farms and ranches apply a closed-loop crop-livestock model. Rice, corn, vegetables, etc. produced for the market are also used as feed for pigs and ducks; excess food, pig and duck waste and grass on the pond banks are used as fish feed; thereby contributing to reducing costs and increasing economic efficiency; livestock products are all clean and safe to meet market requirements. Some households have applied the garden model.

- Ponds and barns on an area of ​​4 hectares are rented from the public land fund to raise buffalo, cows, pigs, ducks, geese, fish, shrimp... In addition, international integration contributes to expanding the product consumption market, increasing product value and income per unit of land area.

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