Overview of Banking Efficiency and Non-Traditional Banking Activities of Listed Commercial Banks in Vietnam in the Period of 2011 - 2019

As a result, the fractional CCR model (3.1) can be transformed into the following linear programming model, known as the multiplier form of the CCR model:

$

max,; f 9 (µ) = ^ µ 6 y 69

6Z[


Provided:


$


#

^ v T x T9 = 1

TZ[

#


(3.2)

^ µ 6 y 6` − ^ v T x T` ≤ 0, j = 1, … . , n

6Z[ TZ[

µ 6 ≥ ε, r = 1, … . . , s

v T ≥ ε, i = 1, … . . , m

The dual model of model (3.2) is widely known as the “envelope model form” of the CCR model, which has the following form:

$#

min g 9jj k , s " , s l) = θ 9 jj k − ε m^ s "+ ^ s l o

b cc d ,e,$ f ,$ g


Provided:

q

6

6Z[

T

TZ[

T

^ λ ` x T ` + s l= θ 9 jj k x T 9 , i = 1, … , m

`Z[

q

(3.3)

6

^ λ ` y 6` − s " = y 69

, r = 1, … , s

`Z[


λ `≥ 0, j = 1, … , ns " , s l≥ 0

6 T

0 < ε ≤ 1

The scalar θ 9 jjk , corresponds to the bank's TE o's efficiency score . For inefficient banks, the value of θ 9 jjk <1 represents the proportion of inputs that the bank could use to produce the current level of output, so 1- θ 9 jjk corresponds to the BANK's level of technical inefficiency o's. The value of θ 9 jjk is bounded by 0< θ 9 jjk ≤ 1 . Every

A non-zero value of λ ` indicates that an efficient bank is in the reference set of bank 'o'.

With the VRS assumption, the CCR model (3.3) becomes BCC:

$#

min g 9tj j , s " , s l ) = θ tj j − ε m^ s "+ ^ s l o

b sc c ,e,$ f ,$ g


Provided:

q

9 6

6Z[

T

TZ[

^ λ ` x T ` + s l= θ tj j x

T9 T9

`Z[

q

`Z[

λ ` y 6` − s " = y 69

6

q

^ λ `` = 1

`Z[

(3.4)

λ ` , s l , s "≥ 0

T 6

`Z[

The difference in the BCC model compared to the CCR is the convex constraintq λ ` = 1 about

essentially ensuring that an inefficient bank is only 'scored' against other banks.

`Z[

similar sized goods. Since the BCC model imposes an additional constraintq λ ` = 1 , the region

The feasibility of the BCC model is a subset of the CCR model. The relationship between the optimal objective values ​​of the CCR and BCC models is θ tjj ≥ θ jjk . Therefore, a bank is

9 9

It is assumed that the efficiency under the CCR model will also be efficient under the BCC model. The SE (Efficiency to Scale) measure for the 'o' bank can be calculated as the ratio of the measured efficiency

according to the CCR-I model with the efficiency measured according to the BCC-I model, i.e. θ jjktjj .

9 9

3.5.2. Regression method

According to Gujarati (2004), if the correlation coefficient between independent variables exceeds 0.8, there is a possibility of high multicollinearity in the model. Then the sign of the regression coefficient in the model may change, leading to incorrect research results. Therefore, before running the regression model, the thesis checks the correlation coefficient between independent variables in the model, and also checks whether there is multicollinearity by using the variance inflation factor (VIF). If the VIF coefficient of the variables is less than 10, multicollinearity is not a serious problem affecting the estimated results of the model (Gujarati 2004).

This study performed regression models using panel data estimation methods such as fixed effects and random effects. Then, the author used Hausman test to determine the appropriate estimation method. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation tests were also performed with the selected model.

In case these phenomena exist, the author will continue to estimate the model using the two-step System GMM (SGMM) method of Arellano & Bover (1995) and Blundell & Bond (1998). This method is commonly used in estimating linear dynamic panel data or panel data with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.

The estimates of the GMM method will be suitable for use in the following cases:

• Panel data with small T, large N (lots of observations with few time points)

• There is a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables.

• Dynamic models with one or both sides of the equation containing a delay variable

• The independent variables are not strictly exogenous, meaning that they may be correlated with the residuals (current or previous) or have endogenous variables in the model.

