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Statistical study of the total impact of tourism on economic growth in Vietnam - 2


LIST OF CHARTS

Chart 3.1. Number of international visitors to Vietnam from 2001 to 2015 ...

Chart 3.2: Total added value structure of international tourism to Vietnam in 2013 94

Chart 3.3: Total added value structure of domestic tourism in Vietnam in 2013 95

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INTRODUCTION

1. Reasons for choosing the topic

Statistical study of the total impact of tourism on economic growth in Vietnam - 2

Tourism activities play an increasingly important role in socio-economic development. Tourism is becoming an indispensable need in people's cultural and social life. Moreover, along with economic development, the demand for tourism is constantly increasing with increasingly diverse forms of tourism. Tourism is considered a smokeless industry because it has had a significant impact and contribution to the economic growth of many territories and countries around the world. According to statistics from the World Travel & Tourism Council -WTTC (2012), total revenue generated from tourism accounts for about 9.2% of global gross domestic product (GDP) with over 6.5 trillion USD and jobs for more than 260 million people. It is forecasted that in the next ten years, with an average growth rate of about 4% per year, tourism activities will create a value of about 10% of global GDP, equivalent to 10 trillion USD per year. The economy develops, people's lives are increasingly improved, tourism becomes a standard to assess the living standards and quality of life of all social classes. Consumer products in tourism are both to meet the essential needs of daily life (eating, dressing, staying, traveling, etc.), and to satisfy special human needs (learning, exploring nature, culture, history, etc.). Therefore, tourism activities are related to many sectors operating in the economy. The level of influence and spread of tourism activities on the economy in inter-sectoral and inter-national relationships is very significant. To be able to observe, measure, evaluate and analyze tourism activities, it is necessary to have a scientific and unified methodology on an international scale. Up to now, there have been many different ways to evaluate and record the impacts of tourism activities on socio-economic development. The impact of tourism activities can be assessed based on direct measurement of tourism performance (from the supply side): by revenue, capital, labor, etc. or by total tourist spending (from the demand side). The question is which assessment method is the most comprehensive and comprehensive while allowing for detailed breakdown by type of tourist to measure the impact, while also considering, evaluating and analyzing their contributions to the domestic and global economy.

1.1. Overview of the research problem

In the world and in the country, many organizations and individuals have researched, measured and evaluated the impact of tourism activities on economic growth within a region or a country.


1.1.1. Foreign research works

Published documents abroad on tourism include documents aimed at identifying, describing and reflecting the results of tourism activities and studies on assessing, measuring the impact and contribution of tourism to economic growth.

1.1.1.1. Studies reflecting tourism performance

In foreign documents related to the identification and description of tourism activities, it is necessary to first mention the Tourism Satellite Account (abbreviated as TSA) compiled by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) within the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA) which has been widely recognized and applied worldwide and the latest version was introduced in 2009 in the United Nations (2009).

(1). Tourism satellite account

The formation and development process of TSA associated with SNA has been mentioned in detail in United Nations (2009, pp.20-22).

In 1983, the fifth meeting of the UNWTO General Assembly in New Zealand presented a report explaining the possibilities of describing the tourism sector based on the recommendations of the 1968 SNA. The report stressed the importance of an approach to tourism activities as a unified, comprehensive and comparability instrument with other economic sectors. This report is considered a common guide for most of the UNWTO's international activities, concepts and statistics.

In 1985, the OECD initiated the integration of tourism statistics into the SNA. In developing the Tourism Economic Accounts (TEA) Handbook, the OECD considered the complex issues involved in measuring tourism statistics, including the integration of the supply of tourism activities and tourist consumption, as well as the treatment of package tours.

In 1991, the International Conference on Tourism and Travel Statistics held in Ottawa from 24 to 28 June 1991, UNWTO laid the foundation for the development of statistical definitions of international and domestic tourism, as well as the classification of tourism activities, and other issues related to international statistics. The conference paid special attention to the integration of tourism information systems with SNA. TSA is mainly descriptive in nature and does not measure the indirect effects and effects generated by tourist consumption on the whole economy. This means that the impacts of tourism on the economy are not fully reflected and


Comprehensive in TSA charts.

In 1993, UNWTO introduced statistical standards for tourism in a document entitled “Recommendations on Tourism Statistics 1993”. This was the first document to address international standards in tourism statistics.

The Tourism Satellite Accounts - Methodological Recommendation 2000 (TSA:RMF 2000) is a structured version consistent with the guiding frameworks of the 1993 SNA. TSA:RMF 2000 revised the definitions in the 1993 Tourism Statistics Recommendation. TSA:RMF 2000 also covers tourism forms, tourism consumption categories, product categories and tourism-related activities.

The main differences between TSA: RMF 2000 and the current updated documents focus on clarifying the concepts of tourism expenditure and tourism consumption, the demand for consumer goods by tourists and considering new forms of home ownership as well as specialized activities of organizing events and conferences.

