Appendix 4: Summary of land revenue from 2005 to 2014
Unit: million VND
Year
Land use fee | Contribution collection | Total revenue to invest | Investment expenditure | |
2004 | 56,450 | 51,783 | 108,233 | 98,066 |
2005 | 40,388 | 7,940 | 48,328 | 48,382 |
2006 | 27,199 | 18,152 | 45,351 | 43,329 |
2007 | 31,758 | 1,356 | 33,114 | 54,672 |
2008 | 33,923 | 2,707 | 36,630 | 58,253 |
2009 | 47,945 | 1,810 | 49,755 | 55,674 |
2010 | 72,496 | 5,470 | 77,966 | 100,053 |
2011 | 60.105 | 1,840 | 61,945 | 88,280 |
2012 | 33,375 | 171 | 33,546 | 145,869 |
2013 | 69,682 | 69,682 | 148,244 | |
2014 | 97,000 | 97,000 | 255,268 | |
Total | 570,321 | 91,229 | 661,550 | 1,096,090 |
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Current Status of Land and Tourism Resources in Ba Vi National Park, Tam Dao, Ben En -
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Identify Rating Levels and Rating Scales
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of the islanders. Therefore, this indicator will be divided into two sub-indicators:
a1. Natural tourism attractiveness a2. Cultural tourism attractiveness
b. Tourist capacity
The two island communes in Quan Lan have different capacities to receive tourists. Minh Chau Commune is home to many standard hotels and resorts, attracting high-income domestic and international tourists. Meanwhile, Quan Lan Commune has many motels mainly built and operated by local people, so the scale and quality are not high, and will be suitable for ordinary tourists such as students.
c. Time of exploitation of Quan Lan Island Commune:
Quan Lan tourism is seasonal due to weather and climate conditions and festivals only take place on certain days of the year, specifically in spring. In Quan Lan commune, the period from April to June and from September to November is considered the best time to visit Quan Lan because the cultural tourism activities are mainly associated with festivals taking place during this time.
Minh Chau island commune:
Tourism exploitation time is all year round, because this is a place with a number of tourist attractions with diverse ecosystems such as Bai Tu Long National Park Research Center, Tram forest, Turtle Laying Beach, so besides coming to the beach for tourism and vacation in the summer, Minh Chau will attract research groups to come for tourism combined with research at other times of the year.
d. Sustainability
The sustainability of ecotourism sites in Quan Lan and Minh Chau communes depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystems to climate changes.
landscape. In general, these tourist destinations have a fairly high level of sustainability, because they are natural ecosystems, planned and protected. However, if a large number of tourists gather at certain times, it can exceed the carrying capacity and affect the sustainability of the environment (polluted beaches, damaged trees, animals moving away from their habitats, etc.), then the sustainability of the above ecosystems (natural ecosystems, human ecosystems) will also be affected and become less sustainable.
e. Location and accessibility
Both island communes have ports to take tourists to visit from Van Don wharf:
- Quan Lan – Van Don traffic route:
Phuc Thinh – Viet Anh high-speed boat and Quang Minh high-speed boat, depart at 8am and 2pm from Van Don to Quan Lan, and at 7am and 1pm from Quan Lan to Van Don. There are also wooden boats departing at 7am and 1pm.
- Van Don - Minh Chau traffic route:
Chung Huong high-speed train, Minh Chau train, morning 7:30 and afternoon 13:30 from Van Don to Minh Chau, morning 6:30 and afternoon 13:00 from Minh Chau to Van Don.
f. Infrastructure
Despite receiving investment attention, the issue of infrastructure and technical facilities for tourism on Quan Lan Island is still an issue that needs to be resolved because it has a direct impact on the implementation of ecotourism activities. The minimum conditions for serving tourists such as accommodation, electricity, water, communication, especially medical services, and security work need to be given top priority. Ecotourism spots in Minh Chau commune are assessed to have better infrastructure and technical facilities for tourism because there are quite complete and synchronous conditions for serving tourists, meeting many needs of domestic and foreign tourists.
3.2.1.4. Determine assessment levels and assessment scales
Corresponding to the levels of each criterion, the index is the score of those levels in the order of 4, 3, 2, 1 decreasing according to the standard of each level: very attractive (4), attractive (3), average (2), less attractive (1).
