Viewpoints on Building Solutions for Tourism Development in Ba Ria

Although the transportation system is highly appreciated by tourists, the means of transportation serving tourists on the routes are still lacking, thereby limiting the arising needs of tourists during their journey.

The development of BR-VT tourism contributes to solving employment for workers, stimulating competition in training for tourism staff, positively affecting the formation of related training sectors at university, college, intermediate and vocational levels in the province. However, the quality of training and the ability to attract human resources to serve the BR-VT tourism industry still face many difficulties and limitations.

CHAPTER 3

SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP TOURISM IN BA RIA - VUNG TAU BY 2020

3.1. Perspectives on building solutions for tourism development in Ba Ria - Vung Tau

In the trend of opening up and integrating with the world economy, BR-VT tourism has an important and indispensable position for Vietnam and regional tourism. The development perspective is the consistent direction for the process of planning specific steps and solutions for the macro level of BR-VT tourism.

The orientation to build a tourism development strategy for Ba Ria-Vung Tau province is the Strategy.

Vietnam tourism development and vision to 2020.

Tourism must be the driving economic sector of Ba Ria-Vung Tau province.

The development of the tourism industry will lead to the development of production sectors serving tourism such as: industry, agriculture, trade, services and contribute to strong changes in the economic structure, thereby creating increasingly high income for society. Therefore, Ba Ria-Vung Tau needs to identify tourism and services as the economic sector playing a leading role in the industrialization and modernization process.

In 2000, in the structure of total social product, agriculture accounted for 4.18% (equivalent to 917,673 million VND), industry and construction accounted for 82.38% (equivalent to 18,105,563 million VND), services accounted for 13.44% (equivalent to 2,953,541 million VND). By 2008, the proportion of agriculture accounted for 5.06% (equivalent to 917,673 million VND).

2,440,525 million VND, 2.66 times higher than in 2000), industry and construction accounted for 80.69% (equivalent to 26,897,955 million VND, 1.49 times higher than in 2000), services accounted for 14.25% (equivalent to 5,037,229 million VND, 1.09 times higher than in 2000). Through data analysis, it can be seen that although there has been an increase in the absolute value of the sectors in recent times, in relative terms, the change in the sectoral structure is still unreasonable compared to the trend of decreasing the proportion of the agricultural sector and increasing the proportion of the industrial and service sectors.

Exploit and effectively use internal and external resources to build

tourism development and construction

The main resources to promote development are the potential strengths in resources, tourist markets, human resources, infrastructure and investment capital. However, if we only exploit internal resources without mobilizing and exploiting resources

External factors alone cannot succeed in development because it is external factors that create the ability to maximize the effectiveness of internal resources.

BR-VT tourism industry cannot develop at a fast pace if only relying on internal resources, but the potential of resources, culture, and people, if not invested properly, will also reduce economic efficiency.

Strengthening external resources is the most important factor for the development of tourism in Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on joint ventures, associations, calling for foreign investment capital, investment capital from localities and joint ventures nationwide according to the Law on Foreign Investment and the Law on Domestic Investment.

In recent years, BR-VT has been actively improving the investment environment, creating favorable conditions for the Investment Law to be implemented smoothly in the tourism sector. That is a good signal in fully exploiting the province's tourism potential.

In the process of tourism development, economic benefits must be combined with social benefits, and social issues of the province must be given utmost importance.

The development of tourism in general creates income and employment for a large part of the population, while creating positive issues for culture and society through international contact and regions of the country.

Social development must often be based on economic development. However, the two issues above still have an interaction, to some extent social development can precede economic development. Tourism development makes economic and cultural links increasingly stronger. The development of tourism has a strong impact on the economic structure of the province, increasing the proportion of tourism's contribution to GDP, contributing to reducing the proportion of the agricultural sector in the economic structure of the province. Therefore, in the development process, tourism is an industry that attracts a large number of workers, reduces unemployment, and creates a basic premise for the province's poverty reduction work.

The development of tourism has a strong impact on the distribution of the female workforce - the main workforce working in tourism businesses.

The urgent issue now is to accelerate the process of capital accumulation and concentration to build the material basis for production. The important thing in the development process is not to lose cultural identity, spiritual values that have been forged for hundreds of years. Tourism development is an opportunity to enhance cultural and social values, to have the opportunity to admire

Experience the inherent heritage value, increase the process of cultural communication while still preserving traditional culture - the most attractive factor for tourists.

Developing tourism associated with protecting the ecological environment, preserving cultural heritages and historical relics.

Satisfying tourist needs without harming the environment and natural resources is the main attraction of tourism. Natural resources and cultural heritage are valuable assets that no one has the right to destroy. An equally important factor is the issue of population planning, because without population management, the increased demand for food will deplete natural resources.

