Current Status of Risk Management in Foreign Exchange Trading in the International Market of Vietnamese Commercial Banks


Net income growth from foreign exchange activities at BIDV was relatively fast. In the following years, 2009 and 2010 tended to decrease compared to 2008 for many reasons. The first reason was that the competitive environment among banks was increasingly tense. Many other commercial banks in the area began to promote the application of professional techniques in foreign exchange trading, partly because they wanted to compete to attract customers, partly because they wanted to increase the profits of the entire bank. The second reason was that the USD/VND exchange rate during this period was always in a state of tension, the situation of two exchange rates in foreign exchange trading activities at banks due to the ceiling exchange rate in foreign exchange trading transactions according to the regulations of the State Bank of Vietnam caused more difficulties for banks and businesses. In order to meet the needs of customers and not violate the regulations of the State Bank of Vietnam, a part of the exchange rate difference in foreign exchange transactions was accounted for by the units as service revenue of the bank. Therefore, net income from foreign trade reflected in the annual report does not completely accurately reflect the actual profit from the bank's foreign trade activities.

VCB is the bank with the highest foreign exchange income in the Vietnamese commercial banking system. The peak was in 2011 with a profit of VND 1,179,584 million, accounting for 64.8% of the total income of the commercial bank. This was followed by 2009 with a profit of VND 925,290 million, accounting for 59%. However, in 2010, foreign exchange income only reached VND 570,009 million, down 38.4%. The reason in 2010 was that the complicated fluctuations from the world economic situation and the fluctuations in the domestic USD/VND exchange rate put pressure on VCB's foreign exchange business. The most important goal of banks is maximum profit. However, VCB identifies the top goal and focus of the bank as meeting the needs of customers. The bank's foreign exchange business has contributed a significant proportion to the bank's profits. The smallest contribution was 9.53% in 2006 and the largest was 23.46% in 2008. Overall for the whole period, the average proportion of foreign exchange business income was 9.53% in 2006 and 23.46% in 2008.


Foreign exchange business compared to bank profit is 14.6%.


VCB's foreign exchange business development has reached a certain level, demonstrated through the scale of income in the following year being higher than the previous year and the ratio of foreign exchange business income to profit between years is different but in general there is a significant increase.

For the group of joint-stock commercial banks, the income rate from foreign exchange trading activities reached 2.4%, lower than that of the group of state-owned commercial banks (reaching 9.9%). ACB achieved a relatively high rate, an average of 8.7%, much higher than Agribank and Vietinbank. Techcombank had the lowest income from foreign exchange trading activities in both groups, an average of -5.8%. This shows that the development of Techcombank's foreign exchange trading activities is still limited in both quantity and quality.

In terms of foreign exchange trading income structure, the income from spot transactions is the main source, with an average of 116.8% in the period 2006-2011, and derivative transactions -16.8%. The income from derivative transactions decreased throughout the period except for 2007, and even in the period 2009-2010, the income from derivative transactions was negative. For the group of state-owned commercial banks, most derivative transactions were unprofitable, such as Vietinbank, which lost money for 6 years, and VCB, which lost money in the period 2009-2010. The reason is that in 2009-2010, when factors of the domestic and world economies fluctuated, Vietnamese commercial banks conducted derivative transactions in an attempt to maintain the bank's customers and accepted losses for these transactions. As for the group of joint stock commercial banks, although the transaction turnover is low, joint stock commercial banks have achieved certain results for derivative transactions. In 2011, spot transaction income increased strongly by 84.8%, although derivative transaction income was at a loss, it decreased significantly compared to 2010. The reason for the above results is that Vietnamese commercial banks have actively balanced foreign currency for the economy and are the focal point for supporting import and export activities. In the context of tight foreign exchange policy and stable exchange rates, Vietnamese commercial banks have implemented many flexible solutions, expanding the exploitation of foreign currency sources to meet the requirements.


2500000


2000000


1500000


1000000


500000


0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-500000


-1000000

Immediate delivery

Derivatives

Million VND

commitment to import and export needs of goods. (Appendix 2)


Chart 2.5 Foreign currency trading income of Vietnamese commercial banks in the period 2006-2011

( Source: Annual Report of Vietnam Commercial Bank for the period 2006-2011)

Thus, Vietnamese commercial banks have made progress in foreign exchange trading activities through diversifying transaction operations and foreign currencies in trading. However, Vietnamese commercial banks need to develop options trading more strongly in both quantity and quality and apply futures trading in foreign exchange trading to minimize risks in banking business.

