in Hanoi from 2003 to 2008 provided by the Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Housing of Hanoi according to Table 2.1. The quantitative analysis method used in the study is only used for the purpose of assessing the current status and development trends of the market. Therefore, in this analysis, the annual housing supply of Hanoi City is considered based on the number of newly built houses annually supplied to the market.
Table 2.1. Number of m2 of housing produced in a number of years
Period
Year | Number of square meters of house in new construction | Rate of change | |
1 | 2003 | 1,284,022 | ---------- |
2 | 2004 | 1,418,000 | 0.09 |
3 | 2005 | 1,509,500 | 0.06 |
4 | 2006 | 1,580,000 | 0.05 |
5 | 2007 | 1,674,000 | 0.06 |
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Source: Hanoi Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Housing
Using the simple linear projection method (Appendix 7), the predicted results of the number of square meters of newly built housing to be supplied to the market in 2008 are as follows:
Deviation b
1,674,000 1,284,022 77,995
(6 1)
(2.1)
When a=1,284,022 (m 2 ) (2.2)
=1,284,022+(77,995)x(6) = 1,751,992 (m 2 ) (2.3)
In which: a is the number of m2 of newly built houses in Hanoi in 2003.
is the number of m2 of housing expected to be built to supply Hanoi City.
In 2008
According to statistics from the Department of Natural Resources, Environment and Housing of Hanoi in 2006, the area of newly built housing supplied to the market is estimated at about 70% of the total area of newly built housing [42, p3]. Based on this index,
The author estimates the number of m2 of housing supplied to the market in 2008 as predicted at about 0.7 x 1,751,992 (m2 ) = 1,226,394 m2
2.1.2. Housing demand
Economic structure changes affect labor demandMechanical migration, Hanoi's population increases rapidlyDemand for housing and land increases.
Secondary data used for the study include survey results and statistics from the Hanoi Statistical Office, the Hanoi Department of Natural Resources and Environment and Housing, the Hanoi Land and Housing Registration Office and a number of other units with data related to the operation of the urban housing market. According to the research method, the demand for housing in Hanoi is based on two groups of households. The group of households newly created in Hanoi in 2008 due to migration from other places is called Group 1. The group of households currently in the city with housing needs is called Group 2.
Consider the housing demand of group 1. The purpose of the calculation is to evaluate the market in terms of trends and attitudes of urban housing consumption in Hanoi, so the analysis process will be conducted in 3 steps.
Step 1. Forecast the number of people moving to Hanoi City in 2008. Select input data as statistical results of the survey of people moving from other places to Hanoi City from 2002 to 2008 according to table 2.2.
Table 2.2. Hanoi population statistics over the years
Time
you
Year | People migrate to | Deviation | |
1 | 2002 | 65,213 | -------- |
2 | 2003 | 77,415 | 0.158 |
3 | 2004 | 91,274 | 0.152 |
4 | 2005 | 117,301 | 0.222 |
5 6 | 2006 2007 | 131,153 153,264 | 0.106 0.144 |
Source: Hanoi Statistical Office
Select the weighted average method (Appendix 7) to calculate. P 2008 =P 2007 (1+r) (2.4)
In there:
1 4
r ( P t P t 1 ) w
(2.5)
t 2
w is the influencing factor
is the sum of the influencing factors
P 2008 is the projected population moving to Hanoi for 2008.
r=[1/(1+2+3+4+5)][(0.158)(1)+(0.152)(2)+(0.222)(3)+(0.106)(4)+0.144(5) ] = 0.151
Then P 2008 can be calculated as follows:
P 2008 = 131,153x(1+0.151) 150,997 (people) (2.6)
Thus, with the above statistics, using the weighted average method, the number of people moving to Hanoi City in 2008 is forecasted to be about 150,997 people.
Step 2: Forecast the number of households arising in 2008 due to migration to Hanoi.
In the case study in Hanoi, the majority of new households were due to immigration, so in the calculation, the author only forecasted new households due to immigration to Hanoi in 2008.
Suppose the number of people in a household in Hanoi is 4 people/household. This ratio is chosen based on the current birth standard in Hanoi, which is one to two children per family. The average number of people in a household is 4 people/household [14,tr5].
