+ In the coming years, the number of people coming will be balanced with the number of people leaving, so population growth will mainly increase naturally, mechanical increase will be insignificant.
- Population forecast: Through forecast formula: Pt =
+ Pt: Forecast population year
+ P1: Current population in forecast year
P 1 1 n t . In which:
+ n: Population growth rate (including natural increase + mechanical increase)
+ t: Number of forecast years
- Details in table 3.2
Table 3.2. Population forecast for the whole commune
TT
Village name | Current Status | Planning | |||
2015 | 2020 | ||||
Population | Number of households | Population | Number of households | ||
I | Total population of commune, people | 4,581 | 1,072 | 4,887 | 1,142 |
- Average growth rate, %/year | 1.20 | 1.30 | |||
- Natural increase rate, %/year | 1.00 | 0.90 | |||
- Mechanical increase rate, %/year | 0.20 | 0.40 | |||
II | Villages: | ||||
1 | North Russia Village | 527 | 111 | 562 | 118 |
2 | Lien Hoa Village | 430 | 96 | 459 | 102 |
3 | Bac Dong I Village | ||||
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495 | 138 | 528 | 147 | ||
4 | Bac Dong II Village | 542 | 142 | 578 | 151 |
5 | Na Bo Village | 275 | 60 | 293 | 64 |
6 | Son Hong Village | 354 | 65 | 378 | 69 |
7 | Hop Tan Village | 538 | 120 | 574 | 128 |
8 | Co Luong Village | 582 | 148 | 621 | 158 |
9 | Po Cai Village | 428 | 96 | 457 | 103 |
10 | Sa Cao Village | 410 | 102 | 437 | 102 |
3.3.2.2. Labor forecast
The number of laborers in the commune in 2015 was 3023 people, forecasted to be 3225 people by 2020. Of which, laborers in the agricultural sector accounted for about 82.63% in 2015, equivalent to about 2498 workers, and by 2020, about 2665 workers.
- See details in appendix table 3.3.
Table 3.3. Labor forecast
TT
Category | Current Status | Planning | |
2015 | 2020 | ||
I | Working age population (people) | 3023 | 3225 |
- Percentage of population | 66.0% | 65.99% | |
II | Total labor force working in economic sectors (People) | 3023 | 3225 |
- Percentage of working age population | |||
By industry: | |||
2.1 | Agricultural and forestry workers (people) | 2498 | 2665 |
- Percentage of working labor | 82.63% | 82.64% | |
2.2 | Industrial, handicraft and construction workers (people) | 71 | 76 |
- Percentage of working labor | 2.35% | 2.36% | |
2.3 | Service, trade, and HCSN workers (people) | 454 | 484 |
- Percentage of working labor | 15.01% | 15.02% | |
III | Housewife, disabled, students of working age | ||
- Percentage of working age population | |||
IV | Unemployment | ||
- Percentage of working age population |
3.3.2.3. Land use planning forecast
a) Non-agricultural land use planning
The total area of non-agricultural land by 2020 will be stable at 588.82 hectares, an increase of 527.2 hectares compared to 2015 and accounting for 15.99% of the natural land area. Of which:
Table 3.4. Forecast of non-agricultural land use planning
STT
Target | Current Status | Planning periods | |||||
First period, by 2016 | Last period, by 2020 | ||||||
Acreage (ha) | Structure (%) | Acreage (ha) | Structure (%) | Acreage (ha) | Structure (%) | ||
(1) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
TOTAL LAND AREA NATURAL | 3681.81 | 100.00 | 3681.81 | 100.00 | 3681.81 | 100.00 | |
Land of flight agriculture | 61.62 | 1.67 | 588.82 | 15.99 | 588.82 | 15.99 | |
1 | Residential land countryside | 19.23 | 0.52 | 20.83 | 0.57 | 20.83 | 0.57 |
2 | Urban land market | 0 | 0.00 | 98.29 | 2.67 | 98.29 | 2.67 |
3 | Land for construction of headquarters and works career | 0.07 | 0.002 | 6.70 | 0.18 | 6.70 | 0.18 |
4 | Country room | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19.00 | 0.52 | 19.00 | 0.52 |
5 | Safe land security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.027 | 1.00 | 0.027 |
6 | Land for production and business facilities business | 0.21 | 0.006 | 40.00 | 1.09 | 40.00 | 1.09 |
7 | Land for processing reason, bury | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | 0.27 | 10.00 | 0.27 |
fill hazardous waste | |||||||
8 | Land area industrial | 0.00 | 0.00 | 51.90 | 1.41 | 51.90 | 1.41 |
9 | Land for mineral activities product | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
10 | Land for production of ceramic building materials porcelain | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
11 | Land of famous relics win | 1.98 | 0.05 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 1.98 | 0.05 |
12 | Land of worship religion | 1.00 | 0.027 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 3.00 | 0.08 |
13 | Land of meaning cemetery | 1.20 | 0.03 | 21.20 | 0.58 | 21.20 | 0.58 |