In summary, the assessment of the foreign exchange business development of Vietnamese commercial banks through the analysis of data shows that the quality of the operation is not yet developed. Compared to the average, most years are lower than the average rate, except for 2008. In addition, according to the assessment criteria, the rate of the following year is higher than the previous year, most years have negative growth, except for 2008.


2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

600.0


400.0


200.0


0.0

Agribank

BIDV

VCB

Vietinbank

ACB

Techcombank

-200.0


-400.0


-600.0


-800.0


-1000.0


Chart 2.6 Growth in foreign exchange trading income of Vietnamese commercial banks

( Source: Annual Report of Vietnamese Commercial Banks 2006-2011)

2.2.2.4 Current status of risk management in foreign exchange trading in the international market of Vietnamese commercial banks

The development of foreign currency trading of Vietnamese commercial banks is assessed through the level of risk in foreign currency trading, especially exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk occurs when the bank maintains an open exchange position with a certain foreign currency. Therefore, when the exchange rate of that foreign currency changes unfavorably, it leads to losses for the bank. Therefore, measuring the level of risk for each individual foreign currency and for the foreign currency portfolio is the basis for assessing the development of foreign currency trading of Vietnamese commercial banks.

Data from 2006 shows that, among the main foreign currencies that Vietnamese commercial banks trade, USD is the currency with the lowest risk level, with a coefficient of 0.13%, followed by HKD, with a risk level of 0.14%. AUD is the currency with the highest risk level of 2.75%. However, the data also shows that foreign currencies have a close relationship with each other, shown through the correlation coefficient of VND with foreign currencies. USD is the currency with the lowest correlation coefficient compared to EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF. SGD, THB but


has a relatively high correlation coefficient compared to the HKD, with a coefficient of 0.81. In contrast, the JPY has a high correlation coefficient with all currencies except the CAD and HKD. In addition, the exchange rate fluctuations of the USD/GBP reflect an inverse correlation relationship, that is, the correlation coefficient between USD, GBP and VND is -0.12. That is, if the USD increases in value, the GBP will decrease in value and vice versa. Thus, through the analysis of the correlation coefficient, it can be seen that in order to reduce business risks, banks need to maintain a long position on the USD and a short position on the JPY. (Appendix 3)

In 2007, the exchange rate fluctuations of currencies showed that the correlation coefficients of VND with major currencies were low. USD was still the currency with the lowest correlation coefficient compared to the remaining currencies, along with HKD. However, USD had a negative correlation coefficient with EUR, AUD and SGD. This showed that the exchange rate fluctuations between these currencies were in opposite directions. EUR had a relatively high correlation coefficient compared to other currencies, followed by AUD. Therefore, maintaining a long position on currencies in banks can achieve high benefits in foreign exchange trading.

In terms of risk level, in 2007, SGD was still the currency with the lowest risk, followed by USD. AUD was the currency with the highest risk, followed by THB with risk levels of 3.47% and 3.3% respectively. However, the trading volume of these currencies accounted for a small proportion. Therefore, banks can minimize the risks when trading these currencies. (Appendix 4)

In 2008, due to the fluctuation of exchange rates of most currencies with large fluctuations, the risk level when trading foreign currencies increased. As evidence, the standard deviation of EUR increased by nearly 324%, JPY increased by more than 114% and USD also increased by more than 283%. The reason for the strong fluctuation of exchange rates of currencies is due to the relatively high level of liberalization of capital transactions, due to fluctuations


Investment capital flows, especially indirect capital flows, have strongly affected foreign currency supply and demand and exchange rates. In 2008, indirect investment capital flows have fluctuated continuously, causing an imbalance in foreign currency supply and demand. This capital flow increased significantly in the first three months of 2008, causing pressure to increase the VND price. Then, when the world economic situation continued to be difficult, the domestic economy faced inflation, and the trade deficit increased, the VND showed signs of depreciation, increasing the demand for foreign currency. The unpredictable fluctuations of the world economy and financial markets as well as the domestic market have negatively affected the balance of foreign currency supply and demand in the country and ultimately impacted the exchange rate.

In 2009-2010, the risk level of foreign currencies gradually decreased, except for the HKD, which had an increased risk level in 2010. Thus, when considering the risk level of foreign currencies, the USD is the currency with the largest trading turnover compared to other currencies, but has the lowest risk level in bank transactions. The EUR and JPY have relatively high risk levels. In addition, the GBP and AUD maintain a high risk coefficient.