Assuming the above together with the migration data in the first calculation step, the Author calculates that the number of households moving to Hanoi forecast for 2008 will be:
H 150,996 37,749 (households) (2.7)
4
In which: H is the number of households expected to move to Hanoi in 2008
Step three: Quantify the number of households that can afford housing.
This is a difficult calculation step because it is difficult to determine the proportion of households that have the need to buy a house. Normally, the third step must be conducted by sociological survey to find out the proportion of attitudes of households that have the need to buy a house. According to the sociological survey data in 2006 of the Hanoi Statistical Office
The proportion of households moving to Hanoi that can afford to buy a house is estimated at 43% [14, p. 32]. Therefore, the number of households moving to Hanoi that can afford to buy a house is predicted for 2008 as follows:
H 2008 = 0.43 x 37,749 (households) = 16,232 (households) (2.8)
In which: H 2008 is the predicted number of households moving to Hanoi with housing needs.
Consider the housing demand of group 2. To have a basis for studying the housing demand of households currently living in the City in 2008. The author uses secondary data from the population census results of the Hanoi Statistical Office, data on the number of transactions of the Hanoi Land and Housing Registration Office, data on Certificates of house ownership and land use rights of the Hanoi Department of Natural Resources and Environment and Housing. The types of data are as follows:
- The number of households in Hanoi City in 2008 was 729,688 households.[26,
p4].
- Total number of Certificates of house ownership and land use rights issued by
Hanoi City People's Committee granted 380,000 [43,tr5].
- Data on the number of real estate transactions from 2004 to 2007 out of the total number of Certificates of house ownership and land use rights provided by the Hanoi Real Estate Registration Office are shown in Table 2.3.
The calculation method is shown below.
Table 2.3. Statistics on the number of registered housing transactions over the years
Time
you
Year | Quantity transaction | Deviation | |
1 | 2004 | 7.126 | ------- |
2 | 2005 | 5,000 | 0.43 |
3 4 | 2006 2007 | 5,180 6,750 | 0.03 0.3 |
Source: Hanoi Land and Housing Registration Office Using moving average method (Appendix 7)
r 1 (0.43 0.03 0.3) 0.25
3
Afterward :
(2.9)
P 2008 = 6,750(1+0.25)=8,437 (2.10)
In which, P 2008 is the number of sales transactions to be registered at the Land and Housing Registration Office forecasted in 2008.
According to the assessment of the Hanoi Land and Housing Registration Office, the actual number of transactions at the Office is only half of the actual number of transactions on the market. Therefore, in this calculation, the Author takes the underground transaction index as 0.5. Then, the actual number of housing transactions on the market will be calculated as follows:
P' 2008 = 8.437x2= 16.874 (2.11)
In which: P' 2008 is the number of actual housing transactions that can occur predicted for 2008.
Therefore, the proportion of households that can afford to buy housing is:
16.874
380,000
4.4
( %) (2.12)
The forecast number of households that can buy housing in 2008 will be:
P demand2008 = 729,688 (households) x 4.4(%) = 32,106 (households). (2.13)
After calculating by quantitative method using secondary data, the Author predicted the number of households in need of housing in 2008 in Hanoi was estimated at 32,106 households.
Thus, the total number of households with housing needs predicted for 2008, including the number of households moving in and the number of households buying housing, will be: P Tcầu2008 :
32,106 (households) +16,232 (households) = 48,338 (households)
With this table of forecast demand data along with the forecast supply for 2008, the Author calculates and analyzes the trend of the Hanoi housing market for 2008 and the following years in the section analyzing the characteristics of the Hanoi housing and land market below.
2.1.3. Characteristics of the housing and land market in Hanoi
The purpose of calculating supply and demand in the Hanoi housing market in the section
2.2.1 and 2.2.2. to provide comments, evaluate the current situation and development trends of the housing and land market in Hanoi in 2008 and the following years. To have a basis for analyzing the housing and land market in Hanoi, the study will put forward some assumptions to analyze the trends of the housing and land market in Hanoi below.
First assumption, the author assumes that the average area index in Hanoi is 12m2 / person [8,tr57] and 14m2 / person [8,tr57]. This index is based on documents provided by the Ministry of Construction as a basis for analyzing the real estate market of the whole country. According to the assumption in section 2.2.2, each household has an average of 4 people/household. Comparing the forecast of housing supply in 2007 with the forecast of the total number of households in need of housing in 2007 in Hanoi, we will have table 2.4.
