Applying some statistical methods to analyze the economic efficiency of foreign direct investment FDI in Vietnam

- Lack of data on the implementation capital of parties in the investment receiving country and foreign parties;

- Lack of data on costs, savings and net foreign exchange gains;

- Lack of data on inflation index makes it difficult to calculate and analyze economic efficiency when taking this factor into account;

- Data collection and synthesis are not synchronous, even inconsistent, specifically data on results and resources of FDI by industry and locality are often incomplete (such as VA, capital sources). Therefore, analyzing the economic efficiency of FDI by industry or locality is difficult.

Maybe you are interested!

+ Awareness and application of statistical methods in assessing FDI efficiency are still limited in both theory and practice, and have not been truly considered an important tool for researching and assessing the FDI situation - the basis for perfecting strategies, policies, planning and FDI management.

+ The FDI economic performance indicators system is incomplete, inconsistent, and lacking in synchronization.

+ In particular, the application of statistical methods is not systematic, is still quite fragmented, and does not promote the interaction between methods well.

+ FDI information sources in general and the economic indicators system in particular are incomplete, asynchronous, and inconsistent, causing difficulties in analyzing economic efficiency as well as other studies on FDI.

+ Investment in statistics in general and data collection for FDI economic analysis in particular is still limited, not meeting practical requirements.

+ The team doing statistics in general, especially analyzing FDI economic efficiency, is still lacking in quantity, has not been invested properly and coordination is limited.

+ The coordination between statistical analysis - management - policy proposal on FDI in general and FDI economic efficiency in particular is not tight, not synchronous and the efficiency is still limited.

CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 3

With the aim of improving the quality of applying statistical methods in analyzing FDI economic efficiency to contribute to increasing the effectiveness of foreign direct investment activities in Vietnam, the thesis has solved the following problems.

First , an overview of the FDI situation in Vietnam as well as some of its basic impacts on the economy.

Second , to illustrate, the thesis applies statistical methods to analyze FDI economic performance in Vietnam, period 2001-2005, specifically:

+ FDI economic analysis

Research on the efficiency of capital and labor resources based on the combined analysis of total efficiency, incremental efficiency and factor variation.

+ Analyze the impact of economic efficiency on the results of the FDI sector such as VA, budget revenue, export value over time, by factor and combined with analysis by industry or investment form.

In each part, the methods of multi-indicator time series analysis, extended index, and graphs are often combined to study trends and factors affecting the efficiency of capital, assets, and human resources of the FDI sector in a scientific and practical manner. Moreover, total efficiency, incremental efficiency, and factor analysis are often closely combined. In addition, the correlation regression method is also used to study FDI economic efficiency.

Third , the thesis has evaluated the existing problems and causes of FDI economic efficiency, the feasibility of the system of indicators and statistical methods in analyzing FDI economic efficiency in Vietnam.

In summary , to illustrate and demonstrate the feasibility of the ICT and statistical methods, chapter 3 calculated, analyzed and evaluated the economic efficiency of FDI in Vietnam.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

SOME RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE QUALITY

OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FDI ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN VIETNAM

+ Raising awareness of the importance of statistical analysis of FDI economic efficiency

Relevant levels, sectors, provinces, cities, units and individuals from central to local levels need to affirm the important role of statistics in improving FDI economic efficiency. In the new conditions, the economy as well as FDI activities have achieved great achievements but still have many shortcomings. As a member of the WTO, facing new opportunities and challenges of regionalization, globalization and the requirements of industrialization and modernization of the country, statistics need to promote their proper role in information collection and processing activities to meet the requirements of economic management in general and FDI in particular. If FDI statistics are not good, it is impossible to analyze and evaluate FDI economic efficiency well. Moreover, if the FDI information system in general and statistical data sources in particular do not meet the needs of investment partners in market research, it will limit the ability to attract FDI to Vietnam.

To improve the quality of FDI statistics, awareness does not stop at just calling for action, but requires a system of specific solutions, ensuring feasibility to turn awareness into practical action of relevant levels, ministries, branches, localities and units.

To raise awareness and the role of statistics, the first priority is to perfect the statistical system on FDI from data collection and synthesis.

to analyze and provide a reliable basis for increasingly effective activities of building strategies, planning, policies, monitoring, inspection, evaluation and management of FDI.

+ Improve the quality of data collection and statistical analysis of FDI economic efficiency.

- Completing the FDI statistical indicators system

The General Statistics Office, the Ministry of Planning and Investment and relevant ministries and sectors need to complete the FDI statistical indicator system to improve the ability to synthesize, analyze and evaluate FDI economic efficiency in a synchronous, complete, unified, timely, transparent, multi-functional and consistent with international statistics.

The FDI statistical indicator system not only has enough subsystems on costs, resources (capital and human resources) and results, but each subsystem must have enough basic indicators to meet the requirements for assessing FDI economic efficiency and other macro management requirements on FDI. In particular, regarding FDI capital, in addition to registered capital, there must be enough data on implemented capital of domestic and foreign parties to serve as a basis for determining important new result indicators (See section 2.1.3.1 of chapter 2). Regarding the result indicator subsystem, in addition to VA, NVA, ..., new result indicators such as net added value calculated separately for FDI capital, net export value calculated separately for FDI capital, budget revenue calculated separately for FDI capital ... (See section 2.1.3.1 of chapter 2) need to be determined to reflect and analyze more accurately the benefits that the investment recipient country receives separately for FDI capital.

