Some recommendations for investors:
- Investors should pay attention to the Beta coefficient in evaluating and investing in securities. Because based on the Beta coefficient, investors can know whether the market's profit affects the stock's profit or not, whether the market has a relationship between risk and profit or not, so that they can have a basis and make reasonable investment decisions;
- Investors should collect, research and refer to official and transparent information (Website: cafef.vn, Vietstock.vn, https://www.hsx.vn/,...) so that they can apply the reporting model correctly and effectively;
- Investors should regularly update information related to stock prices, VnIndex, etc. to be able to apply financial models and make the most effective investment decisions;
- Etc…
PART 3: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Results
In this study, the significance of the CAPM model for the Vietnamese stock market, specifically the HOSE, is tested. Thereby, clarifying the applicability of this model. During the research process, using historical data to conduct Beta coefficient regression, it is found that the regression Beta coefficient is mostly significant and the CAPM model is relatively applicable to the Vietnamese stock market. In addition, pointing out the limitations of the model in the conditions of the Vietnamese stock market or the limitations of the model itself are points worth noting especially for investors who want to apply this model in investment analysis and securities trading.
2. Limitations of the topic
- The research topic is conducted on 196 stocks, this data volume is quite large, however, with this number of stocks, it still cannot represent the entire Vietnamese stock market. Moreover, the topic only tests on the HOSE floor, not including the HNX and OTC floors.
- Collecting and processing data of 196 stocks within 6 years may have errors when entering or processing data because the amount of content and information is too large. This leads to the data set used to run the model may have some errors.
- Due to limited research time, I have not been able to learn more about the CAPM model, as well as the models used for research and testing still have many limitations and have not been fully overcome.
3. Contributions and development direction of the topic
In the future, when I have a longer research time and more specific and complete data series as well as more experience, I will research and test the model.
CAPM model on the entire Vietnamese stock market to have a more accurate view of the model's applicability. At the same time, it is also desirable to add other factors to the CAPM model to find a way to fully explain the changes in the profits of securities. In addition, the topic can also be studied in the direction of considering the model between different countries with a long enough data series for the study to reflect maximum honesty.
The above are the contributions that the topic can develop. Although the topic has just stopped at the simple development stage and still has many limitations in terms of time, number of research stocks as well as data series, my research will contribute to the basis for further research in the future and provide to some extent the understanding of the stock market and the application of financial models in securities trading for students as well as investors, or those interested in this issue.
LIST OF REFERENCES
A. Documents
[1] Bui Minh Khang (2016), Graduation thesis, Hue University of Economics.
[2] Eugene F.Fama, Kenneth R.French (1992), Common risk in the returns on stocks and bonds.
[3] Hoang Ngoc Nham (2008), Econometrics Textbook
[4] Nguyen Quang Dong and Nguyen Thi Minh (2005), Econometrics Textbook,
National Economics University Publishing House
[5] Nguyen Van Tien, Finance - Money - Banking Textbook, Banking Academy.
[6] Phan Thi Bich Nguyet (2008), Financial investment, Labor and Social Publishing House
[7] Tran Binh Tham (2012), Econometrics Textbook, Hue University of Economics.
[8] Tran Ngoc Tho (2007), Financial modeling, Labor and Social Publishing House
[9] Tran Ngoc Tho (2007), Modern corporate finance, Statistical Publishing House
[10] Project submitted for the student scientific research award “Young Economist - 2011”, project name: “Applying CAPM and Fama-French models to forecast return rates for securities trading in the Vietnamese market.
[11] Hoang Thi Lan Vy (2014), Graduation thesis, Hue University of Economics.
[12] Le Hoang Nga (2011), Stock Market Textbook.
[13] Le Van Te (2007), Textbook on Stock Market in Vietnam.
[14] Nguyen Minh Kieu (2007), Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM – Chapter
Fulbright Economics Teaching Program.
[15] Nguyen Minh Kieu (2010), Basic Corporate Finance Textbook, Statistical Publishing House.