3.2.1.5. Determining the coefficients of the criteria
For the assessment of DLST in the two communes of Quan Lan and Minh Chau islands, the students added evaluation coefficients to show the importance of the criteria and indicators as follows:
Coefficient 3 with criteria: Attractiveness, Exploitation time. These are the 2 most important criteria for attracting tourists to tourism in general and eco-tourism in particular, so they have the highest coefficient.
Coefficient 2 with criteria: Capacity, Infrastructure, Location and accessibility . Because the assessment area is an island commune of Van Don district, the above criteria are selected by the author with appropriate coefficients at the average level.
Coefficient 1 with criteria: Sustainability. Quan Lan has natural and human-made ecotourism sites, with high biodiversity and little impact from local human factors. Most of the ecotourism sites are still wild, so they are highly sustainable.
3.2.1.6. Results of DLST assessment on Quan Lan island
a. Assessment of the potential for natural tourism development
For Minh Chau commune:
+ Natural tourism attractiveness is determined to be very attractive (4 points) and the most important coefficient (coefficient 3), so the score of the Attractiveness criterion is 4 x 3 = 12.
+ Capacity is determined as average (2 points) and the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), then the score of Capacity criterion is 2 x 2 = 4.
+ Exploitation time is long (4 points), the most important coefficient (coefficient 3) so the score of the Exploitation time criterion is 4 x 3 = 12.
+ Sustainability is determined as sustainable (4 points), the important coefficient is the average coefficient (coefficient 1), so the score of the Sustainability criterion is 4 x 1 = 4 points
+ Location and accessibility are determined to be quite favorable (2 points), the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), the criterion score is 2 x 2 = 4 points.
+ Infrastructure is assessed as good (3 points), the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), then the score of the Infrastructure criterion is 3 x 2 = 6 points.
The total score for evaluating DLST in Minh Chau commune according to 6 evaluation criteria is determined as: 12 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 6 = 42 points
Similar assessment for Quan Lan commune, we have the following table:
Table 3.3: Assessment of the potential for natural ecotourism development in Quan Lan and Minh Chau communes
Attractiveness of self-tourismof course
Capacity
Mining time
Sustainability
Location and accessibility
Infrastructure
Result
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
CommuneMinh Chau
12
12
4
8
12
12
4
4
4
8
6
8
42/52
Quan CommuneLan
6
12
6
8
9
12
4
4
4
8
4
8
33/52
b. Assessment of the potential for humanistic tourism development
For Quan Lan commune:
+ The attractiveness of human tourism is determined to be very attractive (4 points) and the most important coefficient (coefficient 3), so the score of the Attractiveness criterion is 4 x 3 = 12.
+ Capacity is determined to be large (3 points) and the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), then the score of the Capacity criterion is 3 x 2 = 6.
+ Mining time is average (3 points), the most important coefficient (coefficient 3) so the score of the Mining time criterion is 3 x 3 = 9.
+ Sustainability is determined as sustainable (4 points), the important coefficient is the average coefficient (coefficient 1), so the score of the Sustainability criterion is 4 x 1 = 4 points.
+ Location and accessibility are determined to be quite favorable (2 points), the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), the criterion score is 2 x 2 = 4 points.
+ Infrastructure is rated as average (2 points), the coefficient is quite important (coefficient 2), then the score of the Infrastructure criterion is 2 x 2 = 4 points.
The total score for evaluating DLST in Quan Lan commune according to 6 evaluation criteria is determined as: 12 + 6 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 36 points.