In the first months of 2011, there were dramatic events in the world economy, when the public debt crisis broke out in both Europe and now the US. In particular, global inflation will continue to increase if the US has no other way but to continue issuing new consumer stimulus packages and even printing more dollars to pay off debts. In such a context, the domestic economy, which is already in difficulty, is facing even more risks. The risk of continued high inflation means that interest rates and exchange rates will continue to be unstable. The instability of exchange rates in the first 3 months of 2011 is the result of the exchange rate policy left over from 2010. The pressure of the foreign exchange market weighed heavily on the shoulders of those who managed the exchange rate policy in the last months of 2010 and early 2011. However, with the management of the State Bank with strong adjustment measures according to market signals, the exchange rate was adjusted to increase by 9.3%, plus other administrative measures such as capping the USD mobilization interest rate of commercial banks from 6% to below 2%, implementing foreign exchange and expanding the subjects.


foreign exchange, handling a series of illegal foreign exchange transactions in the free market. Therefore, the risk for foreign currencies of commercial banks tends to decrease, except for USD which increased by 0.58%. EUR and JPY have a sharp decrease in risk, respectively 1.34% and 1.65%.

Table 2.13 Standard deviation of exchange rate changes/month of some foreign currencies of Vietnamese commercial banks

Unit:%


Foreign currency

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 2011 TB

USD

0.13

0.37

1.42

1.10

1.11

1.69

1.11

EUR

2.14

1.46

6.20

4.61

4.56

3.21

4.03

JPY

2.00

2.31

4.96

4.93

2.95

1.3

3.38

GBP

2.33

1.33

4.44

4.93

3.38

2.13

3.35

AUD

2.75

3.47

7.51

4.78

4.34

3.88

4.7

CAD

1.96

2.82

5.71

4.14

3.13

2.34

3.58

CHF

2.62

1.84

6.56

4.1

3.87

3.76

4.07

HKD

0.14

0.39

2.86

1.84

2.43

0.9

1.75

SGD

1.08

0.70

3.96

3.06

2.34

2.6

2.55

THB

1.72

3.32

5.82

1.10

2.50

2.0

3.14

TB

6

2.1

5.24

3.78

3.2

2.56

3.3

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Current Status of Risk Management in Foreign Exchange Trading in the International Market of Vietnamese Commercial Banks

(Source: Foreign exchange rate report of State Bank of Vietnam 2006-2011)

In general, the standard deviation of the exchange rate changes of the main foreign currencies of Vietnamese commercial banks in the period 2006-2011 tended to decrease, except for 2008. Thus, it can be seen that the development of foreign currency trading of Vietnamese commercial banks has achieved qualitative development, as evidenced by the standard deviation in 2011 decreasing by 3.44% compared to 2006, 0.64% compared to 2010. In which, trading in USD has the lowest risk and CHF has the highest risk.

However, assessing the risk for each foreign currency individually, i.e. looking at the open position for each foreign currency, then the foreign exchange risk is overstated.


Because the exchange rate changes between currencies are inversely related, the profit from maintaining an open position in one currency can offset the loss from maintaining an open position in another currency. Therefore, the risk assessment of foreign exchange trading needs to be calculated for the entire foreign exchange portfolio.

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Table 2.14 Risk coefficients for some strong currencies ( 2 ) (USD, EUR, JPY)


Unit of measure %


Target

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

TB

Agribank

0.11

0.13

0.07

2.34

2.98

2.76

1.40

BIDV

0.08

0.06

0.045

0.03

0.44

0.53

0.20

VCB

0.015

0.067

0.023

0.012

0.466

0.51

0.18

Vietinbank

0.02

0.12

3.58

2.92

3.53

3.12

2.22

ACB

0.032

0.014

2

1.49

6.24

3.56

2.22

Techcombank

0.021

0.015

1.84

1.37

3.42

2.98

1.61

TB

0.046

0.068

1,260

1,360

2,846

2,243

1.3

(Source: Report on performance of Vietnamese commercial banks 2006-2011)

Studying the fluctuations of three currencies USD, EUR, JPY corresponding to three economic axes: the US, Europe and Asia, represented by Japan, to see the impacts of changes in the exchange rates of these three currencies on foreign currency trading income of Vietnamese commercial banks. For strong currencies such as USD, EUR, JPY, foreign exchange risks for all three currencies fluctuate erratically. The evidence is that the risk level when trading with the three currencies is high, reaching 0.466% in 2010. The reason for the increase in the risk level of strong currencies is that in 2010, the exchange rates of USD and JPY increased. There were times like July 9, 2010, the exchange rate of JPY/VND increased by about 8% compared to December 31, 2009. The demand for JPY increased because other economies did not prosper, mainly relying on Asian economies. In addition, China's increased purchase of Japanese bonds is also a cause of the increase.

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