Therefore, they are used to compare the impact level of independent variables on the dependent variable. The independent variable with a larger weight means that the variable has a strong impact on the dependent variable.
Testing for multicollinearity
The regression results using the Enter method show that the research model is suitable: the sig significance level is less than 5%, there is no multicollinearity, because the VIF of all factors is < 2.
3.4.6 Testing hypotheses
According to the results of regression analysis, the following hypotheses were tested:
Table 3.34 Results of testing research hypotheses
Hypothesis
Content | Sig | Result | |
D1 | Criteria for evaluating operational capacity The higher the credit institution, the more capital it will lend to CD CCKT TP. HCM. | .000 | Accept |
D2 | Criteria for evaluating customer performance The higher the credit limit, the more capital the credit institution will lend to the CD CCKT TP. HCM. | .000 | Accept |
D3 | The more complete the criteria for evaluating state policies, the more credit investment will be made for CD CCKT. Ho Chi Minh City more and more; | .000 | Accept |
D4 | The criteria for evaluating the complete lending process will invest in the bank for CD CCKT TP. HCM more and more. big | .000 | Accept |
D5 | Criteria for evaluating good credit information quality will provide loans to serve CD CCKT TP. HCM the more | .000 | Accept |
D6 | Criteria for evaluating good lending methods will lend more to serve CD CCKT TP. HCM. much. | .000 | Accept |
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Source: Author's calculation
The table above shows that the sig of the hypotheses are all less than 0.05, so all hypotheses are accepted; the initial 5 hypotheses are accepted.
Thus, with a survey sample of 360 people with 5 criteria randomly taken from the list of officials, researchers, and customers transacting with credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City, the author obtained the results that there are 6 factors affecting bank credit for CD CCKT in Ho Chi Minh City.
Model of factors affecting bank credit on economic restructuring in Ho Chi Minh City:
Economic capital ratio = 0.593*CSD + 0.171*KHKH + 0.143*NNCS + 0.108*QTCV + 0.135*TTTD +0.203*PTCV
In which: TDCCKT: TDNH with CD CCKT - Ho Chi Minh City.
Through the above model, it can be seen that all 6 factors have the same impact. In which, the factor with the largest impact is the Criteria for assessing the operational capacity of credit institutions (0.539); followed by the Criteria for assessing lending methods (0.174); the Criteria for assessing customer capacity is (0.143) and the smallest is the Criteria for assessing lending processes (0.108) of bank credit for CD CCKT in Ho Chi Minh City.
3.5. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF BANK CREDIT EXPANSION ACTIVITIES WITH THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE TRANSFORMATION IN HO CHI MINH CITY
From the analysis of data from 2012 - 2017 on economic sector development shown through tables and analysis of the Author, the current status of bank credit expansion activities for CD CCKT in Ho Chi Minh City has been raised. From there, the Author surveys the impact of bank credit expansion on the economic restructuring of Ho Chi Minh City towards the sector, or in other words, the shift to reduce the proportion of agricultural production sectors, increase the proportion of non-agricultural sectors of credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City, drawing the results achieved and existing, the causes of existing as follows:
3.5.1. Results achieved
Credit institutions in the area have continuously mobilized all capital sources and expanded lending to economic sectors, sectors, and areas, in order to implement the policy of expanding credit for the economic restructuring of Ho Chi Minh City towards focusing on the service sector, reducing the proportion of agricultural production sectors, increasing the proportion of non-agricultural sectors, which is determined to contribute significantly to accelerating the economic growth rate of Ho Chi Minh City.
In general, through the survey and data table from 2012 to 2017 for employees
Credit institutions have performed well the function of capital mobilization and lending in the area, ensuring timely and effective capital supply for the economic restructuring process:
Firstly, in the period of 2012 - 2017, comparing with the analysis process of the economic structure model of Ho Chi Minh City, it has shifted positively in the direction of gradually reducing the GDP proportion of the two sectors of agriculture - forestry - fishery and industry.
– construction, while gradually increasing the proportion of GDP in the service sector. This shift has been and is going in the right direction according to the orientation of the Government and the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City and will be a stepping stone for the City to gradually become a center of trade, science - technology, education - training of the region. Commercial banks in Ho Chi Minh City regularly follow the direction of the Prime Minister, Decision No. 2631/QD-TTg dated December 31, 2013 on approving the master plan for socio-economic development of Ho Chi Minh City to 2020, with a vision to 2025.
Second, regarding the development of the service sector: Ho Chi Minh City needs to orientate with 9 groups of sectors: Finance, credit, banking, insurance; Transportation, warehousing, port services; Post and telecommunications and information technology, communications; Asset and real estate business; Consulting services, science and technology; Tourism; Healthcare and high-quality education and training. Strive to bring the added value of the above service groups to a growth rate higher than the GDP growth rate in the area.
