Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Program for Stabilizing Agricultural and Forestry Production Associated with Product Processing

and efficiency assessment criteria. The thesis will calculate the efficiency of each program for each economic zone to obtain a picture of the overall investment efficiency for program investment activities in economic zones.

On that basis we will evaluate the overall effectiveness of investment projects in economic zones.

4.3.1.1. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the program to stabilize agricultural and forestry production associated with product processing

The main purpose of the agricultural and forestry production stabilization program associated with product processing is to create sustainable development for a residential area, for example, investing in areas that stimulate local economic development, providing technical support to local people, etc., such as supporting post-harvest processing by building agricultural processing factories, disseminating and instructing on the use of agricultural products, creating demonstration models of production, harvesting, and preservation of agricultural products suitable to local conditions, etc.

The benefit of the program is to increase the value of agricultural products, thereby improving people's lives. The cost of the program is all the costs incurred to carry out activities that satisfy the requirements of the program.

Research on 15 economic zones has shown that the program has had certain results. Although the investment efficiency is not high compared to other economic zones, the results of the program are encouraging for remote areas.

When analyzing the effectiveness of this program, we can use two criteria to determine the effectiveness of production and business projects such as NPV and IRR because this program mainly brings financial benefits. The analysis is conducted with a general discount rate of 6% suitable for the conditions of projects in remote areas.

The results of the analysis and evaluation for each economic zone are shown in Table 4.4 "Investment capital and investment efficiency of the program to stabilize agricultural and forestry production associated with product processing in economic zones in the period 2000-2005".

Thus, based on the analysis results, it can be seen that some economic zones such as Mau Son, Bac Hai Son, Quang Ha - Mong Cai, and Army Corps 15 have more favorable conditions, so the program is more effective. Other economic zones have less favorable conditions, so the effectiveness is still not high. Overall, the program is

The program has been effective with an IRR = 10%, equivalent to commercial bank interest rates (higher than the country's overall GDP growth rate).

4.3.1.2. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the afforestation program in national defense economic zones

During the period from 2000 to 2005, afforestation was carried out in 8 economic zones. Because the afforestation was carried out sporadically over the years and in different zones, it would be unreasonable to evaluate each zone separately (because some zones have finished afforestation, while others have just started). In analyzing the effectiveness of the afforestation program, we only evaluate the effectiveness of the investment in the program from 2000 to 2005 and therefore only analyze the revenues or costs arising from the investment activities during this period. The results of the analysis of the program's effectiveness in the period 2000-2005 are shown in Table 4.5 "Evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementation of the afforestation program in economic zones".

Table 4.4. Investment capital and investment efficiency of the program to stabilize agricultural and forestry production associated with product processing in national economic zones

period 2000 - 2005

Unit: Million VND


Year

Economic Zone

2003

2004

2005

IRR

NPV

(r=6%)

Actual investment capital

Mau Son

0

400

300

8%

90.38

Bao Lac - Bao Lam






Muong Cha

2 000

996

0

8%

492.13

Vi Xuyen






Ma River

0

400

300

13%

374.60

North Sea Mountain

0

0

390

9%

79.69

Binh Lieu-Quang Ha-Mong Cai

0

400

0

8%

45.69

Khe Sanh

0

400

0

8%

45.69

A So-A Net

0

0

399

9%

70.69

Ky Son

0

400

0

9%

76.45

Bu Gia Phuc-Bu Gia Map






Quang Son






15th Corps

0

0

950

15%

522.42

16th Corps






Tan Hong






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Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Program for Stabilizing Agricultural and Forestry Production Associated with Product Processing


Plus (common program)

2 000

2 996

2 339

9%

1797.75

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and author's processing

Note: The program is effective up to 2015.

From Table 4.5, we can determine the effectiveness criteria of the afforestation program as follows: NPV (with r = 6%) = 149,429 million VND; IRR = 18.2%. These results show that the afforestation program is completely effective. The analysis table also shows that the investment will be truly effective if after the investment in new planting brings results, it is necessary to continue investing in forest care and protection. If forest care and protection is considered a profession and a worker can manage 10 hectares of forest in 1 year, their income will be about 15 to 20 million/year (compared to the current income of 3.5 million VND/household). This is considered a high income for remote areas when economic conditions are still very difficult. On the other hand, when calculating the revenue for 1 hectare of exploited forest is 100 million VND, which is equivalent to only about 20 m3 of average exploited wood (in reality, the volume of exploited wood will be higher) but the program is still very effective, then we can conclude about the effectiveness of the forest planting program of investment projects in the national economic zone.