The construction of artificial structures also destroys many cultural landscapes. The overall planning of socio-economic development must aim for a balance between structures and the inherent natural beauty, which is a general principle not only for the tourism industry but also for other industries. Therefore, when planning tourism development, it is absolutely necessary to follow the direction of sustainable development, both preserving and embellishing historical relics and ensuring the harmony of the natural beauty that nature bestows.

Revenue from tourism must be re-directed to the restoration of scenic spots, the preservation of historical relics and cultural works. In the early years of development, the tourism industry in Ba Ria - Vung Tau needs to invest a large amount of capital in planning natural areas specifically for tourism.

Expanding exchanges and cooperation to develop international tourism, while paying attention to

focus on developing domestic tourism

Tourism development must focus on meeting the increasing tourism needs of the people, contributing to improving people's knowledge, patriotism, love for the homeland, improving health, and improving people's material and spiritual life.

Expanding the international market is a long-term requirement of the tourism industry, because it is the most important factor for the industry's growth strategy. However, in the early stages, the infrastructure and staff of the Vietnamese tourism industry in general, and BR-VT tourism in particular, were still lacking and weak in expertise, so they could not respond well to the major breakthroughs in the number of international visitors.

The sustainable market for BR-VT tourism is domestic tourism, the source of visitors from neighboring provinces such as Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, ... according to the weekend tours increased rapidly in recent years, which has significantly increased revenue.

industry revenue, so the tourism industry needs to have a specific strategy to attract this source of tourists to help reduce the pressure on the seasonality of the tourism industry.

3.2. Basis for developing solutions for tourism development in BR-VT

In the period 2001-2005, the economy of Ba Ria-Vung Tau province had a structural shift in the direction of gradually reducing the proportion of agriculture and forestry from 4.25% to 3.80% due to the implementation of the overall socio-economic planning, which reduced the area of agricultural land converted to non-agricultural production land and specialized land; The proportion of industry increased from 82.45% to 85.83%, the proportion of service industry decreased from 13.3% to 10.3%, the service sector developed slowly in the process of structural shift in the whole province. In the period 2006-2010, the proportion of service industry tended to increase, which shows that the overall socio-economic development orientation has been effective.

Table 3.1: Economic structure of Ba Ria-Vung Tau province in the period 2001-2008

Economic sector

2000	2001	2005	2006	2007	2008
- Agriculture and forestry	4.18%	4.25%	3.80%	4.41%	4.67%	5.06%
- Industry	82.38%	82.45%	85.83%	83.45%	82.60%	80.69%
- Service	13.44%	13.30%	10.37%	12.14%	12.73%	14.25%

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Source: BR-VT Provincial Statistics Office

The project to adjust the master plan for tourism development in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province until 2010 and orientation to 2020 of the Provincial People's Committee has set out a number of socio-economic goals as follows:

“…The average GDP growth per year in the period 2006 - 2010 reached 11.32% (excluding oil and gas reached 17.49%); in the period 2011 - 2015 reached 11.8% (excluding oil and gas reached 16.58%); in the period 2016 - 2020 reached 11.13% (excluding oil and gas reached 13.35%); By 2020, the economic structure will be: Industry and construction account for 61.55%; Services will increase to about 36.8%; Agriculture, forestry and fishery will account for 1.65% (excluding oil and gas, the corresponding economic structure will be: 53.23%; 44.77%; 2%); Creating a fundamental and comprehensive change in the education and training sector; focusing on vocational training suitable to the socio-economic development needs of the Province; Increase the rate of trained workers to over 50% by 2010 and over 80% by 2020".

3.3. Forecast of some tourism industry indicators in BR-VT until 2020

Based on the synthesis and analysis of data over the years from State management agencies along with the author's survey and synthesis data from tourists and businesses operating in the tourism sector, it can be concluded that: there are many factors that directly affect the business performance of the tourism industry, however, the factors that play an important role in the development of the tourism industry must be mentioned as follows:

 Current and potential tourist markets;

 Characteristics and differences of local tourism products and services;

 Infrastructure serving the tourism industry;

 Quality and level of human resources in the tourism industry.

To forecast economic indicators, the project is carried out through the following steps:

 Step 1, based on the average growth rate of the period 1995–2008 combined with the use of revenue regression method over time to forecast revenue for the following years [Appendix 27] .

 In the second step, after analyzing the suitability of the industry's development trends and selecting revenue indicators, the topic applies the regression method to forecast indicators of the number of visitors, infrastructure investment capital and labor according to tourism industry revenue.

3.3.1. Tourism industry revenue forecast

Revenue forecast based on average growth rate - Option 1 (PA1):

The average growth rate of tourism revenue in BR-VT in the period 1995-2008 was 10.92%. Assuming the growth rate in the period 2010-2020 is 10.92%, it can be forecasted that tourism revenue by 2015 will be 4,342,493 (million VND) and by 2020 will be

7,291,022 (million VND) [Appendix 27] .