Third, regarding industrial development: Ho Chi Minh City needs to focus on supporting the shift of industrial structure to products and industries with high scientific and technological content and high added value, including: Mechanical engineering; Electronics, telecommunications and information technology; Chemical and pharmaceutical industry; Food processing with high added value.
Fourth, the increase in medium and long-term credit investment of credit institutions in the city over the years has shown the increasing role of bank credit in implementing the economic restructuring in the area towards expanding long-term investment, enhancing equipment and technology innovation, which is one of the prerequisites for implementing the economic development process of the city.
Fifth, invest bank credit capital in the agricultural and rural economic sector.
Rural areas are truly an economic lever, contributing to exploiting the potential of land, labor, resources, etc., promoting the strengths of regions and districts in the city. Thanks to credit, enterprises, production households and individuals in production and business have the conditions to apply science and technology, biotechnology, information technology such as new plant varieties in production, thereby improving labor productivity, quality of livestock and crops, product quality, enhancing competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets, creating conditions for expanding production and improving people's lives; especially the lives of people in suburban rural areas.
Sixth, bank credit investment has contributed to expanding bank credit to collective economic sectors and individual private economic sectors, especially in the industrial sector and in restoring and developing craft villages and craft village industrial clusters.
Seventh, the increasing proportion of industrial loans, construction, trade and services has contributed to promoting the movement of labor from agriculture to industrial labor, trade and services. Through credit investment, it has contributed to shifting the economic structure of the sector, labor structure, taking advantage of seasonal labor, creating jobs, especially in rural areas that have long been monoculture, creating momentum to gradually shift a part of agricultural labor to industrial labor, trade and services, accelerating the process of economic restructuring according to the city's orientation. At the same time, it has limited social evils, created motivation for labor production, and competition in business.
Eighth, through the expansion of lending to economic sectors, bank credit has impacted the process of formation and development of a multi-sector economy. Implementing the Party's innovation policy on developing a multi-sector economy, operating under a market mechanism with State management in a socialist orientation. Credit institutions expand lending to economic sectors, economic sectors treat economic sectors fairly in all aspects such as interest rates, loan guarantees, loan levels, etc. so that all economic sectors develop equally in a socialist-oriented market economy.
Nine, through credit investment activities of the Policy Bank and the Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development, the city has effectively implemented social policies, such as:
build infrastructure, implement poverty reduction programs, limit usury, speculative hoarding, and market manipulation, through lending to the poor, farming households, and lending to projects using bank credit capital.
Tenth, through credit investment, it also creates the premise for the capital market and the commodity market in the city to develop. Through lending to the city's economy, it has promoted economic sectors to grasp the market, stabilize prices, avoid adverse events for people's lives, contribute to promoting economic development, change the face of the countryside, reduce poverty, restore and develop traditional industries, utilize labor, limit social evils, ... contribute to promoting the process of economic restructuring according to the city's orientation.
Eleventh, one of the innovations of credit institutions is to restructure outstanding debt. That is, focusing on the proportion of outstanding medium- and long-term credit has implemented the motto of in-depth innovation of mechanisms and investment sectors of the economy. Credit institutions have provided capital to enterprises with potential to expand production but lacking capital. Especially in the current period, units really need to change and innovate machinery and equipment to work, increase productivity and improve product quality, the form of medium- and long-term credit is a correct solution to transform the operations of economic units, especially individual private economic units, according to the market mechanism, contributing to solving difficulties, truly giving autonomy in production and business to economic units. Therefore, outstanding medium- and long-term credit is increasing.
Twelfth, credit institutions have really paid attention to improving credit quality, have selected suitable lending objects and paid due attention to improving the quality of investment project appraisal; to the balance between capital mobilization and use, ... such as:
- Currently, credit institutions in the area have a policy of: "investing enough capital for feasible projects of enterprises". However, there are not many feasible projects, especially projects producing competitive products in the domestic market as well as the international market, the production and business efficiency of enterprises is still low. Credit institutions mainly use short-term mobilized capital to lend long-term at the permitted rate. Although using this capital for lending reduces costs, it is possible to make the most of mobilized capital, increase
The average capital utilization ratio of credit institutions is already low, but the disadvantage is that the source of loans is unstable and limited (because it depends on mobilized capital).
- Credit institutions have closely linked short-term credit with medium- and long-term credit to promote credit efficiency in both short-term and long-term lending in the process of serving economic restructuring.
- Credit institutions have used scientific calculation methods in the appraisal process. If previously, only the profitability and debt repayment sources were calculated, now the break-even point, NPV, and IRR indicators have been applied in the calculation and are considered important criteria to decide whether to invest or not. The evaluation criteria of consumption capacity and competitiveness are initially calculated and analyzed.
