Focus on Improving National Forecasting Capacity to Serve Management

Customs… is still weak and takes a lot of time and effort, causing great obstacles to export. In particular, if we analyze each step mentioned above carefully, each step has problems, for example:

- Regarding transportation and unloading: due to Vietnam's underdeveloped technical infrastructure, transportation and unloading are very difficult, taking a lot of time, money, storage and waiting...

- Regarding inspection, certification of origin (if requested by customers), customs procedures, taxes and other procedures: although there has been attention to reform, in general, the time to conduct and complete a set of customs clearance documents still takes up a lot of businesses' time.

In addition, a problem that also causes frustration for many import-export enterprises, enterprises have made many recommendations through direct meetings between competent authorities and enterprises, is the negative issue, making it difficult for enterprises to carry out necessary procedures, with the purpose of "extorting" enterprises.

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All of the above costs are included in the product cost by businesses in general and import-export businesses in particular, making the product cost increase and making it difficult to compete. The Government has recognized this issue and has recently made many reforms such as increasing the working day on Saturday for agencies such as Customs, Tax, etc. to create the best conditions for businesses. However, the Government also needs to regularly inspect, check, and supervise to promptly detect violations and strictly handle violations to maintain discipline and law and create trust in businesses.

3.3.2.7. Focus on improving national forecasting capacity to serve management work

In the context of integration into the world economy, forecasting is extremely important for economic development in general and export in particular.

Vietnam's agricultural products in particular, the Government's management policy in promoting or restricting the export of agricultural products (rice, coffee, rubber, etc.) at each time; the fluctuation in the prices of exported agricultural products, etc., depend largely on forecasting.

Through the assessment of the current situation of Vietnam's agricultural product exports mentioned in Chapter 2, the author realizes that focusing on improving the capacity of forecasting is an urgent task at present, requiring the Government to pay more attention. Forecasting, if done well and effectively, will bring great (invisible) effects to the economy in general and agricultural product exports in particular. For example, when preparing to issue a policy related to agricultural product export management, it is necessary to refer to the results of forecasting on supply-demand, how will agricultural product prices develop in the coming time? Surplus or shortage, price increase or decrease... from there, issue new, accurate decisions, ensuring benefits for farmers and agricultural product exporting enterprises.

In the immediate future, the Government needs to focus on strengthening and promoting the capacity of the Institutes and Centers for research, analysis and forecasting currently under the management of Ministries and branches such as the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, etc. to serve the Government's management. In the future, it is possible to create a mechanism for these Institutes and Research Centers to sell products from research and forecasting to import-export businesses if these businesses have a need; thereby, on the one hand, improving the qualifications and professional expertise of researchers, on the other hand, creating financial incentives to stimulate scientific research and being able to provide full and accurate information to agricultural export businesses in planning their production and business strategies.

3.3.2.8. Focus on sustainable development of traditional agricultural export markets, promote the development of new and potential markets; focus on restoring local export markets.

In the current conditions, the market price of agricultural products is always fluctuating and difficult to predict. Countries importing agricultural products often change their laws and trade policies to cope with market fluctuations. New regulations of countries on tariffs and non-tariff measures are increasingly sophisticated and complex, which is a very challenging issue for many agricultural export enterprises in our country. In order to proactively grasp and promptly cope with changes in prices and policies of countries, especially traditional importing countries of Vietnam, it is very necessary for the State to support and provide full and timely information on the agricultural export market to help enterprises.

The State needs to create a legal framework of international and national nature through continuing to negotiate, sign, amend and supplement bilateral trade agreements, especially with traditional and multilateral trading countries, and international commitments to facilitate the opening of foreign markets for agricultural products. At the same time, continue to improve mechanisms and policies to support and manage trade promotion in general and key national trade promotion programs in particular.

Continue to innovate both the organizational form and the system of agencies participating in trade promotion activities in the direction of focusing on the organization and provision of market information, enhancing promotion activities through supporting the organization of delegations. It is necessary to strengthen closer and more harmonious coordination between 3 levels: Government, trade promotion organizations and enterprises in trade promotion work, taking cooperation and

Competition is the foundation for forming and developing networks, gradually eliminating the current situation where businesses rely on funding and trade promotion programs from the State. Trade promotion organizations need to increase the provision of trade promotion support services to businesses such as providing information on markets, competitors, legal advice, helping to resolve problems in trade relations as a bridge between businesses and management agencies of ministries, sectors and consumers, helping businesses take advantage of opportunities and limit risks in the market. Trade offices and trade counselors at Vietnamese embassies in foreign countries need to promote their active role in providing information, support and advice to domestic businesses on learning about and accessing foreign markets. Enterprises need to regularly provide management agencies with updated information about themselves and their products, and be more proactive in market research, demand detection and product strategy development.

It is necessary to change the approach to the agricultural export market with a new way of thinking, not depending too much on agricultural importers of other countries, accordingly, Vietnamese agricultural export enterprises need to proactively step by step build a distribution system for agricultural products in the markets in order of priority for traditional markets, new markets, and potential markets. However, this is a huge challenge for Vietnamese agricultural export enterprises. With the current limited financial potential of agricultural export enterprises, building a distribution system for agricultural products in other countries is extremely difficult, not all Vietnamese agricultural export enterprises can do it, but must rely on the determination of the market.