Revenue forecasting by regression method - Option 2 (PA2):

Using the regression method of tourism revenue over time in the period 1995-2008 to forecast tourism revenue for the following years.

Regression model: LDT = a*t + b

In there:

LDT: Ln DT (DT: Tourism industry revenue - constant 1994 prices)

t: Time

Regression results [Appendix 21] show that the time variable (t) explains 83.65% of the change in tourism revenue, the average growth rate in the period 1995-2008 is 9.7776%, assuming the average revenue growth rate in the following years remains unchanged, forecasting tourism revenue in 2010: 2,533,373 (million VND); 2015: 4,038,981 (million VND) and 2020: 6,439,385 (million VND):

 Option selection: If we only consider the period 2001-2008, the average growth rate of tourism revenue of Ba Ria-Vung Tau is 15.10%. However, the recent global economic crisis has slowed down the growth rate of the world economy in general and Vietnam in particular, especially greatly affecting the tourism industry's revenue (Vietnam's tourism revenue in 2009 increased by about 9% compared to 2008, while the average growth rate in the period 2000-2007 was 21.5%) [16; Appendix 8] . In addition, when the province's tourism industry has developed its potential, the absolute growth rate of revenue will be high in the following years, but in relative terms, the growth rate will tend to decrease.

On the other hand, most of the large-scale projects in the province have just begun to be implemented. If the project progresses as planned, these tourist areas will be put into operation by the end of the 2015-2020 period. From the above assessment, along with the local sustainable development policy, the author chooses option 2 as the target for building economic indicators.

Tourism revenue forecast for 2015 is 4,038,981 (million VND) and for 2020 is 6,439,385 (million VND). Related indicators such as: Number of tourists, investment capital in technical infrastructure, tourism labor are also forecasted according to the revenue target of option 2.

3.3.2. Forecasting the number of tourists

Forecast of tourist arrivals for the following years based on the regression model of tourist arrivals by revenue [Appendix 22] :

LKDL(t) = a * LDT(t) +b

In there:

LKDL: Ln KDL (KDL: Total tourists, international visitors, domestic visitors)

LDT: Ln DT (DT: Total tourism industry revenue - at 1994 constant prices)

From the regression results, assuming that in the coming years the impact between the number of visitors and revenue remains unchanged, the forecast for the number of tourists to BR-VT is as follows:

 In 2010, BR-VT tourism will welcome about 7,793,005 visitors (of which:

International visitors: 336,936 visitors; Domestic visitors: 7,456,069 visitors);

 In 2015, BR-VT tourism will welcome about 10,982,302 visitors (of which:

International visitors: 458,617 visitors; Domestic visitors: 10,523,685 visitors);

 In 2020, BR-VT tourism will welcome about 15,476,824 visitors (of which:

International visitors: 624,242 visitors; Domestic visitors: 14,852,582 visitors).

3.3.3. Forecast of additional infrastructure investment needs of the tourism industry

Forecasting investment capital for tourism infrastructure based on revenue based on regression model [Appendix 24] :

LCSHT(t) = a * LDT(t) +b

In there:

LCSHT: Ln CSHT (CSHT: Annual increase in investment capital in tourism infrastructure)

LDT: Ln DT (DT: Total tourism industry revenue - at 1994 constant prices)

The regression results show that R2 = 0.606635, meaning that the revenue variable explains about 60.66% of the change in the infrastructure investment variable. Although the level of influence between the two variables according to the regression results is not large, reality shows that capital plays a very important role in economic development and especially direct investment capital for the tourism industry. To achieve the forecasted revenue, assuming that in the coming years the impact between investment capital and revenue remains unchanged, the province's tourism industry needs to focus on mobilizing investment capital for the tourism industry in the period 2010-2015: 3,549.93 billion VND, an average of 591.65 billion VND/year; 2016-2020 period: 4,754.66 billion VND, an average of 950.93 billion VND/year.

Forecasting according to the regression results in Appendix 23, the number of tourists staying in BR-VT in 2015 was 2,396,710 guests, in 2020 it was 3,492,977 guests. The design of the number of beds in the same room at hotels in general and according to experts' assessment, the accommodation room occupancy rate (average number of people in 1 accommodation room) in BR-VT is currently 1.85. If in the coming years, the room occupancy rate remains at 58.2% [Table 2.3] , the average number of days of stay (1.9 days/guest) and the room occupancy rate remain unchanged, then the number of rooms needed to meet the accommodation demand in 2015 and 2020 are respectively:

Viewpoints on Building Solutions for Tourism Development in Ba Ria - Vung Tau

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