Slow progress; site clearance work is still difficult and stagnant... is the responsibility of many levels and sectors in the Central and Hanoi, including the responsibility of State management activities on urban land during the urbanization process. Researching, proposing orientations for land use, and providing solutions to strengthen the State's management role
for land in Hanoi in the coming years is a very important content and a very necessary requirement. In which there needs to be fundamental innovations in thinking and awareness of the people in the management apparatus, it is necessary to clearly define that current state management of land must be based on a market economy in which land is a special commodity. In the context of international economic integration, there will be many foreign investors participating in production and business activities in Vietnam, so state management of land must be consistent with world economic relations, not and cannot be conducted in the form of
one-sided imposition of the State (administrative order).
3.1. Forecast of Hanoi city's development and change trends
Urban land use dynamics in the urbanization process in Hanoi city
3.1.1. Forecast of Hanoi city's development to 2020
Regarding the strategic goal of developing the capital Hanoi, it is clearly defined in Resolution No. 15/12/2000 of the Politburo: "The economic and social development strategy of the capital must be built and implemented in an organic relationship with the building and implementation of the economic and social development strategy of the region and the whole country..." (62 - 9). From this orientation, in the urban development strategy of Vietnam to 2020, the Party identifies Hanoi as a central city, with a particularly important position in the urban system of Vietnam. Resolution of the Congress
The 10th Party Congress oriented the country's development to implement industrialization and modernization. By 2020, our country will basically become an industrialized country in a modern direction, in which Hanoi plays a pioneering role. Especially since mid-November 2006, Vietnam has become an official member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Hanoi needs to conduct research and come up with a suitable development strategy, competitive enough with advanced cities in the region and the world, worthy of the position of the capital of a country of 100 million people by 2020.
Hanoi's specific development targets are as follows:
* Regarding space: according to the Hanoi urban planning approved by the Government in early 2006, Hanoi will be the central urban area in the Hanoi capital region including the provinces and cities: Ha Tay, Hoa Binh, Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Duong, Ha Nam - the total area of the Hanoi capital region is 17,377 km 2 (equal to about 4.6% of the country's area). In the Hanoi capital region, there will be 87 urban areas and 1,321 urban areas.
The central urban area of Hanoi will be expanded on both sides of the Red River - the south side of the Red River will be expanded to link with urban development projects of Ha Tay province.
The development direction north of the Red River will expand industrial parks and export processing zones along with building new urban areas to ensure connectivity with the provinces of Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Hai Phong, Hai Duong, and Hung Yen. The urban area north of the Red River will become a modern and synchronous industrial - commercial - service center of Hanoi.
Currently, the City People's Committee is assigning the relevant sectors to conduct research to submit to the Government and the National Assembly to adjust the administrative boundaries of the capital Hanoi, in order to ensure that the development scale of the central urban area is commensurate with the capitals of countries in the region and balanced with satellite cities in the region.
* Regarding land use: Urbanization speed is accelerated and accordingly land area
Urban areas will fluctuate very rapidly, Hanoi urban land is divided into restricted development areas, expanded development areas and new construction development areas.
Ensure that the land use target in the central urban area of Hanoi by 2020 reaches an average standard of 100 m2 / person.
* Regarding economy: the economic structure of the Capital region is determined to be trade and services 44%, industry and construction 39.3%, agriculture and forestry 16.7%.
The proportion of total GDP of the Hanoi capital region accounts for 15% of the country.
(in which the central urban area of Hanoi accounts for 8.5% - 9%), ensuring an average GDP income per capita of 500 USD/year (the central urban area alone is 2000 USD/year).
The economic structure of the central urban area of Hanoi is determined to shift in the direction of:
- Commercial services in 2010 were 52%, in 2020 they were 50-51%.
- Industry and construction in 2010 was 47%, in 2020 was 48%.
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery in 2010 was 1-1.5%, in 2020 it was <1%.
