GNP (because the FDI part here is often larger than their investment abroad), the important thing is that the GDP scale reflects more clearly different aspects of the business environment and especially together with the GDP structure, the labor structure of the economy is also reflected more clearly.
To assess more realistically the structural shift of the economy in the process of economic innovation towards industrialization and modernization, the analysis of the structure of sectors (level II, level III...) is very important. Normally, the sub-sector structure reflects more closely the quality and level of modernization of the economy.
Structure of labor working in the economy
In the process of economic innovation and industrialization and modernization, the shift in economic structure is assessed through a very important indicator: how the structure of labor working in the economy is distributed in different production sectors. Economists highly appreciate the indicator of the structure of the labor force working in the economy, because from the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, the social labor structure is the indicator that most closely reflects the level of economic and social success of the industrialization process.
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- Modernization. Because industrialization, in its full sense, is not simply an increase in the value proportion of industrial production, but along with the increasing contribution to GDP of the industrial sector (currently, industry and services are based on modern technology), it must be the process of industrialization and modernization of human social life, in which the most important basis is the number of workers working in the non-agricultural sector accounting for an increasingly high proportion of the total labor force working in the economy.
The labor structure by industry is highly appreciated and valued by economists because this indicator not only reflects more accurately the level of
The industrial transformation of a country is less affected by external factors. In some economies, while the proportion of non-agricultural labor (especially in the industrial production sector) is still small, it accounts for a much larger proportion in the GDP structure. To explain this phenomenon, economists have pointed out the "distortion" of prices, especially in cases where there is a large price difference between industrial products and services compared to agricultural products. Therefore, the GDP structure between economic sectors sometimes does not accurately reflect the actual state of economic structural transformation.
The importance of labor structure transformation is even considered by some economists as the most decisive indicator to evaluate the success of the industrialization process in comparative studies between economies. For example, Iungho Yoo (KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Korea) compared the industrialization period between countries based on a single criterion: considering agricultural labor accounting for 50% of the total social labor and ending when the proportion of agricultural labor is only 20% of the total social labor.
There may still be debates about the starting and ending points of the industrial process from this perspective, but the approach here is to start from the indicator of labor structure shift in the correlation between the proportion of agricultural and non-agricultural labor to evaluate the industrialization process.[37, pp.39-40].
Export structure
In the context of innovation in an industrialized economy, the structure of export goods is also considered one of the important criteria to evaluate the success of the economic restructuring process towards industrialization and modernization. The common law of the process
Industrialization (for most developing countries today) originates from an agricultural economy, where agricultural production accounts for a large proportion of the GDP structure and the number of agricultural workers accounts for the largest part of the total social labor force and therefore, in the small total export value they have, a very large part is agricultural products or products of the mining industry in the form of raw materials (unprocessed or only in the form of primary processing). Meanwhile, the demand for importing machinery, equipment, technology, and raw materials to serve the industrial development process is very large, so the scarcity and shortage of foreign currency is always a chronic weakness.
Most countries that have gone through the industrialization process to become a developed industrial country have basically gone through a common model in production structure and export structure: from mainly producing and exporting primary products to processed industrial products, initially products of the processing industry that use a lot of labor and low technology such as assembly, textile products, processed agricultural, forestry and fishery products... gradually shifting to products that use a lot of high technology such as mechanical products, chemicals, electronics, etc. Therefore, the shift in export structure, from primary products to processed products based on high technology - technology is always considered one of the very important measures to evaluate the level of success of industrialization and modernization. Furthermore, for many underdeveloped countries, because national technical standards are often lower than international technical standards, the structure of export products (accepted by the international market) will be a good criterion to supplement the assessment of the results of the economic restructuring process towards industrialization and modernization.
At the same time, with the value structure of export products, the structure of direct and indirect labor resources participating in manufacturing export products is also meaningful in analyzing and evaluating the process of shifting the structure of social labor resources.
In summary, when analyzing and evaluating the process of economic restructuring, economists often use the main indicators including GDP structure, labor structure, and export structure for consideration. The level of detail, specificity, and approaches of these analyses depend primarily on the requirements of the assessment objectives, available sources of documents, and many other factors. Each of the above criteria contains a certain economic significance in analyzing the process of economic restructuring in the period of industrialization and modernization.
Another group of indicators contributes to assessing the effectiveness of the economic structure as a result of the structure of social resource allocation, first of all, the investment structure. These are indicators of economic growth rate, social labor productivity, ICOR index, energy consumption per unit of GDP created, number of new jobs created, unemployment rate, poverty reduction rate... These indicators are inherently synthetic indicators analyzing the economic development situation of the country, but to a certain extent, they contribute significantly to assessing the effectiveness of the economic structure being built of an economy.[37, pp. 40-43].
1.2.2.2. Factors affecting the shift in economic structure As mentioned above, the shift in economic structure takes place under certain impacts, including both objective and subjective factors. Therefore, the factors affecting the shift in economic structure include:
Natural conditions : abundant natural resources (minerals, seafood, forest products, water resources...) and favorable natural conditions (climate, weather, coastline...) create conditions for the development of industries, tourism, fisheries.
industry and agriculture. Karl Marx himself wrote: "Any social production is the appropriation of natural objects by humans within a certain social form". However, the exploitation of these factors to serve the development and restructuring of the economic sector depends on many subjective and objective factors. Normally, at each stage of development, people focus on exploiting resources with advantages, large reserves, high economic value, large and stable market demand. Thus, the diversity and abundance of natural resources and natural conditions have an impact on the process of forming and restructuring the economic sector, and are factors that must be taken into account in the process of planning structural strategies.
