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Model system to assess the suitability of Vietnam's population-economic development process - 21


4- Partial Correlation Analysis (5.2) Chapter 2 Zero Order Partials

D_LD GO LD VON


D_LD 1.0000 -.1774 -.0795 -.1499

P= . P= .000 P= .001 P= .000

GO -.1774 1.0000 .4773 .7543

P= .000 P= . P= .000 P= .000

LD -.0795 .4773 1.0000 .3908

P= .001 P= .000 P= . P= .000

VON -.1499 .7543 .3908 1.0000

P= .000 P= .000 P= .000 P= .


Controlling for.. VON

D_LD GO LD D_LD 1.0000 -.0991 -.0230

P= . P= .000 P= .353

GO -.0991 1.0000 .3019

P= .000 P= . P= .000

LD -.0230 .3019 1.0000

P= .353 P= .000 P= .

With LD: labor; GO: Production value; D_LD =LD/GO; VON: Capital


Appendix 4: Model estimation results of chapter 3

1- Results of estimating equation (3.3) and testing the hypothesis of constant production efficiency with scale from the CES function.


Dependent Variable: LOG(Y) Method: Least Squares Sample: 1989:1 2004:4

Included observations: 64

Variable

coefficient

Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(K)

0.342584

0.020020 17.11246

0.0000

LOG(L)

0.773990

0.158861 4.872114

0.0000

LOG(L/K)^2

0.167021

0.022240 7.509853

0.0000

C

0.565827

1.257234 0.450057

0.6543

R-squared

0.996698

Mean dependent var

10.88623

Adjusted R-squared

0.996533

SD dependent var

0.335859

SE of regression

0.019775

Akaike info criterion

-4.948324

Sum squared residue

0.023463

Schwarz criterion

-4.813394

Log likelihood

162.3464

F-statistic

6037.547

Durbin-Watson statistics

1.115166

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

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Model system to assess the suitability of Vietnams population-economic development process - 21

Wald Test:

Equation: EQ01

Null Hypothesis: C(1)+C(2)=1

F-statistic

0.689739

Probability

0.409546

Chi-square

0.689739

Probability

0.406253


2- Results of estimating equations (3.5)-(3.6)


Dependent Variable: LOG(Y/L) Method: Least Squares Sample: 1989:1 2004:4

Included observations: 64

Variable

coefficient

Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(K/L)

0.167572

0.017936 9.342629

0.0000

@TREND

0.007982

0.000488 16.35374

0.0000

C

1.507615

0.009001 167.4990

0.0000

R-squared

0.994247

Mean dependent var

1.824977

Adjusted R-squared

0.994059

SD dependent var

0.232490

SE of regression

0.017921

Akaike info criterion

-5.159992

Sum squared residue

0.019590

Schwarz criterion

-5.058795

Log likelihood

168.1198

F-statistic

5271.208

Durbin-Watson statistics

0.066089

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000


With the tested hypothesis in the above model, result (3.5) implies result 3.6 and vice versa.


Year

Precious

mK

wL

Year

Precious

mK

wL

1989

1

1,091

3,492

1997

1

0.612

5,332


2

1.104

3,518


2

0.607

5,393


3

1.114

3,545


3

0.601

5,456


4

1.122

3,574


4

0.594

5.521

1990

1

1.129

3.604

1998

1

0.577

5.606


2

1,134

3,635


2

0.574

5,667


3

1,137

3,668


3

0.574

5,722


4

1,139

3,703


4

0.576

5,773

1991

1

1,163

3,723

1999

1

0.595

5.79


2

1.151

3,766


2

0.598

5,841


3

1.129

3,817


3

0.598

5,897


4

1,099

3.875


4

0.595

5,959

1992

1

1.07

3,933

2000

1

0.585

6,037


2

1,025

4.006


2

0.58

6.105


3

0.975

4,085


3

0.576

6.174


4

0.923

4.17


4

0.571

6.244

1993

1

0.842

4,289

2001

1

0.565

6.316


2

0.804

4,371


2

0.561

6,386


3

0.774

4,447


3

0.558

6,455


4

0.751

4,518


4

0.555

6,524

1994

1

0.737

4,578

2002

1

0.555

6,587


2

0.72

4,643


2

0.553

6,657


3

0.706

4,707


3

0.549

6,729


4

0.694

4,769


4

0.546

6.803

1995

1

0.688

4,823

2003

1

0.542

6,879


2

0.677

4,886


2

0.537

6,957


3

0.665

4.95


3

0.533

7,036


4

0.654

5.016


4

0.528

7,116

1996

1

0.635

5,093

2004

1

0.523

7,198


2

0.626

5.158


2

0.518

7,281


3

0.618

5.221


3

0.513

7,366


4

0.611

5,283


4

0.508

7,452

3- Results of mK, wL calculation (1989-2004)


4- Estimated results (3.1') and (3.10) System: HE3_3

Estimation Method: Least Squares


Sample: 1989:4 2004:4

Included observations: 61

Total system (balanced) observations 122


coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C(2)