* Regarding population: Hanoi's population development is oriented on the basis of
The population growth is stable, showing the harmony between economic growth and social progress, creating the premise for sustainable development. Population development goes hand in hand with population quality and human resource quality. By 2020, the total birth rate will be 1.8; the total urban population of Hanoi will be from 3.3 to 3.5 million (actual
By the end of 2006, the estimated population reached 3.3 million. Number of people of working age
The labor force accounts for 60-65% of the population; increase the proportion of the central urban population to 80%, reduce the proportion of the rural agricultural population. Reasonable adjustment of immigration sources by synchronously developing satellite cities in the Hanoi capital region, associated with the development of industrial parks and export processing zones in developed urban areas. According to the population development orientation determined in the master plan of the capital
By 2020, the urban population of Hanoi will develop to 4.5-5 million people, of which the central urban area of Hanoi will have a population of 2.5 million people; the restricted development area from the 2nd belt to the center must be reduced to only about 800,000 people. The total population of the entire Hanoi capital region is about 11.5-12 million people.
3.1.2 Forecasting land price fluctuation trends in Hanoi city in the coming time
Based on the goal of developing the capital towards industrialization and modernization, the planning for economic and social development of Hanoi capital to 2020 was approved by the Prime Minister in Decision No. 108/1998/QD-TTg dated June 20, 1998. On the basis of the general planning approved by the Government, the Hanoi People's Committee also developed a plan to adjust the planning for economic and social development of Hanoi capital for the period 2001-2010 in September 2001.
According to the general planning approved by the Government, the land use planning of Hanoi city is divided into 3 areas:
1 Restricted development area: (right bank of the Red River - including wards of 4 old inner city districts before 1996 - Ba Dinh; Hoan Kiem; Hai Ba Trung; Dong Da) - with an area of 3,458.7 hectares.
2 Expansion area: (right bank of the Red River) with an area of 54.7 ha (in 2005) and an area of 8,722.7 ha (in 2020).
3 New construction development area: (north of Red River) with area
7,145 hectares (in 2005) and an area of 12,820 hectares (in 2020).
In the period 1998-2005, the Prime Minister approved the transfer plan.
Convert 6,310 hectares of cultivated land to urban construction in Hanoi.
* For areas with limited development (existing inner-city land areas): the direction of land use is to thoroughly exploit existing land funds, especially unused land funds or land funds used for the wrong purpose, ineffectively that need to be recovered (from organizations and individuals using land against the law, using land ineffectively) for the purpose of urban renovation, development and construction; but must ensure the following principles:
- Restrict or prohibit the construction of high-rise buildings in some inner-city areas (paying special attention to old quarters).
- Reduce average residential density, focusing on reducing density in old quarters and ancient streets to 600,000 people.
- Reduce construction density, increase green area, public space and static traffic area.
- Exploit and use the existing land fund thoroughly and effectively (a possible measure is to increase the land use coefficient in residential areas by 0.6-1 times).
* For new urban areas in the suburbs (expansion areas) including the right and left banks of the Red River. The central city is expanded to the suburbs.
- On the right bank of the Red River, the expanded area includes the northwest of Tu Liem district, Tay Ho district, Cau Giay district, Thanh Xuan district and Thanh Tri district and the south of Thanh Tri district.
- On the left bank of the Red River: the new development area includes the north of Thang Long bridge around Van Tri lagoon, Dong Anh district. The northeast and
East of Gia Lam-Sai Dong-Yen Vien area (Long Bien district).
* For counterweight cities.
- The land area for building a counterweight urban chain includes the urban chain of Mieu Mon - Xuan Mai - Hoa Lac - Son Tay, these lands are concentrated in the south.
West of Mieu Mon airport, along Highway 21A. At Xuan Mai on the north and south of Highway 6. At Hoa Lac on both sides of Highway 21A from Phu MDn to the north of Hoa Lac and at Son Tay along Highway 84 to Ba Vi (to Xuan Khanh).
