Test Results for Stationarity of Data Series

In 2009, both VN - Index and oil prices recovered significantly (VN-Index increased by 57 %, oil prices increased by nearly 40%), however, in 2010 and 2011, oil prices continued to grow impressively while stock prices decreased, going against the general trend of the world economy.

Oil prices and VN-Index fluctuated in the same direction (increased ) in the first months of 2012, but then both decreased relatively , the result in 2013 was more positive when VN-Index increased by 22.2 % and oil prices increased by about 7 %. In 2014 , VN-Index and oil prices both had short-term price fluctuations, and oil prices decreased relatively ( about 30 %) compared to the beginning of the year , VN-Index was on the rise ( increased by 21 % in the first 9 months of the year ) also decreased slightly and increased by 7 % for the whole year . In 2015, oil prices continued to plummet, by December they had fallen 21.25% compared to the beginning of the year. The sharpest declines were in July (down 15% compared to the previous month) and August (down 15.8% compared to the previous month). VN-Index fell from 638.69 points (July 14) to a bottom of 526.93 points (August 24). After that, both oil prices and the stock market recovered, but from October they followed a downward trend.

Lending interest rates in 2006 and 2007 were maintained at a stable level of 11.8%, the stock market made adjustments during this period, and there was almost no impact of interest rates on stock prices during this period. Right from the beginning of 2008, interest rates showed signs of increasing from commercial banks, and tight monetary policies to control inflation and stabilize the macro economy made interest rates even higher ( 19-20 %), and only after the third quarter did interest rates show signs of decreasing, but the VN-Index

still following the general downward trend of 40 %. This shows that although the interest rate is stable ,

The VN-Index is in the opposite direction, but interest rates are not the decisive factor in stock prices during this time.

After the 2008 interest rate fluctuations , the 2009 interest rate has stabilized and decreased significantly compared to 2008 (fluctuating around 9%), at this time VN-Index also showed a recovery from

235.5 points (February 24) to 494.77 points at the end of the year ( up 57 %). However, in the middle of the year , interest rate tension reappeared , lending interest rates were pushed up (10.46%) and VN-Index tended to decrease during this period. In 2010 , interest rates were stable at (12-13%), VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range . In 2011 , inflation showed signs of increasing , causing interest rates to increase again (18.09% in the second and third quarters), high capital costs combined with bank deposit interest rates increased again, causing cash flow into the stock market to decrease and VN-Index to decrease seriously.

In 2012, thanks to the State Bank reducing the ceiling interest rate on deposits , lending interest rates also decreased (fluctuating from 12% - 13%), thanks to which the stock market recovered (VN-Index increased by 17% ) . In the face of the difficult economic situation , the State Bank also introduced many measures to cut interest rates, specifically lending interest rates were adjusted down by 3% - 4%, corresponding to VN -Index increasing by 22.2% (in 2013 ) and 13% (in 2014 ) compared to the previous year . In the first 7 months of 2015, lending interest rates were kept fixed at 7.23% and then decreased to 6.96% until the end of the year. During this period, interest rates fluctuated little and did not have much impact on the VN-Index.