• There is a problem of heteroscedasticity or autocorrelation in measurement errors (idiosyncratic disturbances)

• Existence of individual fixed effects

• Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation exist within each subject (but not between subjects)

This research model is a dynamic model with a lagged dependent variable in the equation, which will cause endogeneity problems. In addition, due to the simultaneity in the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable (specifically between the non-traditional banking activity variable and the efficiency variable), the research model has an endogeneity problem. The endogeneity problem can cause biased estimates in the analysis. In addition, non-traditional banking activities can be affected by past, present and vice versa business performance. In other words, the causal relationship can be two-way and the non-traditional banking activity variables and business performance can be correlated with the error terms. Time-invariant bank-specific characteristics (fixed effects) can also be correlated with the errors. The presence of a lagged dependent variable in the model (spontaneous characteristics) can also cause autocorrelation. Furthermore, the study's data set covers a short time period (9 years) and relatively longer banking units (13 banks). Therefore, the study using the two-step SGMM of Arellano & Bover (1995) and Blundell & Bond (1998) is appropriate in this case.

SGMM is an efficient research method in previous studies. Blundell and Bond (1998) demonstrated that SGMM has smaller variance and is more efficient, thus improving the accuracy in the estimator. SGMM consists of a system of two equations according to Gurbuz (2013)

In which: Y: dependent variable X: independent variable δ: Unobservable factors

v: error

SGMM is used to address the endogeneity of some explanatory variables through instrumental variables. The efficiency of the estimation depends on the suitability of the instrumental variables. The Sargan test or Hansen test for over-identifying property allows to check the suitability of the instrumental variables. In theory, the Hansen test in 2-step estimation is considered more efficient than the Sargan test in 1-step estimation (Roodman, 2009). Therefore, the Hansen test is used to test the over-identification of the instrumental variables. This test determines whether there is a correlation between the instrumental variables and the residuals in the model or not by testing the hypothesis H 0 : the instrumental variables are suitable (satisfy the over-identifying condition). When accepting the hypothesis H 0 (p-value

> alpha) means that the instrumental variables used in the model are appropriate.

In addition, the quadratic autocorrelation (AR2) test is also an important test of the quadratic correlation of the residuals in the model. In the AR2 test, the hypothesis H 0 is tested : there is no quadratic correlation of the residuals. When the p-value is greater than alpha, we accept H 0 : the residuals of the model do not have the phenomenon of quadratic autocorrelation, meaning that the model meets the requirements.

Chapter 3 Summary


Based on the research of Akhigbe & Stevenson (2010) and previous studies, the model of non-traditional banking operations affecting banking efficiency at Vietnamese commercial banks is built with 7 research hypotheses. The model is as follows:

EFF it = α 0 + α 1 EFE it - 1 + β 1 (1)

In which, the dependent variable EFF measures bank efficiency.

With the aim of studying the factors affecting the performance of commercial banks, inheriting the research of Rogers & Sinkey (1999) and previous studies, this study builds a research model on the factors affecting the performance of commercial banks in Vietnam with 6 research hypotheses. The model is as follows:

NII it = α 0 + α 1 NII it-1 + β 1 NIM it + β 2 DEP it + β 3 ETA it + β 4 LLP it + β 5 BRANCH it + u it (2)

The study uses secondary data, which are audited financial statements of 13 Vietnamese commercial banks in the 9 years from 2011 to 2019, to calculate internal variables within the bank. Data for calculating external factors in the macro environment are collected from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The study uses the two-step SGMM (SystemGMM) of Arellano & Bover (1995).

and Blundell & Bond (1998) for complete estimates.

CHAPTER 4: EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1. General assessment of banking efficiency and non-traditional banking activities of listed commercial banks in Vietnam in the period 2011 - 2019

4.1.1. General assessment of effectiveness

The input of the DEA model is the input resources of a commercial bank such as: mobilized capital, labor, facilities, technical equipment quantified by 3 cost variables including: Interest payment cost (X1): includes interest payment cost and equivalents representing the capital factor in the input of joint stock commercial banking activities; Salary cost (X2): is the cost paid to employees representing the labor factor in the input of commercial banking activities; Other costs (X3): are non-interest costs excluding employee costs representing the equipment factor, technical facilities, etc.

The output of the DEA model includes 02 variables reflecting the business performance of a commercial bank: Interest income (Y1): is income from credit activities and equivalents; Non-interest income (Y2): includes service income and other operating income.