When becoming a specialized agency of the United Nations in 2001, UNWTO proactively and actively integrated the system of concepts and definitions in TSA to be more consistent with SNA; at the same time, encouraged member countries to apply it uniformly to ensure international comparability of world tourism statistics.

In February 2008 in New York, the new international statistical standards system was approved by the United Nations Statistical Commission along with the document entitled “Recommendation on Tourism Statistics 2008” (TSA: RMF 2008) completed and introduced by UNWTO. TSA: RMF 2008 presents a system of concepts, definitions, classification methods and indicators that are consistent with each other and are placed in relation to SNA 2008, balance of payments and labor statistics, etc. The new content in TSA: RMF 2008 is related to updating the macroeconomic activities of member countries. Some new points of TSA: RMF 2008: (i) Clarifying the difference between tourism expenditure and tourism consumption; (ii) Improving the classification of production activities associated with separate product classification to serve the description and analysis of tourism activities; (iii) Clarifying the issue of employment in the tourism industry; (iv) Further explaining the meaning and use of summary data tables; …

Applying TSA: RMF 2008 helps member countries to implement unified standards on tourism statistics in relation to statistics of other economic sectors in the economy. From there, it is possible to assess the role of the tourism industry in relation to, and compare with, other economic sectors for the economic development of a country; compare tourism activities between countries; and at the same time support the assessment and analysis.


and predict the growth of tourism worldwide.

TSA: RMF 2008 was compiled with the great contributions of many organizations, countries and individuals with the aim of building a comprehensive and complete measurement system reflecting tourism activities. The history of the formation and development of TSA is closely related to the recommendations on tourism statistics and the development of SNA.

Based on TSA: RMF 2008, the European Statistical Office has compiled many more detailed guidance documents, more suitable to the practice of the region such as: Handbook on tourism satellite account practice; Handbook on domestic tourism (MEDSTART II); Guide to methods applied in basic tourism statistics and travel tourism, ... to apply uniformly to European member countries.

(2). Compile tourism satellite accounts in countries

Many studies in Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Mexico... have discussed the experience of establishing TSA such as: Introduction to the German TSA preparation method, experimental results and initial comments by Ahlert (2007); sharing the experience of establishing TSA of Australia according to Fleetwood (2004); TSA of the Netherlands, the approach and results of Heerschap & colleagues (2005); Experience and method of establishing TSA in Mexico by Rivera.G (1999) or the article discussing the formation, development and issues for building TSA by Frechtling, D. (1999)... The articles focus on discussing the unification of related concepts; TSA establishment process within the framework of unification with SNA; information sources; coordination of implementation; TSA compilation results, in which some articles mention the overall impact of tourism on the economy and recommendations. Some articles have presented the results of calculating tables in TSA, analyzing tourism performance and tourism export and import values, and the direct impact of tourism on GDP. However, these articles do not mention the data sources for specific indicators and how to calculate those indicators or apply any models to analyze, evaluate or forecast tourism activities.

1.1.1.2. Studies on assessing the impact of tourism on economic growth

Organizations and individuals around the world have researched and introduced the measurement of tourism activities according to TSA in relation to the Inter-Industry Balance Sheet (IO Sheet).

- considered the heart of SNA - to assess the direct, indirect and combined impacts due to the spillover effects of tourism on economic sectors.

Two research books on assessing the role of tourism in economic growth in the close connection between the theory of TSA and SNA include: “Handbook of compiling and analyzing IO Tables” published by United Nations in 1999 and “Introduction to


Introduction to the IO Table, Social Accounting Matrix and Tourism Accounts in Tourism Performance Evaluation” by Tadayuki Hara in 2008 These are two quite specific guidance documents on the use of the IO Table in tourism performance analysis through the construction of a new sector not included in the International Classification of Activities (ISIC). Based on the structure of the I-O Table, this new sector is created by integrating all activities serving tourism companies and tourists. Using the IO Table in combination with the supply and demand approach indicators of TSA to evaluate the direct, indirect and spillover effects of tourism on economic growth. These two documents also introduce the method of calculating the types of factors, thereby analyzing the impact of tourism demand on the sectors. However, this document only introduces the approach and proposes the calculation method, without mentioning in detail the related indicators in terms of concept, scope and calculation method. The book also does not analyze tourism activities in detail according to each of its components in order to evaluate more deeply and specifically the content of tourism activities.