Similar assessment with Minh Chau commune we have the following table:
Table 3.4: Assessment of the potential for developing humanistic eco-tourism in Quan Lan and Minh Chau communes
Attractiveness of human tourismliterature
Capacity
Mining time
Sustainability
Location and accessibility
Infrastructure
Result
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Point
DarkMulti
Quan CommuneLan
12
12
6
8
9
12
4
4
4
8
4
8
39/52
Minh CommuneChau
6
12
4
8
12
12
4
4
4
8
6
8
36/52
Basically, both Minh Chau and Quan Lan localities have quite favorable conditions for developing ecotourism. However, Quan Lan commune has more advantages to develop ecotourism in a humanistic direction, because this is an area with many famous historical relics such as Quan Lan Communal House, Quan Lan Pagoda, Temple worshiping the hero Tran Khanh Du, ... along with local festivals held annually such as the wind praying ceremony (March 15), Quan Lan festival (June 10-19); due to its location near the port and long exploitation time, the beaches in Quan Lan commune (especially Quan Lan beach) are no longer hygienic and clean to ensure the needs of tourists coming to relax and swim; this is also an area with many beautiful landscapes such as Got Beo wind pass, Ong Phong head, Voi Voi cave, but the ability to access these places is still very limited (dirt hill road, lots of gravel and rocks), especially during rainy and windy times; In addition, other natural resources such as mangrove forests and sea worms have not been really exploited for tourism purposes and ecotourism development. On the contrary, Minh Chau commune has more advantages in developing ecotourism in the direction of natural tourism, this is an area with diverse ecosystems such as at Rua De Beach, Bai Tu Long National Park Conservation Center...; Minh Chau beach is highly appreciated for its natural beauty and cleanliness, ranked in the top ten most beautiful beaches in Vietnam; Minh Chau commune is also home to Tram forest with a large area and a purity of up to 90%, suitable for building bridges through the forest (a very effective type of natural ecotourism currently applied by many countries) for tourists to sightsee, as well as for the purpose of studying and researching.
Figure 3.1: Thenmala Forest Bridge (India) Source: https://www.thenmalaecotourism.com/(August 21, 2019)
3.2.2. Using SWOT matrix to evaluate Quan Lan island tourism
General assessment of current tourism activities of Quan Lan island is shown through the following SWOT matrix:
Table 3.5: SWOT matrix evaluating tourism activities on Quan Lan island
Internal agent
Strengths- There is a lot of potential for tourism development, especially natural ecotourism and humanistic ecotourism.- The unskilled labor force is relatively abundant.- resource environmentunpolluted, still
Weaknesses- Poorly developed infrastructure, especially traffic routes to tourist destinations on the island.- The team of professional staff is still weak.- Tourism products in general
quite wild, originalintact
general and DLST in particularalone is monotonous.
External agents
Opportunity- Tourism is a key industry in the socio-economic development strategy of the province and Van Don economic zone.- Quan Lan was selected as a pilot area for eco-tourism development within the framework of the green growth project between Quang Ninh province and the Japanese organization JICA.- The flow of tourists and especially ecotourism in the world tends toincreasing
