Situation of Disaster Risk Management and Assessment in the World and in Vietnam:

In addition, potential natural disasters such as super typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis, although not yet occurred, are also receiving attention. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has determined that Binh Dinh province is likely to be directly affected or make landfall by super typhoons of level 15 and 16, with the risk of total sea level rise during the storm reaching 3.0 - 3.2 m. The Southern Institute of Water Resources Research has studied many different storm - sea level rise combinations and determined that the most unfavorable scenario for Binh Dinh is a strong storm of level 16 making landfall in the south of the province, accompanied by sea level rise of over 2.5 m.

2.2.2.3. Impacts of climate change in Binh Dinh province:

Like other provinces in the Central Coast region, Binh Dinh will also be affected and impacted by climate change. According to the action plan to respond to climate change in Binh Dinh province within the framework of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change in Vietnam - Binh Dinh Provincial Climate Change Coordination Office (CCCO), Binh Dinh has a labor structure in agriculture, development and orientation focused on agriculture, fisheries industry and services, the province has a diversity of natural and marine resources, the east borders the sea, economic growth mainly relies on many land resources, natural resources. Due to the above characteristics, climate change will have many impacts on the socio-economy of Binh Dinh province, directly affecting social life and agricultural production as well as people's lives.

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Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as storms, floods, droughts, heavy rains, heat waves... and can become disasters, causing great risks to economic and social development or erasing many years of development achievements.

2.2.3. Situation of disaster risk management and assessment in the world and in Vietnam:

To carry out disaster risk management, under the guidance and support of authorities at all levels, and the Steering Committees for Disaster Prevention and Control and Search and Rescue at all levels, disaster risk assessment is extremely important and is the foundation for implementing disaster risk management in the community.

Community-based disaster risk management is a process in which community members actively and proactively participate in identifying and analyzing disaster risks, planning

planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating activities aimed at community adaptation to the impacts of natural disasters, especially in the context of climate change (DMC, 2015).

2.2.3.1. Practices of disaster risk management and assessment in the world:

Community-based risk assessment and management has been applied by many organizations and individuals in poverty reduction research. In Europe, at the end of the 20th century, the participatory community development (PCD) method was used in Central Europe, where industry associations were facing difficulties without the necessary support. At the same time, poverty was increasing in many groups. In the early 2000s, 9 associations used a methodology called participatory community development to revitalize their industries. PCD is a way to solve people's problems at the local level. Later, they were also applied to assess vulnerability and capacity to respond to natural disasters and became VCA.

In Latin America, participatory programming was initially a grassroots approach to addressing issues not directly related to natural disasters. It has increasingly involved a broader range of communities to address gaps and reduce vulnerability. It promotes collaboration between stakeholders within and outside the community and fosters collaboration between central and local governments, faith-based organizations, and non-governmental organizations (IFRC, 2006).

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when natural disasters and climate change increasingly impacted production and people's lives in many places around the world, this VCA approach was used to study the risks that communities faced.

In 2003, in Rwanda, the Rwanda Red Cross used the VCA tool to assess the vulnerability and capacity to respond to geographical and socio-economic issues of communities in localities across the country (IFRC, 2003).

In 2007, in African countries, the IPCC conducted a study to assess the impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of African people in the context of climate change. This study pointed out the impacts and vulnerabilities caused by climate change in African countries in terms of water resources, energy, health, agriculture, ecosystems, coastal areas, tourism, sedimentation, industry and infrastructure, especially in Egypt.

In Asia, since the beginning of the 21st century, the VCA method has been used more and more popularly and has brought practical results.

In the Philippines, since the 2000s, Oxfam has guided and coordinated with the people and the government to assess VCA in many localities across the country with a community-based approach based on the connection between disaster mitigation and development. This approach has helped vulnerable communities in the Philippines have a safer and more stable life before, during and after natural disasters. However, its effectiveness is still limited.

In 2003, the Mekong Wetlands Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Use Program in collaboration with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center conducted a study on Vulnerability Assessment from Climate Risks in Attapeu Province, Lao PDR. This assessment identified climate risks affecting vulnerable communities in the region and provided timely recommendations.

In India, since 2011, hazard assessment, vulnerability and capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation have been increasingly used by the National Disaster Management Authority and Projects to assess many vulnerable communities such as: Bihar, Andaman, Nicobar, Islands, Kashmir, Kerala and Tamil, Nadu. From there, the most optimal response plans are developed.