Other studies abroad have also mentioned the contribution of tourism to the economy of countries or territories. Byan, J. et al. (2006) discussed the contribution to the economy from tourism in the UK in the article “The contribution of tourism to the UK economy - Tourism account”. University of Vermont (1999) introduced the study of the University of Vermont (USA) with the study named “IO Table - Impact of tourism on the Vermont economy”. Vermont is the tenth largest state in the US in terms of tourism income during that time. The studies used the indicators of TSA and IO Table to measure the direct and indirect impact of tourism on the economy of the UK or Vermont. The results of empirical verification and analysis of the contribution of tourism to the economy for the case of the UK or Vermont region were presented along with some recommendations. The studies of Frechtling, D. (2008) and Smith, S. (2000) mentioned the theory of measuring and analyzing the contribution of tourism to the regional and territorial economy based on the theory of TSA and SNA and without empirical verification. The above studies did not discuss in detail the source of information, how to apply the IO Table in competitive or non-competitive form, and did not mention the decomposition of tourism activities into international tourism and domestic tourism to observe, measure, analyze and evaluate their impact on the economy.

Thus, in the above studies, UNWTO has built a system of tables, charts, and accounts to reflect the direct impact of tourism activities on the performance of the entire economy. The measurement frameworks from UNWTO are relatively detailed, mainly based on the spending of domestic and international tourists. The measurement frameworks


This measurement is carried out in many countries around the world with different levels of completeness and detail. This is necessary information for analysis and assessment of the impact of tourism activities on economic development. In some studies, especially the document of Dr. Tadayuki Hara, the IO Table was used to analyze and assess the direct and indirect impacts of tourism activities but did not mention the division by domestic and international tourism to assess the impact of each type of tourist on the growth of the entire economy. Therefore, it is necessary to add more variables when applying the model to analyze the comprehensive impact of tourism activities by each type of tourist: Domestic tourism and international tourism on economic growth.

1.1.2. Domestic research projects

In the country, there are a number of following research works that have mentioned the reflection and measurement of tourism performance results with different scopes and levels.

First of all, the project "Implementing the application of tourism satellite accounts in Vietnam" implemented by the General Department of Tourism (2011) introduced and guided the establishment of TSA for Vietnam. The project includes the main contents: Researching the requirements and principles of establishing TSA based on theory and practice in some countries; Assessing the current status of information sources for establishing TSA in Vietnam; Developing the process of establishing TSA; Testing the establishment of TSA in Vietnam; Solutions for implementing the project in the period of 2010 - 2015 and Building a roadmap for applying TSA in Vietnam in the period of 2010 - 2015. The project is a document guiding the best practices for implementing TSA establishment in Vietnam to reflect and measure tourism performance according to the recommendations of UNWTO. However, it must be affirmed that the TSA method only stops at guiding the measurement of tourism performance through a number of basic indicators based on international methodologies. This document does not provide specific guidance on indicators for assessing the direct impact of tourism on economic growth.

Since 2013, the EU-ESRT project funded by the European Union has supported the General Department of Tourism to develop the Vietnam Tourism Annual Report 2013 and 2014, which determined the contribution of tourism to GDP through the IO Table 2007 and the IO Table 2012 of Vietnam's competitiveness. This project has also developed the TSA and calculated the overall contribution of tourism to the growth of Quang Ninh province in 2014 ( Tool to affirm the role of Vietnam's tourism industry in the economy, 2016).

The content of the above documents and studies focuses on systematizing and clarifying the concepts and characteristics of tourism business activities. The studies also propose and perfect the system of statistical indicators of tourism results, collection methods and summarization.


These indicators have not been fully and comprehensively calculated by the research on the impact of tourism activities on economic growth by type of international and domestic tourists.

In short, TSA is considered a theoretical handbook to unify concepts, tourism-related indicators, calculation methods and establish 10 tables in the tourism field for common application worldwide.

Some foreign studies have approached tourism activities from both the supply and demand sides, and have tried to calculate for countries or territories, but they have only stopped at the general level of all tourism activities without detailing its main components. At the same time, the studies have not clarified the direct, indirect and synthetic approaches. Therefore, to see more clearly the role of each type of tourism activity as well as its overall impact on economic development, it is necessary to analyze tourism activities in more detail with a more fully discussed and comprehensive approach.

Domestic studies have focused on studying measurement frameworks with tables and indicators, presenting methods of collection, calculation and synthesis to reflect the results of tourism activities in the economy. There have been studies on using the competitive I-O Table to quantify the overall contribution of tourism in general to the economy. There have been no domestic studies approaching the calculation and measurement of direct and indirect impacts of tourism activities on economic growth based on the non-competitive I-O Table and detailing the spending of international and domestic tourists.

Thus, it can be seen that both domestically and internationally, studies have not specifically identified the use of the non-competitive IO Table and have not clearly distinguished the role of international tourism and domestic tourism when assessing the impact of tourism activities on economic growth. Therefore, no research has been conducted to assess the overall impact of tourism based on the analysis of the two main components of tourism activities: international tourism and domestic tourism. Therefore, studies have not considered and assessed the overall impact of international tourism and domestic tourism separately on the economy; and have not clearly shown the scale to be able to compare and analyze more deeply the role of international tourism and domestic tourism in the picture of tourism activities in general of the entire economy.

To fill the above research gap, the thesis will first base on the theory of TSA to study the method of determining and measuring international tourism and domestic tourism.

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