Challenge- Weather and climate change abnormally.- Competition in tourism products is increasingly fierce, especially with other localities in the province such as Ha Long, Mong Cai...- Awareness of tourists, especially domestic tourists, about ecotourism and nature conservation is not high.
Through summary analysis using SWOT matrix we see that:
To exploit strengths and take advantage of opportunities, it is necessary to:
- Diversify products and service types (build more tourism routes aimed at specific needs of tourists: experiential tourism immersed in nature, spiritual cultural tourism...)
- Effective exploitation of resources and differentiated products (natural resources and human resources)
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Appendix 5: Summary of some socio-economic indicators for the period 1996-2014
Year
Investment capital Billion VND | GRDP (at actual price) | GRDP (billion VND) 1994 comparable price | GRDP growth rate (%) | Population (people) | Workers in the economic sectors | Investment Capital/ GRDP Ratio (%) | |
1996 | 51.60 | ||||||
1997 | 49.60 | ||||||
1998 | 31.90 | ||||||
1999 | 39.90 | ||||||
2000 | 165.80 | 533.10 | 392.60 | 10.30 | 69,869 | 36,459 | 31.10 |
2001 | 161.40 | 617.70 | 441.36 | 12.42 | 71,647 | 37,421 | 26.13 |
2002 | 235.10 | 753.20 | 522.39 | 18.36 | 72,369 | 38.101 | 31.21 |
2003 | 261.10 | 953.30 | 633.30 | 21.23 | 73,396 | 38,884 | 27.39 |
2004 | 427.70 | 1,060.00 | 745.93 | 17.78 | 74,571 | 39,347 | 40.35 |
2005 | 589.70 | 1,264.00 | 817.86 | 9.64 | 76,104 | 39,547 | 46.65 |
2006 | 816.60 | 1,476.00 | 935.65 | 14.40 | 77,355 | 40,162 | 55.33 |
2007 | 845.20 | 1,751.00 | 1,087.43 | 16.22 | 78,851 | 43,948 | 48.27 |
2008 | 980.60 | 2,037.60 | 1,259.08 | 15.79 | 83,752 | 47,760 | 48.13 |
2009 | 1,540.70 | 2,530.90 | 1,379.80 | 9.59 | 89,171 | 51,507 | 60.88 |
2010 | 1,962.00 | 3,017.00 | 1,530.17 | 10.90 | 91,077 | 52,600 | 65.03 |
2011 | 2,010.30 | 3,474.00 | 1,747.56 | 14.21 | 92,771 | 53,800 | 57.87 |
2012 | 2,832.50 | 3,708.00 | 1,823.74 | 4.36 | 94,495 | 54,721 | 76.39 |
2013 | 3,230.30 | 4,879.20 | 2,204.38 | 20.87 | 96,372 | 56,104 | 66.21 |
2014 | 3,079.80 | 6,392.00 | 2,863.17 | 29.89 | 99,600 | 57,642 | 48.18 |
Total | 19,138.8 | 55.56 |
Appendix 6: Investment capital mobilization from 1996-2014
Unit: million VND
Number of items
Target | Stage | |||||
1996- 2000 | 2001- 2005 | 2006- 2010 | 2011- 2014 | Total | ||
I | Investment capital structure | 241,523 | 384,275 | 881,649 | 1,146,441 | 2,653,888 |
1 | Central Budget | 153,756 | 128,569 | 222,786 | 244,851 | 749,962 |
2 | Provincial Budget | 19,113 | 349,757 | 297,923 | 666,793 | |
3 | City Budget | 87,767 | 236,593 | 309.106 | 603,667 | 1,237,133 |
II | Investment field | 241,523 | 384,275 | 881,649 | 1,146,441 | 2,653,888 |
1 | Traffic works | 52,052 | 63,481 | 315,585 | 353,962 | 785,080 |
2 | Agricultural and forestry works fisheries, irrigation | 32,478 | 72,711 | 225,385 | 250,049 | 580,623 |
3 | Medical facilities | 12,032 | 9,983 | 22,325 | 3.675 | 48,015 |
4 | Educational projects | 26,666 | 33,971 | 110,122 | 149,593 | 320,352 |
5 | Electrical works | 25,317 | 29,658 | 14,493 | 6.201 | 75,669 |
6 | Headquarters project | 25,683 | 24,190 | 21,912 | 66,791 | 138,576 |
7 | Infrastructure works | 51,355 | 46,620 | 73,425 | 185,917 | 357,317 |
8 | Renovation works urban | 7.209 | 10,655 | 61,037 | 84,822 | 163,723 |
9 | Service works, commerce | 73,511 | 8,816 | 82,327 | ||
10 | Cultural works | 3,442 | 7,450 | 23,147 | 30,491 | 64,530 |
11 | Other projects | 5,289 | 12,045 | 5.402 | 14,940 | 37,676 |
Appendix 7: Some socio-economic indicators for the period 2002 - 2014
Yearly Target
GRDP (current price) | GRDP per capita People | GRDP (comparative price) | Structure (current price) | |||||||
VND | USD | Total | Agriculture, forestry and fishery | Construction industry | Service | Agriculture, forestry and fishery | Construction industry | Service | ||
Billion VND | 1,000 VND/person | USD/person | Billion VND | Billion VND | Billion VND | % | % | % | ||
2002 | 753.2 | 10,408.0 | 717.8 | 522.39 | 81.3 | 63.5 | 377.6 | 15.59 | 12.97 | 71.44 |
2003 | 953.3 | 12,989.0 | 832.6 | 633.3 | 100.9 | 100.6 | 431.9 | 15.82 | 17.08 | 67.10 |
2004 | 1,060.0 | 14,215.0 | 908.3 | 745.9 | 138.9 | 128.9 | 478.1 | 19.16 | 13.99 | 66.85 |
2005 | 1,264.0 | 16,600.0 | 1,046.0 | 817.9 | 143.2 | 142.4 | 532.3 | 17.40 | 14.38 | 68.23 |
2006 | 1,476.0 | 19,100.0 | 1,185.0 | 935.7 | 153.3 | 161.2 | 621.2 | 16.96 | 13.86 | 69.18 |
2007 | 1,752.0 | 22,200.0 | 1,379.0 | 1,087.4 | 163.3 | 182.5 | 741.7 | 16.70 | 13.25 | 70.05 |
2008 | 2,038.0 | 24,300.0 | 1,433.0 | 1,259.1 | 173.6 | 205.9 | 879.7 | 15.05 | 12.86 | 72.09 |
2009 | 2,145.0 | 26,300.0 | 1,450.0 | 1,421.0 | 165.4 | 228.6 | 1,027.0 | 12.53 | 11.44 | 76.04 |
2010 | 3,017.1 | 33,126.8 | 1,699.2 | 1,530.2 | 143.9 | 252.9 | 1,133.4 | 11.53 | 10.94 | 77.52 |
2011 | 3,474.1 | 37,448.0 | 1,784.9 | 1,747.6 | 144.4 | 255.5 | 1,347.7 | 11.46 | 10.14 | 78.40 |
2012 | 3,708.5 | 39,383.0 | 1,890.0 | 1,823.7 | 155.9 | 321.7 | 1,346.2 | 12.51 | 11.92 | 75.57 |
2013 | 4,879.4 | 50,631.0 | 2,418.0 | 2,204.4 | 166.4 | 537.8 | 1,500.2 | 10.44 | 17.05 | 72.52 |
2014 | 6,392.0 | 64,468.0 | 3,054.0 | 2,863.2 | 172.7 | 1,016.0 | 1,674.5 | 8.07 | 27.25 | 64.68 |
Appendix 8: Budget investment capital for infrastructure sectors from 1996-2014
Unit: million VND
Year
Traffic | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, Irrigation | Medical | Education | Electricity | Headquarters | Infrastructure Urban | Commercial Services | Culture | Other | National Defense Security security | Total Investment Capital | |
1996 | 10,529.0 | 7,138.0 | 2,561.0 | 4,570.0 | 6,529.0 | 6,530.0 | 11,977.0 | 572.0 | 1,210.0 | 51,616.0 | ||
1997 | 11,498.0 | 6,528.0 | 1,560.0 | 5,269.0 | 7,640.0 | 4,157.0 | 11,053.0 | 794.0 | 1,124.0 | 49,623.0 | ||
1998 | 6,234.0 | 4,612.0 | 1,985.0 | 4,560.0 | 3,218.0 | 1,958.0 | 8,190.0 | 462.0 | 653.0 | 31,872.0 | ||
1999 | 7,901.0 | 5,673.0 | 2,350.0 | 4,963.0 | 2,541.0 | 4,128.0 | 10,757.0 | 696.0 | 845.0 | 39,854.0 | ||
2000 | 15,890.0 | 8,527.0 | 3,576.0 | 7,304.0 | 5,389.0 | 8,910.0 | 16,587.0 | 918.0 | 1,457.0 | 68,558.0 | ||
2001 | 6,133.0 | 6,711.0 | 1,323.0 | 2,863.0 | 5,974.0 | 2,413.0 | 900.0 | 26,317.0 | ||||
2002 | 6,076.2 | 13,956.5 | 482.7 | 5,508.6 | 6,753.6 | 5,604.5 | 9,228.2 | 1,085.1 | 345.6 | 2,609.5 | 51,650.5 | |
2003 | 11,671.4 | 18,766.1 | 3,585.6 | 12,439.8 | 9,393.7 | 9,134.0 | 19,743.4 | 21,427.2 | 909.5 | 4,318.5 | 111,389.3 | |
2004 | 15,007.1 | 4,270.3 | 2,361.3 | 7,306.7 | 3,164.2 | 5,293.6 | 17,039.5 | 46,241.0 | 3,352.4 | 3,657.7 | 117,693.7 | |
2005 | 24,593.5 | 19,007.0 | 2,230.0 | 5,852.5 | 4,372.3 | 4,157.4 | 8,851.5 | 4,757.4 | 2,842.5 | 559.0 | 77,223.2 | |
2006 | 23,812.4 | 30,041.3 | 2,013.3 | 6,157.1 | 3,397.3 | 4,335.2 | 7,416.3 | 5,415.7 | 1,714.2 | 177.5 | 84,480.2 | |
