Ranking of Total Bank Assets as of June 30, 2020 Interest Rate Situation at Commercial Banks



Figure 4.1: Ranking of total bank assets as of June 30, 2020 Interest rate situation at commercial banks

In 2019, the interest rate competition heated up the banking market quite fiercely throughout the third quarter. At this time, to compete to attract long-term deposits, banks continuously pushed up long-term mobilization interest rates through regular deposit tools and issuing long-term deposit certificates.

Explaining the reason for the interest rate race, some economic experts said that small commercial banks have to compete to mobilize capital to increase capital to meet the strict requirements of the State Bank. Due to the policy of tightening credit


The real estate sector - one of the important driving forces of credit growth many years ago, so credit growth in 2019 was kept at a moderate level. On the other hand, some enterprises encountered difficulties in production and business, so they reduced their borrowing from banks or sought other mobilization channels. From another perspective, the reason why commercial banks had to increase interest rates to mobilize deposits from the population was because the State Bank tightened money supply, while lending demand was still increasing. The decrease in money supply forced commercial banks to increase mobilization.

The development of the interest rate competition has many potential risks affecting the stability and health of the Vietnamese banking system, creating negative developments and psychology, potentially leading to a race on mobilization interest rates, causing instability in the currency market. In addition, increasing interest rates means increasing costs for businesses, increasing the cost of products and services sold to customers, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit of businesses.

In response to the interest rate race in the banking market, the State Bank of Vietnam has made decisions to adjust and reduce the maximum deposit interest rate in Vietnamese Dong (VND) of organizations and individuals at credit institutions and foreign bank branches (hereinafter referred to as credit institutions), the maximum short-term lending interest rate in VND of credit institutions for various economic sectors and industries. The Governor of the State Bank requested credit institutions to seriously implement solutions to stabilize interest rates and stabilize the macroeconomy; requested credit institutions to effectively implement solutions on interest rates and credit to improve business efficiency and ensure safety in banking operations. The State Bank affirmed that it will closely monitor the implementation of solutions on interest rates and credit of credit institutions and take measures to strictly handle violations of the provisions of law and the direction of the State Bank.

As a result, by mid-November 2019, the interest rate competition had cooled down and quickly reversed when commercial banks suddenly announced a reduction in both deposit and lending interest rates (although the end of the year is always the time when bank interest rates are "anchored" at high levels and tend to increase compared to other times). The State Bank of Vietnam has issued two decisions effective from November 19, 2019 on reducing the maximum interest rate applied to non-term deposits and deposits with terms of less than 1 month from 1.0%/year to 0.8%/year; the maximum interest rate applied to deposits with terms of 1 month or more.


The maximum short-term lending interest rate for capital needs for rural agriculture, export, supporting industry, small and medium enterprises, and high-tech enterprises has also decreased from 6.5%/year to 6.0%/year...

Before the State Bank made the adjustment decision, some commercial banks took the lead in reducing lending interest rates, such as Vietcombank, Vietinbank and BIDV. Vietcombank is the first bank in the group of four state-owned commercial banks to reduce lending interest rates by 0.5%/year for all enterprises. Notably, although the decision to reduce lending interest rates took effect from November 18, 2019, all enterprises that signed loan contracts with Vietcombank from November 1, 2019 will also enjoy this attractive interest rate policy.

VietinBank has adjusted the maximum short-term VND lending interest rate down from 6.5%/year to 6.0%/year for capital needs serving agriculture, rural areas, exports, supporting industries, small and medium enterprises, and high-tech enterprises. BIDV has adjusted the capital mobilization interest rate down by 0.2%/year for all terms (lower than the ceiling interest rate regulated by the State Bank). The adjustment to reduce the capital mobilization interest rate is the basis for BIDV to continue to reduce the lending interest rate by 0.2% - 0.5%/year compared to the current interest rate and maintain the priority lending policy of a maximum of 5.5%/year (lower than the newly adjusted regulation of the State Bank of 0.5%/year) for priority sectors...