Table 2.4. Forecast of supply-demand ratio in Hanoi housing market in 2008
Assume number 2 /apartment
Estimated housing supply 2008 (units are apartments) | 2008 projected housing supply conversion (units) considered an apartment) | Estimated housing demand in 2008 (units are apartments) | Supply/demand ratio (%) | Note | |
48 | 1,226,394 | 25,549 | 48,338 | 52.8 | Take the average area index per person as 12m2 , 1 household family of 4 people [8,p57] |
56 | 1,226,394 | 21,899 | 48,338 | 45.3 | Take the average area index per person as 14m2 , a household of 4 people [8,p57] |
Second assumption, if we calculate supply = demand in 2008. At that time, at the supply-demand equilibrium point, the average housing m2 per capita will be calculated as follows :
D= 1,226,394/48338 = 25.37 m 2 (2.14)
T= 25.37m 2 /4=6.3m 2 (2.15)
In which: - D is the number of m2 of housing calculated for 1 household predicted in 2008 when supply = demand.
when together - bridge.
- T is the average m2 per capita predicted in 2008
The above analysis of supply and demand only considers the number of newly produced houses supplied to the market as predicted, without taking into account other factors affecting the market such as the issue of buying and selling houses between urban home owners, the issue of people using the solution of renting houses instead of buying houses to live in, the issue of sudden policies of the City government to promote a strong increase in the number of urban houses produced and supplied to the market, etc.
In general, according to the analysis results, no matter what influencing factors are considered, supply can only meet about half of the demand. Using the calculation results in this study, the author can draw a conclusion that the situation in the housing market in particular and housing and residential land in general by 2015 in Hanoi city tends to have insufficient supply to meet the demand for housing and residential land in the market .
Through the results of supply and demand calculations, we can draw out some outstanding characteristics of the housing and urban land market in Hanoi in the presentation below.
2.1.3.1. Demand exceeds supply
Due to the characteristics of the urban housing market in the short term, supply does not change much, so it is predicted that in the next few years, in Hanoi City, housing supply will not meet housing demand. This situation occurs due to the following main reasons:
Firstly, Hanoi City has had a rapid population growth rate in recent years. The urban population growth is mainly due to migration from other provinces. Since
2001-2005, the average immigration growth rate was 15.16%. In 2005, the entire City had 3,134,218 people with a total of 706,119 households. On average, the City had about 15,000 - 20,000 immigrants each year. In addition, the City regularly had nearly 160,000 students from other provinces and cities studying at universities, colleges, vocational schools and professional high schools; on
20,000 workers are people from other provinces and cities working in industrial parks, export processing zones and enterprises; nearly 8,000 foreigners reside, study and work. Besides, every day there are about 5,000-11,000 people coming and going, traveling, wandering, working and earning a living [14, p15]. This is the important reason causing pressure to increase demand for urban housing in Hanoi.
Second, urban population density is unevenly distributed. Urban population density is concentrated in the four old inner-city districts of Hoan Kiem, Hai Ba Trung, Ba Dinh, and Dong Da, which are always high at any time. In the newly formed districts of Thanh Xuan, Cau Giay, and Tay Ho, population density becomes more and more crowded. Statistics in 2006 showed that the official population of Hanoi was 3,283,600 people. The total natural land area in Hanoi is 92,097 hectares. On average, 0.36 hectares/person. The inner-city population is 2,079,300 people, and the suburbs are 1,252,600 people.
The average urban land area is 22.3m2 / person and the average rural land area is 65.5m2 / person.
[15, p125]. The difference in land area between rural and urban areas in the capital Hanoi is nearly 3 times larger.
Table 2.5. Population density distribution over the years (people/km 2 )
1990 | 1995 | 1997 | 2006 | |
Ba Dinh | 21,813 | 24,937 | 21,026 | 25,870 |
Hoan Kiem | 36,890 | 40,089 | 41,432 | 34,064 |
Hai Ba Trung | 20,332 | 23,887 | 25,432 | 31,566 |
Dong Da | 28,106 | 33,861 | 27,544 | 38,213 |
West Lake | 3,520 | 4,708 | ||
Cau Giay | 7.154 | 15,415 | ||
Youth | 14,699 | 22,667 |