In 2012, Bobenrieth and colleagues conducted a VCA in Koh Kong and Kampot provinces - Kingdom of Cambodia to raise community awareness and propose solutions to reduce vulnerability and enhance capacity for

Localities based on research results and local characteristics (VNRC, 2010).

HVCA assessment is an assessment content supplemented and developed from VCA that many research organizations in the world use to investigate and research a certain community. For VCA, the most important purpose is to assess the vulnerability and capacity to prevent and mitigate natural disaster risks. For HVCA, in addition to the two assessment contents as VCA, it also focuses on assessing natural hazards in the research area. Although not as comprehensive as HVCA, VCA also provides important premises to contribute to disaster mitigation in many places in the world, especially in developing countries in Africa and Asia.

2.2.3.2. Participatory (community-based) disaster risk assessment in Vietnam:

In Vietnam, from the 1990s to the early 2000s, with the pioneering role of the Vietnam Red Cross and civil society organizations, VCA has been applied in many surveys and studies to suit the context and conditions of the country. Previously, VCA studies were mainly implemented and assessed by the Vietnam Red Cross and provincial Red Cross Societies, focusing only on natural disasters and not on climate change. On the other hand, many assessments were not thoroughly implemented, and did not properly assess the most vulnerable groups, such as children and people with disabilities. Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the Vietnam Red Cross have researched and issued a more comprehensive VCA assessment guide, including an analysis of factors affecting climate change.

Although there have been changes in content and methods over time. However, to ensure increasingly objective, complete and accurate assessments, we need to not only assess the vulnerability and capacity of the people but also specifically assess the impact of natural hazards in the study area under the influence of climate change. In the assessment

In this price, the types of hazards and their impacts are discussed in depth along with a careful analysis of vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.

2.2.3.3. Disaster prevention and risk assessment with people's participation in Binh Dinh province:

Faced with the extremely complex and unpredictable situation of natural disasters and climate change in the province, the Provincial Party Committee and the People's Committee of Binh Dinh province have made great efforts in responding to the challenges caused by natural disasters and climate change. In 2007, the Provincial People's Committee issued an Action Plan to implement the National Strategy on Prevention, Response and Mitigation of Natural Disasters to 2020; a Plan to implement the National Target Program and Climate Change Response Scenario for the period 2010 - 2015 with a vision to 2020, and in 2013, the Provincial People's Committee issued a decision to implement Project 1002 of the Prime Minister on Raising People's Awareness in Community-Based Disaster Risk Management in the province.

The Provincial Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control and Search and Rescue was established and assigned specific tasks to each member. Departments, branches and localities have established Steering Committees for Disaster Prevention and Control and Search and Rescue, and deployed preparations for disaster prevention and control and search and rescue at their units and in their localities. The Provincial Military Command, the Provincial Border Guard Command and the Provincial Police are the main forces in the province's search and rescue work. The Provincial Military Command annually has a plan to coordinate with the main units of the Military Region and the units of the Ministry located in the area to organize forces and means, and assign areas to undertake search and rescue tasks according to the unified plan of the locality. Localities have plans to mobilize forces in the area. At the district level, mobilize the police force, army and Youth Union. At the commune level, mobilize the youth union members, militia and self-defense forces. The shock troops at the commune and ward levels have 30-40 people. In addition, there is a plan to mobilize human resources and means from businesses, government agencies and non-governmental organizations located in the area.

According to the Survey Report on Disaster Prevention Capacity - Flood Prevention and Drainage Project in Quy Nhon City, by the Provincial Red Cross Society

In the implementation of the project funded by the German Red Cross and the German Development Cooperation Organization (GIZ) (2013 - 2015), every year, provinces, districts, cities, wards and communes have a common plan for disaster prevention and control and search and rescue for each level. Many departments, branches and sectors also have their own plans for their units. However, the planning process is still heavily one-way from top to bottom, with the next year's plan inheriting the previous year's. Currently, there is still no unified model for all levels regarding the process, content and form of disaster prevention and control plans, especially at the ward and commune level. The majority of officers in the Disaster Prevention and Control Steering Committees at all levels still hold concurrent positions, so many members have not been well trained in professional knowledge in Disaster Management, especially at the ward and commune level. In addition, the unreliability of forecast information has also caused difficulties for planners. Proposed solutions to improve the effectiveness of planning work as well as the quality of the plan mainly focus on: regular leadership, direction and support from superiors; strengthening propaganda and mobilization work to mobilize people to participate in the planning process; improving the capacity and quality of forecasts; synchronous and effective coordination in the PCTT Command Committee; unified guidance on content and form, response plans for each type of natural disaster in the locality; bottom-up planning, regularly and promptly grasping weather developments and related data information to adjust plans promptly and effectively; improving planning skills, assigning planning departments according to their functions and tasks; sectors must develop separate plans; need to reserve budget for PCLB to be more proactive in PCTT and TKCN work. The plan is often deployed right at the annual summary meeting. Before a natural disaster (storm or flood) occurs, depending on the specific situation of that type of natural disaster, the response plan is often adjusted to suit the local context. However, in the response process, the PCTT Command Committees at all levels also encounter many difficulties. Typically, local resources are still limited (in terms of funding, in terms of human resources such as untrained rapid response teams, especially at the ward and commune levels, and in terms of material resources such as lack of response equipment), horizontal and vertical coordination mechanisms are still tight and awareness and response capacity of the community is still lacking.