14 | Land development infrastructure development | 25.32 | 0.69 | 248.98 | 6.76 | 248.98 | 6.76 |
15 | Non-agricultural land remaining | 0.00 | 0.00 | 43.00 | 1.17 | 43.00 | 1.17 |
16 | Land with specialized water surface use | 12.61 | 0.34 | 12.61 | 0.34 | 12.61 | 0.34 |
* Residential land: To meet the demand for residential land, it is expected that by 2020 the whole commune will need about 119.12 hectares of land for residential purposes, including:
+ Urban land: 98.29ha;
+ Rural residential land: 20.83ha;
* Specialized land: Currently, the area of specialized land is 27.58 hectares. In order to meet the demand as well as arrange land funds for specialized purposes... it is expected that by 2020, the whole commune will need about 389.89 hectares of specialized land, an increase of 362.31 hectares compared to 2015, of which:
- Land for construction of agency headquarters and public works: 6.70ha;
- Defense land: 19.00ha;
- Security land: 1.00ha;
- Land for production and business facilities: 91.90ha;
- Land used for public purposes: 271.29ha, including:
+ Land for infrastructure development: 248.98ha;
+ Land for treatment and burial of hazardous waste: 10.00ha;
+ Land of historical relics and scenic spots: 1.98ha;
+ Tourist area land: 10.33ha;
* Religious and belief land: 3.00ha;
* Cemetery land: 21.20ha;
* Remaining non-agricultural land: 43.00ha;
* Land with specialized water surface: 12.61ha;
b) Agricultural land use planning
To meet the socio-economic development goals in general and the agricultural sector of the commune in particular, it is expected that by 2020 the whole commune will need about 3068.49 hectares of land for agricultural development purposes, including:
- Rice land: 71.54ha;
- Protective forest land: 535.82ha;
- Production forest land: 2456.98ha;
- Aquaculture land: 4.15ha.
c) Unused land:
By 2020, the area of unused land in the commune will be 24.50 hectares, accounting for 0.67% of the total natural area. This area has decreased by 25.50 hectares compared to the current status in 2015. This area has decreased due to conversion to the following types of land:
- Production forest land 10.00ha;
- Cultural land 1.50ha;
- Urban land 14.00ha;
3.3.2.4. Allocation of non-agricultural land groups
* Residential land:
- Rural residential land : By 2020, the rural residential land area will be 20.83ha. This area has increased by 1.60ha compared to the current status in 2015. This area has increased due to conversion from the following types of land:
+ Production forest land is 0.99ha;
+ The remaining annual crop land is 0.61ha.
- Urban land : By 2020, the urban land area will be 98.29 hectares (Land in the new Cao Loc town). This area increased by 98.29 hectares compared to the current status in 2015. This area increased due to conversion from the following types of land:
+ Rice land 65.40ha;
+ Land for perennial crops 3.00ha;
+ Production forest land is 15.00ha;
+ Land for building agency headquarters and public works is 0.07ha;
+ Land for production and business facilities is 0.21ha;
+ Land for infrastructure development is 0.61ha;
+ Unused land is 14.00ha;
* Land for headquarters of public works and public works:
Currently, the land area for agency headquarters and public works is 0.07ha. In the coming time, it is necessary to invest in building new headquarters for agencies because the old headquarters is located in the planning area of the new Cao Loc town. By 2020, the land area for agency headquarters and public works is 6.70ha, accounting for 1.46% of the non-agricultural land area. This area increased by 6.63ha compared to the current status in 2015.
- This area increased due to the following land types being converted:
+ Rice land 6.60ha;
+ Remaining annual land 0.10ha;
3.3.2.5. Allocation of agricultural land groups
Based on the current land use status and future land use needs of the commune, calculating the need to convert land use purposes between land types as well as the ability to reclaim and increase cropping intensity in the coming time, the agricultural land area will be developed as follows: By 2020, the agricultural land area will be 3068.49 hectares, accounting for 83.34% of the total natural area, this area decreased by 501.70 hectares compared to the current status in 2015. Of which:
* Rice land : By 2020, the rice land area will be 71.54 hectares, accounting for 2.33% of the agricultural land area. This area will decrease by 205.20 hectares compared to the current status in 2015 because this land is located in the new town planning area.
- This area is reduced due to conversion to the following land types: