Table 3.1: Forecast of Vietnam's paper consumption demand to 2020
Target
Unit | Year 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |
Population | million | 89 | 95 | 100 |
GDP growth | % | 7.5 – 8 | 7.5 – 8 | 7.5 - 8 |
Paper consumption/person/year | kg | 22 – 23 | 33 – 34 | 50 -51 |
Total paper demand/year | 1,000 names | 1,980 | 3,190 | 5,100 |
In there: | 1,000 names | |||
- Printing and writing paper | 385 | 620 | 1,000 | |
- Newsprint | 120 | 190 | 300 | |
- Industrial packaging paper | 1,150 | 1,850 | 2,980 | |
- Other paper | 325 | 530 | 820 |
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Source: Ministry of Industry (2005), Adjusted planning for the development of Vietnam's paper industry to 2010 - vision to 2020.
The forecast figures for Vietnam's paper consumption by 2010 are 1,980,000 tons/year; 2015 is 3,190,000 tons/year and 2020 is 5,100,000 tons/year. The above forecasted paper consumption levels are calculated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade based on the analysis of a number of basic factors that have appeared and will appear in the Vietnamese economy affecting GDP growth rate, industrial growth and export growth, as well as population growth rate and the general development level of the whole society. In addition, based on the annual paper consumption level from statistics of many previous years, the forecast for the annual paper consumption level for each corresponding period is 22-23 kg in 2010; 33-34 kg in 2015 and 50-51 kg in 2020.
According to the author's comments, the level of paper consumption per person/year in the table
3.1 Although calculated based on many practical and scientific bases, it is necessary to review and adjust to suit the context of the economy moving into the period of economic integration. At the same time, from the results of the research on the development situation, the author used statistical data on paper consumption per person per year from 1995-2006 and applied Excel software to forecast the demand for paper consumption per person per year in Vietnam until 2020 (Figure 3.1 and Appendix 9). According to this forecast, the paper consumption per person by 2010 was higher than the forecast figure given by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and in 2015 the forecast level was higher than the forecast figure.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
43,025
34,288
25,551
14.94 16.1
18.67
10
5 2,592,612.46 4.24
0
12.6182.6192.18
6,386,65
kg / day
The forecast is similar, but the 2020 forecast is lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
19 95
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20 00
20 01
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20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
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20 11
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20 13
20 14
20 15
20 16
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20 19
20 20
Source: Vietnam Paper Corporation and author's calculation
Figure 3.1 : Forecast of paper consumption per person per year in Vietnam until 2020
The difference between the two forecast figures on paper consumption per person per year leads to a deviation in the forecast figures on total paper consumption in Vietnam in the corresponding periods. According to the author's forecast figures and the forecast of population growth rate of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total paper consumption in Vietnam will be: 2,270,000 tons in 2010, and 2,270,000 tons in 2015.
3,260,000 tons and 4,300,000 tons in 2020. This figure is different from the forecast figure of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the Paper Industry Development Plan - 2020 respectively: 1,980,000 tons in 2010, 3,190,000 in 2015 and 5,100,000 tons in 2020. From the reality of the difference in the forecasted figures in two ways and the influencing factors, it is necessary to adjust the forecast level to suit the changes in the environment affecting supply and demand (Figure 3.1). From there, a more accurate figure is obtained, creating conditions for
Adjust strategic direction.
In the Ministry of Industry and Trade's 2020 Paper Industry Adjustment Plan,
dw provides forecast data on paper and pulp production capacity and production capacity of some main paper products of Vietnam's paper industry in the periods of 2010, 2015 and 2020. Those data are presented in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2: Output target of Vietnam's paper industry by 2020
(unit: 1,000 tons)
TT
Generic | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |
1 | Paper production | 1,380 | 2,230 | 3,600 |
Printing and writing paper | 340 | 555 | 890 | |
Newsprint | 100 | 130 | 210 | |
Packaging paper | 650 | 1,000 | 1,600 | |
Other paper | 290 | 545 | 900,000 | |
2 | Pulp production | 600 | 1,000 | 1,800 |
Pulp from wood, bamboo | 360 | 700 | 1,300 | |
CTMP | 40 | 60 | 100 | |
Semi-chemical powder | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
Powder from other materials | 100 | 140 | 300 |
Source: Paper Industry Information, No. 158, February 2006, p. 6
The forecasted figures on pulp and paper output that can be achieved in the periods from now to 2020, if compared with the forecasted figures on paper consumption demand in the Adjusted Plan for the Paper Industry - 2020, the capacity to meet the consumption demand of the paper industry for pulp and paper is shown in Table 3.3. Table 3.3: Balance of consumption demand and output of Vietnam's paper industry to 2020
Soft (single | consumer demand position: 1000 tons) | Output (unit: 1000 tons) | damaged | meet the needs (unit: %) | ||||||
TT | Generic | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 |
1 | Paper production | 1,980 | 3,190 | 5,100 | 1,380 | 2,230 | 3,600 | 69.7 | 57 | 70.6 |
- Printing and writing paper | 385 | 620 | 1,000 | 340 | 555 | 890 | 88.3 | 89.5 | 89 | |
- Newsprint | 300 | 190 | 120 | 100 | 130 | 210 | 8.33 | 68.4 | 70 | |
- Packaging paper | 2,980 | 1,850 | 1,150 | 650 | 1,000 | 1,600 | 56.5 | 54.1 | 53.7 | |
- Other paper | 325 | 820 | 530 | 290 | 545 | 900 | 89.2 | 102.8 | 1,098 | |
2 | Pulp production* | 1,380 | 2,230 | 3,600 | 600 | 1,000 | 1,800 | 43 | 44 | 50 |
Source: Paper Industry Information, No. 158, February 2006, p. 6 and author's calculations
* Virgin pulp
From the forecasted balance of production capacity and paper consumption demand in Table 3.3, it shows that there is a large gap between the ability to meet demand and paper consumption demand as well as between pulp and paper output. This imbalance has been and is happening (as analyzed in Chapter 2) and will continue to happen until 2020. This is both an advantage and a challenge for the development of the Vietnamese paper industry. The favorable condition is that paper consumption demand
in the domestic market is still quite large. However, the difficulty and challenge is that in the context of international economic integration, when Vietnam becomes a member of the WTO, many foreign paper products penetrate and compete in the Vietnamese market. These competitors are all highly competitive, the competitive tools are quality and price. In the context of the Vietnamese paper industry, most of the enterprises are small and medium-sized, with outdated production technology, old and unsynchronized machinery and equipment, so the ability to compete with the two tools of quality and cost is a big challenge. However, in the context of international economic integration, it also creates many opportunities for the Vietnamese paper industry such as the ability to attract foreign investment capital and technology for development.
In order for the Vietnamese paper industry to develop and gain a larger market share in the domestic market, in addition to strategic solutions to improve quality, reduce costs, and attract domestic and foreign investment capital, one of the
The most important condition is to innovate cognitive thinking and innovate management mechanisms at all levels from enterprises, industries, ministries and government.
3.1.1.2 Orientation of development strategy and strategy to improve competitiveness of Vietnam's paper industry
From the current situation of paper industry development, paper demand response coefficient, opportunities and challenges for Vietnam's paper industry in the development strategy to 2020 in the context of international economic integration, according to the author, the paper industry development strategy needs to focus on the following main oriented goals:
- By 2020, Vietnam's economy will basically shift from an agricultural-industrial-service structure to an industrial-service-agricultural structure developing towards industrialization and modernization. In addition, Vietnam's economy develops in the context of deep and wide international economic integration, so the paper industry needs to be prioritized for investment and development to become one of the important economic sectors in the industrial structure in particular and the economic structure in general.
- Regarding the scale and type of enterprise, it is necessary to combine both types of joint ventures and independent enterprises. For joint ventures, it is necessary to expand the level of integration both vertically and horizontally. Vertically, it is possible to expand the integration between forest planting - raw material processing - pulp processing - paper production and production of consumer products from paper.
For this type of enterprise, it is necessary to have a large scale and modern technology level. At the same time, with the development of large-scale joint enterprises, depending on the characteristics of raw material areas and consumption markets, it is possible to build independent enterprises with small and medium scale, such as enterprises processing raw materials from wood located in raw material areas; enterprises producing pulp from pre-processed bamboo and other waste should be located in places with conditions to minimize environmental pollution. Enterprises making paper and producing paper products should be located near consumption areas.
- Developing the paper industry requires balanced investment and synchronous development of production capacity between raw material forest planting, pulp production and paper making. With the current specific conditions of our country, to improve pulp production capacity, it is necessary to focus on investing in raw material areas, building technical infrastructure systems, especially waterway and road transport systems to ensure
conditions of transportation and supply of raw materials.
- Focus on investing in technological innovation between stages of the process of supplying paper materials, producing pulp, paper and paper products. Depending on the characteristics and production needs of each stage, choose the appropriate direction and level of modernity. For example, for the forest planting stage, it is necessary to focus on applying science and technology to the stage of selecting tree varieties, the pulp production stage needs to focus on applying technology to reduce environmental pollution and improve the quality of pulp, the paper making stage needs to focus on technology aimed at improving quality...
- Regarding investment, it is necessary to focus capital on large pulp and paper production projects; modernize and expand the scale of some existing factories that have brands in the market such as Bwi Bang, Tan Mai, Viet Tri paper factories... at the same time
continue to mobilize capital for new but unfinished construction projects such as Thanh Hoa and Kon Tum pulp and paper production projects. In addition to investing in modernization and new construction to improve the production capacity of the paper industry, it is also necessary to invest in concentrated paper material areas in the Northern Midlands and Mountains (135,000 ha), the Southeast region (135,000 ha), the Northwest region of Thanh Hoa (50,000 ha), and the Kon Tum region (90,000 ha).
- In the development strategy of Vietnam's paper industry until 2020, it is necessary to build a strategy to improve competitiveness, considering this an important part of the development strategy. This strategy is built on the basis of forecasting the domestic market, the world market and the development potential of the paper industry. In the competitive strategy, it is necessary to fully and comprehensively analyze the strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities and challenges to propose solutions to promote competition within the Vietnamese paper industry and thereby enhance the competitiveness of the Vietnamese paper industry compared to the paper industries of countries that have and will have the same domestic and international product consumption markets.
Along with determining the strategic goals for the development of the paper industry to increase the output of pulp and paper production, it is also necessary to determine the strategic goals for improving the competitiveness of the paper industry. The strategic goals for the development of the paper industry presented above are both the basis for determining the strategic goals and important solutions to improve competitiveness. However, in the strategy to improve competitiveness, it is also necessary to determine
set more specific goals. These goals are:
- It is necessary to build a reasonable roadmap for the strategic goal of improving competitiveness in each period. From now until 2010 and 2015, focus on solutions to improve competitiveness with competitors in the domestic market to expand domestic market share. At the same time, rely on the advantages of some products with competitive advantages to expand export markets. From 2015 to 2020 and after 2020, the main goal is to invest to meet domestic consumption needs in terms of quantity and quality and gradually promote exports in the markets of countries in the region for some paper products with competitive advantages.
- Using data on pulp and paper output of Vietnam's paper industry, the amount of pulp and paper imported by Vietnam since 2000
to 2007, as well as through the analysis of actual factors affecting the improvement of competitiveness and the analysis of strengths, weaknesses, challenges, and opportunities for the Vietnamese paper industry, the author calculated the forecast indicators of product market share and four other indicators reflecting competitiveness. The calculation results are presented in Figure 3.2, 3.3 and Table 3.4.
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0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 2020
Market share
(unit: %)
Figure 3.2: Market share of pulp of Vietnam's paper industry in the domestic market by 2020
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market share
(unit: %)
1995
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Figure 3.3: Market share of paper products of Vietnam's paper industry in the domestic market by 2020
Table 3.4: Forecast of the ability to increase the competitiveness of Vietnam's paper industry by 2020 according to four main indicators
2006 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | |
PIM failure | ||||
Newsprint | 0.0006 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.030 |
Other paper and paperboard | 0.0479 | 0.060 | 0.095 | 0.350 |
Printing and writing paper | 0.0013 | 0.020 | 0.085 | 0.200 |
RAC FAILURE | ||||
Newsprint | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.035 | 0.25 |
Other paper and paperboard | 0.167 | 0.250 | 0.800 | 1,100 |
Printing and writing paper | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.015 | 0.100 |
IPR ratio | ||||
Newsprint | 39.11 | 30.00 | 25.00 | 20.00 |
Other paper and paperboard | 23.17 | 20.00 | 15.00 | 10.00 |
Printing and writing paper | 64.51 | 55.00 | 45.00 | 30.00 |
EIC ratio | ||||
Newsprint | 38.99 | 35.00 | 30.00 | 25.00 |
Other paper and paperboard | 22.53 | 20.00 | 15.00 | 10.00 |
Printing and writing paper | 63.93 | 60.00 | 55.00 | 50.00 |
3.1.2 Basic viewpoints on improving the competitiveness of Vietnam's paper industry in the context of international economic integration
As presented above, competitive strategy is an important part.
in the development strategy of the paper industry. On the other hand, the development strategy is both the goal and the conditions for improving competitiveness. The other strategic parts of the development strategy themselves are also strategic solutions to effectively implement the competitive strategy. In setting goals and in the process of implementing the strategy to improve competitiveness in the context of international economic integration, according to the author, it is necessary to thoroughly grasp the following basic viewpoints:
3.1.2.1 The strategy to improve the competitiveness of the Vietnamese paper industry must exploit strengths, seize opportunities, overcome weaknesses and limit risks.
Vietnam has great potential to improve the competitiveness of the paper industry such as large domestic market demand with over 80 million people, high