FDI economic efficiency indicators need to be completed and unified in terms of name, symbol, content, scope, time and calculation method (See section 2.1.3, chapter 2). Specifically, the FDI economic efficiency indicator system needs to have a subsystem of total economic efficiency indicators and a subsystem of increased economic efficiency indicators, in each subsystem there is a group of efficiency indicators in the positive form and a group of efficiency indicators in the positive form.

In which, each group of indicators includes a subgroup reflecting the economic efficiency of costs and a subgroup reflecting the economic efficiency of resources.

The system of FDI statistical indicators needs to be consistent with the system of economic indicators of the economy and follow international statistical trends to ensure the ability to synthesize, compare and analyze FDI activities with domestic investment as well as with other countries.

In addition, the inflation index needs to be studied and determined to eliminate the inflation factor in the process of statistical research in general and FDI economic efficiency analysis in particular. Because when using comparative prices, it means excluding the price fluctuation factor - an important factor that needs to be taken into account in both micro and macro market economies - so the efficiency analysis is often inaccurate and inconsistent with the market mechanism.

To ensure consistency, the system of tables, regimes, forms and reporting times... need to continue to be improved and implemented with inspection, with rewards and sanctions strong enough to enhance the legality and feasibility of the FDI statistics system. To do so, it is necessary to first of all propagate and mobilize FDI enterprises as well as relevant departments to affirm that transparency is an urgent requirement, both a right and a legal obligation that all relevant units must seriously implement.

- Strengthen the application of statistical methods to analyze FDI economic efficiency in research, evaluation and management of FDI.

The application of statistical methods to analyze FDI economic performance must comply with the following guidelines:

* Combine economic efficiency analysis with some important FDI economic performance indicators such as NNVA*, budget revenue calculated separately for FDI capital... to both evaluate the quality as well as the economic and social benefits of FDI;

* Analysis of the effectiveness of FDI costs and resources includes:

 Cost effectiveness;

 Capital efficiency;

 Efficiency of fixed assets;

 Labor efficiency.

This is the basis for analyzing and evaluating the effectiveness of each type of resource to know their advantages, disadvantages, and quality of operation in order to have appropriate incentive and management solutions for each factor, thereby helping to improve the overall economic efficiency of FDI.

* When analyzing the effectiveness of each type of resource as well as economic results, it is necessary to study from the following perspectives:

 Industry

 Province, city

 Investment form

 Investment partners

 Export processing zone or industrial park

This is the basis for evaluating the effectiveness, advantages, disadvantages, existence of FDI and their causes for each province, city, industry, etc.; helping to compare and study the fluctuations in FDI economic efficiency between them. Moreover, this is also a reliable basis for building, perfecting strategies, planning, adjusting policies, and managing in accordance with the current situation of the FDI sector as well as each industry, province, city, investment form or for each export processing zone or industrial park.

* Combine overall efficiency analysis with incremental efficiency to study their causes and trends.

160

* To improve the capacity of FDI economic analysis, it is necessary to combine the application of statistical methods, especially new methods such as:

- Multi-indicator graph method to analyze the relationship between related indicators, thereby helping to assess the fluctuation trend of FDI economic performance over time (See section 2.2.2.2, chapter 2);

- Multi-indicator time series analysis method to analyze the fluctuations of related indicators as well as the relationship between them, thereby assessing the fluctuations of FDI economic performance over time (See section 2.2.2.3, chapter 2);

- Extended index method to simultaneously analyze the fluctuation trend of FDI economic efficiency as well as factors affecting the movement of efficiency over different periods (See section 2.2.2.5, chapter 2).

- About implementation

* On the basis of the Law on Statistics, strengthen coordination among relevant departments and agencies in research and implementation in the collection, processing, assessment, planning and management of FDI.

* The FDI statistics system from central, local to export processing zones needs to be coordinated and perfected in terms of functions, tasks, organizational structure, mechanisms and operating conditions to ensure information for the synthesis, analysis and assessment of FDI economic efficiency in a synchronous, unified, transparent manner, avoiding duplication, with feasibility, mutual support and high efficiency both vertically and horizontally.

* The data collection mechanism needs to be improved to avoid inconvenience to related enterprises and units; ensure the principle of transparency; fully comply with regulations on statistical reporting and laws. FDI enterprises and related units have the authority and responsibility to comply with the Law, regulations on collecting, reporting and processing FDI data. In addition to raising awareness, the information system needs to be implemented mainly through enhancing the feasibility of state and legal tools.

* Indicators on capital, human resources, costs and FDI results need to be collected and synthesized not only for the entire economy but also by industry, locality and investment form to have a good source of data for effective statistical analysis according to these criteria.

* Improve the quality of personnel work from the selection, training, fostering, use, appointment and control stages in the direction of ensuring quantity, good professional qualifications, high sense of responsibility, modern and suitable implementation conditions. Staff in charge of FDI statistics need to have expertise in statistics and FDI. Relevant units need to coordinate to organize professional training courses for their staff, especially focusing on the application of statistical methods to analyze FDI economic efficiency.

The method of providing information needs to be improved to facilitate investors as well as research units to increase investment attraction and serve as a basis for research and analysis of FDI economic efficiency.

Strengthen the powerful head to improve the ability to collect, process, and transmit data of the information system in an open, multilingual, and multifunctional direction.

Applying some statistical methods to analyze the economic efficiency of foreign direct investment FDI in Vietnam - 20

Comment