2007 | 50,590.6 | 41,910.3 | 3,796.9 | 6,832.9 | 2,018.8 | 5,014.2 | 9,144.9 | 3,209.0 | 3,856.8 | 1,374.1 | 127,748.6 | |
2008 | 57,569.1 | 28,457.1 | 4,059.4 | 17,040.4 | 5,667.0 | 2,506.4 | 26,228.6 | 141.8 | 3,796.5 | 1,690.2 | 147,156.4 | |
2009 | 67,583.0 | 74,560.7 | 2,769.0 | 36,991.9 | 1,346.2 | 3,823.4 | 23,250.4 | 50.0 | 4,193.4 | 1,118.8 | 215,686.7 | |
2010 | 116,029.5 | 50,415.1 | 9,686.5 | 43,100.2 | 2,063.8 | 6,232.5 | 68,421.1 | - | 9,585.9 | 1,041.5 | 306,576.1 | |
2011 | 127,478.8 | 93,359.4 | 3,565.4 | 61,976.7 | 51.2 | 10,213.3 | 115,006.4 | - | 13,705.5 | 4,131.8 | 429,488.6 | |
2012 | 114,552.0 | 40,248.0 | - | 22,304.2 | 4,659.4 | 14,061.1 | 52,936.2 | - | 3,392.2 | 574.2 | 252,727.3 | |
2013 | 59,447.0 | 53,180.0 | 110.0 | 35,947.0 | 500.0 | 8,388.0 | 46,902.0 | 4,522.0 | 208,996.0 | |||
2014 | 52,483.7 | 63,261.6 | 29,365.3 | 990.0 | 25,928.5 | 55,894.4 | 8,911.0 | 10,233.8 | 8,200.0 | 255,268.3 | ||
Total | 785,079.3 | 580,622.4 | 48,015.2 | 320,352.3 | 75,668.5 | 130,375.1 | 521,039.9 | 82,327.2 | 64,569.4 | 37,675.7 | 8,200.0 | 2,653,925.1 |
Appendix 9: Regression analysis of the impact of investment capital on GRDP growth of Mong Cai in the period 2000 - 2014; Basic data for regression analysis using SPSS 20.1 software
Year
Investment capital Billion VND | Accumulated investment capital Billion VND | Depreciation Billion VND | Total Current Investment Capital (V) Billion VND | GRDP (G) Billion VND | Social labor (L) thousand people | Ln(G) | LN(V) | LN(L) | Bank credit capital (billion VND) | |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
1996 | 51.6 | 51.6 | 1.72 | 49.88 | ||||||
1997 | 49.6 | 101.2 | 3.37 | 97.83 | ||||||
1998 | 31.9 | 133.1 | 4.44 | 128.66 | ||||||
1999 | 39.9 | 173.0 | 5.77 | 167.23 | ||||||
2000 | 165.8 | 338.8 | 11.29 | 327.51 | 533.1 | 36,459 | 6,279 | 5,792 | 10,504 | 43.7 |
2001 | 161.4 | 500.2 | 16.67 | 483.53 | 617.7 | 37,421 | 6,426 | 6,181 | 10.53 | 58.4 |
2002 | 235.1 | 735.3 | 24.51 | 710.79 | 753.2 | 38,101 | 6,624 | 6,566 | 10,548 | 182.0 |
2003 | 261.1 | 996.4 | 33.21 | 963.19 | 953.3 | 38,884 | 6.86 | 6.87 | 10,568 | 262.4 |
2004 | 427.7 | 1,424.1 | 47.47 | 1,376.63 | 1,060.0 | 39,347 | 6,966 | 7,227 | 10.58 | 209.9 |
2005 | 589.7 | 2,013.8 | 67.13 | 1,946.67 | 1,264.0 | 39,547 | 7,142 | 7,574 | 10,585 | 609.1 |
2006 | 816.6 | 2,830.4 | 94.35 | 2,736.05 | 1,476.0 | 40,162 | 7,297 | 7,914 | 10,601 | 951.8 |
2007 | 845.2 | 3,675.6 | 122.52 | 3,553.08 | 1,751.0 | 43,948 | 7,468 | 8,176 | 10,691 | 1,069.4 |
2008 | 980.6 | 4,656.2 | 155.21 | 4,500.99 | 2,037.6 | 47,760 | 7.62 | 8,412 | 10,774 | 1,215.0 |
2009 | 1,540.7 | 6,196.9 | 206.56 | 5,990.34 | 2,530.9 | 51,507 | 7,836 | 8,698 | 10,849 | 1,741.0 |
2010 | 1,962.0 | 8,158.9 | 271.96 | 7,886.94 | 3,017.0 | 52,600 | 8,012 | 8,973 | 10.87 | 2,692.0 |
2011 | 2,010.3 | 10,169.2 | 338.97 | 9,830.23 | 3,474.0 | 53,800 | 8,153 | 9,193 | 10,893 | 3,738.0 |
2012 | 2,832.5 | 13,001.7 | 433.39 | 12,568.31 | 3,708.0 | 54,721 | 8,218 | 9,439 | 10.91 | 3,833.0 |
2013 | 3,230.3 | 16,232.0 | 541.07 | 15,690.93 | 4,879.2 | 56,104 | 8,493 | 9,661 | 10,935 | 4,292.0 |
2014 | 3,079.8 | 19,311.8 | 643.73 | 18,668.07 | 6,392.0 | 57,642 | 8,763 | 9,835 | 10,962 | 4,258.0 |
2010- 2014 | 19,138.8 | 25,155.7 |
Spreadsheet description:
- Column (2): Investment capital in the year is compiled from the Mong Cai City Statistical Yearbook in 2004, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014.