- Land for construction of Soc Son - Xuan Hoa - Phuc Yen cluster includes land around Dai Lai Lake, along the foot of Than Lan mountain, expanding Phuc Yen town to the southeast next to National Highway 2, expanding Soc Son town to the south and north along National Highway 1.
According to the economic development plan of Hanoi capital (adjusted plan) for the period 2001-2010, the land use planning plan for 2010 is forecasted as follows:
- Agricultural land: based on the goal of developing the capital's agricultural economy in the direction of urban-ecological agriculture; linking urbanization with new rural construction in the direction of culture, sustainability to ensure ecological environment, gradually eliminating the boundary between urban and rural areas. Following the strong urbanization trend as it is now and will be higher in the coming years, the area of agricultural land will fluctuate greatly for urban development. By 2010, the area of agricultural land will decrease by 1,781 ha compared to 2000, leaving only 33,446 ha. Specifically: land for annual crops will be 25,234 ha; mixed garden land will be 13 ha; land for perennial crops will be 4,734 ha, land with pasture for livestock will be 2,819 ha.
- Forestry land: based on the goal of developing the green land area of the city; the forestry land planning for 2010 is built to expand the area by accelerating the planting of forests to cover bare land.
Bare hills (concentrated in Soc Son district) - the forestry land area is forecast to be 7,703 hectares, an increase of 1.6 hectares compared to 2000.
- Rural residential land: according to forecasts, if the natural population growth rate is maintained at the current level of around 1%, the mechanical population growth rate will be from 2.5 to 2.7%/year according to the urbanization rate. By 2010, the rural and suburban population of Hanoi will be 1,120,900 people, an increase of 145,480 thousand people, equivalent to 34,625 households. The rural residential land area is 7,909 hectares, a decrease of 908 hectares compared to 2000. The rural residential land area by 2010 will be 13,826 hectares.
- Urban land: according to forecast data, by 2010 Hanoi's urban population will be
2,079,100 people, an increase of 531,600 people compared to 2000. To ensure housing needs as well as economic, political and social activities of the Capital, the land area
Hanoi's urban area is 22,807 hectares, an increase of 12,951 hectares compared to 2000.
- Construction land: by 2010, the construction land area increased by 5,151 hectares, compared to 2000, increasing the construction land area to 10,586 hectares.
- Traffic land: by 2010, the traffic land area was 9,089 hectares, an increase of 3,470 hectares.
- Irrigation land and specialized water surface: in 2010, the area of irrigation land and specialized water surface of the City was 6,203 hectares, an increase of 618 hectares compared to 2000.
- Land for historical and cultural relics: in 2010 the area was 262 hectares (however, about 665 hectares were zoned off within the area for protection and restoration of relics).
- National defense and security land: area 2090 ha, increased 29 ha compared to 2000.
- Land for mineral and raw material exploitation has an area of 375 hectares, an increase of 11 hectares compared to 2000.
- Cemetery land: area 805 hectares, increased 53 hectares compared to 2000.
- Other specialized land: area of 369 ha (mainly used for solid waste treatment, urban waste landfill - increased by 63 ha compared to 2000.
- Unused land: 7,385 ha, down 2,929 ha compared to 2000.
According to the master plan for the development of Hanoi capital to 2020 approved in Decision 108/1998/QD-TTg dated June 20, 1998, some basic land use indicators forecasted in this document are: urban land area is 25,000 ha,
Average urban land is 100m2 / person; of which traffic land is 25m2 / person; land for green parks, sports and physical training is 18m2 / person; land for construction of public works is 5m2 / person. In suburban areas, a green belt of 1-4 km wide is formed, creating conditions for balancing the ecological environment of the City.
The plan for using and needing urban land in Hanoi city is forecasted as follows: (Table 3.1).