The State's direction through mechanisms and policies encourages agricultural export businesses to join together to create financial strength, from which they can build distribution systems in other countries. In addition, the State also needs to introduce mechanisms and policies that can support agricultural export businesses through forms such as: supporting foreign market surveys, supporting office rent, product showrooms, etc. from the State budget collected from corporate income tax. However, to effectively implement this mechanism and policy, avoiding taking advantage of the State's mechanisms and policies for personal gain, the State needs to develop a number of very specific criteria, and must regularly check and monitor the implementation to promptly detect and handle any negative events that may occur.

Exporting agricultural products on the spot is very effective and thoroughly marketing the product's origin documents, especially when the need to protect the health of the community against the risks of environmental pollution in big cities is increasing. In recent times, exporting agricultural products on the spot in the form of agricultural tourism has appeared in some localities such as: Sapa, Khanh Hoa, My Tho, Ben Tre, Can Tho, An Giang... but has only been formed in the form of agricultural tourism activities but very sporadic, fragmented, spontaneous, and has not been invested in and developed properly. Therefore, the efficiency has not been high so far. It is necessary to research, restore and develop this model through building macro policies, issuing specific laws, and stimulating the development of farm economy on the basis of linking agricultural products of each household. Initially, it is possible to research and build a few pilot models for this type of agricultural ecology in some areas that concentrate on producing many main agricultural products such as: the Central Highlands provinces, the Mekong Delta, the Red River Delta...

3.3.3. Group of solutions for enterprises and agricultural production and export units

3.3.3.1. International linkage in agricultural production and export

Compared to some countries in the Southeast Asian region, Vietnam has quite similar natural conditions and agricultural production structures, but these countries have advantages over Vietnam in terms of science and technology level and experience in international trade activities. In that context, to ensure export efficiency and improve the competitiveness of agricultural products, it is necessary to attach importance to expanding international linkages in both production and export.

Previously, in the early 90s, American Rice Company (ARI) entered Can Tho City in a joint venture with the Food Corporation to invest in modern rice processing equipment and at the same time they zoned rice materials to purchase high-priced rice directly from farmers, without intermediaries. Under the American ARI brand, at that time Can Tho's rice was exported at a price of around 300 USD/ton, while the same rice but with a Vietnamese brand was only sold for 180 USD/ton. Unfortunately, after that, we competed unfairly with them, this Company left Vietnam, we lost the opportunity to export high-priced rice that was beneficial to farmers [48].

Therefore, this affiliate relationship may include the following main contents:

- Coordinate in the field of scientific and technological research to create highly competitive plant and animal varieties.

- Coordinate the development of an export animal and plant quarantine service system according to international standards.

- Attracting foreign direct investment in agricultural and rural development.

- Coordinate trade policies of countries in the region to promote agricultural exports [35].

3.3.3.2. Building economic links between enterprises and agricultural cooperatives

To have a stable, long-term, quality source of agricultural products that meet international technical specifications. Enterprises need to build and create raw material areas for agricultural production through economic linkages between enterprises and agricultural cooperatives. Through agricultural cooperatives, enterprises can purchase agricultural products in a stable manner, avoiding the situation of competing to buy and sell when agricultural products are priced well; and also through agricultural cooperatives, new varieties and new scientific and technological advances are transferred to producers in the most effective way.

However, to do this, policy support from the State is needed, first of all:

It is necessary to amend agricultural policies and the Law on Cooperatives to suit the requirements of world economic integration, in which it is necessary to clearly demonstrate the advantages and benefits of members when participating in cooperatives. From there, farmers can voluntarily join together to form multi-purpose cooperatives, linked to businesses that consume products, large farms can be ready to participate in export.

3.3.3.3. Consumption of agricultural products for farmers through utilizing distribution channels of foreign-invested enterprises - FDI

Vietnam's agricultural exports in recent times have mainly been raw products, labor-intensive products, and low-profit value. Importing countries still cite WTO trade terms or regional trade agreements to discriminate against Vietnamese agricultural products. Therefore, becoming a member of the World Trade Organization - WTO is of great significance to Vietnam. In recent times, thanks to the application of scientific and technological advances in cultivation,

Therefore, the output of agricultural products in Vietnam has generally increased, and the consumption of all agricultural products at reasonable prices (ensuring profits) for farmers is currently a very difficult problem. This task has long been mainly undertaken by domestic enterprises, but due to the limited financial capacity and human resources of processing enterprises, they can only partially meet the consumption of agricultural products for farmers. Moreover, due to limited financial capacity, the use of advanced machinery, equipment and technology to serve the processing of high-quality agricultural products for export is an extremely difficult and difficult problem to implement. To overcome the above limitations, domestic enterprises only have the way to form joint ventures and associations with foreign partners, multinational corporations or the State has policies to encourage and attract foreign enterprises to invest in this field, thereby gradually improving the quality and value of Vietnam's agricultural products for export.

3.3.3.4. Building and registering geographical indications associated with agricultural product brands and business brands

In recent times, although Vietnam's agricultural exports have been present in many countries around the world, most of them do not have geographical indications or agricultural brands, so few people know about them or they appear in supermarkets in other countries but with different brands. Agricultural exports account for a large proportion of total export turnover, but currently, Vietnamese agricultural products when exported do not carry a specific label. And it is no longer strange that foreign countries intentionally follow geographical indications, agricultural brands or borrow the reputation of Vietnamese specialties. That is the case of Thailand, which is actively launching a campaign on many fronts to prove to the world that Hoa Loc-Cai Be mango is a Thai specialty, Taiwan is doing the same with Thanh Long-Binh Thuan fruit,

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