The DEA analysis results of the commercial banks in this study are presented in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1. DEA analysis results on technical efficiency of commercial banks



2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Medium

ACB

0.9061

0.9168

0.8673

0.8052

0.8413

0.8787

0.9401

0.8869

0.8502

0.8770

BIDV

0.8657

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9851

CTG

0.9475

0.9302

0.9377

0.9274

0.9475

0.8841

0.9516

0.9231

1.0000

0.9388

EIB

0.9503

1.0000

0.9507

0.8580

0.8591

0.8661

0.8328

0.7784

0.8275

0.8803

HDB

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

MBB

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9953

0.9557

1.0000

1.0000

0.9946

NCB

0.8443

0.8281

0.8890

0.9293

1.0000

0.8853

0.9395

0.8019

0.8986

0.8907

SHB

0.8867

0.9221

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9787

STB

0.9019

0.9185

0.9107

0.9121

0.8371

0.7423

0.8483

0.7801

0.7626

0.8460

TCB

0.9615

0.9157

0.8510

0.9048

0.9925

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9584

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Overview of Banking Efficiency and Non-Traditional Banking Activities of Listed Commercial Banks in Vietnam in the Period of 2011 - 2019


TPB

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9668

0.9983

0.9189

0.9537

0.8799

0.9522

0.9633

VCB

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9767

0.9957

1.0000

1.0000

0.9969

VPB

0.8335

0.9295

0.8675

0.8729

0.9314

1.0000

0.9356

1.0000

1.0000

0.9301

Source: analysis results from STATA 16 software

Figure 4.1. Technical efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks over the years


1.0000

0.9500

0.9000

0.8500

0.8000

0.7500

0.7000

2011

ACB SHB

2012 2013

BIDV STB

2014 2015

EIB TPB

2016

HDB VCB

2017

MBB VPB

2018

2019

CTG

TCB

NCB

Source: analysis results from STATA 16 software

It can be seen that in the period 2011 - 2019, the performance of Vietnamese commercial banks fluctuated continuously over the years. HDB's average TE is the highest among commercial banks in Vietnam, reaching a maximum of 1. In contrast, STB's average TE is the lowest, at 0.8460.

HDB's average SE is the highest among commercial banks in Vietnam, reaching a maximum of 1. In contrast, CTG's average SE is the lowest, at 0.9403.

Table 4.2. DEA statistical analysis results of Vietnamese commercial banks


Bank

Technical efficiency (TE)

Scale efficiency (SE)

Mean

Max

Min

Mean

Max

Min

ACB

0.8770

0.9401

0.8052

0.9725

0.9999

0.9108

BIDV

0.9851

1.0000

0.8657

0.9851

1.0000

0.8657

CTG

0.9388

1.0000

0.8841

0.9403

1.0000

0.8841

EIB

0.8803

1.0000

0.7784

0.9532

1.0000

0.8624

HDB

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

MBB

0.9946

1.0000

0.9557

0.9986

1.0000

0.9895

NCB

0.8907

1.0000

0.8019

0.8967

1.0000

0.8019

SHB

0.9787

1.0000

0.8867

0.9911

1.0000

0.9221

STB

0.8460

0.9185

0.7423

0.9915

0.9985

0.9771

TCB

0.9584

1.0000

0.8510

0.9911

1.0000

0.9615

TPB

0.9633

1.0000

0.8799

0.9633

1.0000

0.8799


VCB

0.9969

1.0000

0.9767

0.9969

1.0000

0.9767

VPB

0.9301

1.0000

0.8335

0.9975

1.0000

0.9913

Source: analysis results from STATA 16 software

4.1.2. General assessment of non-traditional banking activities

Non-traditional banking activities at Vietnamese commercial banks have developed quite diversely. In general, all banks fully implement the four basic groups of non-traditional banking activities. The first is the group of fee-based services including: payment, treasury, trust services, agency, consulting services, guarantees, cooperation services, insurance agencies, custody services, safekeeping services, other services such as services related to opening and managing accounts, deposit-related services, balance confirmation services, information retrieval, electronic banking, document copying, etc. It can be seen that this is the most diverse non-traditional activity in the group. The remaining groups include foreign exchange trading, securities trading and other activities.

It is noteworthy that the scale of NHPTT activities has been continuously improved over the years:

Figure 4.2. Proportion of non-interest income to total operating income of commercial banks from 2011 - 2019


100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

VCB

BIDV

CTG

TCB

VPB

MBB

EIB

HDB

TPB

STB

ACB

SHB

NCB

Source: Author's own synthesis from financial statements of banks Looking at the chart, we see that the group of leading banks VCB, BIDV and CTG have

stable growth but not much breakthrough. Meanwhile, banks such as TCB, VPB, MBB, IEB, STB and SHB all showed a clear growth trend in the 3 years 2017-2019. However, there are also banks that go against the general trend such as HDB with very good growth in the period 2012-2014 but then showed signs of decline. Similar to HDB is NCB, which grew well in 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 but declined in 2019.

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