Table 3.1. Forecast of urban land use demand to 2020 in Hanoi city
STT
Forecast urban areas | 2005 Land size (ha) | 2020 Land size (ha) | Dog record | |
1 | Hanoi urban development | 24,600.0 | 56,000.0 | |
I | Hanoi City center | 12,110.0 | 25,000.0 | |
1.1 | Restricted Area trien | 3,458.7 | 3,458.7 | |
1.2 | Area of useful expansion Red River bank | 5,417.0 | 8,722.0 | |
1.3 | New Development Area North Red River | 3,234.0 | 12,820.0 | |
II | Urban chains and clusters around | 7,500.0 | 24,500.00 | |
2.1 | Urban chain Mieu Mon - Xuan Mai - Hoa Lac - Son Tay | 6,000.0 | 17,000.0 | Belonging to Ha Tay and Hoa Binh provinces |
2.2 | Soc Son- Xuan Hoa- Dai Lai Urban Cluster Phuc Yen | 1,500.0 | 7,500.0 | Belongs to Hanoi and Bac Ninh |
III | Other urban areas (Bac Ninh, Tu Son, Nhu Quynh, Pho Noi, Thang Tri, Phu Through... | 2,500.0 | 6,500-12,000.0 | Belonging to the provinces of Bac Ninh, Vinh Phuc, Ha Tay, Hung Yen. |
Maybe you are interested!
-
Innovation in state management of commercial development in Hanoi city - 28 -
State management of enterprises in Hanoi city - 1 -
Completing the socio-economic development plan of Long Bien district, Hanoi city until 2015 - 11 -
Improving the effectiveness of credit risk management at the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development - Hanoi Branch - 2 -
Crimes in the field of land management and use in Vietnam Criminal Law Based on practical research in Hanoi city - 2
Source: Master plan for development orientation of Hanoi capital
to 2020 – 1998
In summary: The trend of urban land fluctuations in the coming years in Hanoi city will increase, in the direction of agricultural land being recovered and converted to urban land will increase very quickly; in which the area of urban residential land and the area of construction land will increase faster, due to the objective necessity of the process.
Urban population growth will lead to increased demand for urban land.
Urban land prices in the City will not fluctuate.
mutated for the following reasons:
- Urban land fund (privately managed and granted land use rights certificates) is stable, so the supply capacity of this real estate source, although limited, can still be
meet the needs for a period of time.
- According to the provisions of the Land Law, the State allocates land with collection of land use fees.
Land, land lease in the form of auction or bidding (Article 58 - Land Law 2003). This is an inevitable development trend according to the law of the market economy, due to the influence of Vietnam becoming an official member of the WTO; the urban land area fluctuates and increases according to the approved urban development plan, which will be the main source of supply for the housing needs of urban residents. For immigrants due to urbanization, they can directly participate in the real estate market through the method of auctioning land use rights or bidding for projects, or receiving land use rights from real estate investors. Without the bureaucratic and subsidized mechanism of asking and giving, speculators will have less opportunity to manipulate this real estate market. On the other hand, the demand for land area for investment in construction of works serving the development of trade services and offices will increase very quickly, because foreign investors have many opportunities to participate in investment in Hanoi, which will be an important factor for the real estate market to escape the recent slump.
Due to the trend of urbanization, the form of developing high-rise apartment buildings to solve the urban housing needs of urban residents will be an inevitable solution, the amount of real estate is land use rights to build houses in the form of villas and gardens is not much. Therefore, the psychology of the majority of people with housing needs will choose to buy real estate in the form of apartments (including some people with high income, choosing high-class apartments in central urban areas, with modern infrastructure - such as apartment buildings in some major streets of Hanoi today, will be the preferred solution).
In the first few years, due to the impact of Vietnam's accession to the WTO, real estate prices in Hanoi's urban areas may have small fluctuations (for example, office rental prices or high-end apartments). Demand will increase, as some foreign investors buy real estate to solve housing or office needs, or as overseas Vietnamese invest in buying real estate in the country. However, real estate prices are still unlikely to have sudden price increases. Prices of apartments in modern apartment buildings will likely increase due to psychological factors and inflation (increased inflation rate).
On the State side, with our country joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), it means accepting that our country's economy operates in a new regime.