Table 4.5. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the afforestation program in the national economic zones



Year

Invest


(million VND)

New planting area

(ha)`

Revenue


(million VND)

Operating costs

(million VND)

Cash flow


(million VND)

2000

1 556

601



-1 556

2001

2 150

902


2103.5

-4 254

2002

2 389

809


5260.5

-7 650

2003

4 651

1 106


8092

-12 743

2004

7 055

1 130


11963

-19 018

2005

8 470

1 795


15918

-24 388

2006



0

22200.5

-22 201

2007



0

22200.5

-22 201

2008



0

22200.5

-22 201

2009



0

22200.5

-22 201


2010



60100

20097

40 003

2011



90200

16940

73 260

2012



80900

14108.5

66 792

2013



110600

10237.5

100 363

2014



113000

6282.5

106 718

2015



179500

0

179 500

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and compiled by the author

Note: Forest care and protection cost/1ha/year: 3.5 million VND

Revenue for 1 hectare of exploited forest: 100 million VND

4.3.1.3. Evaluation of the effectiveness of clean water and rural sanitation programs in defense economic zones

In fact, the program has only been implemented in 3 favorable economic zones: Mau Son, Bac Hai Son, Quang Ha-Mong Cai. The clean water program is essentially state support for people in economic zones, thereby stabilizing their lives, improving their health and becoming more attached to the locality. With this program, the efficiency is calculated based on cost reduction (investment rate) for a unit of investment result.

The investment situation according to the program in these 3 economic zones is as follows:

Table 4.6. Investment in rural clean water and sanitation programs in national economic zones



Economic Zone

Total estimate

Actual investment capital

Number of households using water

clean


2002


2003


2004


2005

million

VND

million

VND

million

VND

million

VND

million

VND

household

Mau Son

1 531

500

852



320

North Sea Mountain

2 500


280

600

1 588

542

Binh Lieu-Quang Ha-Mong Cai

2 637

800

1 000

560


510

Full program

6 668

1 300

2 132

1 160

1 588

1 372

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and compiled by the author

Based on the above table, we calculate some criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the clean water program as follows (see table 4.7):

Thus, the reality shows that the investment in the program is more economical than the estimate (the entire program saves 488 million VND). In addition, because the number of households enjoying clean water is higher than expected, the investment capital for a household with clean water is relatively low, the entire program is 4.5 million VND. If converted to the level of 2000 with an interest rate of 6%, the entire program saves 399 million VND and the investment capital for a household with clean water is 3.68 million VND.

Overall, the investment results of the program are good, however, it should be noted that the program has only invested in more favorable areas. In reality, other economic zones also need investment in clean water and environmental sanitation. If the program were to reach these areas, the effectiveness would be lower because the costs would increase significantly.

Table 4.7. Investment efficiency according to the rural clean water and sanitation program in the economic zones



Economic Zone


Total estimate


Actual investment capital

Savings over budget

Actual to budget ratio

Number of households using water

clean


VDT rate for one household

million VND

million VND

million VND

%

Household

million VND

Mau Son

1531

1 352

179

88.31

320

4.23

North Sea Mountain

2500

2 468

32

98.72

542

4.55

Binh Lieu-Quang Ha-Mong Cai

2637

2 360

277

89.50

510

4.63

Full program

6668

6 180

488

92.68

1372

4.5

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and compiled by the author.

4.3.1.4. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the migration program (migration career) in defense economic zones

The economic zones are often located in unfavorable locations with sparse population. To develop the economy and ensure national security, it is necessary to migrate from many places. The migration program to the economic zones is aimed at both local and foreign residents. The costs of the activities in the migration program are often very expensive. It includes costs for travel, housing settlement, financial support, salary support, etc.

real, improve fields for cultivation.

The migration program in the economic zones has been implemented since 2003. After 3 years of implementation, 5,234 households have been migrated. Specific data for each region are shown in Table 4.8 "Results of the migration program (migration career) in the economic zones".

Investment capital for each economic zone serving the immigration program is specifically shown in Table 4.9 "Investment capital for the immigration program (immigration career ) in economic zones".

Because migration is a non-profit investment activity, to evaluate the investment efficiency of implementing the migration program (migration career) in the economic zones, we will calculate similarly to the clean water program, which is the investment capital to create an output value (migration households) and the efficiency for the people themselves according to the program, which is that their lives will be improved compared to before migration (see table 4.10).