- Column (3): equal to column (2) calculated cumulatively over the years.
- Column (4): depreciation per year assuming uniform depreciation over 30 years.
- Column (5): Current investment capital at the end of the year, calculated as follows:
Inventory in year J = Inventory in year J-1 + Inventory in year J – Depreciation in year j.
- Column (6) and column (7) are compiled from the statistical yearbook of Mong Cai.
- Ln: Logarithm to base e.
Consider choosing the appropriate regression model.
Describe the variables according to the appendix above.
Descriptive Statistics (Descriptive statistics of variables)
N | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Std. Deviation | |
Investment capital (billion VND) | 19 | 31.9 | 3230.3 | 948,432 | 1014.5144 |
Depreciation (billion VND) | 19 | 1.72 | 600.67 | 150,7621 | 182.57322 |
Total existing investment capital (Billion VND) | 19 | 49.88 | 17419.53 | 4372.1063 | 5294.63862 |
GRDP (G) (Billion VND) | 15 | 533.1 | 6392.0 | 2296,467 | 1714.2904 |
Labor L (thousand people) | 15 | 36459 | 57642 | 45866.87 | 7806,132 |
Number of suitable observations N (Do some years are not enough) | 15 |
In this section, using statistical data published from 2000 to 2014, the researcher examines some basic regression models to evaluate the factors affecting GRDP growth and the level of suitability with the economic situation of Mong Cai area. The basic regression functions used in the thesis include:
1. The Cobb-Douglas production function has an intercept: G = aV α .L β
2. The Cobb-Douglas production function has no intercept: G = V α .L β
3. Linear regression function with intercept: G = a + α.V + β.L
4. Linear regression function without intercept: G = α.V + β.L
Regression results on SPSS version 20.1 software with OLS (Ordinary Least Square) as the basis with significance level α=0.05. All data used in the regression are taken from 2000 to 2014 (due to lack of necessary data for observations before 2000).
Model 1. Cobb-Douglas production function with intercept: G = a.Vα.Lβ (1)
(1) Converted as: Ln(G) = Ln(a) + αLn(V) + βLn(L) (1*). Using SPSS 20.1 software and linear regression according to (1*) has the following results:
Model Summary
Model
R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate | |
1 | ,995a | ,990 | ,988 | ,083679 |
ANOVAa
Model
Sum of Squares | df | Mean Square | F | Sig. | ||
Regression | 8,098 | 2 | 4,049 | 578,225 | ,000b | |
1 | Residual | ,084 | 12 | ,007 | ||
Total | 8,182 | 14 |
Coefficient
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | |||
B | Std. Error | Beta | ||||
(Constant) | -7,112 | 4,602 | -1,545 | ,148 | ||
1 | LN(V) | ,458 | ,062 | ,776 | 7,403 | ,000 |
LN(L) | 1,018 | ,474 | ,225 | 2,149 | ,053 | |
Looking at the regression results table (Coefficients), we see that only the estimated coefficient of Ln(V) is statistically significant at the α =0.05 level (because the sigma value of this coefficient = 0.000 < α=0.05, while the sigma of the intercept coefficient and Ln(L) has a value greater than 0.05.