The fact that commercial banks have adjusted their lending interest rates down at the end of the year is welcomed by businesses as a surprise gift. Because the interest rate reduction helps reduce the cost burden for businesses, giving businesses more opportunities to expand production and business (at the end of the year, the needs of people and businesses both increase). Thus, it is clear that the State Bank's decision to adjust interest rates down has a positive impact on the market. The interest rate cut, in theory, helps lower the cost of capital, which will stimulate businesses and investors to participate in the market more, promoting better economic development.

However, the question is whether businesses can easily access this cheap capital flow, and whether the interest rate reduction will spread widely in the market to establish a new interest rate level or not? This concern is not unrealistic, because many commercial banks have reached the credit growth ceiling for the whole year of 2019 and have not yet


supplemented by the State Bank. Therefore, in reality, cheap capital is still available, but not all enterprises are eligible to access it. In addition, although interest rates have decreased significantly compared to the previous period, they are still high, especially for small and medium enterprises. Thus, the recent reduction in short-term interest rates is not enough. Many enterprises still expect long-term lending interest rates to decrease further to facilitate production and business.

Some difficulties in accessing banking for businesses

According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, as of December 31, 2018, the country had 714,755 operating enterprises, an increase of 9.2% compared to 2017. In the period of 2016 - 2018, the number of new enterprises grew strongly, with an average of nearly 123,000 enterprises entering the market each year with a registered capital of about 1.2 million billion VND, an increase of 49.3% in the number of enterprises and 155.8% in registered capital compared to the previous 3-year period.

According to the 2017 Economic Census Report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for about 98.1% of the total number of enterprises nationwide, contributing about 45% of GDP, 31% to the total state budget revenue and attracting more than 5 million jobs. SMEs are considered an important production force of the economy, creating material wealth and jobs for society. However, with the limited scale of enterprises, it is basically difficult for SMEs to access capital from the stock market, issue domestic and international bonds, borrow foreign capital, investment funds... mainly focusing on loans from commercial banks on the basis of enterprises accessing themselves or through the Credit Guarantee Fund for Small and Medium Enterprises and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Fund.

Studies show that the reasons why businesses have difficulty accessing bank capital include:

On the business side

The operating capacity of small and medium enterprises is mostly small in scale, with weak domestic and foreign competitiveness; outdated technology, lack of management experience; human resources lacking skills and experience; low risk tolerance, poor resilience to macroeconomic fluctuations. Enterprises have not yet linked with each other and with large enterprises to create a competitive value chain at the regional level.

- Most small and medium enterprises have private management and administration methods.

family, no vision, long-term business strategy. Limited management capacity


This is also the reason why small and medium enterprises have difficulty in finding and developing business plans and feasible investment opportunities, and lack of understanding of regulations when accessing loan sources.

- Regarding collateral, small and medium enterprises themselves have many potential risks due to their low asset value, limited cash flow, low credit history and credit rating with banks. Therefore, in addition to assessing business plans, banks tend to require collateral; while due to limited financial capacity, enterprises do not have enough collateral to mortgage to banks.

- The transparency of accounting data and financial accounting information is not up to standard, information is not transparent because small and medium enterprises do not attach importance to building this data system, financial reports are mostly not audited, and accuracy is limited.

On the banking system side

- In the process of lending to small and medium enterprises, due to the characteristics of small and medium enterprises having a short establishment time or business life cycle, there is a lack of stability in business operations and a lack of transparency in information provided to banks, making it difficult for banks to assess the effectiveness of the loan plan, as well as evaluate the customer's reputation to make a lending decision.

- Small and medium enterprises have difficulty in meeting related conditions.

to collateral according to general regulations of the banking system.

- In the context that small and medium enterprises still have limited information on accessing bank loans as well as the capacity to prepare loan applications, the current loan processes and procedures of commercial banks are still quite complicated for small and medium enterprises.

4.2 Sample and response rate

A total of 363 questionnaires were returned out of 400 distributed using convenience sampling method. 27 questionnaires were excluded from the data because they were incomplete and therefore not suitable for use in this study.

According to Sekaran (2003) and Crouch's (1984) recommendation, a sample size of between 300 and 500 is considered an appropriate size for most behavioral studies. Therefore, for the purpose of this study, this sample size is considered acceptable.


4.3 Descriptive statistics

The data in Table 4.1 show descriptive statistics of respondents who switched

bank switchers and respondents who did not switch banks.