0.193255

0.014558

13.27441

0.0000

C(3)

0.100743

0.014727

6.840537

0.0000

C(4)

-0.059615

0.000768

-77.67144

0.0000

C(5)

0.007591

0.000610

12.44755

0.0000

C(7)

-0.052412

0.010952

-4.785793

0.0000

C(8)

-0.192101

0.001190

-161.3725

0.0000

C(9)

0.003790

0.000293

12.91434

0.0000

Determinant residual covariance 6.95E-09


Equation: LOG(GDP/DS) = C(2)*LOG(K/L)+C(3)*LOG(K/L)^2

+C(4)

*LOG(DS)+C(5)*@TREND

Observations: 61

R-squared 0.998832

Mean dependent var

-0.291358

Adjusted R-squared 0.998771

SD dependent var

0.252098

SE of regression 0.010883

Sum squared residue

0.006869

Durbin-Watson stat 1.062340




Equation: LOG(L/DS)

=C(7)*LOG(WL/WK)+C(8)*LOG(DS)+C(9)

*@TREND

Observations: 61

R-squared 0.891028

Mean dependent var

-2.134026

Adjusted R-squared 0.887271

SD dependent var

0.032414

SE of regression 0.010883

Sum squared residue

0.006869

Durbin-Watson stat 1.062340




5- Estimated mortality rate by age


Dependent variable.. CPD Method.. LGSTIC


R Square .97924 F = 5141.12908 Signif F = .0000


-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------


Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T


AGE03

.943736

.000762

.371738 1238.193 .0000

(Constant)

1.195746

.062026

19,278 .0000


6- Birth rate data 2003

(Unit: 0/00)


Adult age

female

Rate

born

Year old

women

Rate

born

15

0.780478

33

74.21904

16

2.928734

34

62.87567

17

9.252834

35

54.85893

18

26.57598

36

43.77275

19

50.91497

37

37.57201

20

78.10107

38

32.9757

21

99.51171

39

23.79137

22

117.1678

40

21.86785

23

129.1824

41

12.63192

24

138,926

42

10.11192

25

147.2821

43

8.608868

26

139.9568

44

5.533328

27

124.7255

45

4.053578

28

125.8354

46

1.937269

29

119.7015

47

2.023429

30

99.45064

48

2.078522

31

91.64341

49

1.025247

32

82.75862




7- Results of estimating the age-specific fertility rate Dependent variable.. Rb15_49 Method.. CUBIC Multiple R .97195

R Square .94469

F = 176.50670 Signif F = .0000


-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------


Variable

B

SE B

Beta

T

Sig T

age

.119989

.007699

24.300492

15,586

.0000

age **2

-.003680

.000252

-48.173123

-14.601

.0000

age **3

.0000347

.0000026

23.719561

13,294

.0000

(Constant)

-1.118278

.073820


-15.149

.0000

Source: Population change survey 2001-2004. General Statistics Office

8- Regression model of migration probability by age

Classification Table(a)



observe

estimate

Has transfer from

1/2/2003

Percentage

Correct

Yes

No


Co transfer

0

23010

.0

to Khong

0

1616846

100.0

Overall Percentage



98.6


Variables in the Equation



B

SE

Wald

df

Sig.

Exp(B)

RAGE

.013

.000

1202.7

1

.000

1,013

P3

-.354

.014

685.62

1

.000

.702

Constant

4,458

.024

34980.

1

.000

86,321

a Variable(s) entered on step 1: RAGE, P3.


8- Test the pure birth rate by province and chart.



.06


.05


.04


.03


.02


.01

v807 v809 v811 v813 v815 v816 v817 v819 v821

Value

0.00

15.00


19.00


23.00


27.00


31.00


35.00


39.00


43.00


47.00

v823

17.00 21.00

25.00

29.00

33.00

37.00

41.00

45.00

49.00


Age


Test Statisticsa


N

35

Chi-Square

20,388

df

63

Asymp. Sig.

1,000

a. Friedman Test


9- Results of variance analysis by region and locality:

+ By economic region 8


ANOVA

P12-Highest level of education


Sum of Squares


df

Mean Square


F


Sig.


Between Groups

64682.5

7

9240.36

6781.71

.000


Within Groups

631904

463769

1,363



Total

696587

463776





+ According to 64 provinces and cities:


ANOVA

P12-Highest level of education


Sum of Squares


df

Mean Square


F


Sig.


Between Groups

90184.6

63

1431.50

1094.66

.000


Within Groups

606402

463713

1,308



Total

696587

463776





10- Results of the fertility model estimation Equation 1

Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

a. Dependent Variable: LSINH

Coefficient



Model


B

Std. Error


Beta


t


Sig.


1 (Constant)

.321

.691


.465

.644


LHVAN

-.245

.060

-.189

-4.060

.000


LTN

6.5E-02

.036

.116

1,802

.077


LRNU1

.835

.046

.855

18,014

.000


LNU

.913

.096

.608

9,546

.000


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