Home / Trading

Developing non-financial commodity derivatives trading in Vietnam - 12


Regarding export rice prices: it can be seen that over the years, rice prices do not fluctuate much, mainly inversely proportional to the quantity of exported rice, meaning rice prices will be high if the export rice output is low and rice prices will be low if the export rice output is high.


Source: Vinanet, 2014

Maybe you are interested!


Chart 2.5: Vietnam's rice exports (tons) and average price (USD/ton) 2010-2013


During the year from June 2012 to June 2013, the export price of rice did not fluctuate much and was around 400 USD/ton. However, the export price of rice continued to decrease, the average price in the first 7 months of 2013 was only 438.49 USD/ton, down 3.2% compared to the same period in 2012. Vietnam still has to face a paradox, although it ranks first or second in the world in rice export, the selling price and export price are very low.

Regarding rice export position: according to statistics over many years, Vietnam, Thailand and India are the 3 countries with the largest rice export turnover in the world, the order may be different each year depending on the rice production of each country. India was the largest rice exporter in the world in 2013, the second consecutive year of rice according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This organization also adjusted up the forecast of India's rice exports.


in 2013 to about 8.3 million tons, up about 10% compared to the estimate of about 7.5 million tons given in January 2013. Vietnam and Thailand maintained their positions as the world's second and third largest rice exporters in 2013.


Source: Industry and Trade Newspaper, 2013


Chart 2.6: Strong rice exporting countries in the world 2011-2013


Regarding rice export markets: Vietnam's largest rice export market is still Asia, followed by Africa and America.


Source: Vietnam Food Association, 2013


Chart 2.7: Vietnam's main rice export markets in 2013


China remains Vietnam's largest rice export market. The volume of rice exported to this market in the first 7 months of 2013 grew strongly, reaching over 1.47 million tons with a value of 609.13 million USD, accounting for 32.8% of total export turnover. Compared to the same period in 2012, the volume and value of rice exported to the Chinese market increased by 9.6% and 6.8% respectively. The volume of rice exported to Singapore, Angola, Ghana and Hong Kong also increased strongly, up 62.8%, 23.1%, 28.4% and 17.3% respectively. In short, rice is a key export item of Vietnam, the annual rice export output is very high and Vietnam also focuses on developing this industry very strongly such as improving rice varieties, improving farming conditions, ensuring rice growing area, etc. However, Vietnamese rice has two problems with price, one is not being able to proactively control the price of rice, two is that the price of Vietnamese rice is often lower than the average price of rice in the world.

2.1.1.2 Coffee


Regarding coffee export prices: Coffee prices have fluctuated greatly over the years. In January 2008, coffee prices were very high, around 120 cents/lb, then they continuously decreased and hit bottom in May 2010.


Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs (2013)


Chart 2.8: Fluctuation of Robusta coffee prices from 2008 to 2013


at around 70 cents/lb, from which coffee prices rose again and reached a short-term peak a year later, in May 2011 at prices equivalent to January 2008. From 2011 to March 2013, coffee prices decreased and fluctuated around 100 cents/lb. Coffee prices fluctuate depending on the amount of coffee supplied, the world economic situation and the demand for coffee. The price of Vietnamese Robusta coffee is often lower than the world price of Robusta coffee because the quality of Vietnamese coffee often does not meet the prescribed standards.

Regarding coffee export output: Vietnam's coffee export output is usually the highest in January, February, March, December and does not fluctuate much from April to November. In 2012 and 2013, from January to May, Vietnam's coffee export output was very high, about 150 thousand tons per month, then the export output gradually decreased in the last months of the two years, about 100 thousand tons per month. Coffee export output mainly depends on the coffee demand from Vietnam's traditional markets.



Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs (2013)


Chart 2.9: Statistics on quantity and price of Vietnam's coffee exports 2012-2013


Regarding coffee export market share: Vietnam has always been a country with a high coffee export output in the world. During the period of 1 year from July 2012 to June 2013, Vietnam had a very high coffee export output compared to other strong coffee countries such as Colombia, Honduras, India, Indonesia and only after Brazil. According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in June 2013, Vietnam's coffee export output accounted for 16% of the world's total coffee output. Regarding countries that directly compete with coffee: There is a huge gap between Vietnam and Brazil in terms of coffee export output and value. For more than 10 consecutive years, from 2001 to 2013, Brazil's coffee output was always larger than Vietnam's, however, it must be noted that this gap is gradually decreasing, recognizing the efforts and development of the Vietnamese coffee industry.


Source: General Department of Customs (2014)


Chart 2.10: Statistics of world coffee export quantity 7/2012-6/2013


Regarding Vietnam's coffee export market , the five largest coffee importing countries from Vietnam are Germany, the US, Italy, Spain and Japan, respectively.



Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development 2013


Chart 2.11: Market share of the largest coffee importing countries from Vietnam in 2013 (%)


In the first 5 months of 2013, the two largest coffee consuming markets of Vietnam, Germany (accounting for 12.9% of value) and the US (12.5%), grew well in both volume and value. Specifically, the volume of coffee exported to the US reached 101.7 thousand tons, worth 235.42 million USD, up 30.1% in volume and 24.7% in value over the same period. Coffee exports to Germany reached 118 thousand tons, worth 243.6 million USD, up 52% ​​in volume and 41% in price over the same period.

In short, coffee is a key export product of Vietnam, the export value and output increase over time, the demand for coffee consumption in the world is very large and constantly increasing, so this is an industry with great potential. However, the price of this product often fluctuates due to the impact of supply and demand, Vietnam's coffee output is greatly affected by the weather, so the supply is unstable, the quality is uneven and the rate of meeting international standards is very low, so it is easy to be forced down in price.

2.1.1.3 Rubber


Export rubber price: According to the chart below, it can be seen that Vietnam's export rubber price fluctuates very strongly. The main trend of export rubber price from July 2012 to July 2013 is a sharp decrease.



Source: Vietnam Rubber Association (2014)


Chart 2.12: Export price of Vietnamese rubber from July 2012 - July 2013 (USD/ton)


From 2011 to 2013, Vietnam's rubber exports, although still maintaining growth in volume, decreased in value and especially sharply decreased in price. Specifically, rubber exports in September 2013 reached 115,000 tons, worth 257 million USD, up 8.3% in volume but down 48% in price compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months of the year, Vietnam exported about 726,453 tons of natural rubber, reaching 1,722.7 million USD, with an average unit price of 2,371 USD/ton. According to VRG, rubber export prices continued to decrease with an average in the first quarter of 2013 of 2,685 USD/ton, down 41% compared to the peak in 2011 and down 8% compared to the same period in 2012.

Regarding the output and value of Vietnam's rubber exports: According to the Vietnam Rubber Association, in 2012, Vietnam became the world's fifth largest natural rubber producer with 836,600 tons on a rubber growing area of ​​910,500 hectares. Vietnam also ranked fourth in the world in terms of natural rubber export value, accounting for 10.6% of the world market in 2012. Vietnam's rubber productivity stood at about 1.7 tons of latex/ha, worth VND105 million, ranking third after India and Thailand. Vietnam's rubber exports will reach a value of about USD4.5 billion in 2013, higher than the USD4.26 billion in 2012.



Source: Agromonitor 2014


Chart 2.13: Vietnam's rubber export volume and value 2011-2013


Regarding Vietnam's rubber export market: China is still Vietnam's largest rubber export market, reaching 324,545 tons, worth 741,152,626 USD, down 7.4% in volume and 22% in value compared to the same period last year, accounting for 43% of total export value.



Source: Agromonitor (2014)


Chart 2.14: Structure of Vietnam's rubber export market 2012-2013 (%)

Comment


Agree Privacy Policy *