Table 4.2 Statistics on subjects switching to use banking services


Subjects of conversion using banking services


Quantity

Proportion


Object

No conversion in 3

recent years

230

63.4%

Convertible within 3 years

recently

133

36.6%

Total

363

100.0

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Source: Author's synthesis

Table 4.3 Demographic characteristics statistics with bank switching rate


Customer characteristics

Number


Rate (%)

Bank changed

(People)

Number

Rate (%)

Sex

Male (1)

144

39.7

54

37.50

Female (0)

219

60.3

79

36.07

Year old

From 18-23(0)

142

39.1

53

37.32

23-60(1)

221

60.9

80

36.20


Job

Civil servants

36

9.9

7

19.44

Workers

36

9.9

15

41.67

Office staff

36

9.9

16

44.44

Student

38

10.5

16

42.11

Self-employed

108

29.8

38

35.19

Other

109

30.0

41

37.61

Income

Under 9 million (0)

125

65.6

12

9.60

Over 9 million (1)

238

34.4

121

50.84

Degree

No college degree (1)

111

30.6

10

9.01

Have a college degree (0)

252

69.4

123

48.81

Source: Author's synthesis


From the 363 usable questionnaires, it was found that 36.6% (133) of the respondents had switched banks in the past 3 years, while 63.4% (230) of the respondents had not switched banks. Of these, 39.7% were male and 60.3% were female. The dominant groups were in the age group of 23-60 years old, accounting for 60.9%. The majority of the respondents had a university degree, 69.4% (252). In terms of occupation, the dominant groups were respondents in other types of occupations, 30% (109), and self-employed, 29.8% (108).

The respondents were differentiated based on switching or non-switching behavior, with 230 respondents who did not switch banks having demographic characteristics of gender (90 males and 140 females) and education (101 without a university degree and 129 with a university degree).

However, the characteristics of age, occupation and income between those who switched and those who did not switch banks were different. The younger group tended to switch banks more than the older group. The highest proportion of respondents who switched banks were office workers, accounting for 44.44% of the total number of office workers, while the highest proportion of respondents who did not switch banks were civil servants (19.44%).

4.4 Research results

4.4.1 Cronbach's Alpha reliability test

Table 4.4 Cronbach's Alpha reliability test results table



STT


Observation variable

Scale mean if variable excluded

Scale variance if variable is excluded

Total variable correlation coefficient

Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if excluded

variable

PRICE

Cronbach's Alpha = .873; N = 4

1.

G1

14.85

21,191

,713

,843

2.

G2

15.20

19,691

,725

,839

3.

G3

14.87

20,343

,792

,813

4.

G4

15.36

20,060

,690

,854

REPUTATION


Cronbach's Alpha = .691; N = 5

5.

DT1

18.53

24,847

,494

,621

6.

DT2

18.49

24,510

,515

,612

7.

DT3

18.76

25,807

,376

,673

8.

DT4

19.47

26,140

,385

,667

9.

DT5

18.64

25,154

,469

,632


SERVICE QUALITY

Cronbach's Alpha = .715; N = 5

10.

CLDV1

16.04

24,299

,581

,622

11.

CLDV2

16.05

24,335

,579

,623

12.

CLDV3

17.01

25,014

,552

,635

13.

CLDV4

16.55

27,336

,384

,703

14.

CLDV5

16.92

29,330

,288

,737

In the table above, we see that the variable CLDV5 has a correlation coefficient with the total variable of 0.288, less than 0.3, so we proceed to remove this observed variable.

SERVICE QUALITY (after removing variable CLDV5)

Cronbach's Alpha = .737; N = 4

15.

CLDV1

12.32

17,272

,579

,648

16.

CLDV2

12.33

16,850

,615

,626

17.

CLDV3

13.28

17,773

,558

,661

18.

CLDV4

12.83

19,884

,375

,762


ADVERTISING COMPETITION

Cronbach's Alpha = .649; N = 4

19.

CTQC1

13.33

15,388

,550

,489

20.

CTQC2

12.91

16,384

,557

,493

21.

CTQC3

14.13

16,679

,470

,552

22.

CTQC4

13.14

21,489

,176

,738

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