B. Website
[1] https://vietstock.vn/
[2] http://vneconomy.vn/
[3] http://cafef.vn/
[4] http://www.nfsc.gov.vn/
[5] https://www.cophieu68.vn/
[6] http://www.luanvan.co/
[7] https://dautucophieu.net/
[8] http://www.nfsc.gov.vn/
[9] https://www.investing.com/
[10] https://123doc.org/
[11] http://www.tai-lieu.com/
[12] http://www.vjol.info/
[13] https://thachpham.wordpress.com/
[14] https://www.slideshare.net/
[15] http://repository.vnu.edu.vn/
APPENDIX
Appendix 1: Regression results on 196 stocks
STT
Share | Alpha (α) | Beta (β) | P - value (α) | P - value (β) | R - squared | |
1 | AAA | -0.004818 | 0.757441 | 0.6982 | 0.0019 | 0.127535 |
2 | AAM | -0.018421 | 0.284310 | 0.0075 | 0.0284 | 0.065874 |
3 | ABT | -0.004852 | 0.214248 | 0.5287 | 0.1456 | 0.029598 |
4 | ACC | -0.009662 | 0.393753 | 0.2035 | 0.0075 | 0.096459 |
5 | ACL | -0.007462 | -0.205400 | 0.3154 | 0.1474 | 0.029337 |
6 | AGF | -0.025664 | 0.277788 | 0.1095 | 0.3588 | 0.011871 |
7 | AGR | -0.012648 | 0.939846 | 0.3961 | 0.0013 | 0.135745 |
8 | ANV | 0.015686 | 0.886334 | 0.4648 | 0.0321 | 0.063062 |
9 | APC | 0.012247 | 0.458897 | 0.3768 | 0.0837 | 0.041536 |
10 | ASM | -0.002978 | 0.503533 | 0.8233 | 0.0499 | 0.053069 |
11 | ASP | 0.0000197 | 0.626584 | 0.9987 | 0.0080 | 0.095082 |
12 | BBC | 0.014533 | 0.263116 | 0.2438 | 0.2664 | 0.017364 |
13 | BCE | -0.013906 | 0.606459 | 0.0986 | 0.0003 | 0.172155 |
14 | BIC | 0.016263 | 0.445833 | 0.1942 | 0.0626 | 0.047969 |
15 | BMC | -0.019877 | 0.526433 | 0.1201 | 0.0315 | 0.063467 |
16 | BMI | 0.004335 | 0.778784 | 0.7103 | 0.0007 | 0.149074 |
17 | BMP | 0.001630 | 0.588353 | 0.9004 | 0.0197 | 0.074269 |
18 | BSI | 0.003364 | 0.786471 | 0.7811 | 0.0010 | 0.142268 |
19 | BTP | 0.008874 | 0.451749 | 0.4653 | 0.0531 | 0.051691 |
20 | BVH | -0.002894 | 1.774127 | 0.7609 | 0.0000 | 0.577851 |
21 | C47 | -0.002707 | 0.190083 | 0.8528 | 0.4934 | 0.006631 |
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22
CCL | -0.003536 | 0.929382 | 0.8781 | 0.0367 | 0.060053 | |
23 | CDC | 0.009982 | 0.652416 | 0.5157 | 0.0277 | 0.066419 |
24 | CIG | 0.002727 | 0.520359 | 0.8881 | 0.1606 | 0.027538 |
25 | CII | -0.007401 | 0.667868 | 0.4771 | 0.0011 | 0.139694 |
26 | CLC | 0.010496 | -0.197886 | 0.3457 | 0.3494 | 0.012345 |
27 | CLG | -0.013226 | 0.810558 | 0.4679 | 0.0213 | 0.072413 |
28 | CMG | 0.016367 | 0.843157 | 0.2948 | 0.0055 | 0.103449 |
29 | CMX | 0.005970 | 0.101809 | 0.7702 | 0.7931 | 0.000975 |
30 | CNG | -0.005230 | 0.285723 | 0.5226 | 0.0688 | 0.045869 |
31 | CSM | -0.015079 | 0.659556 | 0.1176 | 0.0005 | 0.157819 |
32 | CTD | 0.017121 | 0.349177 | 0.1229 | 0.0981 | 0.038055 |
33 | CTG | -0.006625 | 1.027727 | 0.4589 | 0.0000 | 0.342458 |