still limited. The main solutions proposed to improve the effectiveness of the plan implementation are: Perfecting the specialized apparatus, providing professional training in response for specialized staff; upgrading forecasting and communication support tools, maximizing the mobilization of community resources; strengthening regular inspection and supervision of the plan implementation; gradually balancing the budget and supplementing necessary response equipment, establishing a professional TKCN response team; proactively funding and mobilizing funding sources from outside the locality. In the relocation work, to ensure the safety of people living in the risk area, many members proposed implementing strong sanctions against households that refuse to relocate. However, it is best to promote propaganda to raise people's awareness so that they can change their thinking and behavior; make people change from "relying on and expecting support from outside" to "proactively responding and protecting their own lives and their families' lives" .

Faced with the above limitations, a number of activities for disaster prevention, mitigation and management with funding from the central government, international organizations, the World Bank and non-governmental organizations have been implemented in the province. However, these activities mainly focus on engineering solutions such as improving dyke and dam systems. In addition, there are currently a number of community awareness raising activities such as the CBDRM project in Tuy Phuoc, Phu Cat, Hoai An districts and An Nhon town, funded by the Norwegian Red Cross (2010-2014); the Flood Prevention and Drainage Project in Quy Nhon City, funded by the German Red Cross and the German Development Cooperation Organization (GIZ), the Diphicho 8 Project funded by the Dutch Red Cross in Hoai Nhon District (2013); the Thi Nai Lagoon Mangrove Ecosystem Restoration and Management Project, Green Shield, implemented in Quy Nhon City; WB3 project funded by the World Bank in Tuy Phuoc district and An Nhon town... with a total funding of hundreds of billions of VND. Thereby, thousands of cadres from the provincial to the village level have been trained, fostered, and improved their capacity and ability in disaster prevention and control and disaster risk management. However, the results achieved compared to the requirements are still

modest because Binh Dinh province has up to 90 communes and wards that are key to natural disasters, especially storms and floods.

2.2.3.4. Overview of vulnerability in Binh Dinh province:

The whole province has 86,000 people/20,400 households in 110 communes and wards of 11 districts, towns and cities located in dangerous natural disaster areas (Coastal areas with

36,000 people/8,100 households of 28 communes and wards in Hoai Nhon, Phu My, Phu Cat, Tuy Phuoc districts and Quy Nhon city) need permanent housing or resettlement to safe places. Tay Son district has over 12 residential areas with over 3,200 households/

22,400 people in 10 low-lying areas, along rivers and streams, thousands of temporary, simple houses are very vulnerable to storms and floods. The Education and Training sector has over 21,000 staff and teachers with over 33,000 students in the province. Of which, over 65% of staff and teachers are female; over 54,000 preschool students, over 124,000 primary school students, over 94,000 secondary school students. These are vulnerable groups when natural disasters occur.

Nearly 40% of the province’s semi-permanent and simple houses are concentrated in rural and coastal areas. These are areas frequently affected by storms and floods, so housing is a subject that needs attention to increase resilience to natural disasters.

2.2.3.5. Assessment of the risks of natural disasters (floods and storms) that may occur in the near future:

According to the report of the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, climate change is currently leading to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and time of extreme weather and climate phenomena and can lead to unprecedented extreme weather and climate phenomena.

The number of storms operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in the mid-late 21st century is expected to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity, and the number of strong storms is almost certain to increase. The storm season ends later and the storm tracks tend to shift south, and wind speeds in storms may increase slightly. The frequency of heavy rain is expected to increase in the 21st century in many parts of Vietnam, and heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides in mountainous areas. Changes in the amount of

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