Table 4.8. Results of the migration program (migration career) in defense economic zones



Economic Zone

Number of households

2003

2004

2005

Add

Intra-provincial

Out of province

Intra-provincial

Out of province

Intra-provincial

Out of province

Intra-provincial

Out of province


Total

Mau Son



11

70

100

15

111

85

196

Bao Lac-Bao Lam



349

33

173

20

522

53

575

Muong Cha



69

75

200

25

269

100

369

Vi Xuyen



52

50



52

50

102

Ma River



125

25

135

98

260

123

383

Binh Lieu-Quang Ha-Mong Cai


69


64


212


173


150


70


431


307


738

ASo-ANet

150

30

120

15

60

15

330

60

390

Khe Sanh

70

34

20

130

250

65

340

229

569

Ky Son

50



100

60

40

110

140

250

North Sea Mountain

23






23


23

Tan Hong



287

52

350

84

637

136

773


Quang Son




150

100


100

150

250

15th Corps




100


180


280

280

16th Corps




100


236


336

336

Add

362

128

1245

1073

1578

848

3185

2049

5234

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and compiled by the author.

The evaluation results in Table 4.10 show that the investment capital for a migrant household is not high, for the whole program it is 7.8 million VND, and for a settled household it is 8.5 million VND (corresponding figures converted to 2000 are 6.38 million VND and 6.96 million VND). This is a relatively low expense compared to the expenses that need to be incurred when migrating such as travel expenses, housing settlement, financial support, food support, land improvement for cultivation, etc. as mentioned above.

Table 4.9. Investment capital to implement the migration program (migration career) in the national economic zones


Economic Zone

Implemented capital (million VND)

2003

2004

2005

Add

Household expenses

Management fee

Household expenses

Management fee

Household expenses

Management fee


Household expenses

Management fee


Total


Mau Son



1 445

14

800

10

2 245

24

2 269


Bao Lac-Bao Lam



1 695

6

1 265

10

2 960

16

2 976


Muong Cha



1 332

15

1 500

10

2 832

25

2 857


Vi Xuyen



1 260

10



1 260

10

1 270


Ma River



750

5

1 875

20

2 625

25

2 650

Binh Lieu - Quang Ha - M. Cai


404


10


4 296


34


2 150


15


6 850


59


6 909


ASo-ANet

507

13

585

6

405

10

1 497

29

1 526


Khe Sanh

189

5

2 010

20

1 725

13

3 924

38

3 962


Ky Son

135

4

1 500

18

780

10

2 415

32

2 447


North Sea Mountain

178

4





178

4

182


Tan Hong



806

10

2 310

16

3 116

26

3 142


Quang Son



770

10

300

15

1 070

25

1 095


15th Army Corps



1 500

10

2 700

20

4 200

30

4 230



16th Army Corps



1 500

10

3 540

20

5 040

30

5 070


Management of the Ministry of National Defense


109


392


284


785

785

Add

1 413

145

19 449

560

19 350

453

40 212

1158

41 370

Source: Department of Economics, Ministry of National Defense and compiled by the author.


To assess the level of improvement in the lives of households after migration, it is theoretically necessary to determine the living standards of each household before migration and compare them with the current income of the households. However, this cannot be done because the number of households is very large and located in many different regions. It is possible to assess the level of improvement in the lives of households after migration through the criterion of the percentage of households continuing to settle in the economic zones. According to the calculated data, this rate is relatively high (over 90%), with some areas reaching 98%.

Table 4.10. Evaluation of investment efficiency in implementing the migration program (migration career) in the national economic zones


Economic Zone

Realized investment capital (million)

VND)

Number of immigrant households


(Household)

Number of households still residing

(Household)

Investment rate for one household (million)

VND)

Investment rate for a settled household

(Million VND)

Mau Son

2 269

196

192

11,577

11,813

Bao Lac-Bao Lam

2 976

575

518

5,176

5,751

Muong Cha

2 857

369

332

7,743

8,603

Vi Xuyen

1 270

102

92

12,451

13,835

Ma River

2 650

383

345

6,919

7,688

Binh Lieu-Quang Ha-Mong Cai

6 909

738

735

9,362

9,401

ASo-ANet

1 526

390

351

3,913

4,348

Khe Sanh

3 962

569

512

6,963

7,737

Ky Son

2 447

250

225

9,788

10,876

North Sea Mountain

182

23

22

7,913

8,273

Tan Hong

3 142

773

696

4,065

4,516

Quang Son

1 095

250

225

4,381

4,867

15th Army Corps

4 230

280

252

15,107

16,786

16th Army Corps

5 070

336

302

15,089

16,766

Management of the Ministry of National Defense

785





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