Population and labor are considered important resources for economic development. In particular, population structure and educational level, population size and their income are the factors that affect the process of formation and economic restructuring. In addition, the development of traditional occupations in industry as well as in other economic sectors is often associated with the customs, traditions and habits of a locality. The products of these occupations are mostly unique, advantageous and popular in the international market. The development and transformation of these occupations are closely linked to the team of artisans. Therefore, this factor also affects the economic restructuring of a locality.
Geographical location is also a factor that must be considered when forming and orienting the transformation of economic sectors. This factor becomes important in the conditions of building an open economy and strengthening the expansion of international economic relations.
Scientific and technological progress not only creates new production capabilities, accelerates the development of some industries, increases their proportion in the overall economy (shifts the economic structure), but also creates
New needs arise, requiring the emergence of a number of young, advanced technology industries such as oil and gas, electronics... thus having strong development prospects in the future.
In the context of openness and integration, scientific and technological advances allow the creation of new high-quality products, lower business costs, and create competitiveness in the domestic and international markets. Therefore, it will promote the general economic restructuring towards export, import substitution, and integration into the regional and world economic life.
The role of the State includes policies, management mechanisms, and socio-economic development strategies in each period, which greatly influence the process of economic restructuring.
In the process of economic restructuring (in whatever direction), the State plays a decisive role. First, the State builds and decides on strategies and plans for socio-economic development to achieve the country's overall socio-economic goals. These are essentially development orientations, orientations for allocating investment resources by sector and by region. Second, through the legal system, policies... the State encourages or restricts, even puts pressure on enterprises and investors to develop production and business according to the direction determined by the State.
In a country, the synchronization and stability of the institutional environment are important for the process of forming and transforming the industry structure, economic component structure and territorial structure of the economy.
The trend of internationalization of economic life such as foreign economic relations and cooperation in international division of labor. Due to the difference in production conditions in the country, it requires the exchange of labor results with the outside at different levels and scopes. In international exchange, each country and each region promotes its comparative advantages on the basis of specialization in
industries and fields with relatively low costs. Specialization has promoted the development of the social division of labor and as a result, transformed the economic sector structure. Obviously, the context of globalization has created many opportunities for our country but also many challenges. Therefore, shifting the economic sector structure towards integration means overcoming those challenges to seize opportunities to create a new, more suitable, progressive and effective economic sector structure.
In the current conditions of internationalization and regionalization of economic life, the economic structure of a country is also affected by the economic structure of countries in the region. Generalizing that interaction, economists have pointed out some important characteristics of the wave-like change in economic structure. When analyzing the economic growth process of Japan, based on long-term statistics, Kamane Akamatsu used the term "Flying wild geese" to describe the continuous growth of industries in the economic structure, considered both in terms of quantity and cyclical changes in the import and export process. In 1963, combining Akamatsu's analysis with Vesnon's product cycle, Kojima renamed the "Flying wild geese" model as the "Product Catch-up Cycle" model. This model reflects a vivid reality called “Spillover Effect” of economic structure from countries at higher levels of development to lower levels of development. Practical observation shows that when Japan started and achieved brilliant growth in the 1950s-1960s, four countries that have now become NICs followed suit in the 1960s-1970s; in the 1970s and 1980s, some ASEAN countries followed suit and from the 1980s to the present, the “Spillover Effect” is spreading to China and Vietnam. Obviously, this is a continuous growth process and takes place in a “wave” style.
The level of perfection of the market economy also affects the transformation of economic sectors. Therefore, the formation and synchronous development of domestic markets (goods and services market, capital market, labor market, science and technology market, etc.) have a strong impact on the formation and transformation of economic structure. In a market mechanism with State management, the State creates conditions for synchronous development, regulates types of markets and creates an environment and conditions for markets and production and business activities through macroeconomic policies. The formation and transformation of economic structure in which direction depends on the State's development strategies and orientations in each period, taking into account factors in the context of openness and international integration.
1.3. Experience in economic restructuring in some localities in our country from 1997 to present
Hung Yen and Vinh Phuc are two provinces in the Red River Delta, located in the Northern key economic region. Since the re-establishment of the province (January 1, 1997), these localities have achieved many achievements in economic development, especially Vinh Phuc province. Although each region has its own characteristics, learning from each other's experiences to draw lessons is an important issue in the economic development of each locality, as well as of Bac Ninh.
The following are the basic achievements in economic restructuring in Hung Yen and Vinh Phuc.
1.3.1. Economic structure shift in Hung Yen province
Hung Yen is a province in the Red River Delta, with a favorable geographical location, a natural area of 923.45 km 2 , a population of 1,156 thousand people (2007). The population density of the province is 1,252 people/km 2 , the natural population growth rate is 9.36%/year, the province has completed universalization of lower secondary education in 2007.