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Competitiveness and stability of Vietnamese commercial banks in the context of participating in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership - 1


MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING


STATE BANK OF VIETNAM

HO CHI MINH CITY BANKING UNIVERSITY

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Competitiveness and stability of Vietnamese commercial banks in the context of participating in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership - 1


PHAM THUY TU


COMPETITIVENESS AND STABILITY OF VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE CONTEXT OF PARTICIPATION IN THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT


DOCTORAL THESIS IN BANKING AND FINANCE


HO CHI MINH CITY, DECEMBER 2020

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING


STATE BANK OF VIETNAM

HO CHI MINH CITY BANKING UNIVERSITY



PHAM THUY TU


COMPETITIVENESS AND STABILITY OF VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE CONTEXT OF PARTICIPATION IN THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT


DOCTORAL THESIS DEFENDED AT SCHOOL LEVEL


Major: Finance - Banking

CODE: 9 34 02 01

Scientific supervisor: Associate Professor, Dr. DOAN THANH HA

Dr. DAO LE KIEU OANH


HO CHI MINH CITY - DECEMBER 2020


My name is Pham Thuy Tu, a PhD student of Course 19, academic year 2014 - 2017, Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City. I certify that this thesis has never been submitted for a degree at any training institution. This thesis is the author's own research work under the guidance of a scientific supervisor. The research results in this thesis are honest, in which there are no previously published contents or contents done by others except for the fully cited quotations in the thesis.


Ho Chi Minh City, December 6, 2020 The person who pledged


Pham Thuy Tu


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


First of all, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my scientific supervisors, Associate Professor, Dr. Doan Thanh Ha and Dr. Dao Le Kieu Oanh. They have guided me very enthusiastically and constantly encouraged me to complete my thesis. In addition, they have always given me extremely useful and practical comments on the research contents of my thesis.

I would like to sincerely thank the teachers of Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City for teaching and providing me with the necessary knowledge during my study and research at the University. I would also like to thank the teachers of the Postgraduate Department and related departments for their enthusiastic support in completing the procedures during my research at the University.

Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to the University of Finance and Marketing for its financial support as well as to my colleagues who have created the best conditions for me to complete my work and study as desired. I would like to sincerely thank my family for their sharing and encouragement, which is a great source of motivation for me to strive to complete my thesis.


Ho Chi Minh City, December 6, 2020 Thesis author

PhD. PHAM THUY TU


THESIS SUMMARY


In the context of Vietnam signing the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), it will have a great impact on the Vietnamese economy in general and Vietnamese commercial banks in particular. The CPTPP is considered to be an agreement with a very high financial liberalization framework, the commitments are deep and wide in scope, so Vietnamese commercial banks (VNCBs) that want to develop must improve their competitiveness, while strengthening measures to increase stability in the new situation. The thesis has set out the research objective of determining the current operational status of Vietnamese commercial banks, comparing them with other member countries in the CPTPP bloc, measuring competitiveness, stability, trends and impact levels of factors, thereby identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese commercial banks when participating in CPTPP. Based on the research results, the thesis proposes some appropriate policy implications to increase competitiveness and enhance banking stability in the context of CPTPP integration.

By using annual data in the period 2010 - 2018 together with qualitative research methods such as description, synthesis analysis, comparison and quantitative methods such as Lerner method, Zscore index method, the thesis has experimented with the above method for 31 Vietnamese commercial banks. The results show that the competitiveness and stability of Vietnamese commercial banks have tended to increase in recent years. Factors such as equity capital, bank size, credit scale, total asset growth rate, diversification index, increase in total assets of foreign financial institutions in the domestic market, inflation rate, GDP growth rate have a positive impact on the level of stability and factors such as credit risk provision ratio, capital mobilization scale have a negative impact on bank stability. Factors such as previous year's competitiveness, equity size, bank size, credit size, total asset growth rate, diversification ability, increased presence of foreign financial institutions in the domestic market, inflation rate have a positive impact on competitiveness and factors such as credit risk provision ratio, capital mobilization size, GDP growth rate have a negative impact on competitiveness and banking stability. At the same time, the thesis also points out that


Competitiveness has a positive impact on banking stability, supporting the “competitiveness – vulnerability” view.

From there, the thesis has suggested suitable policies for Vietnam such as solutions to promote factors that increase competitiveness, banking stability and measures to control factors that negatively affect competitiveness and banking stability in the context of CPTPP integration.


SUMMARY OF THESIS


In the context that Vietnam signs the Agreement for Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), it will have a huge impact on the Vietnamese economy in general and on Vietnam's commercial banks in particular. The CPTPP Agreement is considered to be an agreement with a very high financial liberalization framework, the contents of the commitments are wide and wide, so it forces Vietnamese commercial banks to develop. improve competitiveness, strengthen measures to increase stability in the new situation. The thesis has given the research objective of determining the current operating status of Vietnamese commercial banks, comparing with other member countries in the CPTPP, measuring competitiveness, stability, trend and the impact level of the factors, thereby identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese commercial banks when joining CPTPP. Based on the research results, the thesis gives some suitable policy implications to increase competitiveness and enhance banking stability in the context of CPTPP integration.

By using data from 2010 - 2018 together with qualitative research methods such as description, meta-analysis, comparison and quantitative methods such as Lerner index method, Zscore index method, The thesis has tested the above method for 31 Vietnamese commercial banks. The results show that the competitiveness and stability of Vietnamese commercial banks are focused to increase in the last years. Factors such as size of equity, bank size, credit size, growth rate of total assets, diversification ability index, increase in total assets of foreign financial institutions In the domestic market, the inflation rate, GDP growth rate have a positive impact on the stability level and factors such as the rate of credit risk provision, the size of capital mobilization have negative effects. with stable banks. Factors such as the competitiveness of the previous year, the size of equity, the size of the bank, the size of the credit, the growth rate of total assets, the ability to diversify, increase the presence of foreign financial institutions in the domestic market, the inflation rate has a positive impact on competitiveness and factors such as credit risk reserve ratio, capital mobilization scale, growth rate GDP has a negative impact on banking competitiveness and stability. At the same time,


the thesis also shows that competitiveness has a positive impact on the level of banking stability, supporting the view of "competition - vulnerability".

Since then, the thesis has suggested suitable policies for Vietnam such as solutions to promote factors that increase competitiveness, the level of banking stability and solutions to control factors. factors that have a negative impact on banking competitiveness and stability in the context of CPTPP integration.

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