34 | CTI | 0.010285 | 0.481685 | 0.4649 | 0.0743 | 0.044172 |
35 | CTS | -0.001808 | 0.943744 | 0.8819 | 0.0001 | 0.191242 |
36 | CVT | 0.011074 | 0.764034 | 0.4828 | 0.0125 | 0.084631 |
37 | DAG | -0.008289 | 0.404332 | 0.5793 | 0.1570 | 0.028006 |
38 | DCL | 0.005090 | 0.296117 | 0.7691 | 0.3700 | 0.011336 |
39 | DHA | 0.010940 | 0.069631 | 0.3583 | 0.7576 | 0.001350 |
40 | DHC | 0.019337 | 0.367921 | 0.0885 | 0.0881 | 0.040427 |
41 | DHG | 0.003321 | 0.356432 | 0.7897 | 0.1348 | 0.031223 |
42 | DIC | -0.012396 | 0.429160 | 0.2642 | 0.0438 | 0.056006 |
43 | DIG | -0.007879 | 1.226465 | 0.5001 | 0.0000 | 0.302887 |
44 | DLG | -0.014184 | 0.814483 | 0.4462 | 0.0235 | 0.070199 |
45 | DMC | 0.012854 | 0.322470 | 0.2709 | 0.1472 | 0.029355 |
46 | DPM | -0.017673 | 0.848123 | 0.0068 | 0.0000 | 0.411036 |
47 | DPR | -0.008968 | 0.151517 | 0.2450 | 0.3007 | 0.015080 |
48 | DQC | 0.002285 | 0.481632 | 0.8479 | 0.0361 | 0.060389 |
49
DSN | 0.001916 | 0.142839 | 0.8036 | 0.3308 | 0.013328 | |
50 | DVP | -0.000862 | 0.372909 | 0.9284 | 0.0436 | 0.056116 |
51 | DXG | 0.007987 | 1.177437 | 0.5489 | 0.0000 | 0.235249 |
52 | DXV | -0.008211 | -0.077447 | 0.4085 | 0.6810 | 0.002394 |
53 | EIB | -0.011329 | 0.594641 | 0.1668 | 0.0002 | 0.173400 |
54 | ELC | -0.014174 | 0.071781 | 0.2171 | 0.7409 | 0.001550 |
55 | FLC | -0.007259 | 0.722084 | 0.7003 | 0.0467 | 0.054548 |
56 | FMC | -0.001560 | 0.959545 | 0.8978 | 0.0001 | 0.196818 |
57 | FPT | -0.010579 | 1.063888 | 0.1669 | 0.0000 | 0.435011 |
58 | GAS | 0.002202 | 1.272556 | 0.8148 | 0.0000 | 0.418839 |
59 | GDT | 0.008391 | 0.171428 | 0.3675 | 0.3327 | 0.013223 |
60 | GIL | -0.004074 | 0.466402 | 0.7156 | 0.0308 | 0.064032 |
61 | GMC | 0.003812 | -0.019161 | 0.6445 | 0.9028 | 0.000212 |
62 | GMD | -0.004803 | 1.154738 | 0.7091 | 0.0000 | 0.240434 |
63 | GSP | 0.002653 | 0.271343 | 0.7480 | 0.0868 | 0.040750 |
64 | HAG | -0.023047 | 1.043747 | 0.0966 | 0.0001 | 0.184920 |
65 | HAP | -0.012138 | 0.738345 | 0.2545 | 0.0005 | 0.160060 |
66 | HAS | 0.002228 | 0.496267 | 0.8536 | 0.0333 | 0.062260 |
67 | HBC | 0.000360 | 0.839218 | 0.9796 | 0.0024 | 0.122236 |
68 | HCM | 0.007220 | 1.147330 | 0.5374 | 0.0000 | 0.274585 |
69 | HDC | -0.003815 | 0.145685 | 0.7491 | 0.5208 | 0.005830 |
70 | HDG | 0.002061 | 0.910511 | 0.8540 | 0.0001 | 0.206325 |
71 | HHS | -0.023588 | 0.197275 | 0.1919 | 0.5637 | 0.004716 |
72 | HLG | 0.003141 | 0.126043 | 0.8490 | 0.6877 | 0.002290 |
73 | HMC | -0.001978 | 0.429293 | 0.7958 | 0.0041 | 0.110394 |
74 | HPG | -0.000310 | 1.008102 | 0.9780 | 0.0000 | 0.239846 |
75 | HQC | -0.014896 | 0.645102 | 0.3043 | 0.0211 | 0.072661 |





