MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
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NGUYEN THI ANH TUYET
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FACTORS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANKS
MASTER'S THESIS IN ECONOMICS
HCMC, 2015
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
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NGUYEN THI ANH TUYET
FACTORS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANKS
Major: BANKING FINANCE Major code: 60340201
MASTER'S THESIS IN ECONOMICS
SCIENTIFIC INSTRUCTOR: ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DR. TRAM THI XUAN HUONG
HCMC, 2015
COMMITMENT
My name is Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet, author of the graduation thesis "Factors affecting profitability at Vietnamese joint stock commercial banks".
I hereby certify that the content of this thesis is the result of my personal research under the guidance of Associate Professor, Dr. Tram Thi Xuan Huong. The data used for running the model is honest, collected by the author himself and has a clear and transparent origin; other data for analysis, comments and evaluation are collected from various cited sources and are listed in the reference section.
Ho Chi Minh City, date month year He pledged
Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet
INDEX
Cover Page Pledge Table of Contents
List of abbreviations List of tables List of graphs INTRODUCTION
1. Reasons for choosing topic 1
2. Research objective 2
3. Research object and scope 2
4. Research method 2
5. Meaning of topic 3
6. Structure of the thesis 4
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF FACTORS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY AT COMMERCIAL BANKS
1.1 Overview of profitability at commercial banks 5
1.1.1 Concept 5
1.1.2 Meaning 6
1.1.3 Determine profitability 7
1.1.3.1 Return on Assets (ROA) 7
1.1.3.2 Return on equity (ROE) 8
1.1.3.3 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 8
1.1.3.4 Net interest margin (NIM) 8
1.2 Factors affecting profitability at commercial banks 9
1.2.1 Internal factors of the bank 9
1.2.1.1 Bank size (Bank size - SIZE) 9
1.2.1.2 Owner's Equity (Capital - CA) 10
1.2.1.3 Customer deposits (Deposits - DP) 10
1.2.1.4 Customer loans (Loans - LOAN) 11
1.2.1.5 Liquidity (Liquidity - LQD) 11
1.2.1.6 Nonperforming loan (NPL) 12
1.2.1.7 Credit risk 12
1.2.2 Factors outside the bank 13
1.2.2.1 Inflation (INF) 13
1.2.2.2 Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) Annual Growth Rate 14
1.2.2.3 Market Capitalization of listed companies (MC) 14
1.2.2.4 Real interest rate (RI) 15
1.3 Overview of previous empirical studies 15
1.3.1 Empirical studies in the world 15
1.3.2 Empirical studies in Vietnam 20
CHAPTER 1 CONCLUSION 24
CHAPTER 2: CURRENT STATE OF PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANKS
2.1 Current status of business activities at Vietnamese commercial banks 25
2.2 Current status of profitability at Vietnamese commercial banks 30
2.3 Current status of factors affecting profitability at Vietnamese commercial banks 32
2.4 General assessment of profitability at Vietnamese commercial banks 37
2.4.1 Profitability Trend 37
2.4.2 Achievements 41
2.4.3 Limitations of profitability at Vietnamese commercial banks 42
2.4.4 Causes of limitation 44
CHAPTER 2 CONCLUSION 44
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH ON FACTORS AFFECTING PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANKS
3.1 Introduction to research model 46
3.1.1 Research sample 46
3.1.2 Research data 46
3.1.3 Variables in the regression model 46
3.1.3.1 Dependent variable 46
3.1.3.2 Independent variables 47
a. Group of independent variables within bank 47
b. Independent variables group outside the bank 50
3.1.4 Research model 52
3.1.5 Research methods 53
3.1.5.1 Descriptive statistical analysis 53
3.1.5.2 Correlation analysis 54
3.1.5.3 Regression analysis 54
3.1.5.4 ANOVA test of model adequacy 55
3.1.5.5 Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation 55
3.1.5.6 Multicollinearity test 55
3.2 Model results and discussion of results 56
3.2.1 Descriptive statistical analysis of variables and correlation coefficient matrix 56
3.2.2 Regression analysis results 56
3.2.2.1 Regression analysis results of Model 1 – ROA and factors
influencing factor 56
3.2.2.2 Regression analysis results of Model 2 – ROE and factors
factor 58
3.2.2.3 Regression analysis results of Model 3 – ROCE and influencing factors 59
3.2.2.4 Regression analysis results of Model 4 – NIM and factors
factor 60
3.2.3 ANOVA test of model adequacy 61
3.2.4 Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation 61
3.2.5 Multicollinearity test 62
3.3 Research results 63
CHAPTER 3 CONCLUSION 65
CHAPTER 4: SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE PROFITABILITY AT VIETNAMESE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANKS
4.1 Operational orientation of Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank to 2020 66
4.2 Solution 67
4.2.1 Group of solutions to increase the positive impact of external factors on banks 67
4.2.1.1 For the Government 67
4.2.1.2 For SBV 69
4.2.2 Group of solutions to increase the positive impact of internal factors of banks 70
CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION 72
CONCLUSION 73
REFERENCES APPENDIX