- The source of information collected during the credit capital investment process is increasingly abundant, from which the basis for analyzing and evaluating the feasibility and effectiveness of the project is gradually becoming more accurate.
- Credit institutions always closely monitor the production and business activities of enterprises. When enterprises encounter difficulties (due to objective reasons), credit institutions and enterprises always find ways to resolve and extend the debt for the enterprise's loans if the difficulties are only temporary.
3.5.2 Existing limitations
Besides the survey results and results of bank credit activities for economic restructuring in Ho Chi Minh City, there are still some main shortcomings and limitations as follows:
Firstly, the State's support policy through state credit is still widespread.
The beneficiaries of incentives are still wide, the boundary between those who are and are not supported is often unclear, leading to the State's preferential credit policy still containing subsidy elements. On the other hand, specific regulations on credit mechanisms and policies are unstable and sometimes unreasonable, leading to low efficiency and credit quality. In order for state credit to truly contribute to effective economic restructuring, in terms of
In terms of policy mechanisms, it is necessary to clearly identify the service objects, on the basis of investment orientation focusing on a number of priority areas such as infrastructure-engineering, high-tech industries, labor-intensive industries, development of traditional occupations, and production of export goods according to the identified economic structures.
Second, the bank credit mechanism under the Law on Domestic Investment Promotion still has some inappropriate points.
According to the Law on Domestic Investment Promotion, all investment projects in difficult and especially difficult areas and investment projects in development incentive sectors are considered by the State for investment loans with preferential interest rates or partial interest rate subsidies for projects borrowing investment capital from credit institutions, while some Government documents on State development investment credit stipulate that the subjects of investment loans are too narrow. Only a number of investment projects in certain industries are entitled to investment incentives such as: electricity production, mineral exploitation, basic chemicals, and engine manufacturing, but must be invested in areas with difficult and especially difficult socio-economic conditions to be eligible for State development investment credit loans. Other projects are not eligible for preferential loans from the State, although these projects are in the list of industries that enjoy investment incentives, use a lot of labor and other resources, but cannot be invested in locations that are too difficult due to the high costs of transportation, supply of raw materials and products, and therefore, will not receive state credit loans when applying for credit.
Third, investment procedures for private economic sectors and non-state-owned economic organizations using bank credit capital are not clearly regulated, hindering private enterprises and individuals from accessing State support capital.
According to the general spirit of investment and construction management, all investment projects of economic sectors when using state credit capital must fully implement investment procedures like projects using state budget capital. This causes difficulties for investors who are not state-owned enterprises to borrow investment capital for small-scale projects with low loan amounts, requiring rapid construction to take advantage of investment opportunities and promote economic efficiency soon.
Fourth, the application of preferential state credit interest rate mechanisms still has some shortcomings.
From a macro-management perspective, the LSSDT support form is a positive and necessary trend to ensure the advantage of state credit support for economic development. However, to gradually restore a new balance between “supply” and “demand” of credit capital requires the application of market mechanisms.
On the other hand, the awareness of the LSSĐT support mechanism is a process and life poses new issues that require continued research to gradually improve. Currently, the LSSĐT support level according to State regulations can be considered an important "link", but it is necessary to see that this is not the only measure in removing difficulties and obstacles in the State's investment support mechanism.
Furthermore, there are still problems in applying this mechanism. For example, currently, if a project only borrows a part of the state credit capital, the rest uses loans from other credit institutions such as commercial banks,... then it will not receive LSSĐT support.
Fifth, the establishment and implementation of investment projects is generally slow, and the quality of investment projects is still not high.
Although the Government issued, along with the Investment and Construction Management Regulations, clearly stipulating the general order of basic construction work, the order of content of investment project establishment and appraisal in particular. However, in reality, in Ho Chi Minh City, the implementation of these regulations has not been strict. There are many projects, especially projects of small and medium enterprises, that are poorly established, lacking or miscalculating many contents of an investment project, the basis for establishment is not solid, especially issues related to the market, product prices, technological equipment, economic and technical norms, consumption of raw materials, fuel, materials, investment capital rate, investment capital sources, calculation of economic efficiency, capital recovery ability and not originating from the socio-economic development planning of the industry and the city.
The agency that makes the decision to invest in the project: has not yet determined the capital and the source of capital to participate in the project with high feasibility. Most of the total investment of the project is not calculated close to reality, especially the capital for purchasing equipment, construction and installation, and other expenses. In the total investment, almost all projects have incorrectly calculated the working capital for initial production. The feasibility of the source of capital to participate in the investment is the most important issue for all types of investment projects by